Kingthies
One Very Relevant Bitcoin Trend to FollowBitcoin Monthly TF Analysis
Historic RSI Trend
January 2, 2021
Eric Thies
Taking a look at the Bitcoin Monthly Chart, shown here as Brave New Coins BLX Index, it becomes incredibly clear why the 1M Trend is one of the primary indicators many should be tracking on a macro level.
With the price sitting at a lovely $30k, we are now reaching new highs that will soon bring new money, investors, and attention to the king of all cryptocurrencies. That said, such attention will also bring negative sentiment, perpetual condemning, and ignorant claims that question the currency as legitimate.
All things considered, this is ultimately just noise aimed at keeping retail traders sidelined while corporations, institutions, and potentially even government entities become fully invested with their share of the pie. As witnessed in 2017, businesses leaders like JPMorgan's Jamie Dimon have zero issue with condemning the crypto universe while the lower ranks of the bank actively purchase and invest into it.
Bitcoin Monthly RSI
As noted on the chart here, we have seen this trend before, and its almost too similar.
In each previous market cycle, the RSI on this Monthly TF has double topped in the 94-97 range, after a parabolic advance following the block halving event.
At cycle as well, monthly RSI crossed our current level of 82 just around the price of its prior ATH.
We are seeing the identical pattern in this current cycle, as of now on BTCUSD
In Summary
Watch the monthly RSI.It is currently 82 and should top out around 92 later this year in 2021
History May Not Always Repeat Itself, But Bitcoin Might.$100,000 BTC should be in the back of your mind if it isn't already. Scoffing at the idea? You aren't alone. But with price sitting at $16.6k at this moment, and a historic tendency to break all-time highs after reaching them, one has to consider the logic on what the next trend high looks like, as we approach the current all-time high of $19.5k.
Sure there will be blood in the water by the time it happens, and many will be in disbelief when it does, but the overall train of thought I have is almost conservative compared to her explosive history of 4,000% or 1,500% returns in a matter of months. That said, as we near ATH, 500% from current ATH is absolutely realistic.
The chart here shows you the time that has passed since the last high in December 2017. You'll notice it is in alignment at this point with the 2015-2017 run, which we currently almost set up identically to in comparison. Price then exploded after the 1200 day period for 1500% percent growth.
While I can't promise history repeats itself, it certainly looks as if bitcoin will.
Bitcoin Consolidation Guide for Dec 2020 Context
In November 2020, Bitcoin rose to a local high of $19.5k USD, challenging the all-time high set in December 2017. The run to $19.5k in 2020 occurred after a March low of $3.5k, and was highlighted by an impressive jump from around $10k-$19.5k in the Sept-Nov months.
Summary
Look for these ranges listed below. Support ranges 2-3 will put this period of consolidation, right where it expected, relative to 2016-2017 runs up to the contested ATH of $19.5k (30% consolidations were norm in that period).
Support Range 1
$17.2k
Support Range 2
$14.5-$14.7k
Support Range 3
$14.0-$14.3k
Support Range 4
$13.2-$13.3k
Stop Loss for Support Ranges
$12.5-$12.7k where we see risk outweigh potential gains
Bulls in Trouble/Trend in Jeopardy
Lower kelt on the 1wk chart. A line where I'd recommend having a stop set incase its reached.
REKT Line - Bears have full control
Self Explanatory, a break below this line will look terrible for bulls and crypto alike. 40-50% drop.
