Coffee Futures getting an uncommon sign of over extension.KC is hitting some fibs and speculators have been getting heavily long over the past 3 weeks as per COT data.
PMARP showing a good sign of over exuberance.
From what I can tell the consensus on it is that there's a big shortage and it cant go down, which is common across a few other commodities at the moment (CL etc). Consensus is rarely correct.
Much of the rally on this seems to have been supported by the "Bid everything, muh fed saving the economy" narrative that popped up last month.
A similar thing happened in 2008, Bear Sterns went under and JPM "saved the world", VIX got crushed to 16 (VIX is at 16.38 as of writing this) in the 4 weeks following, then we all know what happened from there.
Beware of big institutions saving the world narratives.
Kc
☕️Coffee futures (KC): third wave bull market.●● Preferred count
● Coffee Cash (KC.C), 🕐TF: 30D
Fig.1
In Fig. 1 , the wave count from 02/07/2022 . At the moment, the market is in the initial stage of the development of the primary wave ③ . The alternative scenario is the same — the continuation of the formation of the wave e of (IV) , as it is marked in black .
______________________________________________
● Coffee C®️ Futures (KC1!), 🕐TF: 6h
Fig.2
The wave ① formed the shape of an expanding diagonal . There is another infrequent pattern on the chart — an expanding triangle at the position of the wave (X) of ② .
Growth is expected to continue.
______________________________________________
📚 Elliott Wave Guide & Ellott Wave Archive ⬇️⬇️
Coffee Short - Seasonal weakness starting For my coffee drinkers - Both Arabica and Robusta had a strong start to the year. However, seasonally a bearish phase starts from 22 Feb to 31 Mar. The technical price target was also reached yesterday. In the last 17 years we can observe a negative trend between 22 Feb to 1 Mar. Only in 5 out of 17 years did the coffee price rise during this period. On average, coffee loses around -3.75% in this period with a standard deviation of 6.92%.
KC COFFEE Supply And Demand Technical Analysis Buy TradeHigher timeframe analysis:
-Price inside weekly RBR demand
-Price very near 200MA + above it.
-Looking for longs
Lower timeframe analysis:
-Pirce broke downward ML (trend lines)
-Price removed opposing supply pivot point areas of supply
-New HH/HL demand zones being created
-Looking at potential small risk with SL below the lowest level.
Let me know your thoughts.
Keltner Channels simple but effective profit targetsOur new super simple KC Crypto Profit Targets +/- 2 script (OK we gotta work on the title) works like a charm. The circles show almost exact hits of the price at the 2 ATR (All Time Range) multiplier levels (upper and lower blue bands).
Our script discards the +/- 1 and +/- 3 ATR multipliers for simplicity and conservative profit taking sake.
Note that this is the HOURLY chart for a rather volatile and - let's be honest - irrational period in crypto, in particular ETHEREUM. Even so, we see lots of ideal profit opportunities thanks to this simplified Keltner Channels script. Not bad!
Hope it helps!
COFFEE KC Supply And Demand AnalysisSee picture for analysis
Evidence for Longs
Pros:
1) bullish with inflation
2) food shortages
3) potential storms going into summer which might kill coffee beans.
4) Trend = Uptrend so any longs will be trending.
Cons:
1) Price below + reacting off of the 200MA
2) hard to scalp on lower timeframes + commissions/ swaps can be high.
Continuous KC WheatCont KC Wheat - Weekly: Retracements on the Left are from the 08’ High and the 19’ Low. Keep an eye on them on this trend up.
The current leg has us between the 8.92 pivot and the 7.81 pivot. A move lower will look for support at the red Kijun line around 7.35.
A move above the 8.92 high would next target a leg higher to 9.61…
COFFEE - LONG (for now); Free coffee for your Great Depression!Could Coffee drop to $0 (or even go negative), much like crude oil did not too long ago??... You be the judge.
While currently long (a generational speculative bubble and all), this is likely the one to watch for one of the greatest Short Setups in ages!
Here is the Monthly. See it, yet?...
No?!
The Quarterly;
How about now?
Still no?! Let me zoom in for you.
SWIR Swing TradeEntry @19.32 for the MSR @ 1000 on the hourly feb 4th,
I will hold for $21.00 based on the Resistance.
Stocks to Watch 11/29/2020The Bull Market is strong, but many stocks are extended and sentiment seems to be extremely bullish. I am cautious with new buys until the sentiment cools off a little. This video is my watchlist. Most of these names are at or near all time highs or multi year highs. There are 28 total stocks on this list. Many of these have IPO'd in the last few years and still have a growth story ahead of them. There are also some "COVID" stocks which may be setting up again. . Know your time frame and risk tolerance, grab a pencil and paper and jot down the names that look interesting to you and then make the trade your own. Good Luck!
Trend change is coming. Potential entries and targetsThe COT report is bearish, the seasonal tendency is to the downside. We have a divergence in the 4h chart. So, where do we sell? I think breaking below Thursday's low or formation of lower high would be good entries. 120 has been an important level for Coffee. It has to be tested again and it is our swing target.
i post way too many h&s... but looks pretty clean using rangesObserving price action in ranges seems to reduce asymmetry in this monster snapback we have experienced. Maybe a compelling argument for the next leg up. The outer KC converging onto pre-crash ATHs could help accelerate the melt-up; however, I would be looking to moderately sell into further strength, especially with an election coming up we will likely be coming back into the KC zones soon. That being said, it is impossible how long to tell the record-breaking buying, and rapid asset price appreciation will persist, and it seems like 4000-4500 will be in play before we see anything close to 3000.