ALGO: Likely to trend up from here...Similar setup in the weekly as other alts, $ALGO is looking quite good from a reward to risk standpoint.
Best of luck.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
Keyhiddenlevels
$EEM: Interesting indicator, flashing caution by mid DecemberEmerging markets are flashing an interesting signal here, the weekly trend is up, and strongly, but will expire its current advance by the week ending on Dec 18. If we get some kind of unexpected issue before COVID vaccines are widely available, we could get some kind of correction here perhaps. Alternatively, we get a sideways consolidation and the markets keep rallying until vaccines roll out, by March give or take. This is what many charts seem to indicate. Definitely vital to monitor the action here and be ready to react once we get confirmation of one or the other.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
BTC Dominance: Trending up, if it breaks out...I can see a big rally in Bitcoin Market Cap Dominance here. We had a good signal which I pointed out in my previous chart, both the decline until the target, as well as the move up rebounding from it as it flashed a bottom signal. Alts are weak here, most look like trending down further vs $Bitcoin so I would urge investors to hold $Bitcoin rather than alts here. With some exceptions, overall, the altbtc ratio will likely trend lower still as a whole.
Next step is seeing how it acts when the cyan box above is retested in a couple weeks.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
Crude Oil futures: Big upside possibleIt seems Crude oil is about to stage a massive rally lasting 17 weeks. I can see it going between $51 and $77, best case scenario.
Ideally it should hold over 37.14 here, to not disrupt the currently active bullish signals on chart. The weekly timeframe and monthly timeframe are a good way to frame the price action patterns that have clearly indicated what price behavior would do since the COVID crash, so they are quite reliable here. Both suggest big upside is possible, so definitely time to be long and pay attention.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
UNI: Good daily trend here...Uniswap has a good trend going here, last signal worked quickly, and now we have a potential continuation scenario. Let's see how this goes, I would give this very high probability of moving to the target on time if we break resistance here.
Best of luck,
Ivan Labrie.
GBPJPY KEY LEVEL + WAITING ZONESGBPJPY KEY LEVEL + WAITING ZONES. Entering only in grey areas and waiting in the red zones.
$LINKUSD: Weekly uptrend active...Target is on chart, should climb as per the cyan arrow.
Similar to the chart setup in $ETHUSD.
Alts likely to play catch up here.
Signal allows a relatively tight stop, if you buy here or on retrace.
Best of luck,
Ivan Labrie.
Pair trade: Long $TSLA, short $NIO$NIO is extremely over valued here, their competition in China is fierce, and $TSLA is leaps and bounds ahead of what they can achieve. Quarterly deliveries were like 1/10 of what $TSLA delivered in the last quarter that was announced...Sentiment is extreme and after complacency and euphoria we had a sharp down day at the top. There is a fund shorting it, and Ray Dalio bragging about his position in the stock recently. It's ripe for a short vs $TSLA, which is about to rally in the weekly timeframe. Valuation is wild compared to $TSLA, and competitive advantage goes to $TSLA here, considering all variables and the sales it has in China as well as their pricing for made in China cars.
You should short the same dollar amount of $NIO shares as you long $TSLA shares to get the pair trade going. I'd aim for a retest of 21.33 in this ratio at least, or could go into new highs as well. A 5-15% position would be fine here. Risk is roughly 3.06 to make 12.16, so a 3.97:1 reward to risk ratio.
Best of luck,
Ivan Labrie.
best levels for ng derived 5 months beforeng can play with these main key levels. we can trade as per trend and range with a break or reverse as per our trading style
Nasdaq vs S&P500: Ratio seems to have toppedFundamentals, technicals and sentiment aligned for a massive top in the ratio of US Tech Stocks vs the Broad Market here. Positioning and expectations of traders, hedge funds and everyone were shocked recently, with a massive rotation towards value stocks and commodities that caught everyone off guard. All the alpha collected during the year for Jim Simmons funds was erased in one day when the $PFE vaccine data came out. Now we keep getting more fundamental boosts to the notion that lockdowns are a thing of the past...or will be very soon.
This puts pressure on inflation expectations here, due to unprecedented stimulus and currency debasing that we endured globally, so the pre existing trends that were born out of a deflationary phase are in danger of reversing dramatically. Tech/Growth stocks, a long time favorite of investors since 2009 might be at a peak vs Value stocks and commodities, Sovereign bonds are likely a huge short, with a massive debt bubble in all of the world, as interest rates are set to move higher from here onwards as a response to ballooning deficits and govt spending as a response to the pandemic emergency. Returning to normal will kickstart inflation that was delayed only by an artificial hibernation of economic output, but was already visible in certain goods, just not in energy yet.
Energy stocks are largely mispriced, with fund managers love for renewable/solar/EV vehicles as the objective of the massive funds they divested from energy for a long time. I don't think $TSLA itself is a bad investment as it can continue to grow due to spectacular fundamentals, but the pace of growth in these investments will likely underperform the recovery in oil, airlines, energy, value names, etc. going forward.
Vaccine stocks are likely to perform well for now, given strong technical signals in both $PFE and $MRNA, but I am not invested in them personally, although it would be interesting to monitor for opportunities.
Refer to my Crude Oil publication below for more insights on the technical chart of oil.
Cheers!
Ivan Labrie.
TAN: Huge topI think we are seeing a massive top in many stocks, solar looks specially vulnerable and it's one of the sectors I'm short of.
If it doesn't break over today's high going forward chances are it is dropping all the way back down...We would need a Biden victory, or a tax law change for this to come to pass though (oil dropping would also help, or subsidies going away).
Oil itself flashed a long term short signal this week, so I like this idea a lot here.
Best of luck,
Ivan Labrie.
#BTCUSD: Long term signal potentially valid...Question is: do we get a crash together with stocks near EOY? Will $BTCUSD decouple significantly and start outperforming tech stocks?
I suspect we might start to see inflation expectations increase substantially as economic activity resumes across the globe, people certainly are saturated with the whole COVID situation, and even scientists from the World Health Organization doubt the lock downs are a good solution for the pandemic, as economic damage caused by it vastly outsizes the human lives the pandemic itself would cost if restrictions were lifted.
I can smell a significant paradigm shift, if this takes place, where big ongoing trends would reverse, like the performance of value stocks compared to growth stocks, commodities vs stocks, interest rates trending down, and inflation being muted. An interesting trade to ride this juncture is to buy cryptocurrencies when viable. That said, this was an obvious trade many followed, but recent bouts of weakness likely shook most people out before the $PYPL news came out. I'm keen on seeing what the US launch brings forth, since the recent surge in prices has a lot to do with it (together with companies acquiring $Bitcoin for their treasuries as a hedge for inflation should it manifest itself).
Tech stocks are a huge part of the S&P500 index price movement, and since the index suggests it is entering a decade long sideways bear market akin to 2000 to 2009, I would be hesitant to blindly buy and hold overvalued stocks in this environment. We do need $Bitcoin to decouple from this if we expect a major trend, else it might be gridlocked in a constant sideways range for ages to come.
I'm open to substantial declines taking place after this strength fades, and specially if $PYPL's new feature disappoints like Bakkt futures initially did (Back then people were expecting Libra and Bakkt to generate tremendous interest and buying pressure in $Bitcoin, which never happened and led to a long and brutal sideways bear market until March 2020).
This scenario is invalidated if we go below $9132.96-9049.54, else expect a relatively steady uptrend over the long haul.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
#BTCUSD: Bullish until the end of November...I suspect we are seeing a failure in the bearish signal we had recently, and yet another bullish trend in the weekly timeframe here. The M2 adjusted chart is highly interesting as it predicts we may see prices break the 2019 top briefly, I fear this might lead to an extreme in bullish sentiment a subsequent market crash towards lows not seen since the COVID bottom.
I remain cautiously bullish, and patiently waiting to short the top when it materializes as per this analysis.
Here's the spot chart for reference:
Note this is a bullish idea for now, potentially leading to a major market top by the time it peaks as anticipated.
The commitment of traders report shows that CME short sellers keep increasing their short position, and asset managers buying (over record levels). At some point short sellers are likely to win, as has been the case so far.
Disclaimer: We're long for the time being.
Best of luck!
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
SPX: Rally until Nov 20...then brace yourselvesLooks like we have a confirmed uptrend signal here, which is what I expected to happen since the market created a big support level indicating the smart money absorbed the last crash.
It's interesting that for most people, it borders on lunacy to be long risk ahead of the POTUS elections, but it seems to be the right thing to do. I suspect we will get a Trump victory, with the market moving higher steadily until Nov 20th, roughly.
The crash that follows might be of significant proportions, as the post COVID world brought forth many problematic changes to fundamentals, making the current rally unsustainable, once we go back to normal and end lock downs globally. Without some miracle, I think we will see interest rates go up, inflation rear its ugly head and markets gyrate in a large volatile sideways range similar to the one that took place from 1997 to 2011. In such an environment, it won't be easy to generate returns from investments in equities, and we might see commodities outperform equities, value outperform growth, and many other relative performance trends reverse course (like the long US Tech, short the world trend) which a deflationary world allowed to exist. Stock picking and market timing will make a big difference in this new world.
Best of luck,
Ivan Labrie.
EURUSD 6 Oct 2020 P2 -Algo bids, but I'm not a buyer.Not legal and financial advice; any information provided here is only the personal opinion of the author.
CADCHF Ascending Channel BreakoutCADCHF is breaking out of an Ascending channel on the 4 hour time frame, and is currently hovering around price level 0.69, and i'm looking for it to fall bearish to price zone 0.68.
GBPJPY Key LevelGJ is retesting a key level, if it fails to hold, it will most likely go bearish and break the trend line, if it holds its, going bullish to the next key level
SPY: Market could have peakedThe last bullish signal we had, has expired in the weekly timeframe, and many stocks started to collapse today. There's a chance support holds here if the market slows down the fall for a few hours and liquidity returns to markets, but, risk is very elevated. I've been exiting my remaining bullish positions, and have been long $VIXY for a couple weeks already, now exposed to bearish positions in select names only. For the time being. I'm keen on buying value stocks if the opportunities present themselves again, but also keen on shorting overvalued stocks.
Bitcoin has taken a nosedive today as well, and triggered a weekly bearish signal in the money supply adjusted chart, as per my other publication. I urge you to be careful going forward, if the market hasn't peaked, which we will know for sure once we see liquidity return and $VIX start dropping, the risk of being exposed on the long side is very high.
Charts give good low risk opportunities if one knows what to look for. This is a trader's market, investors might not fare well a long time.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
Bitcoin dominance: Alt season until December?This is what the charts seem to suggest, might coincide with a period of sideways action in $BTCUSD, perhaps awakening once again by the end of 2020. I'm not keen on trading $BTCUSD or large cap alts while they are sideways and choppy but many smaller coins have good setups. Please be careful with sizing and liquidity when trading altcoins. I'd suggest small position sizing and risk of 1% per trade max. Do your own due diligence there, I have a few setups that I reserve for my clients that I won't share here, but you can find them if you research enough. Most of the time it seems they rally before news catalysts are known, to then peak in a typical sell the news fashion, but at times they keep going into a larger trend, so it is a case per case thing.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
$WST: Weekly trend signal activeWe have a nice signal here in $WST, a trend signal lasting until the 2nd week of October at least, as long as prices hold over the $270 mark. A clear beneficiary of the pandemic, $WST has been growing steadily for a long time, and although overvalued, I think we can squeeze some more upside from the stock before a major top forms.
It will be interesting to see how it acts going into the next quarterly report.
I'm using a proprietary strategy to benefit from these trend signals, you can trade this setup with long stock positions or using options. I'm favoring options for the most part lately, due to the elevated downside risks we have for the time being. I'm skeptical but open to the possibility of a rally peaking by October or EOY, before witneseeing the next large scale correction across most asset classes like we had in February.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
Look for Short entry on AUDCADWait for an rejection or wick in this area then wait for that rejection to close, then take the short position.
Look for Short entry on AUDUSDWait for an rejection or wick in this area then wait for that rejection to close, then take the short position.
BTCUSD: Potential for another crash from here...We will know within a couple weeks with more certainty but this level could inflict serious pain on crypto holders.
I'm out of my long positions and mostly lending since we broke down after failing to break out above resistance a few days ago.
I suspect the stock market is about to stage yet another COVID crash, accompanied by other asset classes also falling, so I trimmed all my positions and started positioning myself in bearish bets across the board, gradually. Given the actions of central banks throughout the world, I chose to adjust the price to the money supply of the dollar to get a better idea of what price is for $Bitcoin now. This puts it back at levels from where we crashed a few times already.
As an extra, CME positioning starts to turn bearish as well, similarly to past tops. Sentiment has gotten overboard with altcoins being pumped left and right by yield farmers buying them at centralized exchanges when viable, and also decreased the crypto balances at exchanges dramatically, causing dramatic moves due to reduced liquidity.
Full confirmation of this scenario would come with a rapid decline from this area by the end of August, by then, odds of this scenario taking place will increase dramatically.
Best of luck, stay safe.
Ivan Labrie.
