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General US Market Update - HeatmapHeatmap SP500 ...looks quite red but is less concerning than one might think. The pullback after the giant gains last week did not come unexpected. Also, the low volume indicated that the big institutions are not in selling mode. All good signals for a continuation of the resumed uptrend. General Market Update Stock Market Pauses After 2 Big Days The stock market wavered Monday, taking a needed pause following the biggest two-day rally since 2008. The Nasdaq composite was down as much as 1.4% early in the day, but then bounced back. After spending part of the day in the black, the main indexes faded in late trading. The Nasdaq closed with a 1.1% loss. The S&P 500 fell 0.9% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.6%. But selling picked up in the last hour of the session and indexes closed at the day's lows. It was bearish action, although not a surprise. Stock Market Looks For Leadership While the major indexes are in confirmed uptrends, investors still need stocks to break out and make gains. In that regard, the picture is still mixed. The energy sector has been leading the market for much of the year and continues to provide opportunities. Remember, the bear market destroyed the leadership — much of it in tech — that led the prior bull market. Fresh leadership could take time to develop and prove itself. With the amount of breakouts and bases investors have to work with right now, an exposure level of 20% to 40% seems adequate.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by JS_TechTrading
Trading-Psychology: Fear & GreedFear & Greed Trading psychology is different for each trader, and it is influenced by the trader’s emotions and biases. The two main emotions that are likely to impact the success or failure of a trade are greed or fear. Greed is defined as the excessive desire for profits that could affect the rationality and judgment of a trader. A greed-inspired trade may involve buying stocks of untested companies because they are on the rise or buying shares of a company without understanding the underlying investment. Greed can also make a trader stay in a position for too long in an attempt to squeeze every event out of the trade. It is common at the end of a bull market when traders attempt to take on risky and speculative positions to profit from the market movements. On the other hand, fear is the opposite of greed and the reason why people exit a trade prematurely or refrain from taking on risky positions due to concerns of incurring losses. Fear makes investors act irrationally as they rush to exit the trade. It is common during bear markets, and it is characterized by significant selloffs from panic-selling. Fear and greed play an important role in a trader’s overall strategy and understanding how to control the emotions is essential in becoming a successful trader.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by JS_TechTrading
General US Market Update - HeatmapHeatmap SP500 ...looks quite red but is less concerning than one might think. The pullback after the giant gains last week did not come unexpected. Also, the low volume indicated that the big institutions are not in selling mode. All good signals for a continuation of the resumed uptrend. General Market Update Stock Market Pauses After 2 Big Days The stock market wavered Monday, taking a needed pause following the biggest two-day rally since 2008. The Nasdaq composite was down as much as 1.4% early in the day, but then bounced back. After spending part of the day in the black, the main indexes faded in late trading. The Nasdaq closed with a 1.1% loss. The S&P 500 fell 0.9% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.6%. But selling picked up in the last hour of the session and indexes closed at the day's lows. It was bearish action, although not a surprise. Stock Market Looks For Leadership While the major indexes are in confirmed uptrends, investors still need stocks to break out and make gains. In that regard, the picture is still mixed. The energy sector has been leading the market for much of the year and continues to provide opportunities. Remember, the bear market destroyed the leadership — much of it in tech — that led the prior bull market. Fresh leadership could take time to develop and prove itself. With the amount of breakouts and bases investors have to work with right now, an exposure level of 20% to 40% seems adequate.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by JS_TechTrading
2
US Stocks in the Spotlight: NOGNorthern Oil & Gas (NOG)broke out of a solid volatility contraction pattern on Nov 10th. A perfect buy point was established at the threshold of 36.3. Volume surged when shares broke out in September and have held above their 50-day line, despite high volatility since that time. The stock is on its way into new all time highs and still in a buy zone. NOG is the U.S.'s largest publicly traded non-operated oil and gas exploration and production company. It holds stakes in established oilfields in the Permian Basin in Texas and New Mexico, Williston in the Dakotas and Montana, and Marcellus in Pennsylvania. The Minneapolis-based investor typically buys stakes in oilfields and partners with seasoned operators.
NYSE:NOGLong
by JS_TechTrading
US Market Update: HeatmapHeatmap for the NASDAQ The Nasdaq Heatmap shows a mixed bag after the first half of the trading day today. Major stock market indexes traded mixed in the first half of Monday's session A Fed governor told traders and investors on Sunday to curb their enthusiasm after last week's spectacular price moves, fueled by a rotation out of 2022 winners, into all sorts of heavily shorted laggards. Volume fell sharply on the Nasdaq and the NYSE compared to Friday morning levels. Crypto sentiment took another dive over the weekend after bankrupt exchange FTX was hacked, draining what was called hundreds of millions of dollars from exchange wallets. Bitcoin posted its worst losses in five months last week and tested Wednesday's low overnight. Fed Governor Warns Investors Fed governor Christopher Waller warned on Sunday the central bank has "a ways to go" before rate hikes end. He scolded stock market investors, telling them last week's weaker-than-expected CPI report was just one data point. Waller agreed the Fed may slow the pace of rate hikes to 50 basis points at the December meeting but insists it would not constitute a change in fiscal policy. He also warned that Fed interest rates will keep rising and stay high until inflation drops to near the Fed's 2% target. Finally, he notes that CPI reports in coming months will need to show inflation "is on the downslope."
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by JS_TechTrading
Risk-Model for the US-MarketOur proprietary risk model for the US market changed to GREEN giving swing-traders a green signal to increase their exposure. Most technical indicators in our risk model improved versus last week and are now showing a green or al leaset a yellow light. Contrarian / psychological indicators like the bulls vs bear indicator are well in a range which would support a transition into a new bull market. Most importantly, the individual stocks on our watchlists and our model-portfolio acted well in course of last week and we could score some nice gains. We can now apply the concept of progressive exposure and increase our exposure on the back of our gains from last week. By doing that, we are always invested the most when things are working well for us, that means when our strategy is well fitted for the current market environment. Swing-traders can increase their exposure but still need to be aware of the risk around high volatility in the current market environment. While we could score some nice gains in course of last week, the market is still responding with a high volatility to relevant news. This is different in a stable and confirmed bull market uptrend in which you will only have some volatility around news updates.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by JS_TechTrading
US Market Update Heatmap NASDAQ for last week The heatmap for the Nasdaq for the last 5 trading days looks great. Many names could improve by more than 10% with only very few exceptions, TSLA being a big outlier last week. Overall a very promising week which could actually indicate that we are getting very close to the bottom of the current bear market. General Market Update The US stock market ended a powerful week in an optimistic mood, rallying into the close as the strong dollar fell. Investors look to be rotating into a more aggressive stance. The Nasdaq, which has been suffering severe losses in 2022 so far, performed best. It rose 1.9% for the day and ended with a weekly gain of over a giant 8%. Crucially, it is now back above the 50-day moving average. It remains down more than 28% for the year. The S&P 500 managed to squeeze out a gain of 0.9% Friday, raising the weekly total to nearly 6%. The 200-day moving average now looks in reach after it climbed away from its 50-day line. Blue chip stocks lagged the other major indexes following recent outperformance. Nevertheless, the Dow Jones Industrial Average still closed up 0.1% for the day and more than 4% for the week. Nike (NKE) and Walt Disney (DIS) were among the top performers. Volume was down on both the Nasdaq and the NYSE, no surprise given Thursday's massive volume. Breadth was solid in both exchanges, with advancers outnumbering decliners about 2-1. With many near-term hurdles cleared, the stock market looks to be in a good position to make the turn. However, swing-traders still have to expect increased volatility. Weakening Dollar The strong dollar has been a big headwind for the stock market, but signs of peak inflation have seen the currency fall in recent days. Friday's weakness in the U.S. Dollar index extended a move that began Thursday following lower-than-expected U.S. consumer inflation data. Many companies have seen their bottom lines hit due to expensive foreign exchange rates. If the dollar continues to weaken, it will conversely boost earnings for firms with foreign operations, bolstering their stock price.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by JS_TechTrading
JS-Masterclass: Sell Alerts / RulesJS-Masterclass #10: Sell Alerts / Sell Rules In recent tutorials, we have covered different techniques and ways to identify low-risk entry points. We have talked about the perfect buy points and several entry patterns. In this tutorial, we will discuss general rules for selling once we have entered a trade. Also, we will present a comprehensive list of warning signals which suggest to close a trade long before hitting the Stop-Loss. 1. Selling into strength By far the best option for a swing-trader is to sell into strength. You will feel like a hero once you have mastered this technique! Here are some guidelines for that: a) Sell if you have achieved a gain which is a multiple of your risk. The minimum gain before selling into strength should be 2x the risk. Consider selling half and moving stop on remaining position to breakeven. b) If your profit is more than your average gain and a multiple of your risk (generally 2-3x) consider trailing a stop or selling half and moving your stop up. You could also “backstop” your average gain or an amount you want to lock in. c) The stock is extended and opens up on a gap; consider selling at least half or trail a tight stop. 2. Selling into weakness a) The price hits pre-determined stop-loss – OUT… NO QUESTIONS! You will have to stick to this discipline before you will become a successful trader. b) The stock closes below 20-day moving average, below your purchase price soon after a breakout from volatility contraction pattern; reduce shares when you have 3-4 days of lower lows without supportive action on day 3-4. This increases the odds of a failure. c) Heavy selling with full retracement soon after low volume breakout. This is a bad signal – get out of the trade. d) Key reversal on heavy volume when stock is extended – sell at least half. 3. Sell Alerts Stocks will flash warning signals long before a big decline. Here are some to watch for: a) Accelerated rate of advance (parabolic “blow-off” price action) b) After extended move stock moves up 25-50% in 1-3 weeks (12 of 15 days up over 3 weeks) c) Largest up day since beginning of move (look for reversal or churning over the next 1-4 trading days). This could mean that the stock is in its final leg up and almost exhausted. d) Largest daily price spread since advance started e) Largest weekly price spread since beginning of advance f) Exhaustion gaps (after stock is extended – usually 2nd or 3rd gap ) g) New high on low volume which sometimes indicates the beginning of a phase 3 h) Heavy volume with little price progress (stalling action) i) Drop below the 50-day moving average line on the heaviest daily volume since beginning of move j) Largest one-day decline since beginning of move k) Largest weekly decline on huge volume l) Downwards action on large volume
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by JS_TechTrading
Perfect Buy Points: The Power PlayJS-Masterclass #9: Perfect Buy Points – The Power Play In the recent tutorials we have some patterns leading to a Perfect Buy Point (Volatility Contraction Patterns, IPO’s – The Primary base). In this tutorial we will cover the so called Power-Play. Characteristics of a Power-Play: 1. An explosive price move on huge volume; the stock shoots up 100% or more in less than 8 weeks. 2. The rapid price run-up could be induced by a major news development such as an FDA drug approval, litigation resolution, a new product or service announcement or even an earnings report, or on no news at all. 3. The stock price then moves sideways in a relatively tight range not correcting more than 20% over a period of 3- 6 weeks (some emerge after only 10 or 12 days). Here are some examples:
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by JS_TechTrading
Perfect Buy Points: IPO’s – The Primary BaseJS-Masterclass #8: Perfect Buy Points: IPO’s – The Primary Base When it comes to investing in IPO stocks, new issues don't play by the usual rules. Companies making initial public offerings draw a lot of investor attention. That often results in unusual and brand-new chart patterns. Volatility can rise as investors size up demand for the new stock. Yet there are opportunities in these cases, if you can spot the correct characteristics amid the price-and-volume action. The framework of a good IPO base is simple. The decline from peak to low usually doesn't top 20%, but the most volatile markets have produced declines of up to 50%. The length is often less than five weeks and can be as short as seven days. These two factors alone make IPO bases wayward cousins compared with proper bases, such as the cup with handle and flat base, which need at least five to seven weeks of work. In an IPO base, the pattern typically starts within 25 days of the stock's first day of trading. Know the important similarities with regular bases. For example, the buy point is drawn by taking the prior high and adding 10 cents. The price gain on the breakout should be strong. There are ways to evaluate these blind spots, however. Important factors include seeing a shallow correction within the base during normal market conditions, a large increase in price and a close near session highs on the breakout day, and heavy volume on the breakout day and week. Also, the stock should generally form the base above its IPO price. Example - ServiceNow (NOW) The business software company, went public in June 2012, at 18 a share and has built its primary base during the period from the initial offering to April 2013 when the stock developed its first perfect buy point.
NYSE:NOWEducation
by JS_TechTrading