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Kc1

Coffee Update #2It appears we had a touch and fail at the base of the swing zone. Based on 2016, looks like another trip through the accumulation zone (Yellow Rectangle) is ahead, with a possible dip into the final shakeout region (Green Rectangle) before another attempt on the swing zone. In 2016, we saw 3 failed touches/peeks into the swing zone followed by chop back into the accumulation region along with dips into the shakeout region before a full break into the swing zone. Will the script repeat?
KLong
by pnesbitt
Money in your coffee :)In Singapore where i lived, there is more coffee shops to satisfy the most sophisticated drinker! From the most expensive to the local delight, we have a wide variety. I used to drink 7-8 cups a day until I became a vegetarian and stopped drinking. What is the monthly chart telling us ? 1. A triple bottom - 1975, 1992 and 2001 all lands at price level of 44.05. This tells me that even if I had invested early during these time but failed to take profits at the peak of 334.15 at 1977, 321 at 1997 or 306 at 2011, I would be sitting at the current price of 127.55. In short, buy and hold strategy works but not for infinite time, imo. 2. Expanding the chart further, we can see that price has moved from lower low of 44.05 to current price of 127.05. However, the higher high seems to collapse southwards - 303.90 in 2009, 225.35 in 2014 and 175.65 in 2016. Thus, one can draw a symmetrical triangle and conclude that price can either move upwards as I believe so, first to 175.65 and then to 225.35. Alternatively, it could heads south towards 89.45 and then 44.05 zone. 3. Look at the 3 blue circle I have highlighted. It shows price action trying to breakout of the 618 FIB level in 2008, failed , retraced for 2 years. In 2010, it attempted to break out again and succeeded, bringing the price to the peak of 301 level. Then it collapsed terribly and in 2014, it managed to breakout once more, bringing the price to 225 level. Same story again, it collapsed and 2016, it wants to show the world it can do it again albeit for a while. How long ? For 4 months only and price stay depressed till now. Conclusion that I draw : the flush (selling) is getting lesser and lesser (look at the red candles pattern, it gets shorter and shorter) while the buying is getting more and more (evidenced by lower low). 4. Start a small position, accumulate more when it breaks out of the 618 level or the symmetrical triangle pattern. Mid to Long term - bullish
KLong
by dchua1969
(Daily) Coffee for a Shark @ Confluence or @ Previous StructureICEUSA:KC1! Confluence between the 618 retracement and the 161% extension, let's see if the big bears start to bid lower once the price gets there. (IF) There's also the previous structure at 224%, above the 78.6% retracement, let's call it a "cluster zone between fibs", and it will "validate" the "extended" Shark at 224% (check price action and structure at both levels, the 161% and the 224%). Safe Trades;
KShort
by Andre_Cardoso
Coffee Tactical Low in New Bull CycleI am bullish Coffee since a series of bullish momentum divergences started to develop in February, March and April. As with other commodities, I am convinced that the early 2016 lows were important cyclical lows. I am therefore bullish Coffee long-term. The weakening US Dollar should further support the entire commodities complex. The latest correction brought the futures back to an important breakout level, which was succesfully tested. The next swing in coffee futures should target 169/170, although it may fade at 160. An interesting trade, nevertheless. ETF Idea in New York: JO ETF Idea in London: 3CFL ($-listed, 3x times leverage, risky) Best,
KLong
by gorillacharts
KC shortUpdate on a upsloping trendline (blue) which acts as resistance On the 5 hour chart, we should have generated a sell signal. I still remain short via puyt spread 1x2s, as frost is no longer an issue. It appears the market is still digesting this from last week and should correct lower IMHO as physical supplies out of Brazil remain steady. Warehouse stocks in EU and US plenty as well. Dont get me wrong, as shown in the blue channel, even if we have a correction lower, the blue trend channel might indicate a change in trend, however the frost damage is simply not there and in order to rally, this market would need breaking news like that.... without anything of that sort coming out, I see a correction lower before making new highs. Still, knowing coffee, I remain short with 1x2 calendar spreads, buying the downside 1 leg in one month and selling 2 lower puts in a month further back.
KShort
by mjhillpp
2
No frost in BrazilSeems like no frost in Brazil. It was a busy weeks last week and throughout the weekend with fears a frost could hit coffee areas. None has been confirmed and worst fears did not play out. Once all of this is digested I expect some downside opportunities as the market goes back into trading technicals rather than emotions. Quite oversold and we saw sell signals on RSI and Stochastik a while ago. Also, the 5 hour chart will provide with a sell signal, which has been a superb indicator of short term price action (5-10 days). I am short via 1x2 calendar put spreads, long the 135s in Q and short the 125s in U and various other like this. As we move lower, option vega will come in and provide some nice profits. Also, selling the Sep (U16) contract provides with some good premium as this is considered the frost month. Looking at futures spreads, they have been weak the past two trading sessions and also foreshadow price action. Support at 134, then nothing until 125
KShort
by mjhillpp
5