The Bitcoin Supercycle (Part I)This chart illustrates super-cycle wave 1 and 2 of the Bitcoin lifecycle. Grey dots indicate Kennedy channel loci (selected using the orthodox method) and Grey circles indicate interaction with an extant (still active) channel boundary. I propose that the Grey circled locations serve as critical junctures which are deserving of attention as they typically signify/confirm major modal shifts in the market. As is apparent from this chart, the first two channel strikes (v & w) denoted sub-waves 3 and 5 of macro wave 3. The next strike occurs at 'x' which confirms the higher-degree W4. Finally the strike denoted as 5, as is typical for a W5 termination corresponds to a strike of the underside of the acceleration channel. You may wonder about the relevance of these observations: They apply at *every* degree i.e. I should expect the macro Base channel established by the Oct '10 low, the Dec '17 high and the Dec '18 low to manifest similar confluence going forward. I'll cover what this looks like so far in part II.
Kennedy
2021 Fireworks for ETH and DeFi* This is my highest-degree wave-count: ETH is gearing up for a gargantuan move against BTC in 2021 imho.
* I have a completed primary-degree Base channel (beginning 28th Dec 2016) with several nesting Base channels of lesser degree now emerging.
* Thick lines (Blue, Orange, Red) are 200, 100, 50 week MA. Thin Blue line is 200 DMA.
* Invalidation @ 0.02629 on this chart.
Time-derivatives of Price Position using KC Wave AnalysisTime-derivatives of price movement concept. This model has price represent position, Base channel gradient represent velocity, Acceleration channel gradient represent acceleration and acceleration delta represent jerk. These account for the first Four time derivatives and may be used to infer market system modality.
1, Change of position yields velocity (price channel discovery)
2, Change of velocity yields acceleration (market mode discovery)
3, Change of acceleration yields jerk (motive exuberance discovery)
Base Channel Break and Re-test from above.Algo has popped out of it's Base channel and is now re-testing from above. Suitable profit targets for an entry any time now are the shadow-channel boundaries (Blue parallel lines above the channel). One strategy I've been using of late is to sell 50% at the first and a further 25% at the second (if prices makes it).
Wave 1 Leading Diagonal in ProgressContrary to my previous TA I now believe that BTC is manifesting a Wave 1 leading diagonal.
I expect this to peak at about ~$9044 before a 50%+ retracement for it's wave 2.
Once this retracement is complete then the stage is set for wave 3 with a peak at around ~$11.8k.