SPY Analysis SPY 65m: An acute SPY study shared with peers was used to example the weekly movement of SPY. SPY vs ES was used as a benchmark for S&P Cash Index due to intraday activity (as of recent). Using the 65m horizon, key inflection points were identified using market structure and regression analysis.
Session highs for the index ending the week and quarter and marking a new yearly high with current price for SPY trading at 443.28 at the end of session. With July historically associated as a risk on period for the market, longer term bias for neutral-bullish remains (please seek 6WK study for ES1).
Forward looking (on acute horizon), fibonacci analysis was applied to current structure being developed during price rediscovery and confidence of character being developed where key levels are: 444.30 (HOD), 443.99, 443.62, *443.09*, *442.71*, 441.91, 441.11
*Prices of higher interest using fibonacci application
Bias: Neutral to risk on
ATR: 4.27
Price at time of publish: 443.28 (amc)
July2023
SPY: FLUSH OR RALLY / MARKET BREADTH / MARKET MAKERS TIMINGDescription: In the chart above I have provided a semi-macro analysis of SPY that compares ongoing market rally and past rallies within the range of 420 & 360 Points.
Points:
1. Price Action is fast approaching 420 Resistance that has been indicative of a turn around for past 4 rallies that failed to break the 420 LEVEL.
2. First 2 rallies under the 420 Level showed signs of congruence when it came to market breadth and price action.
3. Last 3 rallies including current one has shown divergence with market breadth along with a distinct pattern of consolidation that is followed by a sudden drop in price action.
4. It is important for price action to have another leg even if current uptrend is continued.
First Price Target: 404.64 Bouncing Support
Second Price Target: 400 Critical Support
Market Breadth:
1. Showing strong signs of divergence with average price action continuing to rise. The Tech Sector is mainly responsible for the upholding of this rally with giants like AAPLE, NVIDIA, AMD, AMAZON, META, & GOOGLE fighting against bearish momentum.
2. For the majority of US INDICES Tech companies like AAPLE, NVIDIA, AMD, AMAZON, META, & GOOGLE represent a large majority of the holdings within many US INDICES. So it is no coincidence for why market breadth may appear weak when only a couple holdings are contributing to rallies meanwhile a large majority of the holdings are in the red.
3. Market Breadth Levels of 4200 have been indicative of volatile declines in price action in the past with an average incoming 10 POINT DECLINE over a day or two.
FULL CHART LINK: www.tradingview.com
AMEX:SPY