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EURUSD: Monitoring the declineEURUSD didn't hold the ECB key level support, and closed below it. If today's bar plots a daily HIGH above the 1.7490 mark on close, we might still have a chance to enter longs tomorrow, on a break of today's high, and stop under today's low. Right now, I'd reccomend waiting one session, and monitoring the activity as I describe. This chart depicts the ECB key levels, in light blue, solid lines, for the 2015 levels, and purple for 2016 levels. Thinner lines, are less significant reactions, which have lower probability of affecting price action. The dashed lines show the Brexit, Jackson Hole and US presidential election key levels, which coincide with the biggest VIX spikes this year. There is a weekly range expansion decline, so we have to remain vigilant. If price doesn't hit 1.05454 before December 5th, we have bigger odds of a reversal to the upside. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
XAUUSD: Timing a bottom in commodities...I think we could be about to see a turn in commodities again, but I'm still not entirely sure about gold. We can either rally from here, and don't make any new daily low, or break down, stop everyone out, and test the zone between 1200 and 1180, before turning up again. This would depend on how equities behave, and what the flow of fundamental events is this week, something I can't yet decipher the outcome of. You can buy a half position, if we break above yesterday's high, and if stopped out at yesterday's low, wait to reenter longs lower, or simply stand aside, and wait for a clearer signal, once we break above the previous 3 days' range. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by IvanLabrie
SPX: Text book time at mode signalsThe weekly signals are very clear and have been very precise in determining the direction, time duration of moves and the precise turning point when each move was exhausted so far. You can see that we took off, from 2016's low, formed an accumulation range, from that level we had a breakout, which as per the 'Time at mode' trend analysis logic, predicts a target for both time and price. Once the target got hit, the market can either form a new accumulation range, higher, for an equivalent time duration, or if it doesn't have enough steam to trend in this way, it returns to the signal mode, or accumulation range from where we previously broke out from. The trip back to it usually takes the same time that the uptrend duration had, as a possible time duration for the rally. The SPX chart is crystal clear in this regard, and we can see that it obeyed all the 'Time at mode' rules with precision, giving us great trades if we're brave enough to take them, even while going against the majority of traders. Now, that we have landed on support, we had a massive bull run, that managed to break above the 'distribution range' from where the decline took off, crushing and trapping all bears, margin shorts, and traders who were sitting on the sidelines, sitting in piles of cash until the elections, or before, due to 'poor valuation multiples', bad weather, crude oil's decline, ISIS, Trump, Brexit, Deutsche Bank fear, etc. All this negativity reached the zenith here, and we had enough 'despair' to form a bottom. Since we broke above the downtrend mode, the aforementioned distribution range, prices can now proceed to fulfill the downtrend's range target, but to the upside, giving us an intermediate term target at 2228, where I expect prices to stall for some time. If we don't stall, we'll see a continued rally, possibly hitting 2500 in the longer term. For this to happen we need another big fundamental catalyst, else we'll stall once the target is hit, which is the more logical outcome here. Conclusion: stay long, specially if you bought below 2100. There will be plenty of opportunities in undervalued companies too, so don't miss mine and Tim West publications, contact me for information on the signals service, or mentoring, and don't forget to check out the Key Hidden Levels chatroom for some free market commentary every day. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
FX:SPX500Long
by IvanLabrie
2
NZDUSD: Potential turning pointNZDUSD is at a good support zone, and could turn up from here, following gold, which is very oversold. I'm waiting to enter long here, I'd like to see how today's bar acts, to buy into strength going forward. You shouldn't rush into gold or NZDUSD longs right away, but, should monitor how today behaves first. The negative news surrounding New Zealand serve as an extra ingredient, to give us enough bearish sentiment for a bottom in here: www.bloomberg.com Live cattle and milk futures remain bullish, and gold might be about to bottom after stopping out longs and making perma-bulls give up, hopefully, very soon. If you want to learn more about the trade entry, and risk management, contact me via pm. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
4
INTC: Great correction to buy more or enter for the first timeINTC gave us a nice correction after the earnings report, sending it close to support at 34.90 and also landing on the lower deviation of a linear regression channel that I started from 2016's low, and anchored the other end to the highest high on October 10th. The new Key Earnings Level should act as a magnet propelling prices back up to 36.50 quickly. Once we break above it, and start moving up again, price will resume the long term uptrend. Check related ideas for more information regarding the trend duration, targets and more. Good luck! Ivan Labrie.
NASDAQ:INTCLong
by IvanLabrie
1
EURUSD: Neutral long term stance, potentially bearish long termIn this chart I show you the time at mode signal active on chart. Currently, there's a 6 month timeframe downtrend that demands price to hit 0.91505 by May-July 2019, or sooner, and a 2 month signal that is very close to confirming. Confirmation for this signal can come if we hit 1,07422 during October, or if November-December closes with a high that is lower than 1.10971. There's a kicker here though, the RgMov indicator -which plots a visual representation of investor sentiment, obtained using a proprietary calculation developed by my mentor, Tim West- is showing a deeper decline than the one observed on the previous bottom, which could be a bullish signal, if we get further confirmation, or simply an increase in bearish sentiment. If we don't see 0.95047 hit during the next 2 months, this would constitute a bullish signal on close, and I could envision this happening if the Fed disappoints the bears by not hiking interest rates on the December FOMC meeting. For now, I'm flat EURUSD, but I have long positions in USDSEK, USDJPY, USDCHF and USDNOK. I'll be monitoring the progress in the dollar to either hold my trades anticipating the lofty long term targets seen here, or, look to flip long if we get reasons to do so. The best thing is that we will get a big long term signal within 2 months. Stay tuned for updates. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
by IvanLabrie
USDMXN: Fading the irrational rally, viva Mexico!This morning I bought an $MXF stake at the open, and shorted USDMXN at 20.0022. I think we might be in the presence of an 'ending diagonal triangle', or terminal wedge, in Elliott Wave parlance, in particular according to the Neowave rules. If that's the case, we will a see brutal rally in the Peso, sending USDMXN down to 16.43 in approximately the time the arrow indicates on chart. My clients are long MXF but not in the USDMXN trade, it is a higher risk trade, so only take it if you have higher risk tolerance and don't risk over 1% on it. The initial move in equities and the peso made absolutely no sense in my opinion after discussing it with Tim West. We've been buying on weakness today, along with my clients and the people over at the Key Hidden Levels chatroom -and with great results if I may add-. Apparently Carl Icahn tagged along, buying a neat 1 billion worth of stocks today. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Short
by IvanLabrie
7
AUDUSD: Breaking above the rate cut key levelAUDUSD is set to start accelerating as the massive long term accumulation pattern leads to a rally of monthly scale here. If not long, jump in now with 0.5% risk. Your downside risk is 60 pips give or take, for aggressive traders, and a drop back to 0.76 for more conservative long term positions. Once we move above 0.7350, we'll have further confirmation that the long term rally I predict is underway and we can expect prices close to 0.84 to get hit. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
Gold/Silver ratio: Long term bearish declineThe Gold/Silver ratio shows an interesting setup here, and correlation to inverted SPX, which points to the nature of the ratio's movement tied to risk off/on phases. This has to do with the real world applications silver has as an industrial metal, compared to gold's function as a store of value and risk off protection. I think we can see a long term decline, implying the price of silver will either appreciate or depreciate less than the price of gold, in comparison to it at least. It's probably a good trade to take as a pair, which if you're using futures, implies you use a 2 to 3 ratio, selling 2 GC contracts and buying 3 SI contracts to enter the trade with reduced margin requirements. (I think there's a new contract for the ratio alone, but not familiar with it). You should size the trade based on risking 1% to 2% max if the price were to go against you coming back to 70.43. In the case of CFD or FX traders, you could open trades in the XAUUSD and XAGUSD instruments, or using this XAUXAG or XAGXAU contracts if they exist in your platform. If you own physical gold, exchanging it for silver makes sense at this point (if you didn't already). Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
OANDA:XAUXAGShort
by IvanLabrie
2