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Daily Bias - JSE ALSI 40 - BULLISHWe ended the week on an awful note with resources dropping over 4%, with gaps down and with sudden breakaway trends. Looking at the bigger picture of the ALSI 40, we still remain with Bullish Bias. 7>21>200 RSI>50 And we seem to be making a Falling Flag, which needs to break up. Also with SMC, it's early days but we have the first level of liquidity (Sell Side Liquidity) where hopefully Smart Money has come swept the sellers with Long traders stopped and Shorters (entered). Them sweeping the Sell Side Liquidity is buying into it pushing the price up. We remain with a buying side bias for the week.
JSE:J200Long
by Timonrosso
4 Ways to ACTION a trade - WHEN TO FIRE!You know that successful trading is… . . . . Patience. You need to wait for the setup, reason, system, lining etc… But then there is the 2% time where you actually ACTION a trade. We action a trade for three reasons. To enter To adjust To get out But we need to talk about these reasons more… Let’s do it., ACTION #1: Trade lines up – JUST TAKE THE TRADE! When your trading signal lines up with your entry, stop loss, take profit, and system: This is the most obvious time to take action. It tells you “HELLO AN OPPORTUNITY HS ARISEN” It is crucial to act quickly and decisively when this happens, as opportunities in the market can disappear just as quickly as they appear. ACTION #2: Adjust your levels – JUST CHANGE THE TRADE There are two levels you can adjust with your trades. Stop loss and Take profit. When the market is moving in your favour, and you have solid rules to move your stop loss in the favour. This is done to lock in minimum gains. For example. When my trade is 1:1 in the money, I might move my stop loss to just above breakeven. This way I have nothing to lose if it turns against me. Then when the market is shooting in your favour, you might want to adjust the take profit. This is because you can see the market wants to move further or… There is a new setup with a new take profit level in place – which happens often with my analyses. Action #3: Execute the time stop loss – JUST GET OUT When an extended period has taken place i.e. 35 days or 7 weeks. You might want to just get out of the boring trade. You are either : • Chowing (eating away at) unnecessary daily costs holding a non performing trade. • A trade setup seems null and void as a new contrary setup as formed. • Or it’s just a plain old opportunity cost where you can put your money in better places. it may be necessary to exit the trade in order to avoid incurring too much in daily fees or missing out on other better opportunities. Action #4: Exit due to unforeseen circumstances- SERIOUSLY JUST GET OUT! For example when a black swan event occurs: A black swan event is a term used to describe a market collapse (10X the standard deviationof its normal price move) that is unexpected and has a significant impact on the market. In the event of a black swan event, it is essential to exit your trade in order to protect your capital and avoid taking a bigger loss than you expected.
TVC:SA40Education
by Timonrosso
What just happened to Richemont? 911%!REMINDER: Compagnie Financière Richemont (CFR) is a Swiss luxury goods company that has a subsidiary in South Africa. The subsidiary's depositary receipts and warrant receipts were previously listed and traded on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE). However, starting from April 19th, 2023, these financial instruments will be suspended from trading on the JSE and relevant A shares and relevant A warrants will instead be listed on the exchange. Hold your horses! The 912% increase in Compagnie Financière Richemont (CFR) share price likely resulted from the conversion of financial instruments related to the company's South African subsidiary. The company announced a deadline for the conversion of depositary receipts and warrant receipts, which resulted in the suspension of trading on the Johannesburg stock exchange and the listing of relevant shares and warrants on the exchange. This process likely had a positive impact on the company's share price and resulted in the significant increase.
JSE:CFREducation
by Timonrosso
1
Truworths showing downside to R40.21 thanks to Rev Inv C&HReverse Inverse Cup and Handle formed over the last few months. Then there was a Rising Flag formation, which is a consolidation period before further downside. We need the price to break below, to get a stronger sell signal to the downside. MAs = mixed RSI<50 Target R40.21 SMC Buy Side Liquidity (Order Block) formed at the TOP of the handle of the Cup. This is where Long traders Bought at these levels, this is where Short Sellers got stopped (had to rebuy). And Smart money came in and swept the buying and sold into it - which pushed the price down. So I'm quite confident the bias overall is down.
JSE:TRUShort
by Timonrosso
Dischem showing strong upside to R30.24 Cup and handle formed on the daily. We need price to break above and close above the brim level to confirm upside to come. 7>21 bullish Price<200 but likely to head up to equilibrium. RSI>50 Bullish Target R30.24 SMC SSL (Order block) ABOUT THE COMPANY Dis-Chem was founded in 1978 by Ivan Saltzman and his wife, Lynette. The first Dis-Chem store was located in Mondeor, a suburb in Johannesburg, South Africa. Dis-Chem is currently one of the largest pharmacy chains in South Africa with over 180 stores nationwide. The company is headquartered in Midrand, South Africa. Dis-Chem employs over 18,000 people. The company offers a range of products and services, including pharmaceuticals, health supplements, beauty products, and baby care items. In addition to its retail stores, Dis-Chem also operates several clinics that offer various health services, including blood tests, vaccinations, and basic health screenings. Dis-Chem has its own private label range of products, including vitamins, supplements, and skincare products.
JSE:DCPLong
by Timonrosso
Capitec showing strong upside since break in downtrend to R2040Cup and Handle formed on Capitec since it broke above the Downtrend. Now that the price is above the brim level shows strong momentum up. Indicators also confirm upside 7>21 Price<200 but moving back to it's elastic equilibrium level RSI>50 Target R2040.00 ABOUT THE COMPANY Capitec was founded in 2001 and is headquartered in Stellenbosch, South Africa. The bank has over 15 million clients as of 2023, making it the third-largest bank in South Africa by number of customers. Capitec offers a range of banking products, including savings accounts, personal loans, credit cards, and insurance. The bank is known for its simplified and transparent fee structure, which includes low transaction fees and no hidden costs. Capitec uses advanced technology to provide its customers with a seamless and convenient banking experience. The bank has a mobile app that allows customers to manage their accounts, transfer funds, and pay bills.
JSE:CPILong
by Timonrosso
TFG showing a ton of buying signals to R112.02 Bullish Scallop formed recently on TFG. This coincides with a breakout to the upside from the continuous downtrend. Now that we have had a break above both, shows momentum is setting itself for more upside. Other indicators confirm upside to come. 7>21 MA Price<200 RSI >50 Target R112.02 SMC Bearish FVG formed (Arrow) this is where two candles prices do not overlap with the big ones... This means, we can expect the market to move up to rebalance and achieve equilibrium (Filling the gap). Also below the Scallop formation is a Sell Side LIquidity Order Block. Smart Monet is sweeping the selling and buying into it, pushing the price up. This is a good probability trade to go long.
JSE:TFGLong
by Timonrosso
JSE ALMI Take profit hit at 72,600 next trade is imminentInv Head and Shoulders formed on the 15 minute chart. We had an evidential Sell Side Liquidity Order block form around the Right Shoulder. This is where the price broke structure and we entered with our TP1 hitting 72,600. Next we have another setup preparing. We need the price to come back down to the most recent Sell Side Liquidity Order Block. sweep liquidity, turn up and break out of the downtrend . That's where we'll get our next Buy level around 72240. But I'll let you know as always!
JSE:J200Long
by Timonrosso
TAKE PROFIT HIt - JSE ALMI at 72,603 in 2 daysWe got in on Thursday 6 April 2023 at 71,540. This was based on an Inverse Head and Shoulders formation along with an Order Block of buying from smart money in two different places. Then there was a public holiday on Friday 7 April then it was the weekend and then another Pubic Holiday on 10 April.... Technically, we've only been holding this trade for 2 days. SMC The price came back down swept Sell Side Liquidity and then the buying really kicked in on Tuesday getting us out at 72,603. Nice quick gain and waiting for the next setup.
JSE:J200Long
by Timonrosso
TRADE UPDATE: Renergen in the money and now we wait for a breakRev Inv Cup and Handle formed on Renergen. The price then broke below the Brim Level showing strong selling side to come. Also on the Daily there is now a Symmetrical Triangle pattern When the price breaks it's likely to continue to the downside as the pattern si a continuation pattern by nature. We saw strong downside to come from an even larger bearish formation on the weekly chart. 200>21>7 RSI<50 Target remains R12.52 ABOUT THE COMPANY Renergen is a South African based energy company that specializes in the production and distribution of natural gas. The company was founded in 2011 and is headquartered in Johannesburg, South Africa. Renergen's main focus is on the production of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from its flagship project, the Virginia Gas Project, located in the Free State Province of South Africa. The company is the first and only company in South Africa to hold a resource license for the commercial production of natural gas. Renergen's Virginia Gas Project is estimated to have over 40 years of reserves of natural gas, making it one of the largest gas reserves in the country. The company's liquefaction plant is designed to produce up to 20 million cubic meters of LNG per annum, making it one of the largest LNG plants in Africa.
JSE:RENShort
by Timonrosso
MR Price wants to go back to 200MA to potentially R177.42 SMCBreak above downtrend has occurred for the first time since 2022... This isn't a breakout pattern that I normally look at, but it's still a breakout move. Price<200MA (elastic) This means, the price has a likelihood of moving up to the 200MA (Equilibrium) to take out the inefficiency. Target R177.42 BREAKAWAY GAP formed in December, and since then the price has been coming down. Now that the orders have balanced at the "bottom" means, we could see a gap fill soon. SMC: Sell Side Liquidity Order Block this is where there is Buying from Smart Money. Hence there was a strong move up. I'm cautiously bullish with Mr Price.
JSE:MRPLong
by Timonrosso
Merafe in a Range Bounded area - Neutral outlook until breakRange bounded has been the overall trend for Merafe. It seems like there is just a fight between the bulls and the bears. We can only assume the price is most likely to break up due to the previous momentum. I will only wait for a break above or below the range before acting upon. MAs are all close confirming the sideways movement. SMC: There needs to be a break above the Buy Side LIquidity in order for the bulls to really take over. But right now it's a selling zone for Smart Money which goes hand in hand with the range box.
JSE:MRF
by Timonrosso
EXPLAINED: A Bullish Fair Value Gap (FVG) - Smart Money ConceptsA Bullish Fair Value Gap is a 3 candle structure with an up impulse candle (2nd) that indicates and creates an imbalance or an inefficiency in the market. WHAT DO THE IMBALANCES TELL US? These imbalances tell us that the buying and selling is not equal. Now the market needs to rebalance (move at least to 50% of the fair value gap to fill) to make up for the imbalance and rebalance. For this to happen we need to see orders filled in the prices of the candle with the FVG. HOW A BULLISH FAIR VALUE GAP IS CONSTRUCTED: 1st Candle Draw a horizontal line from the top of the wick. 3rd Candle Draw a horizontal line from the bottom of the wick 2nd Candle Draw a BOX between the above and below and pull it over to see the FVG range. BETWEEN CANDLE 1 and CANDLE 3: Do NOT show common prices. They do NOT touch where the upper & the lower wicks do NOT overlap. With a Bullish FVG we can expect the market price to move DOWN. HOW MUCH? I believe a Bullish FVG needs to close at least 50%. So you can drag a Gann Box or a Fib retracement (take out all the other levels except 50%). Wait for the price to close and fill the prices and boom - Your Bullish Fair Value Gap has been filled. Let me know if you have any other SMC (Smart Money Concepts) Questions.
JSE:BVTEducation
by Timonrosso
Transaction Capital can go either way but WARNING This was one where people thought I was crazy for choosing a target so low to R26.46. The day it hit, I was I guess not surprised but saddened because the company has so much potential and strong prospects Wake up just one day later and it's down to R13.76. This could be a great buy area where it could rally on back. But as a trader, I need more upside potential with strong momentum. This price could be a rising pennant which could drop down to a new low. However, if the price breaks up it could very well head back up and close the gap. I would be careful with this type of trade and so I'll be a spectator for now.
JSE:TCP
by Timonrosso
6