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JSE ALSI 40 is a mess - Bearish bias to 63,460Yep, the JSE ALSI 40 is in yet another Twilight Zone. We see sideways motion, prior downtrend and there are sideways indicators. The bearish bias part of it is that price is below 200MA. The RSI is showing lower highs (Bearish divergence). We also see low volume on the buying side. More importantly, we have a flat monday with no conviction... And if the price does break below the Symmetrical Triangle, we could see downside in the week. The target could be very well to 63,460. Here is your weekly wrap up. The U.S. stock markets mostly closed higher, with a significant highlight being the S&P 500 surpassing the 5,000-point level for the first time. The growth was driven primarily by big tech companies and a variety of sectors including software, semiconductors, communications, media, regional banks, trucking, apparel retailers, auto suppliers, and Chinese tech stocks showing notable performance. Conversely, sectors such as real estate, energy, food & beverage, cruise lines, and casual diners lagged behind. Microsoft stood out by achieving a 1.6% rise in its shares, which boosted its market capitalization to $3.125 trillion, marking the highest valuation ever for an American company. Additionally, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note closed at 4.166%. In europe: In Europe, equity markets ended the day lower, with technology, media, and healthcare sectors leading the gains, while food & beverage, real estate, and utilities faced declines. General indices: Market performance indices closed as follows: S&P 500 up by 0.57%, Dow Jones Industrial Average down by 0.14%, Nasdaq up by 1.25%, FTSE 100 down by 0.30%, DAX down by 0.22%, and CAC 40 down by 0.24%. Asian markets Asian equity markets saw minimal activity, with most closed for the Lunar New Year holidays. However, there was a notable increase in holiday travel activity, with Xinhua reporting the addition of 1,873 passenger trains across the railway network on Friday. Markets such as Nikkei, Hang Seng, and Shanghai were closed, while the ASX 200 saw a modest increase of 0.19%. In South Africa In South Africa, the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) closed lower, primarily dragged down by the resources sector, which fell by more than 2% due to weaker metals prices. The precious metals and mining sector saw a decrease of 2.22%, although industrials managed a modest gain, supported by solid performances from companies like Bidvest, Naspers, and Richemont. The yield on the 10-year government bond closed at 9.955%. Thank you for reading and enjoying the daily wrap up and analyses we provide to Trading View for you!
JSE:J200Short
by Timonrosso
Worship the 200MA with the JSE ALSI 40 - But we will break up!The JSE ALSI 40 once again tested the 200MA. It then retreated back with its tail between its legs. However, the drop has not been aggressive and big. So we can make an assumption that this is a current dip that will cause a rounding bottom. If this is true, it will complete a Cup and Handle formation. And when the price breaks above the brim level we could see 80,000 on the cards. With the Santa Claus rally and positive sentiment with the interest rate hikes being halted in the US and the weakening dollar - It looks like we will continue to see its rally. Happy to be in the markets during this time. But if there is ONE lesson to take in, worship the 200MA to determine the CURRENT trend. Break above 200MA and it's a slay up from there.
JSE:J200Long
by Timonrosso
1
Tough year for JSE ALSI Positions TradersIt's been a very tough year for swing traders. Go long the market drops. Go short the market rallies. Don't do anything and you save from the burn. But in the bigger scheme of things, it looks like we are in an accumulation phase. The accumulation phase is a period in which smart money (informed and experienced traders or institutional investors) is believed to be accumulating a particular asset while it is still relatively undervalued. This phase occurs before a notable uptrend or bullish move in the market. Key characteristics of the accumulation phase include: Sideways Movement: Prices move within a trading range, often forming a base or a consolidation pattern. The range represents a period of equilibrium between buying and selling forces. You can see the JSE ALSI has been in a tight range this entire year. Decreasing Volume: Volume tends to decline during the accumulation phase, indicating a decrease in overall market activity. Lower volume signals that the asset is not attracting significant attention from the broader market. There have not been huge orders on the JSE ALSI like other years. It could be because there are LESS investors buying shares and more going into derivatives and margin trading. Or because they are worried about the state of the economy with load shedding, foreign direct investments pulling out, the country being rated down or people fleeing the country. Smart Money Accumulation: Informed traders or institutional investors quietly accumulate the asset during this phase. Their accumulation is not typically evident in the overall market activity due to the relatively low volume. Now with December, we could see investors piling into trades from their bonuses, offsetting taxes, preparing for the next year or with optimism with the festive season. Transition to Markup Phase: After a sufficient accumulation, there is an expectation that the asset's price will break out of the trading range. This breakout marks the end of the accumulation phase and the beginning of the markup phase, characterized by a sustained uptrend. So, my hopes and bets are UP. I think once we break out above the range, we could see the JSE ALSI rally a good 10 -20%. But geez, we need strong catalysts to kick in. Even if it's international markets helping us run up with Dual LIsted companies or America's leading influence. WHat are your thoughts? You think we'll get our long waited for rally? Traders and investors who stay in the game will reap the rewards. Patience is a traders virtue. Impatience is the reason why traders quit. They don't FAIL - THEY QUIT. Until then trade well... T
JSE:J200Long
by Timonrosso
UPDATE: JSE ALSI 40 - A break in price is imminentHere is the update with the ALSI 40... It seems to be in a tighter range with the resistance (short term downside) and the support from the Symmetrical Triangle since Dec 2022. We will be watching these levels carefully and will look to hedge positions as we are heavily short at the moment. At first glance, it shows that the price action is indeed more bearish right now with the resistance line in tact. And as there has been a bounce already, we might see a bit of consolidation before the next big move. We'll be watching the Americas as well, to help give some type of leading direction... Happy Monday and trade well.
TVC:SA40
by Timonrosso
JSE ALSI Broken below 200MA first time since Nov 2022Symmetrical Triangle formed on ALSI and the darn price has just been moving within it for months on end. Any JSE short term trader is most likely struggling with the whipsaws. If one is not diversified in Forex or Indices - I don't know how they are making an income this year. Regardless, the price has broken below the triangle and below the 200MA for the first time since Nov 2022. We are seeing bearish signs continue including: 21>7 Price<200 RSI<50 Target 1 will be 60,000. WARNINGS: KNowing the ALSI it could most likely cause another fake-out (haha fooled you) trick again. And the price will go right back into the triangle. The world is showing more bearish signals but as you know things can change SO quickly with the market. Medium term I'm short until further notice.
TVC:SA40Short
by Timonrosso
Where is this damn JSE going - I hope UP! - Here's why. Your guess is as good as mine. One day we are up another is down. One week is up, one month is sideways. This is NOT conducive for trending markets. This is NOT conducive for breakout traders. This is not conducive for momentum traders. So we need to wait for a breakout to have a better idea on where it wants to go. Right now I'm long 8 stocks and short 6 stocks on the JSE. So yes, hedging is crucial during these times. Also, one needs to hedge with Forex, indices maybe even international markets. It's the only way to have more control of our portfolios and to diversify markets better. So which way is it going. No matter what, I always prefer the market to move up. I prefer for the optimistic approach where companies are doing well, South Africa is doing well and investors are doing well. Even though I could be stopped with all shorts, I honestly don't care. I care about the wellbeing of the country and the JSE. I don't normally rant with analyses, but this is a clear example of where we as traders, have no idea where the market is likely to head.
TVC:SA40
by Timonrosso
2
JSE ALSI Setting itself for upside? Maybe we don't sell in May?!JSE ALSI 40 - Cup and Handle seems to be forming on the ALSI 40, We need to wait for a breakout to the upside. Price >200MA RSI>50 Target 79,178 I prefer banking money when markets go up than down. So this might be the saviour for May with the JSE ALSI! SMC: We have a Sell Side LIquidity area below the new Handle. This is where Smart Money has come and swept through selling (Long traders stop losses) and (Short traders entries). They have bought into these orders, which is pushing the price up. Super bullish signs from the big boys.
JSE:J200Long
by Timonrosso
2
Shoprite showing strong downside to come to R177.11Head and Shoulders has formed on Shoprite and the price has broken below the neckline. 200>21>7 - Bearish RSI<50 Target R177.11 CONCERNS: I don't like shorting strong companies generally especially when the JSE ALSI 40 is on a strong uptrend. Revenue growth is up 17.20% Net income Growth is up 14.70% Average annual Revenue growth (15yr) up 11.08% Net Margin is 3% but ROE is -24.97%. So it's unusual to see downside for this retail giant. But anyways, charts are charts and we have a plan in place.
JSE:SHPShort
by Timonrosso
Sasol setting itself for great upside to R339.45W Formation is forming on Sasol. We are seeing the downtrend slow down in momentum, and it looks like the price wants to break up and out of the down trend. This is a bit premature for a breakout trader, but it's still good to watch and prepare for. We have other indicators that still show downside (but potentially changing trend) 200<21<7 - Bearish RSI <50 Target R339.45 Wait for breakout first then it's full steam ahead to the upside.
JSE:SOLLong
by Timonrosso
Anglo American PLatinum setting for upside potential to R1,644Potential Cup and Handle is forming on the daily. We are seeing higher lows form and the supply side is dwindling. Once we get a break above the brim level, it'll be all systems go. 7>21 Price <200 - Bearish RSI>50 -bullish Target R1,644.61 SMC: Sell Side Liquidity order block has formed below the formation. Each time the price touches, it runs up. That's because Smart Money comes in sweeps the selling from (Shorters) and long traders who gets stopped. They buy into the orders, which push the price up. This gives bullish bias.
JSE:AMSLong
by Timonrosso
What just happened to Richemont? 911%!REMINDER: Compagnie Financière Richemont (CFR) is a Swiss luxury goods company that has a subsidiary in South Africa. The subsidiary's depositary receipts and warrant receipts were previously listed and traded on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE). However, starting from April 19th, 2023, these financial instruments will be suspended from trading on the JSE and relevant A shares and relevant A warrants will instead be listed on the exchange. Hold your horses! The 912% increase in Compagnie Financière Richemont (CFR) share price likely resulted from the conversion of financial instruments related to the company's South African subsidiary. The company announced a deadline for the conversion of depositary receipts and warrant receipts, which resulted in the suspension of trading on the Johannesburg stock exchange and the listing of relevant shares and warrants on the exchange. This process likely had a positive impact on the company's share price and resulted in the significant increase.
JSE:CFREducation
by Timonrosso
1
Absa showing downside to R135.00 - SMC also appliedPATTERNS: Absa is forming one of the two Either an Reverse Inverse Cup and Handle . Now price is broken below the handle, the chance is that it'll head to R135.60. Or it's forming a head and shoulders where the Right Shoulder is now ready to form (upside) then downside to the target. 21>7 - Bearish Price<200 Bearish RSI<40 - Bearish SMC: We can see a Bearish Fair Value Gap has formed. This is where the 1st and 3rd candle does NOT overlap in price. The market now will want to rebalance and move up into the gap to fill the orders before it comes down. Hence, this is when the Right Shoulder will form. If the price goes back up it'll give a short term BUY SMC to R185.00 If the price continues down then the target will be R135.60. Regardless, the overall trend and bias is down in the medium term.
JSE:ABGShort
by Timonrosso
MTN neutral stand with a bullish bias with to R157.65 -Confused?Box Formation formed on MTN and the Prev. trend up We need the price to break either ABOVE or BELOW the formation before I make any decisions. The funny thing about MTN is how consistent the sideways moves have been for decades. It has a personality of its own and is only something you pick up after being in the markets for a few decades. Anyway, I like to think my bias is bullish but the signals are mixed. 21>7 price>200 - Mixed RSI<50 - Bearish Bias bullish target R157.65 ABOUT MTN Group Limited (over R200 billion market cap) is a multinational telecommunications company headquartered in Johannesburg, South Africa. The company was founded in 1994 and has operations in over 20 countries in Africa, Asia, and the Middle East. MTN is the largest mobile network operator in Africa, with over 280 million subscribers The company offers a wide range of telecommunications services, including voice and data services, mobile money, and digital services. In addition to its mobile network operations, MTN has also invested in a number of other business ventures, including e-commerce, fintech, and energy services.
JSE:MTN
by Timonrosso
1
Retracement complete, next move incomingThe JSE ALSI looks like it has completed its retracement and is now ready for the leg upwards. The three signals below are showing the the index is oversold. The next move should break the 70 000 -71 000 mark. That's an upside of 7.3% - 8.6% if everything goes according to the chart and trading signals. Lets wait and see :) Please like and follow for daily posts on various asset classes. Please also share your views on the trading ideas and whether or not you find them to be of any value to you as a trader. Please note, this idea is shared for educational and discussion purposes only and should not result in speculative investment decisions in any asset class.
JLong
by JesseMorgans