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Kijun-sen

BTC - D1 - INTRADAY HIGH @ 55855, BUT...D1 : Another long white bullish candle has been triggered yesterday; today's ongoing price action is showing, for the time being another kind of picture. Indeed, after having, on one hand filled the Fibonacci retracement extension (78.6% @ 55072) and even pushing higher to an intraday high of 55855, BTC has been rejected by the former primary uptrend support trend line, which became a resistance. As a result, BTC reversed and is currently traded in the middle of the new uptrend channel in an ongoing bearish price action. Nevertheless, as we are on D1 observation, we need to wait the level today's closing to get confirmation of the upcoming development. SCENARIO A : BEARISH A daily closing below 53678 would trigger a dark cloud cover pattern which would already be the first signal of a trend reversal and a closing below the opening of yesterday's session @ 52427 would trigger a bearish engulfing pattern. A failure to hold above the former pivot level of 51530 would put the focus on the first significant support area, which is the cluster of the three following : Tenkan-Sen, Kijun-Sen and Mid Bollinger Band, being respectively @ 51074, 50687 and 50666. SCENARIO B : BULLISH A daily closing above yesterday's closing would be supportive for further upside having in mind a retest of the top zone of February (58000-58350)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTCUSD - H4 : CURRENTLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE CLOUDS...H4 : Currently in the middle of the clouds and below the Mid Bollinger Band and Kijun-Sen ! As mentioned earlier in my D1 analysis, the H4 clouds support zone, so far, worked perfectly well in rejecting 5 times breakout attempts... Current price action is showing a sideways move between Tenkan-Sen level on the downside and MBB & Kijun-Sen on the upside. Therefore, on short term, those area should be watch at very carefully as a breakout of one of those area will show the direction for the upcoming trading period. The clouds should also be considered as a good indicator as we should see soon or later either an upside or a downside breakout. For the time being, recent and current price action is likely to trigger a downside breakout of the clouds. In order to monitor intermediate price action in waiting the next H4 closing, watch carefully H1 and M15 to get early signal of change in the expected bearish scenario. Have a nice weekend, have fun, all the best and take care Hope my analysis bring you some added value in your trading decision and if you like it, many thanks to give me a like and also add me in your following list.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTCUSD - D1/H4 - MID BOLLINGER BAND AS THE LEADING INDICATOR !D1 : Mid Bollinger Band remains "THE" leading indicator. Indeed, after having closed, before yesterday above MBB, the failure, yesterday to confirm it, triggered a new selling pressure and as a result, the previous bullish candle has been neutralized by a bearish engulfing pattern yesterday which close below MBB; Today's ongoing candle is pointing to the SOUTH, currently below both Kijun-Sen and Tenkan-Sen having already reached an intraday low of 46294 early this morning. In order to neutralise this ongoing bearish price action, BTC should at least recover firstly above KS @ 48200 and then much more important above MBB @ 50019 and expecially hold and stay above it. It is not a surprise that MBB coincides roughly with the psychological level of 50'000, former support level which becomes now the new resistance level to break ! In this time frame, once again, today's closing will be very important. H4 : Currently trying to breakdown the support line of the downtrend channel. Clouds worked well so far as support zone in rejecting a first breakout attempt. Globally picture remains heavy and for the time being on this time frame, it looks more a SELL on rally than a BUY on dips. In order to neutralise the downside risk in this time frame, BTC need, firstly to recover above the resistance line of the downtrend channel and secondly above MBB and hold above it As usual watch H1 and M15 to get intermediate clue in shorter time frames. Have a great trading day and please, if you like my analysis, do not forget to like it and add my on your following list. Ironman8848
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
1
BTC -D1/H4 - WATCH MID BOLLINGER BAND AS LEADING INDICATOR !D1 : Strong upside move towards an intraday high of 52652 seen yesterday with a closing level slightly above MBB. Today's price action is currently below the psychological level of 50000. Once again, today's closing will be important for the coming session (s) H4 : Failure to hold above the clouds resistance, triggered a new selling pressure, pushing the BTC down again, towards, so far, the middle of the clouds, which is also MBB on this time frame ! Therefore, MBB (@ 49000) should be seen as the first support ahead of KS (@ 47836) and slightly lower, the clouds bottom zone Global picture in H4 could be resume as follow : UPSIDE PIVOT ZONE : 50000 - 52650 DOWNSIDE PIVOT ZONE : 45300 - 43000 Watch carefully H1 and M15 for intermediate clues
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
1
BTC - H1/M15 - IN A SHORT TERM BEAR TREND....H1 : 61.8% Fibonacci retracement filled @ 49201 (intraday low so far @ 49000) Last candle (bullish engulfing) might trigger a recovery In order to invalidate the ongoing bearish price action, BTC needs to recover above MBB currently @ 50784 and also above the downtrend line resistance. On the downside, clouds zone should be watch as the first support area. M15: Below the clouds and below MBB, looks like a corrective move in a short term bear trend. Watch MBB @ 50374 as the first significant resistance level to break. A failure to hold above 49000 (today's low) would put the focus on clouds support zone (48500-48000) ahead of 47069 (March 2nd low).
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
1
BTCUSD - D1H4 - CLUSTER 49900-50300 D1 & CLOUDS H4D1 : Very strong price action occurred yesterday by one of the longest white candle (BULLISH ENGULFING) seen so far (Opening 45262 / Closing 49629 + 4367 / + 9.64 %), similar to the one seen on Feb 19th (Opening 51560 / Closing 55989 + 4429 / + 8.59 %). Today's price action triggered an intraday high so far @ 50250 which is roughly the level of Tenkan-Sen (conversion line) and which should also, as Mid Bollinger Band, be seen as very important level to break. Therefore this "cluster" (49900-50300) should be watch carefully on D1 basis for ongoing structural development. The key pivot level remains 51530 and a clear breakout of that level would clearly open the door for a retest of the highs above 58000. On the downside a failure to hold above Kijun-Sen @ 47486 would put the focus again on 45000-43000 H4 : After having broken respectively, Tenkan-Sen, Mid Bollinger Band and Kijun-Sen, BTC is now facing a new obstacle to breakout which is : THE CLOUDS ! Indeed, as mentioned yesterday in this dynamic recovery it reached first the 38.2% Fib ret @ 48878 and then nearly filled in the 50 % Fib ret @ 50687 with an intraday high, so far @ 50250. OUTLOOK : UPSIDE, the clouds are clearly the zone to break and which is the case would put the focus on the D1 key pivot level @ 51530 ahead of the 61.8% Fib ret @ 52496 DOWNSIDE, the "cluster" (TS, MBB, KS) respectively @ 47213, 46777 and 46635 should be seen as the first significant area. Have a nice trading day and if you like my analysis do not forget to like it and add Ironman8848 in your following list.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
1
BTCUSD - H4 - BREAKOUT ATTEMPT OF THE DOWNTREND CHANNEL TOP...H4 : Last candle closed slightly up, above the top of the downtrend channel line and also above Mid Bollinger Band (46091). Nevertheless, this breakout, for the time being looks very fragile and we need to wait the next H4 closing for confirmation. Indeed, an upside breakout confirmation would then open the door for 47550 which is the level of Kijun-Sen in H4. On the opposite, a failure to hold above the top of the downtrend channel, would, again put the focus on lower level with Tenkan-Sen as a first support (45298). Global picture remains heavy as we are still under the clouds. Watch H1 for clues
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
4
BTC - D1 - DOWNTREND CHANNEL INTACT !D1 : Global picture is showing a downtrend channel still in place. In addition, for the time being, the ongoing recovery attempt price action failed, so far, to recover above Kijun-Sen (47275) which is the first level to break in order to neutralise the remaining bearish price action. A move above Kijun-Sen would be the first step to confirm a potential further upside move, as above Mid Bollinger Band (49523) which worked perfectly well in the past as a very important support level (leading indicator !), should be seen, now, as a strong resistance to break to change the mode from bearish to bullish. Watch H4 for clues.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
2
BTC/USD - D1 - YESTERDAY'S CLOSING TRIGGERED A DOJI PATTERN !D1 : In a broad bear trend downtrend channel, yesterday's price action triggered a "doji", which close just above the important support level of Kijun-Sen. Today's ongoing price action, broke KS and former low of 44151 in reaching a new intraday low @ 43782 ! Indicators are still pointing to the South. In addition, current price action is showing that BTC is traded below the middle of the donwtrend channel. Next important support to look at is @ 43577 (50% Fib ret) and a breakout of that level would put directly the focus on the 42000 area (former high of Jan 8th) ahead of the psychological level of 40'000 (40089 being the 61.8% Fib ret) Last but not least the 43500-40000 is very fragile (long white bullish candle of Feb 8th, thanks to Elon !) and therefore should be quickly broken... In order to neutralise the current downside risk in this bearish price action, BTC should recover at least above KS, currently @ 46868. Watch and monitor carefully H4, H1, M15 and M5 for intermediate validation or invalidation of this expected bearish scenario
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
6
BTC - H4 - LAST CANDLE TRIGGERED A DOJI !H4 : Recent price action triggered a doji pattern (indecision and uncertainty), with its intra H4 low testing Tenkan-Sen. It is currently traded below the middle of the short term uptrend channel. Continue to watch Tenkan-Sen as a first support and then bottom of the channel; lower focus will be on former low @ 44151 ahead of 43577 (50% Fib ret). On the upside Kijun-Sen (48115) as the first significant resistance ahead of MBB (48319). An upside breakout of the D1/H4 downtrend channel, would neutralise the ongoing bearish price action. Monitor closely price action on H1, M15 and M5
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
4
BTC - H1/M15 - CORRECTIVE MOVE ONLY IN A H4/D1 BEAR TREND !H1 : Current price action is showing a sideways-slightly up channel within a broad bear trend in H4 and D1. Kijun-Sen rejected a breakout attempt and is likely to trigger some rebound again. No change in my view, watch the clouds and the Fibonacci retracement, respectively the 50% @ 48115 (also the top of the clouds !) and the 61.8% @ 49050. A confirmed breakout of those levels would neutralise the current ongoing bearish price action. M15 : Sideways-slightly up channel formation. Watch carefully breakout of the channel either on the upside or on the downside which will show the next price action
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
2
BTC - H4 - STILL BELOW BOTH KIJUN-SEN AND MID BOLLINGER BAND !H4 : Currently in a sideways-slightly up trading channel.. but still below both KS and MBB ! As mentioned in my previous analysis (see D1), recent and current price action should still be seen as CORRECTIVE MOVE ONLY and not as a trend reversal yet ! First significant support remains Tenkan-Sen ahead of the bottom line of the channel. Below focus will be on yesterday's low @ 44151 and 50 % Fib ret @ 43577. Note that the 61.8 % Fib ret is @ 40089 which should be seen a strategic technical target ! As usual watch and monitor carefully price action seen on shorter time frames (H1 to M5)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
2
BTC D1 - KIJUN SEN HOLD !D1 : After having broke in an intraday basis the Kijun-Sen and reached a low of 44151, BTC recovered nicely, to close @ 46315, above KS. Global picture remains heavy. Indeed, despite the rebound seen recently, BTC is still below Mid Bollinger Band which remains a very good "barometer" indicator as you can see in the past. Therefore, I still consider current price action as a CORRECTIVE MOVE ONLY... and not as a trend reversal yet. Only a move above Mid Bollinger Band, currently @ 49644 would force to a view reassessment of the expected bearish scenario with a confirmation on a breakout of KS (51253) and pivot resistance level @ 51530. Watch H4 and shorter time frames to detect intermediates validation or invalidation signals. Have a great weekend. All the best and may your long goes up and your short goes down...
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
1
BTC - H4- RECOVERY ABOVE MID BOLLINGER BAND ?H4 : After three successive failures to breakout the Mid Bollinger Band, current ongoing candle is trying again to upside breakout MBB. Important to note that MBB coincides also roughly with the secondary downtrend line resistance. Therefore, a breakout of that area, on a closing period basis, would be the first positive signal for further upside in opening the door for higher levels towards 51530 (D1 pivot level) ahead of 51599 Kijun-Sen (H4). Nevertheless, the battle will not be finished yet because above KS there is still the clouds resistance zone to break and currently it is very thick !!! On the downside, a failure to close and hold above MBB and downtrend trend line resistance would trigger further selling pressure putting the focus on KS @ 49754, ahead of previous candle low @ 48000 Below nothing until 47000 and 47000-45000 looks very fragile. Watch carefully shorter time frames to get early validation or invalidation signal (s). Have a nice afternoon and have fun :-)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTC - W1 - MIRROR EFFECT IN PROGRESS...W1 : A potential mirror effect triggered by an ongoing Bearish Engulfing pattern (to be confirmed in W1 closing !) is in progress. The 23.6 % Fib ret @ 45491 of the 3850-58354 rally has already been filled. In addition, there is also a RSI bearish divergence in progress which is not been confirmed yet. Next important support level to watch is the Tenkan-Sen @ 42093 which roughly coincides with the former high seen at the beginning of the year ! A failure to stay and hold above that level would be very negative for the BTC and confirm further downside in opening the door for 37533 (38.2% Fib ret) first ahead of Kijun-Sen, currently @ 34089. Watch shorter time frames to get validation or invalidation of this expected bearish scenario ONLY A MOVE BACK ABOVE 53056 (middle of the long white bullish candle) WOULD NEUTRALISE THE ONGOING BEARISH PRICE ACTION !!!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTC - H4 - WARNING MBB UNDER ATTACK !H4 : Recent price action is showing an attempt to breakout the Mid Bollinger Band support (wait for confirmation !) Indeed, from the recent top we can see 2 bearish black candles and the ongoing candles will validate or invalidate the ongoing tactical bearish price action which is for the time being in a 58350-54500 trading range. If MBB hold once again, it is likely to see a recovery, opening the door for a retest of former highs. Warning : a failure to hold above KS @ 54490 would trigger a downside acceleration which may put the focus on the tactical uptrend suppor line, currently around 51500 Technical indicators are not showing any recovery yet ! Watch shorter time frames (H1,M15 and M5) to get intermediate signals Have a nice trading day. And last but not least, if you find my analysis bring you some additional value on your trading decision, do not hesitate to like it and to add me on your following list :-)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTC - AT A GLANCE - TRADING IN THE ZONE - D1 - H4 - H1D1 : As expected, (Tks to Elon !)..., the Monday's breakout of former high @ 42000 triggered a sharp acceleration move towards a high so far of 48200, close to the psychological target mentioned of 50'000. (see my previous Heat Map post). Looking at yesterday's price action, we can see a "school case", perfect "doji" pattern which means indecision and uncertainty ! In addition, coupled with this doji, there is also a bearish divergence on RSI. Therefore, it looks like, further downside is on the cards ! After this sharp move, the 45000-41000 trading range is very fragile and we can not ruled out to see a mirror effect happening in the coming session (s) which would push the BTC down back towards the form congestion zone of January 41000-42000. Screen shorter time frames to get intermediate signal (s) which will help to validate or invalidate this expected bearish scenario. Important to note that on D1, we are still in a strategic uptrend (see the support trend line in green) and therefore the view expressed here should be seen as a tactical trading approach (countertrend !) Only a clear breakout of the uptrend line support would switch from bullish to bearish in a strategic mode approach ! Scenario 1 (Bullish) : Recovery and breakout of the former high of 48200 and then again sharp acceleration towards 51000 and probably higher (Fib projection) Scenario 2 (Bearish) : Failure to hold above 45'000 (yesterday's intraday low) would put the focus on the 43'000 area (see H4 and H1 comments below) H4 : Downtrend in place. Watch 47'000 on closing period observation; a recovery above that level would, for the time being, neutralise the downside risk. On the downside first level to look is 45'600. A H4 closing below that level would be the first signal confirming an ongoing bearish price action targeting the next support previously mentioned on D1 @ 43000 H1 : Downtrend in place Below all leading indicators ! Watch 44900 as the key pivot point, which is also the top of the clouds support zone and which corroborate the view expressed above on D1 As for H4, only a recovery above 47000 would force to a view reassessment of the expected bearish scenario
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Ironman8848
2
US10Y - D1 - DOUBLE TOP IN PROGRESS !D1 : Double top in progress, coupled with a bearish engulfing pattern (which should be confirmed on a closing basis !) In addtion technical indicators are showing bearish divergences... Watch MBB and TS @ 1.0960 as leading indicators for further development. Indeed, a failure to hold above the 1.1000 area would directly put the focus on 1.0460 (KS) ahead of the trigger level of the double top @ 0.9960. (also clouds support area !) A breakout of the latter level would open the door for 0.7960 (double top target) Warning : Stop and reverse @ 1.29 ! Watch also ongoing price action on W1, currently facing a tough clouds resistance to break !
TVC:US10YShort
by Ironman8848
1
BTC - H4 -SHOOTING STAR + DOUBLE TOP IN PROGRESS !H4 : Last candle triggered as shooting star coupled with a potential double top in progress. In addition indicators are also in divergences process Watch : 36477 (TS), 35300 (MBB) and 35280 (KS) 35300 should be seen as a very important support area in this time frame Failure to hold above it would open the door for : S1 :35002 S2 :33885 S3 :32767 H1 : Short term reversal already in progress (doji) followed by a black candle (bearish engulfing) which has been confirmed by a second black bearish candle which hold above TS. Watch : 37538 (TS), 37085 (MBB) and 36973 (KS) Below important congestion zone support between 36045 and 34594 (clouds area and Fib ret Watch very short term time frame M15 and M15 to check price action and detect early invalidated signal (s) of the expected intraday short term potential reversal.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Ironman8848
1
BTC - H4 - STILL ABOVE THE CLOUDS...BUT...H4 : Take a few seconds for looking back what happened since the peak reached 3 weeks ago ! Indeed, you can see that the downtrend (falling wedge in progress) is still intact. 1) Several recoveries attempt (upside breakout failures occured; the most important attempt being the one seen a couple of days ago ; A) A long white bullish candle B) A doji top at the peak ! C) A reversal long black candle pushing down again the BTC inside the falling wedge pattern 2) Then sideways price action with, yesterday, a new upside breakout attempts of the downtrend line resistance which triggered again a Doji and this time, roughly at the level of the donwtrend line resistance ! 3) Current level is around the MBB (@ 33748) and below both TS and KS, respectively @ 33895 and 33885 4) Top of the clouds support zone has been tested this morning ! Conclusion : Scenario bearish : Failure to quickly recover and hold above MBB, KS and TS should trigger further selling pressure targeting a downside breakout of the clouds with the following targets : 1) 32641 2) 31975 3) 31308 Scenario bullish : Recovery success in breaking the downtrend line resistance opening the door for the following targets : 1) former high @ 34800 2) 35060 3) 35740 4) 36419 Due to high volatility I would strongly suggest to carefully screen shorter time frame , H1 and M15, to detect early signals which would allow to act accordingly. Have a nice Sunday :-) Good luck Ironman8848
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTC H4 - FORMER UPTREND LINE SUPPORT & CLOUDS HOLDH4 : As both KS and former support trend line hold, it triggered an ongoing new recovery attempt in progress. It is not a surprise to see that the pivot point is at the same level than the one seen in D1 (see my previous post) Indeed, first Fibo ret is @ 35060 and TS @ 35305 Therefore, in order to maintain the current upside biais, it is crucial to see a breakout confirmation of the 2 levels previously mentioned and more important to stay and hold above it. H1 : Support clouds hold and currently above TS ! On H1 time frame, a move above MBB, currently @ 34600 would be the first step to open the door for higher level ahead of 35060 and 35305. Bearish scenario ; A failure to hold above TS and H1 clouds support zone should trigger another wave of selling pressure, targeting the 32000 (yesterday's intraday low) ahead of the 29000 area, intraday low of Jan 27th For very short term price action, i would suggest to screen carefully H15 and H5 to get early signals for appropriate trading action
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTC - D1 - STILL IN A DOWNTREND...D1 : Despite a strong recovery attempt seen yesterday (thanks to Mr Elon Musk...which "help" and triggered a sharp upside move in a couple of hours (31990 towards 38620 !), BTC did not manage to close and hold above the downtrend line resistance which is still in place and which worked perfectly well in rejecting 5 times breakouts attempts ! In addition, yesterday's price action should be seen as a bearish pattern, BULLS loosing the battle against the BEARS. Moreover, yesterday's closing has been below KS and MBB which continue to remain very good barometers. No change in my bearish expected scenario which is calling for a retest of the psychological 30'000 level first. A failure to stay above 31990 (former low of yesterday) would set the tone for the ongoing trading session. IMPORTANT to note, the critical trading range between 30400-28800. Indeed a failure to stay and hold above that area, would directly put the focus on my first strategic target @ 27426 ahead of lower levels. As already mentioned, in order to neutralise the current downside risk, the first positive signal would be a daily closing level above MBB, downtrend line resistance and last but not least above KS, currently @ 35400 ! Watch shorter time frames H4, H1,M15 to initiate countertrend tactical positions in respecting a disciplined and rigorous Risk & Reward approach in this "current" high volatility market environment ! Have a great weekend Ironman8848
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Ironman8848