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Coffee Futures: Bearish Confluence Indicates Potential Short PosIn the coffee futures market, recent analysis reveals a significant bearish outlook. The Commitment of Traders (COT) report indicates that commercial traders are holding major short positions. Additionally, seasonal patterns suggest a tendency for bearish momentum during this time of the year, further reinforcing the downtrend. Technical Analysis and Confluences Supply Area and Fibonacci Levels: Price Action: The price has reached a key supply area, suggesting a potential retest and subsequent decline. Fibonacci Confluences: Various Fibonacci retracement levels align with this supply area, adding strength to the bearish case. Momentum Indicators: Overbought Conditions: On the H4 timeframe, momentum indicators such as the RSI show that the market is currently in overbought territory. This typically precedes a price correction or reversal. Seasonal Trends: Historical data indicates that coffee futures often experience bearish pressure during this period. This seasonality aligns with the current technical setup, suggesting that the market could follow its usual pattern of decline. COT Report Insights: The COT report underscores that commercial traders, often considered the "smart money," are heavily short. This position by commercial traders can be interpreted as a strong bearish signal, given their historical accuracy in forecasting market movements. Trading Strategy Given the combination of a bearish COT report, seasonal trends, and technical indicators showing overbought conditions and resistance at the supply area, we are considering opening a short position in coffee futures. Key Points for the Short Position: Entry Point: Around the current supply area, taking into account Fibonacci retracement levels. Stop Loss: Just above the supply area to manage risk. Target: Based on historical support levels and previous price actions, aiming for a significant downward move in line with seasonal and COT report signals. By aligning our strategy with these confluences, we aim to capitalize on the anticipated bearish momentum in the coffee futures market.
ICEUS:KC1!Short
by FOREXN1
2
Coffee: Caffeine's about to hit ☕The coffee price has been moving downward since February last year within the framework of the superior wave Y in turquoise. In our primary expectation, however, this descent should not last much longer. In the orange target zone between USX 144.40 and USX 136.40, it should come to the low, followed by subsequent rises. Only falling below the zone would put a spoke in the wheel. Then, the price would have to drop much further within our 35% probable alternative before the reversal sets in.
ICEUS:KC1!Long
by MarketIntel
KC1! Gold6.12.23 I probably should have made this Bobby's homework assignment..... I went back to take another look at gold to help me manage my Miserable state of mind... which was totally unnecessary. I added the coffee market which is moving beautifully... even though it got lower after the weekend. It's very important to understand the tools and went to take profits to avoid Drawdowns.... and also to allow you to take a profit.... let the market reverse... and then actually take a long trade. There will always be good decisions, Marginal decisions. and bad decisions<<<<Coupled with greed and fear. But this is why we use tools and strategies that help us sort it out. Everybody who trades... has losing trades.You learn to prepare for it. For example... when I go out to buy two pieces of pastry, not just one...AND A large cup of coffee... I bring some Pepto-Bismol To deal with any untoward consequences. Always be prepared.
ICEUS:KC1!
by ScottBogatin
1
KC1!5.7.23 This is a review of the coffee market which is approaching A potential reversal area because it's coming close to a bearish gap lower. Really what you have to do Is watch the market when it's trading later today on Sunday or Monday when the volume of trade will be significant. I spent A good bit of time on this video to show you where there might be the potential of important Reversals if the market manages to trade higher to the 618 Retracement...This is interesting but not relevant to a trade ...if the market reaches this level.
ICEUS:KC1!
by ScottBogatin
1
Bobby's Homework Assignment4.27.23 This video Is an analysis of coffee, but it is really an analysis of price action and reversal patterns for buyers and sellers. this market services buyers and sellers. The good buyers and the good sellers will make money in this market, and if you take a look at Trades that could have been taken if you could find the proper trade location... it might even be surprising how profitable these markets can be for both the buyers and the sellers. The biggest problem I had with my Trading was that I didn't want to accept that realization that something was going on with the market That was going to interrupt my trade and cost me money. Usually when this happens... for most Traders including myself it was very difficult to acknowledge it and then study the situation while the market was proceeding to lose me money because something had changed in the market. and this went on for a long time until I found a very simple solution: Stop day trading for a few years and figure out what the heck was going on... without the stress of losing money in the interim. Not only did I learn more, but I learned that the market will change direction and that it doesn't have to hurt me so consistently if I'm willing to change my paradigm once I understand how markets move before I lose my money. When you're losing money, the brain Stops working and it is nearly impossible to think with the same clarity that is needed to be profitable.... but this doesn't happen until you're in a state of mind that is more objective and is WILLING To observe... and that is NOT when you are losing money.
ICEUS:KC1!
by ScottBogatin
☕️Coffee futures (KC): third wave bull market.●● Preferred count ● Coffee Cash (KC.C), 🕐TF: 30D Fig.1 In Fig. 1 , the wave count from 02/07/2022 . At the moment, the market is in the initial stage of the development of the primary wave ③ . The alternative scenario is the same — the continuation of the formation of the wave e of (IV) , as it is marked in black . ______________________________________________ ● Coffee C®️ Futures (KC1!), 🕐TF: 6h Fig.2 The wave ① formed the shape of an expanding diagonal . There is another infrequent pattern on the chart — an expanding triangle at the position of the wave (X) of ② . Growth is expected to continue. ______________________________________________ 📚 Elliott Wave Guide & Ellott Wave Archive ⬇️⬇️
ICEUS:KC1!Long
by TradeWaves-EWA
1
Coffee C Futures ( KC1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish ContinuationTitle: Coffee C Futures ( KC1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Continuation Type: Bullish Continuation Resistance: 214.05 Pivot: 182.95 Support: 172.60 Preferred case: Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for KC1! is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market. To add confluence to this bias, price is also along an ascending trend line. If this bullish momentum continues, expect price to retest the pivot at 182.95, where the overlap support is, before continue heading towards the resistance at 214.05, where the overlap resistance is. Alternative scenario: Price may head back down to break the pivot at 182.95, where the overlap support is, before heading towards the support at 172.60, where the overlap support and 23.6% Fibonacci line is. Fundamentals: There are no major news.
ICEUS:KC1!Long
by Genesiv
1
Bobby's Homework Assignment2.18.23 It appears that coffee is going to trade higher. There is a particular ABCD pattern that suggests this. The critical pivot that allowed me to draw that pattern could have given me that clue. however, just after that clue appeared,, the market went a lot higher... not quite reaching the bearish gap lower, And then it moved all the way back to just about the gap that led to the substantial move Higher. In other words break out buyers move it a lot higher, And then the market Took out Most of those fires.... you would call it A wash and rinse.... and it might very well have you think that the Market's too bearish to move higher because the Lower Was so impressive...Many of the breakout buyers Exited the market and the thought that the market was going to go a lot higher it's either forgotten... or many Traders just don't want the risk to go along.... even though the tool that showed you it was likely to go higher has not been harmed in any way whatsoever because the correction lower actually takes you to a level that doesn't harm the reversal pattern and it fails to break below a support area or a 382. There is a Psychology for most people that they are more stressed Losing something that they feel was theirs ie. the market moves up Thousands of dollars for an unrealized profit, but then moves all the way back to break even... and they Are more traumatized by this then they are if they miss a trade of thousands of dollars.... even if both trade decisions lead to zero loss. There was a signal... in ABCD pattern Is that the market was going to trade considerably higher, But the market Attracted breakout fires first, And then it hurt those bars when the market came back to support... Making it very difficult for many traders To think about Going long after such a steep move higher and a steep correction lower. The Dynamics of this Are much greater than my description, but it's important to factor in human behavior and the things we naturally do that can actually be non-productive to our abilities to trade. once you get in trouble in a trade, it can throw you off and it can change your judgment about the market in non-productive ways.
ICEUS:KC1!
by ScottBogatin
Coffee C Futures ( KC1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish ContinuationTitle: Coffee C Futures ( KC1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Continuation Type: Bullish Continuation Resistance: 214.05 Pivot: 172.60 Support: 142.05 Preferred case: Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for KC1! is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud , indicating a bullish market. If this bullish momentum continues, expect price to retest the pivot at 172.60, where the 23.6% Fibonacci line and overlap support are, before continue heading towards the resistance at 214.05, where the overlap resistance is. Alternative scenario: Price may head back down to break the pivot at 172.60, where the 23.6% Fibonacci line and overlap support are, before heading towards the support at 142.05, where the previous swing low is. Fundamentals: There are no major news.
ICEUS:KC1!Long
by Genesiv
Coffee C Futures ( KC1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish ContinuationTitle: Coffee C Futures ( KC1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Continuation Type: Bullish Continuation Resistance: 214.05 Pivot: 172.60 Support: 142.05 Preferred case: Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for KC1! is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud , indicating a bullish market. If this bullish momentum continues, expect price to retest the pivot at 172.60, where the 23.6% Fibonacci line and overlap support are, before continue heading towards the resistance at 214.05, where the overlap resistance is. Alternative scenario: Price may head back down to break the pivot at 172.60, where the 23.6% Fibonacci line and overlap support are, before heading towards the support at 142.05, where the previous swing low is. Fundamentals: There are no major news.
ICEUS:KC1!Long
by Genesiv
Coffee C Futures ( KC1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish ContinuationTitle: Coffee C Futures ( KC1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Continuation Type: Bullish Continuation Resistance: 214.05 Pivot: 172.60 Support: 142.05 Preferred case: Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for KC1! is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market. If this bullish momentum continues, expect price to retest the pivot at 172.60, where the 23.6% Fibonacci line and overlap support are, before continue heading towards the resistance at 214.05, where the overlap resistance is. Alternative scenario: Price may head back down to break the pivot at 172.60, where the 23.6% Fibonacci line and overlap support are, before heading towards the support at 142.05, where the previous swing low is. Fundamentals: There are no major news.
ICEUS:KC1!Long
by Genesiv
COFFEE C® FUTURES - Correction TimeFrom November 2020, there is a very strong upward trend. Coffee prices remain high, we have broken the 2014 peak. The price is moving in the main growth channel (green) with a divergence that started in August. (The situation was similar on Natural Gas ). We saw a high around $ 250, followed by lower highs and lower lows. Let's see if the new blue channel works. My KC1 strategy: I have opened shorts with a target of $ 160, if the blue channel is not valid I will hedge at $ 252 or sooner then reverse and add to the position. The recent rise in price may have been due to a falling wedge pattern, visible on the 5h chart. Let's see how it will play out Good luck. Cheers!
ICEUS:KC1!Short
by Divergencify
7
Coffee C Futures ( KC1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish ContinuationTitle: Coffee C Futures ( KC1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Continuation Type: Bullish Continuation Resistance: 214.05 Pivot: 172.60 Support: 142.05 Preferred case: Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for KC1! is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market. If this bullish momentum continues, expect price to retest the pivot at 172.60, where the 23.6% Fibonacci line and overlap support are, before continue heading towards the resistance at 214.05, where the overlap resistance is. Alternative scenario: Price may head back down to break the pivot at 172.60, where the 23.6% Fibonacci line and overlap support are, before heading towards the support at 142.05, where the previous swing low is. Fundamentals: There are no major news.
ICEUS:KC1!Long
by Genesiv
Coffee C Futures ( KC1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish ContinuationTitle: Coffee C Futures ( KC1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Continuation Type: Bullish Continuation Resistance: 174.95 Pivot: 157.55 Support: 142.05 Preferred case: Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for KC1! is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud , indicating a bullish market. If this bullish momentum continues, expect price to continue heading towards the resistance at 174.95, where the previous swing high is. Alternative scenario: Price may head back down to retest the pivot at 157.55, where the 38.2% Fibonacci line is. Fundamentals: There are no major news.
ICEUS:KC1!Long
by Genesiv
Coffee C Futures ( KC1! ), H4 Potential for Bearish DropTitle: Coffee C Futures ( KC1! ), H4 Potential for Bearish Drop Type: Bearish Drop Resistance: 154.30 Pivot: 164.00 Support: 142.05 Preferred case: Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for KC1! is bearish due to the current price being below the Ichimoku cloud , indicating a bearish market. If this bearish momentum continues, expect price to continue heading towards the support at 142.05, where the recent low is. Alternative scenario: Price may head back up to retest the resistance at 154.30, where the 38.2% Fibonacci line is. Fundamentals: There are no major news.
ICEUS:KC1!Short
by Genesiv
Coffee C Futures ( KC1!), H4 Potential for Bearish DropTitle: Coffee C Futures ( KC1!), H4 Potential for Bearish Drop Type: Bearish Drop Resistance: 154.30 Pivot: 164.00 Support: 142.05 Preferred case: Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for KC1! is bearish due to the current price being below the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bearish market. If this bearish momentum continues, expect price to continue heading towards the support at 142.05, where the recent low is. Alternative scenario: Price may head back up to retest the resistance at 154.30, where the 38.2% Fibonacci line is. Fundamentals: There are no major news.
ICEUS:KC1!Short
by Genesiv
Coffee Futures ( KC1! ), H4 Potential for Bearish DropTitle: Coffee Futures ( KC1! ), H4 Potential for Bearish Drop Type: Bearish Drop Resistance: 174.35 Pivot: 163.80 Support: 154.30 Preferred case: Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for KC1! is bearish due to the current price being below the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bearish market. If this bearish momentum continues, expect price to possibly continue heading towards the support at 154.30, where the previous swing low is. Alternative scenario: Price may head back up to retest the pivot at 163.80 where the 50% Fibonacci line is. Fundamentals: There are no major news.
ICEUS:KC1!Short
by Genesiv