Let's Review June 9th Through June 17th On SPY Part IMany of us know what Market Cycles are but, do you understand how to trade them & what to expect?
Here with SPY on the 1hr chart. Prices entered a range from May 27th to Jun 9th. If read correctly, you should have prepped to get short on the the support break of that range.
That range was considered a distribution area & once it broke, you should expect a trend down.
At 1:30 on June 9th, that range was broken & a trend was triggered.
Traders should have got short & stayed short. On Jun 17th with the last sell climax, traders could have look to take profit & reposition for another range & trend reversal up.
1st target, if looking at the pattern should be the bottom of the bull channel. If looking at price, the 1st target could be the GAP between 383-389.
The range from May 27th to June 9th should have been a signal to look for short entries either inside of the range or once it broke.
Trend reversals can be some of the best & easiest trades to spot, especially on the hourly charts.
June2022
Emerging Markets over S&P 500 (5/5)Emerging Market equities have underperformed the US for the last decade, and has now reached past lows during the dot-com bubble.
Looks poised for another reversion in the next 10 years!
EM is cheaper (has already fallen mainly due to weaknesses in Chinese equities)
DXY likely to weaken in the long-term, which should benefit EM equities.
Monthly RSI also seem to be putting in bullish divergence.
$IWM very attractive relative to S&P 500 (5/5)Shall cap relative performance to Large cap is showing a great opportunity.
REcently we have also seen the small caps valuation is as low as GFC levels, which is another indicator of good long-term buy opportunity.
Small caps (IWM) performance to self is not quite as attractive, so be aware. This could simply be an opportunity to do a long-short spread between small caps and large caps.
RSI is not quite as attractive as 2020 bottom, but nonetheless a good place to start adding.
$EEM Some near term risk, great long-term R:R (5/5)recently bouncing off of potential trendline support.
RSI is also at very attractive levels.
HOWEVER, be aware that dark blue line support has historically been more enduring. Which would be the buy point should we enter recession in the very near future.
Nonetheless, a good place to start adding long-term positions. Also, relative performance to US and relative value to US is very promising for the long-term as well.
$FXI bouncing off medium-term support (4/5)Some risk in the short term because we are nearing downtrend resistance since 2021.
However, long-term looks promising as we did a fake breakdown of 2011 support.
China easing with COVID restrictions and loosening crackdown on tech (CQQQ) can also serve as potential fundamental support.