Jsetop40
VODACOM (VOD) DAILY TIMEFRAME LONGNever has there been so many multiple confluences on a single chart as this one. Firstly, price formed a head and shoulders pattern on the weekly chart, and tumbled down after the completion of the right shoulder and breach of the price below the the neckline. Secondly, prices have managed to stay under the neckline, which was a key psychological level at 14 000. You know how crazy people can be around round numbers. Also, the price is moving in a steady downtrend as depicted by the lower lows and lower highs and the descending trendline unmasks this. Price is now around the 12 000 key psychological area and the lower timeframes already show a rejection in the form of a bearish candle. I expect prices to continue going down. A fail-safe would be to wait for prices to approach the descending trendline and opening short position once clear signs are given.
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MTN DAILY TIMEFRAME LONGThis stock recently broke out of a descending trendline,and is currently retesting either the trendline itself or a support zone. I am of the opinion that t his stock will resume going up once enough buyers enter the market. Traders can possibly look to enter a long position at the 9 615 level, which rep [resents a support level.
TELKOM (TKG) 4-HOUR TIMEFRAME LONGIt is shocking to see a stock soaring in an economy plagued with state capture scandals, corruption, uncertainty and all things junk. Notwithstanding the fact that i love South Africa, it is sadly true that most stocks on the JSE stock exchange are in bear market territory. Hence the shock i had when i opened this chart.
I expect prices to move up as they continue the healthy uptrend. The exponential nature of this trend makes it difficult to ride it. It is like trying to jump onto a speeding bullet train. Anyway, i would consider the 8 200 level as a possible support area where buyers can enter into new positions. It is important to note that the price might possibly form a right shoulder to complete a tête et épaules (head and shoulders) pattern, causing the price to plummet towards the trendline. However, the long term bias is still long. I guess the bulls needed a break so to them!
Buy opportunity on South African stocks.The market is approaching the 48,940 Support. 1M is supported there (RSI = 52.867, MACD = 574.500, Highs/Lows = 0.0000) and the current dip is a solid medium term buy opportunity. Assuming that a roughly -2% Lower High sequence will be maintained we place the next medium term target at 52,200.
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JSE:J200 Top40 Waiting for the ElectionThe Top40 has had a great run since the start of the year. On the way up there were two occasions when institutional supply entered the market (seen by the high volume) but was unable to stop the advance. Now the market has reached the highs were previous institutional supply occurred. However, the volume has declined in the leadup to the elections. Trading volume can be expected to be low until the elections are over and the market can decide a direction. Something to note is that the RSI has made a negative reversal and once volume returns to the market we could have a volatile decline.
AFRICAN RAINBOW MINERALS (ARI) DAILY TIMEFRAME NEUTRALThe price for ARI is moving in an ascending channel on the weekly and daily timeframe. The share price is now at the top of the ascending channel, which represents a critical resistance level. If prices find support at the 17 000 psychological level or the inner trendline, then we can expect prices to continue further with the bullish move. However, if prices break below the inner trendline, we can expect some selling pressure as the price would be making a corrective move before resuming the bullish momentum.
If traders enter short on this one, they must open smaller positions as the market is clearly bullish. And then again, what do they say about trends? "Failing to respect the trend might leave you without a cent!!!"
BIDVEST GROUP LIMITED (BVT) 4-HOUR TIMEFRAMEPrice is currently stuck in a small range with support at 18 300 and resistance at 21 920. This will be a risky trade (not that there is no trade without risk) because we will be going against the trend. However, the risk reward of 4.33 gives me the confidence to still take on this position. My entry will be at 21 550. Break a chart!
OLD MUTUAL LIMITED (OMU) DAILY TIMEFRAME SHORTPrice is moving in a range on the daily timeframe, with the support level at 2 120 and a resistance level at 2 370. Though it is possible that price may move further up to close the massive gap on this stock, it is my belief that prices are going to continue further down due to a cluster of orders that are sitting at or above the resistance level. The daily timeframe already shows two bearish candles that have formed indicating the presence (but not the dominance) of sellers. One of the two is actually engulfing previous bullish candles.
Here is my entry for this trade:
Entry: 2 300
Stop Loss: 2 400
Take-profit: 2 120
Risk-Reward: 1:1,80
BRITISH AMERICAN TOBACCO (BTI) 4-HOUR TIMEFRAME SHORT The share price for British American Tobacco (BTI) has been moving in a descending channel on the daily timframe, as evidenced by lower highs and lower lows. The price has just broke out of a corrective ascending channel (counter trend) on the 4-hour timeframe and came back to retest the previous-support-turned-resistance at the price level of 57730. I expect prices to trickle down further, if they do not create higher highs and higher lows, and the possible targets are:
Target 1: 50 720
Target 2: 43 856
$JSE-CLSJSE:CLS
Another big move after results.
Breaking above long consolidation,
FT 20000
ST 20500
PIONEER FOODS 4-HOUR TIMEFRAME LONGEver since price hit highs of 21550 in October 2015, it has been tumbling down and lately price are finding some support, possibly to start a new uptrend. However, this would only be confirmed if prices can close above the resistance zone and possibly retest that level and continue higher. Any buy setups now would be done in a range and it will be up to the trader to assess if they can stomach that.
JSE:J200 Top40 Divergence with Number of Stocks above 50 & 200MAConsidering the number of stocks above the 50 and 200 daily MA we have seen a divergence with price. Price is making new highs but the number of stock above the MAs are decreasing. This indicates some weakness developing in the market and potentially and need to watch for reversal at resistance.
$JSE-MNDJSE:MND
Made small head and shoulders and broke bellow neck line.
Target is about 10% lower around low from 29000-30000 zone.
JSE:J200 Top40 at the Top of the 'Trading RangeOn the daily timeframe (TF) following the Wyckoff logic, there was a change of character that formed a Trading Range (TR) with the Selling Climax (SC) and Automatic Rally (AR). This is at the bottom of a larger TR on the weekly TF (See post below). After a Secondary Test (ST) of the lows, the price is testing the top of the TR again. This is also the 2019 Yearly Pivot Point and 200Day MA. We are now in Phase B and expect a contraction in volume and a test of the lows in Phase B before we can look for Phase C and a move out of the range. Negative divergence on the TDI (RSI) also indicates a possible move down.
JSE:J200 JSE Looking Like DistributionThe range in the JSE Top40 index that started in April 2015 seems to be a distribution range. Following the Wyckoff logic, we could have seen an Upthrust After Distribution (UTAD) and test at the highs at the end of 2017 / beginning of 2018. Now we see an increase in the spread to the downside of 8 to 11 to 12 to 19% indicating a bearish Change of Character (CoC)Using the total sum of volume for Top 40 stocks there is also an increase in volume during these moves to the downside indicating that stocks have been transferred from strong to week hands. Since the last down move, we have seen a week attempt to rally. My bias for 2019 is that the Top 40 could see a resolution of the trading range to the downside. How the current potential Last Point of Supply acts (LPSY) in the new year will clarify if a markdown is about to begin. If the distribution is confirmed I will be looking for laggards in the Industrial sector which is currently the weakest sector to trade (see the previous comparison of sectors in the links below).
Resource Still Showing StrengthSince 2016 the JSE has been declining relative to the S&P 500 but December has shown a change in character with the JSE consolidating while the S&P 500 declined. The Resources sector has been leading the charge and trading in a strong upward channel. In December the resource has reacted to the demand line and is showing strength going into 2019. Resources are further the only sector above its January 2018 high.
