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Kc1

Coffee Futures ( KC1!), H1 Potential for Bullish BounceType: Bullish Bounce Resistance: 228.20 Pivot: 217. 40 Support: 213.15 Preferred case: Price is moving nearer to the pivot level. We are expecting the price to potentially bounce off from our pivot level of 217. 40 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 161.8% Fibonacci extension towards our 1st resistance level of 228.20 which is in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci projection . Alternative scenario: Otherwise, the price might break our pivot structure and head for the 1st support level of 213.15 in line with graphical swing low support. Fundamentals: No major news.
ICEUS:KC1!Long
by Genesiv
Coffee Futures ( KC1!), H1 Potential for Bullish BounceType : Bullish Bounce Resistance : 227.70 Pivot: 221.75 Support : 219.20 Preferred case: We see the potential for a bounce from our pivot at 221.75 in line with 127.2% Fibonacci extension towards our 1st resistance at 227.70 in line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci extension. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may break our pivot structure and head for 1st support at 219.20 in line with 138.2% Fibonacci extension. Fundamentals: No major news.
ICEUS:KC1!Long
by Genesiv
KC1! 1W Long Term Coffee Futurestest Coffee is one of the world's most important cash commodities . Coffee is the common name for any type of tree in the genus madder family. It is actually a tropical evergreen shrub that has the potential to grow 100 feet tall. The coffee tree grows in tropical regions between the Tropics of Cancer and Capricorn in areas with abundant rainfall, year-round warm temperatures averaging about 70 degrees Fahrenheit, and no frost. In the U.S., the only areas that produce any significant amount of coffee are Puerto Rico and Hawaii. The coffee plant will produce its first full crop of beans at about five years old and then be productive for about 15 years. The average coffee tree produces enough beans to make about 1 to 1 ½ pounds of roasted coffee per year. It takes approximately 4,000 handpicked green coffee beans to make a pound of coffee . Wine was the first drink made from the coffee tree using the coffee cherries, honey, and water. In the 17th century, the first coffee house, also known as a "penny university" because of the price per cup, opened in London. The London Stock Exchange grew from one of these first coffee houses. Coffee is generally classified into two types of beans: arabica and robusta. The most widely produced coffee is arabica, which makes up about 70 percent of total production. It grows mostly at high altitudes of 600 to 2,000 meters, with Brazil and Colombia being the largest producers. Arabic coffee is traded at the ICE Futures U.S. exchange. The stronger of the two types is robusta. It is grown at lower altitudes with the largest producers being Indonesia, West Africa, Brazil, and Vietnam. Robusta coffee is traded on the ICE Futures Europe exchange. Ninety percent of the world coffee trade is in green (unroasted) coffee beans. Seasonal factors have a significant influence on the price of coffee . There is no extreme peak in world production at any one time of the year, although coffee consumption declines by 12 percent or more below the year's average in the warm summer months. Therefore, coffee imports and roasts both tend to decline in spring and summer and pick up again in fall and winter. Very low prices for coffee can create serious long-term problems for coffee producers. When prices fall below the costs of production, there is little economic incentive to produce coffee , and coffee trees may be neglected or completely abandoned. When prices are low, producers cannot afford to hire the labor needed to maintain the trees and pick the crop at harvest. The result is that trees yield less due to reduced use of fertilizer and fewer employed coffee workers. One effect is a decline in the quality of the coffee that is produced. Higher quality Arabica coffee is often produced at higher altitudes, which entails higher costs. It is this coffee that is often abandoned. Although the pressure on producers can be severe, the market eventually comes back into balance as supply declines in response to low prices. Coffee prices are subject to upward spikes in June, July, and August due to possible freeze scares in Brazil during the winter months in the Southern Hemisphere. The Brazilian coffee crop is harvested starting in May and extending for several weeks into what are the winter months in Brazil. A major freeze in Brazil occurs roughly every five years on average. Coffee futures and options are traded at the ICE Futures U.S. and ICE Futures Europe exchanges, and the B3 Exchange (formerly BM&F/BOVESPA). Coffee futures are traded on the JSE Securities Exchange (JSE). Prices - ICE Arabica coffee futures prices (Barchart.com symbol KC) were under pressure in Q1-2019 and fell to a 15-1/4 year low of 86.35 cents per pound in April 2019. Robust supplies undercut arabica coffee prices as data from the International Coffee Organization ( ICO ) showed that global 2018 arabica coffee exports climbed +4.3% yr/yr to 78.63 million bags. Also, ICO forecasted a global 2018/19 coffee surplus of +4.96 million bags, increasing from a +2. 05 million bag surplus in 2017/18. Conab, the Brazilian government's forecasting agency, said it expected Brazil's 2019 coffee crop would climb to 50.9 million bags, the highest ever seen for a lower-yielding half of a two-year cycle. Weakness in the Brazilian real throughout 2019 further encouraged export selling by Brazil's coffee producers as the real slid to new record lows against the dollar. Brazil coffee researcher Cepea projected Brazil 2018/19 coffee exports would jump to a record 40 million bags on persistent weakness in the Brazilian real. Coffee prices recovered into Q3-2019 as adverse weather in Brazil curbed coffee yields. In September 2019, Conab cut its Brazil 2019 coffee crop forecast to 49 million bags from a prior forecast of 50.9 million bags. Coffee prices then rallied into year-end after ICO in November 2019 projected a global 2019/20 coffee deficit of -502,000 bags, compared with a downwardly revised surplus of +3.7 million bags for 2018/19. Supplies tightened after ICE-monitored arabica coffee inventories fell from a 5-1/2 yr high of 2.502 million bags in March to a 1-1/2 year low of 2.022 million bags in December. Prices finished 2019 up +27.3% yr/yr at 129.70 cents per pound. Supply - World coffee production in the 2019/20 marketing year (July-June) is expected to fall -3.1% yr/yr to 169.130 million bags (1 bag equals 60 kilograms or 132.3 pounds) after rising by +10.0% yr/yr to a new record high of 174.500 million bags in 2018/19. Coffee ending stocks in the 2019/20 marketing year are expected to fall -7.7% yr/yr to 33.545 million bags after the +17.1% surge seen in 2018/19 to 36.348 million bags. Brazil is the world's largest coffee producer by far, followed by Vietnam. Demand - U.S. coffee consumption in 2019 rose +7.3% yr/yr to 29.211 million bags, a new record high. Trade - World coffee exports in 2019/20 are forecasted to fall -0.8% yr/yr to 136.777 million bags, down from last year's record high of 137.924. The world's largest exporters of coffee in 2018/19 were Brazil with 25.6% of world exports, Vietnam with 20.4%, and Columbia with 9.6%. U.S. coffee imports in 2019 rose +7.3% yr/yr to 29.211 million bags, a new record high. The key countries from which the U.S. imported coffee in 2019 were Brazil with 27.3% of U.S. imports, Columbia with 20.4%, Guatemala with 4.8%, and Mexico with 4.5%.
ICEUS:KC1!Short
by TheCryptoChartWhisperer
2
Coffee Re-accumulation! Hello my beauties. The chart of coffee suggests a violent bullish breakout of a multi-year downward trendline. The price will probably continue its uptrend, but it is now signalling the beginning of a phase of re-accumulation; the price has reacted strongly with a sudden move to the downside that has stunned the price sideways. I will wait for further development to make sure the schematics play out as expected. I will wait for the price to breach the range in red to the downside, only to quickly recover within the range itself; the successful retest of the bottom of the range would be my buy signal before the uptrend continuation. If you find this idea to be helpful like, follow, and drop a comment below if you'd want me to analyse a different pair. Consider supporting me if you think I am providing you with value. Peace. Luca, TrickleDownFX
ICEUS:KC1!Long
by TrickleDownFX
KC1! COFFEE FUTURES:FIBO PULLBACK WITH FUNDAMENTAL NEWS...Coffee prices on Thursday extended this week's rally. Coffee has moved higher this week despite concerns about coffee crops in Brazil. Weather has predicted above-average temperatures in the coming month for Brazil's coffee-growing regions, which could further stress Brazil's coffee plantations. Recent frost events in Brazil have damaged coffee trees. Surveys conducted by the government found that last month's frost events reached 194 municipalities and more than 80% were affected in some way. Control authorities said on August 3 he said sharp swings in temperatures over the past 30 days in Brazil have triggered severe defoliation of trees in coffee growing areas. Nevertheless we can see how the chart is in a Situation of Pullback, with Volumes and Stochastic Indicator coming out of the Oversold area with divergence. The price has harmoniously rebounded on Fibonacci levels and our opinion sees the price of coffee rise also due to the possible decrease in stocks. Do you think the cost of coffee will grow?
ICEUS:KC1!Long
by FOREXN1
11
COFFEE Bullish Bias! Buy! Hello,Traders! COFFEE broke the key weekly level And then broke out of the bullish triangle Continuing its bullish rally further up Looking at the chart, the next strong level is around 176$ Which means that coffee can grow by about 8.5% more from the current levels Until we see a meaningful pullback However, the pullback will be short lived As the current price surge in coffee is due to the drought in Brazil Which led to the corp failure of up to 100% in some areas Thus, the 176 level is not the limit! Buy! Like, comment and subscribe to boost your trading! See other ideas below too!
ICEUS:KC1!Long
by TopTradingSignals
3
Weekly coffee market review 12/21/2020.Support us by consulting our free magazines with color stock charts and weather maps on our commodity-market-review.com website. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF ARABICA COFFEE Last week, ICE US coffee futures closed higher at 125.25 ct/lb. Arabica coffee prices, although they could not reach them, approached the highs of August. The USDA reduced world coffee production by 0.34% to 175.50 million bags. They forecast world coffee demand for the same period at 165.40 million bags. Their latest forecast would indicate the potential for a world coffee surplus of 10.1 million bags. CONAB, announced that Brazilian coffee producers, due to positive biennial factors for Arabica coffee plantations, are expected to produce 63.08 million bags for the season from July 2020 to June 2021. This estimate has been revised upwards by 2.36% compared to their previous estimate of 61.62 million bags. CONAB has revised its projections for Arabica coffee production upwards by 3.17% compared to its last estimate, which is now expected to total 48.80 million bags, while Robusta production has also been revised upwards by 0.70% compared to their last estimate to 14.30 million bags. The area under coffee cultivation in Brazil increased by 3.9% in 2020 compared to the previous year, to 1.88 million hectares. On the international level, the Republican leader of the Senate Mitch McConnell announced Sunday evening that a 900 billion agreement would be reached. The Fed said its stock purchases would continue at the current rate of $120 billion per month until substantial additional progress has been made. The brexit saga continues, with the European Parliament's Sunday night deadline for a deal passed, but negotiations will continue. No one seems to want to take responsibility for a possible failure. After Pfizer, the FDA also approved Moderna's vaccine. As far as the pandemic is concerned, the vaccination campaign has started in the United States. The new strain of coronavirus detected in Great Britain worries, it would be 70% more contagious. The global death toll is rising, we have just passed 76 million cases worldwide, with more than 1.692 million deaths. The United States is still the most affected country, with 317,000 deaths and more than 17 million cases. The Dollar fell last week, with the DXY closing lower at 89.924, hitting a 2 1/2 year low. The long-term trend is still bearish. WEATHER IN BRAZIL 90% of Brazilian coffee is grown in 4 regions: Minas Gerais, Espirito Santo, Sao Paulo and Parana. The rainy season has started and lasts until April-May. Rainfall was below normal in October and November in the Brazilian coffee belt. The rains were late in coming and irreversible damage is feared for the next harvest. Last week, rains were below normal, especially in northern Minas Gerais. However, the wet weather in December is perceived as more favorable for the next harvest. Heavy rains are expected next week. ICE US CERTIFIED COFFEE STOCKS Coffee stocks are up to 1.370 million 60 Kg bags, compared to 1.324 last week. ICE US stocks of Arabica coffee are below the five-year average. The low stocks may provide some support to the coffee price on futures contracts. THE DOLLAR The DXY index representing the Dollar against a basket of foreign currencies closed last week down to 89.924, hitting a 2 1/2 year low. The long-term trend is still bearish. The possibilities of reaching an agreement on a contingency plan to support the U.S. economy, as well as the possibility of an economic recovery, are expected to continue. Disappointing economic results weighed on the currency last week. Indeed, U.S. Retail Sales down to -0.9% and Unemployment Claims up to 885K disappointed. The Brazilian Real closed stable at 0.1962 last week. The Brazilian Real has been benefiting in recent weeks from the falling Dollar, breaking the bearish channel it was in, and benefiting greatly from the rise in coffee prices this past week. If the dollar's downtrend remains unchanged, the Real will surely test the 0.20 it hasn't reached since June. The BRL/USD pair is positively correlated with coffee futures prices. A low Real increases the competitiveness of Brazilian producers and encourages them to export. COMMITMENTS OF TRADERS The weekly COT (Commitments of Traders) report of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) shows all the positions opened by all market participants. The COT report is published on Friday, and reflects the open positions on Tuesday of the same week. It shows the position of commercial traders (producers, commodity buyers, ...) but also non-commercial (speculators). The net positions of speculators on the futures markets are particularly interesting to observe. The speculative net position on the cotton futures markets is up this week to 36.105 K instead of 31.519 K.
ICEUS:KC1!
by Commodity-market-review
Weekly coffee market review 12/14/2020.Support us by consulting our free magazines with color stock charts and weather maps on our commodity-market-review.com website. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF ARABICA COFFEE Last week, ICE US coffee futures closed higher at 121.60 ct/lb. The International Coffee Organization ICO reported that world coffee exports for October were 3.19% higher than the same month last year at 9.672 million bags. Cumulative world coffee exports for the first 10 months of 2020 were 3.8% lower than the previous year, totalling 107.08 million bags. According to the ICO, world coffee supply is estimated at 168.55 million bags over the last 12 months, and world consumption at around 167.59 million bags. This would result in a world coffee market in slight oversupply. The association of coffee exporters in Brazil Cecafé reported that exports were 3.69 million bags of Arabica coffee, an increase of 33.85% compared to the same month last year. Regarding Robusta coffee, the trade in Vietnam is now in full swing as farmers begin to supply more and more coffee. The harvest is estimated to be 25% complete and is accelerating now that weather conditions are more favorable and drier. Forecasts are estimated for this new crop, between 27 million and 28 million bags for Vietnam and 11.60 million bags for Indonesia. In Brazil, more favourable weather in early December is being observed with heavy rains over the vast coffee growing areas in Brazil. The rainy weather is welcome after months of drier weather, although irreversible damage will be expected. Local consumption in Brazil, at around 21.50 million bags per year, is expected to be slightly lower overall this year. Internationally, the ECB has increased its asset repurchase program by 500 billion, the US support plan is still slow in coming, and a brexit no-deal is increasingly likely. The FDA in turn is approving the use of Pfizer's vaccine, and vaccination begins this week in the US. In terms of the pandemic update, we have just surpassed 72 million cases worldwide, with more than 1.607 million deaths. The U.S. is still the most affected country, and will approach and surpass the 300,000 mark in deaths and more than 16 million cases. The Dollar consolidated last week as the DXY closed higher at 90.976, with the long-term trend still bearish. WEATHER IN BRAZIL 90% of Brazilian coffee is grown in 4 regions: Minas Gerais, Espirito Santo, Sao Paulo and Parana. The rainy season has started and lasts until April-May. Rainfall was below normal in October and November in the Brazilian coffee belt. The rains were late in coming and irreversible damage is feared for the next harvest. Last week, rains were abundant, with up to 75 to 100 mm, especially in Minas Gerais. The rainy weather in December is seen as more favorable for the next harvest. Next week, heavy rains are also expected, but this time further south in Sao Paulo and Parana. ICE US CERTIFIED COFFEE STOCKS Coffee stocks are up to 1.324 million 60 kg bags, compared to 1.294 last week. ICE US stocks of Arabica coffee are below the five-year average. The low stocks may provide some support to the coffee price on futures contracts. THE DOLLAR The DXY index representing the Dollar against a basket of foreign currencies closed last week up at 90.976, although the long-term trend is still bearish. The DXY consolidated last week. The ECB increased its asset repurchase program by $500 billion, and, the U.S. support plan is still lagging behind, still failing to agree on emergency aid of just over $900 billion. The dollar has also strengthened against the pound sterling, on an increasingly likely no-deal, as the disagreements seem so deep. Last week, the Brazilian Real closed higher at 0.1971, for the 4th consecutive week. The Brazilian Real has been benefiting in recent weeks from the falling Dollar, breaking the bearish channel it was in, and benefiting greatly from the rise in coffee prices this past week. If the dollar's downtrend remains unchanged, the Real will surely test the 0.20 it hasn't reached since June. The BRL/USD pair is positively correlated with coffee futures prices. A low Real increases the competitiveness of Brazilian producers and encourages them to export. COMMITMENTS OF TRADERS The weekly COT (Commitments of Traders) report of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) shows all the positions opened by all market participants. The COT report is published on Friday, and reflects the open positions on Tuesday of the same week. It shows the position of commercial traders (producers, commodity buyers, ...) but also non-commercial (speculators). The net positions of speculators on the futures markets are particularly interesting to observe. The speculative net position on the cotton futures markets is down this week to 31.519 K instead of 32.265 K.
ICEUS:KC1!
by Commodity-market-review
1
KC on a retest of the support 🦐KC after the last impulse at 134 level retraced back until the 0.786 of the previous leg at the 102 level. From there the market started a new leg up until the daily resistance at 124. Price retraced back and moved in a range between the 0.382 over a support and the resistance structure and recently broke above. IF the price will not break below and give us new sign of inversion will be set a nice long order according to Plancton' s strategy. ––––– Follow the Shrimp 🦐 Keep in mind. 🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure. 🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure. 🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure. 🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure. ⚫️ Black structure -> <4h structure. Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question. The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
ICEUS:KC1!Long
by InkyGrip
2