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Keylevel

AUD/CAD Sell Strategy: Testing Resistance with Downside Targe Trade Setup: AUD/CAD is currently selling at 0.9266, targeting 0.8939. Key Resistance Level: The 0.9270 level acts as resistance, aligning with a significant Fibonacci retracement. Recent High & Low: High: Recent high around 0.9380. Low: Current low near 0.9102. Technical Signals: Resistance at 0.9270 marks a potential reversal zone, reflecting selling pressure. Bearish momentum is expected toward 0.8939, which is contingent on sustained downward movement. Market Context: Recent highs and lows frame a broad trading range, with Fibonacci levels adding technical validity to sell-side positions near resistance​
Short
by MahabubAabir
Bitcoin (BTC) in No-Trade Zone, Approaching Critical LevelsCurrent Market Situation: Bitcoin (BTC) appears unstoppable as it heads towards the crucial $60,000 zone. No-Trade Zone: BTC remains in a no-trade zone, with potential triggers only occurring at key extremes. Key Levels to Watch: Upper Extreme: $60,000 Lower Extreme: $53,500 Trading Strategy: Wait for BTC to reach either the $60,000 upper extreme or the $53,500 lower extreme before considering any trades. Stay patient and watch these levels closely! 📈🚨 #Bitcoin #BTC #Crypto #MarketAnalysis #TechnicalAnalysis #Cryptocurrency #Trading #SupportAndResistance #NoTradeZone #KeyLevels
by Richtv_official
Bitcoin’s Pivotal Moment: Key Technical and Fundamental InsightsTechnical Analysis Neutral: 1 - Price action has been fluctuating in a falling channel from around the 1 March 2024 and appears to be respecting support and resistance lines since. 2 - Price has fallen 28% since ATH compared to the 56% crash in the previous cycle during the same period. Bearish: 1 - Price fell below the 125 day SMA level around the 20th of June and has been trading below since. 2 - The 60,000 BTC/USD psychological level has also been broken and not regained for approx 2 weeks. 3 - Volume since ATH has been approximately 7% over the same period in previous cycle. 4 - Price has clear short term bearish momentum Bullish: 1 - Subtle Bullish Divergence on the RSI chart 2 - Price is trading above the shaded support area supported by volume session profile and clear historical trends. 3 - Extreme Fear displayed on the Fear and greed index. Fundamental Analysis: 1 - Real GDP has grown consistently over the past 10 quarters. 2 - Inflation appears to be easing with new US CPI appear beating analysts estimates but concerns about being behind the curve estimating a inflation to rise again in the winter. 3 - Short term unemployment data seems improving but as interest rates are still high a record number of credit defaults occurring which could potentially lead to worsened employment data by end of year. 4 - Gold price hitting ATH reflecting uncertainty due to heightened geopolitical tension. Pattern A cup and handle formation can be observed since Nov 2021 but handle seems elongated which might invalidate such pattern. Summary: With the current Bitcoin price at $58,637 and a 50% increase YTD, we can assert that the market is still in a bullish cycle. However, some critical points need to be analysed. Technical indicators suggest that Bitcoin is trading at a crucial level. A breakdown below the $53,000 level would not inspire confidence and is likely to lead to a continuation down to the $49,500 level. This is a significant threshold, as a break below it could trigger substantial selling pressure. For Bitcoin to reverse this trend, it is crucial to reclaim the $60,000 psychological level, with trading above $61,000 providing confirmation. Subsequently, reclaiming the critical SMA level around $65,000 could likely lead to a new all-time high. Macro indicators suggest that most positive news has already been priced in. However, the overall geopolitical climate is radiating uncertainty, which is negative for the market. This is exacerbated by factors such as the upcoming US elections, the Ukraine-Russia conflict, and the Israel-Gaza conflict.Additionally, the Bitcoin hash rate is falling for the first time in two years, though a short-term drop does not confirm a long-term trend. Given these factors, I believe that BTC/USD will continue to trend downward in the short term until approximately late August/early September. The extent of this downward trend will depend on the behaviour at the key levels mentioned and the global climate. A reclaim of $65,000 would invalidate this bearish outlook.
BINANCE:BTCUSDShort
by Parsa_f
1
GBPUSD - Strong Rally Above 1.2675The GBPUSD has traded above the Weekly Key Price of 1.2675, establishing an uptrend in the 15-minute timeframe. Although the weekly, daily, 4-hour, and 1-hour timeframes are bearish, we focus on trading what we observe in the current timeframe. With the price trading above 1.2675 and a bullish wave structure, our action is to either buy or remain on the sidelines as long as the price stays above this key level. Buy Entry: 1.2385 Technical Stop Loss: 1.2665 Key Level Stop: Below 1.2675 Always think in probabilities.
Long
by Charts247TradingAcademy
3
Crude Oil peaks on OverSupply of Commercial Held Barrels?Hello Traders.. Today Crude Oil went up and up and up and was beginning to resemble a small cap crypto.. this was until US Inventories data release showed an oversupply of 2/3 items. The number of barrels held by Commerical firms was forecasted to decrease by -1.2 million barrels in this weeks readings. Maybe this is why we saw crude hiking up and up (+1.15$) throughout Asian session and London session. The Actual reading, released 30 minutes prior to London close, showed an increase in the number of barrels held by commercial firms. 3.7M is the number. This increase is signnifcant , especially since the last 4 releases have been forecasted to show a decrease in the number of barrels held . With an oversupply, price naturally dropped , abiding to the laws of supply and demand. In our previous forecast we were anticipating a retest of 77.8 and consequential increase. We indeed observed this after price dropped dramatically. We saw 77.8 1Hr Zone hold firm. The Monthly, Weekly and Daily timeframes are still screaming buys and I'm still thinking there is some momentum bullish in the market. These are the prices that I like for scalping in the upcoming sessions. 78.80 1hr zone, 77.8 1hr zone. 77.30 is target for sells for upcmoming session while 79.25 is the target for longs in the upcoming sessions.
TVC:USOILLong
by ShrewdCatfx
2
XAUUSD on new hourly floorI have a weekly analysis here where we see that Gold is reaching a new hourly floor at an Intraday Key Level. We do not know where its going, but it looks like buyers get more and more intersted depending if they expect a lower reversal or not. (I do not think we need more resistance to start looking for reversal patterns in H1 towards bullish) Will keep you updated. For me the course doesnt have enough momentum and power yet for a clear direction. Daily Key Level is activated and expecting a reversal towards bullish for the beginning of the week. Also check volume and available contracts, sometimes there are enough orders on friday of last week to define a direction. If not, we are expecting up and down movements around the POC (point of control) on Monday.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Heaven10
Dollar Strength today but 1.08455 Bounce? EurUsd // Hello traders! EurUsd went down today which we were not expecting. We were anticipating more of an increase in price for a few reasons. 1) Monthly candle is bullish 2) Buy the rumor of cutting rates for the Eur on next weeks announcement 3) The weekly candle last week closed above weekly support level 1.08361. However, as always, we plan for both scenarios for our Intra-Day trading approach and so we actually suggested potential sells off 1.08845 .. the Daily Resistance Level! So we are not surprised to see that the market created a Daily high this week at this price level. We called out longs from the weekly level, 1.0867 , which played out very well for a continuation trade 1 hour after London open. The Daily Candle just closed a shooting star candle, rejecting the Daily Resistance zone, 1.08845. Thus far, the new daily candle has pulled down in line with this sell pressure. If you observe the last 4hr candle of the previous daily candle, this was the clue that the market provided us for this nice move down during Asian session. The weekly candle right now has no body and has a much larger top wick, denoting rejection to the upside. In the short term here I can observe a bounce from our strong 4hr level 1.08455. How will this level sustain, not sure. I like scalp buys the most with a 1hr confrimation candle rejection from the weekly level 1.08361. I also like sells from 1.08606 1hr level and our weekly level 1.0867. The other levels can very well be relevant and so we must remain flexible in our bias of the markets direction in our short term approach. Not Financial advice. Safe Trading.
Long
by ShrewdCatfx
Key Levels and what you need to know about themThere are Key Levels on every timeframe. But the ones that are relevant are the ones that agree in between timeframes. There are Swing Key Levels, Intraday Keylevels /agree on H4 + H1) and Scalpers Key Levels (I use those that agree on H1 and M30). Key Levels are zones where the market has not decided yet which direction it will choose, but as a trader you have to be one step ahead and speculate on it. Key Levels of higher time frames are always dominant. So when you scalp make sure you are not landing in between the buyers and sellers fight of swing or intraday traders. How to apply on low risk: - Have a D1 ceiling and floor, have an H1 ceiling and floor. Generally don't sell on floors and don't buy at ceilings. - Look for reversals around those areas (3 peak patterns or longer consolidations rejecting an important zone) - Be careful at Key Levels (that is everything in between the floor and the ceiling) - Generally buy at floors and sell at ceilings when you have: a. indication of reversal b. break of structure indication with candle close (not few pip around the zone, it should clearly break with close) c. momentum pushing like "engulfing patterns", long candles (towards your direction), long wigs (towards the opposite direction), Dojis (indicates end of wave and short term change of direction) How to apply on middle risk: - buy when it breaks the ceiling with volatility specific stop loss of asset - sell when it breaks the floor with volatility specific stop loss of asset Also take a look at my post about specific volatility of assets. Linked below.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by Heaven10
U.S. Stock indices higher on Bad economic data? 🤔Risk-On Sentiment has taken over the markets today despite bad manufacturing and services data.. and it began yesterday on Nasdaq with the Daily candle closing back above the Daily Level 17,164. Other confluences for the increase on Nasdaq include 1) Jerome Powell's hawkish comments on April 16th. 2) Dollar Index 5 minutes chart : Here we can observe the Risk on sentiment with the data this morning. The dollar Index represents the U.S. dollar of course and puts it againsgt a basket of currecies(4) . Since the USD is a safe haven.. and the dollar index is going down.. this represents money flowing into other asset classes as ivestors see better retruns elsewhere such as Nasdaq (Risk-On U.S. stock index). This is what we would expect to see with bad USD data 3)The Fakeout price action on Monday suggesting Buys today 4) Volatility Index (Vix) 5 minutes chart : We can observe that price decreased during london session and through the not so great USD data release. This means that more investors are buying call options in the S&P500 companies anticpating that the stock indexes will rebound to the upside. This could have been correlated with buying the stock indexes like Nasdaq after it jumped up with the data release this morning. Let me know what your thoughts are on the Nasdaq! These publications are for general and educational purposes only. Not trading or financial advice.
NLong
by ShrewdCatfx
Bullish Euro data and Hawkish Fedspeak sends EU higherHello traders.. Ever Since April 16th we can observe a pullback on Eurusd. We recieved bullish fedspeak on April 16th, as Chairman Powell mentioned the recent interest rate hike intervention is not having it's intended affect. The jobs market is hot but the real issue is 2 consecutive months of increasing inflation. This issue may cause interest rates to remain high or even increase in due time to slow down the economy. We've seen a slight change in sentiment as the Dollar index has been ranging and selling off since this announcement. Possibly because the market is pricing in another (Risk-On) Interest rate increase by the Fed at the next meeting. This is causing market participants to put money into other asset classes that may offer a better return. It's not going into gold since gold is down 3% since the statement.. gold is a Risk-Off and safe haven asset class and one may expect this. It is neither going into Oil, as Oil is down 3.07% since the statement. Definitely not the stock indices, Nasdaq for example is down 2.23% since the statement. Maybe some of it is going into Bonds as the 10Yr Yield is down .5% since the statement. More has gone into Bitcoin, as it is up 2.74% since the statement. Moreso, the monies that have been flowing out of the USD since the announcement appear to be going Risk-On currencies. The Aud/Usd pair is up 1.45% since the announcement.. The NZD/USD pair is up .90% since the announcement.. Now we sort of see where the flow is going. Moving forward with EU, it is possible we may continue to pullback with this current Risk-On currencies market sentiment. This next daily candle is contending with the new daily resistance level, 1.07. These are my favorite levels in the short term here.
Long
by ShrewdCatfx
1
EurUsd - How long will Risk-On sentiment last?Hello traders.. For EurUsd we observed a very nice swing to the upside over the previous day of trading as decent Eur data beat Usd data for services and manufacturing PMI. We saw initial upside with the Eur data shortly after London open and this was followed by a pullback. Only until more data was released during NY session , we were to see another bounce to the upside. Risk on sentiment was the name of the game today as the Dollar index sold off with the Bad USD data. This was also coupled with a descending Vix and rising U.S. stock indexes leading up to and with the Bad USD data. The monthly candle is currently pulling back up. The weekly candle has shot past the previous weekly high by about 15-20ish pips. The Daily candle closed strongly bullish today, suggesting some more upside moving into this next day of trading.. we have no news in the upcoming session. Asian has pushed up slightly to begin the day. Key prices to watch in the upcoming session 1.0701, 1.06936
by ShrewdCatfx
Beginning of Tuesday's trading.. Forex markets 😼Hello traders.. EurUsd is about 87 pips from our monthly support level at 1.057.. not too far. The closest we've come was last Tuesday during the hawkish fed speech. Protecting against higher inflation is indeed important and slowing down economic growth as a result may be the only way. The weekly candle is back to being at Break even. The Daily candle today closed slighty bearish, a doji candle really. We went down during London and retraced the move back p during NY session. TheLow of the day was 4 minutes after New York stock exchange open. We saw a nice continuation of momentum with the new NY 4hr candle, to follow London bearish momentum. However, this was short lived as 1hr candles never quite managed to dig below the 1.06336 weekly support level. It's safe to say at this point that we are ranging and the volatility this week has been low.. but I suppose it's only Monday. End of Monday and around Asian session to begin Tuesday's trading has a tendency to be a turning point in the market for a good run.. How far? not sure.. maybe we can see 30-40 pips down to structural lows and around the weekly level 1.06336 and the Daily level 1.06184. If price pulls up higher, 1.067 could bbe a good entry point for either a small scalp or longer hold back to structural lows as we jsut mentioned. Pay attention to how candles interact with 1.065.. this will give us hints about further direction.
Short
by ShrewdCatfx
Oil Pulls back off the Daily LowsOil decreased during London session as we were anticipating from our last Analysis. We are still anticipating a further decrease in the medium term but in the short term here we may pullback. This is what the price action is telling us as we have pin Bar candles on the 1hr and 4hr charts that printed at our 2 daily support level's 81.22 and 80.64. This suggests some bullishness in the short term and a possible retracment towards our 4hr resistance zone 82.52. Factors that support a Risk-On push include a decreasing Vix on the day, a intraday downtrend on the Gold price suggesting risk on sentiment.
TVC:USOILLong
by ShrewdCatfx
EurUsd: Short-Term Eur strength & Pullback possibleHello Traders.. Another week and more price action to anticipate in the Forex market. EurUsd: As we enter the 4th week of April our Monthly candle is still bearish with a solid bearish body. Last week we came very close to a Monthly support level at 1.057. The low of the week was on Tuesday and coincided with a Hawkish Fed speech. The weekly candle closed bullish and we now have a weekly support level at 1.0649. The weekly candle closed a small body doji - looking candle with a larger top wick. The new week gapped up 5 pips. The daily candle's price action from last week looks quite subdued. Looking for buys on EurUsd still apears risky to me as we still have hot jobs data and rising inflation. We had hawkish fed speech last week which means higher potential rates for the USD. This means USD could be increasingly used in the Carry trade, an even better reason to look for USD strength. Not much has changed and yes we can observe a pullback , with Eur Strength. Overall bearish on EurUsd but trading a pullback to the upside is definitely possible. We'll have to see how EurUsd reacts with the Daily resistance level 1.06726. The USD Index ended last week pulling back from a Daily Resistance level.. and we've done exactly that after 8 hours at the beginning of this new week. This could indicate Eur strength in the coming 2 sessions. Although I'm anticpating a higher Vix and lower Oil prices. It may be too early in the week for a Lower EurUsd.. we may observe short term Eur strength as a result.
by ShrewdCatfx
GBPJPY Higher after JPY fundamentals ChangeWe may observe that GBPJPY has hit it's head several times at 192.803 and has failed to break above this level. All week we've been ranging after moving slightly up early in the week. Price wants to go up and since the Bank of Japan recently increased interest rates for the first time in many years, we may very well anticipate a continued trend on GBPJPY to the upside. This is a rare occasion when buying around the highs has less risk due to the fundamentals. When a market touches a zone and returns this many times, the zone will eventually breakdown. 193.313 Daily zone and monthly zone 193.639 are our bullish targets for GBPJPY. At our monthly zone we may anticipate alot of profit taking and a steep pullback to clear liquidity. Price appears to be forming support at the Daily Level now(192.355) on this thursday NY session, April 18th 24'
Long
by ShrewdCatfx
Change in Sentiment? 😐 EurUsdHello Traders.. EurUsd just dropped off last week. Those market participants who caught this massive selloff may be thinking of taking some chips off the table. This coincides with a bullish trend in bond yields and the S&P futures wasting no time heading to the upside to begin the week. The Iran and Israel conflict adds a layer of complexity to this new week of money movement. In the short term I am looking to the upside on EurUsd as the new weeks kicks off. The previous weekly candle closed with a 14 pips bottom wick and a 195 pips body. Some exhaustion from sellers may cause the buyers to take over to begin the week here for EU. My short-term targets for the next sessions are 1.06840. We may recieve a pullback to consolidate and retest 1.06325 as well prior to more buying pressure on EU. Caution, this is a countertrend analysis and should be taken with a grain of salt. Not Financial advice, just for general information and educational purposes only.
Long
by ShrewdCatfx
EurUsd : Usd Fundamental dominance ⚗️Hello traders.. so yes indeed we did get a very nice push down on EurUsd with CPI data. I put out Short Analyses on Sunday/Monday around Pre-London outlining the fear and market uncertainty that increasing inflation brings into the markets. The inflation reading CPI was expected to rise from 3,2% to 3.4% YoY. The reading came out as 3.5% YoY and we dropped hard on EurUsd. The price action preceding CPI data was suspicious as we had a SHooting star candle last Thursday followed by a hanging man candle on Friday.. caused by strong jobs data. The Monday daily candle this week closed bullish yes, but this candle was less than half the size of the large bullish engulfing candle last wednesday. It was also on a Monday & we still had the rest of the week's price action to observe. On Tuesday , Yesterday, we printed another shooting star candle as we pinned past the previous week's high price. See what I'm seeing here? Then we couple this withg strong USD jobs data last friday and we have many confluences for a decrease in the market. The best part is that you dont even need to hold tthrough news. You can wait until the data comes out and then trade with the momentum on the 1m timeframe. For the new day of trading, I can observe EurUsd continuing to decrease although we are at a Daily support level 1.07422. This is a rare occasion when I completely okay selling at support lol. This is because of fundamentals and a nice pullback for liquidity early in the month for EurUsd. The first week of April was liquidity. Target for end of week on EurUsd is 1.06882
Short
by ShrewdCatfx
EurUsd.. End of week Momentum 🕴️Hello traders.. we have the last 2 trading sessions of the week here. The monthly/weekly/Daily are all bearish. 4Hr market structure is bearish and we are creating a new 4hr resistance zone at 1.07261 after this 4hr candles closes in 30 minutes. Today we observed a continuation on EurUsd which was forecasted inadvance on this channel. It was relatively straight forward given the current fundamental backdrop in the markets with strong jobs datta last week and 2 consecutive inflation increases for March and April CPI releases. The large bearish engulfing candle also gave it away.. I really dont want to know who was trading against the trend this week. Anyways we currently have momentum in the market and I believe we will retest the previous daily low at 1.06992 4hr support zone. We outlined this zone in the analysis yesterday as well. We rejected this zone at London close during the New york session today. We reached my short target for the week already.. 1.06992. We have a Daily support level at 1.07086. It's possible we may ignore all level's and drop to the next key level , weekly level 1.06834. We have consumer sentiment for USD forecasted to decrease slightly across the previous data point. The news may act as an catayst to continue dropping or Pullback to end the week. Important levels to watch 1.07261 and 1.07086. Watching how candles interact with these levels.
Short
by ShrewdCatfx
USD bounces back following Strong Jobs Data 🖤The EurUsd Monthly candle is bullish to begin the 2nd quarter and after the first week of Aprils trading. The weekly candle closed bullish as price rejected our key weekly support level 1.0771. The candle left a 40 pips top wick for this weeks candle to go fill in bullish momentum. However, we observed a shooting star candle on Thursday that closed below our 1.0837 Daily resistance level. The friday daily candle dropped and bounced back up after NFP news. Yet, price still managed to close bearish and below our daily resistance level 1.0837. A Shooting star candle followed by a Hanging man candle.. It's early in the month and I still think we can observe some USD strength. How long it will last im not sure.. It's early in the week and a downtrend on the 1hr timeframe back to Friday's low seems possible. We must observe how price acts around the 1.0844 4hr resistance level. Other Key level's include 1.0825 1hr zone, and 1.0805 4hr zone which is our short term target to begin the week here. We've observed strong jobs data 2 months in a row. March and April releases have both been strong.. this coupled with the fact that CPI is snaticpated to increase from 3.2% to 3.4% this week suggests a healthy consumer spending economy, strong USD. It also suggests more uncertainty regarding inflation because March increased YoY for CPI.. and now April? The fed is going in the opposite direction for it's goals.. Maybe institutions.. it's time to buy the USD safe haven asset of the world? Weekly timeframe Still ranging on the monthly timeframe but it appears the monthly candle is pulling up or is this a liquidity move preceding more USD strength.
Short
by ShrewdCatfx
4