Burl Ives trade not looking too good right now (Silver & Gold)As the DXY rises, commodities generally will fall. Even though GOLD sometimes is thought of as more of a defensive asset and inflation hedge, that theory has been moot lately.
SILVER and GOLD (the Burl Ives trade) will continue to languish in these downward channels on the weekly charts as long as the dollar is remaining strong. They are both extremely oversold on the RSI, but with the dollar as a headwind, the oscillators and indicators don't matter as much.
Gold and Silver are essential for electronics; especially those to do with space and healthcare. but would be a no-touch area for me personally until I see the DXY break below 110 with an apparent break in the upward trend.
If high inflation can't get Gold going, then I don't know what can.
If the dollar does drop and the momentum for commodities changes, I would be looking to buy GOLD at 1600, SILVER at 18, then sell GOLD around 2,100, and SILVER around 27.
Kingdollar
XAUUSDWith a 15% volatility move on XAUUSD and a strong demand for the dollar. This is my projected move for XAUUSD.
The idea is based on fundamentals on the dollar and how it could possibly affect Gold price movement then volatility and Fibonacci retracements on the weekly timeframe to forecast price targets.
EUR/USD Weekly Review 1/15/20Please see my old post for context. We have confirmed a structure break and it will be interesting to see if this down move picks up steam or retraces the next week.
What I got WRONG:I anticipated more bids around 1.21 and below.
What I got RIGHT: Bearish sentiment and confirmed down trend
On the news front next week is busy, especially the later half. As I mentioned earlier it appears politics, for better/worst is driving volatility. I'll revisit this idea later this weekend
US Dollar Index At Support LevelFirst let's start by looking at the monthly candle. USD Index lost over 76% of its gains from the low 95.50. Although the month is not over, there's a question to be made whether USD peaked @ 97.00 level. As we look at the weekly timeframe, USD index put in a shooting star for the week prior, also what I considered a dark cloud cover pattern. It's tough to say what this week entail for US Dollar, or even next week. But unless we see a major bull run on these next few days of this week, it is bearish. Sell on every rise! - just my opinion.
Happy Trading, folks!
Cheers!
USD Breaks Above Monthly TrendlineTo start the month of August, our expectation was for the King Dollar to retest the highs before moving lower. That, however, wasn't the case as USD closed above the monthly downtrend line. If you have been following this analysis for a few weeks back, price levels and trend line hasn't changed a bit (except for a couple add-ons - update). Looking even further into price momentum, it seems as if the break of the trend line offers fresh new leg to more bullish price action in days ahead.
Happy Trading, folks!
Cheers!