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Kiwi

NZD - CENTRAL BANK ANALYSISObjective: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand Act 1989 identifies the RBNZ's economic objectiveas achieving and maintaining stability in the general level of prices over the medium term. In April 2019, the Act was amended to also include supporting maximum sustainable employment. In 1990, the RBNZ became the first central bank to formally adopt inflation targeting which as of 2012 is 1-3%. As of Q4, inflation in New Zealand stands at 1.4%, unchanged from Q3. The Unemployment Rate for Q4 stands at 4.9%, compared to 5.3% for Q3. Situation: At their February meeting, the RBNZ left its Official Cash Rate unchanged at 0.25%, and its large scale asset purchase (LSAP) programme at NZ$100 billion until June 2022. The central bank kept future rate cuts on the table, noting that the outlook is uncertain with several factors currently supporting economic activity likely to be temporary. However, the RBNZ also upgraded its forecasts for inflation and trade weighted index for NZD and concluded that resilience in the domestic economy implies no significant additional stimulus is currently required.
by thunderpips
2
NZD - WEAK BULLISHThe primary drivers for NZD are its high-beta status and the RBNZ's monetary policy outlook. As a high-beta currency, NZD has remained broadly well supported in times of risk-on and as the overall risk outlook and tolerance of the market has improved over recent months. With coronavirus vaccines programs now underway in many countries, we expect the months ahead to see a further gradual improvement in the overall risk outlook and global economic outlook. However, regarding NZD's monetary policy outlook, optimism has diminished in recent sessions as new legislation by New Zealand's government to cool its housing market is expected to provide the RBNZ with more time before being forced to normalize policy. Consequently, market expectations for the timing of future rate hikes have been pushed back.
by thunderpips
2
NZD: Current sentiment driversLatest developments: March 17 – GDP for Q4 printed at -1.0% Q/Q and -0.9% Y/Y. Commenting on the contraction in economic activity, Capital Economics stated “The modest solid decline in activity in Q4 reflects the fading of pent up demand and means that in New Zealand a second recession is imminent as GDP is bound to decline in Q1.” February 24 – The RBNZ left its OCR unchanged at a record low of 0.25% and asset purchases at NZ$100 billion as expected. The central bank kept future rate cuts on the table but added that the domestic economy’s resilience implies no significant additional stimulus is currently required. November 3 – For Q4, the Unemployment Rate in New Zealand printed below consensus at 4.9% from 5.3% in Q3. Additionally, Employment Change printed at 0.6% versus market consensus of 0.0%. January 21 – Inflation for Q4 saw CPI Y/Y remain unchanged at 1.4% while CPI Q/Q printed at 0.5% from a prior of 0.7% Future sentiment shifts: Due to its high beta status, NZD’s performance over recent months has been strongly correlated with the market’s overall risk tone, with the currency weakening substantially as markets sold off and strengthening as the risk tone recovered and turned positive. Recent global data has been encouraging, continuing to support NZD and the overall risk tone; although, the ongoing spread of the virus throughout the world and second waves in many countries still pose significant risks. For a fundamental improvement in NZD’s outlook and bias, there will need to be an easing of concerns surrounding the spread of the coronavirus (which appears likely given the vaccine rollout). However, even then, NZD upside could become an uphill battle with many analysts arguing the currency is approaching overvalued levels. Primary drivers: Reserve Bank of New Zealand – New Zealand’s monetary policy outlook plays a key role in NZD’s fundamental outlook. A hawkish stance from the RBNZ and expectations for policy tightening will support NZD; while a dovish stance and expectations for policy easing will pressure NZD. Risk Tone – Due to its high beta status, NZD is strongly correlated with the overall risk tone; strengthening in risk on environments and weakening in risk off environments. Commodity Markets – NZD is indirectly correlated with commodity markets due to New Zealand’s dependence on China and Australia for trade. As both Australia’s and China’s economies influence and are influenced by the commodities complex, NZD tends to move in accordance with the commodities markets, but also with AUD.
by thunderpips
NZD - WEAK BULLISHThe primary drivers for NZD are its high-beta status and the RBNZ's monetary policy outlook. As a high-beta currency, NZD has remained broadly well supported in times of risk-on and as the overall risk outlook and tolerance of the market has improved over recent months. With coronavirus vaccines programs now underway in many countries, we expect the months ahead to see a further gradual improvement in the overall risk outlook and global economic outlook. However, regarding NZD's monetary policy outlook, optimism has diminished in recent sessions as new legislation by New Zealand's government to cool its housing market is expected to provide the RBNZ with more time before being forced to normalize policy. Consequently, market expectations for the timing of future rate hikes have been pushed back.
by thunderpips
5
$NZDUSD - Another impulse above 0.72550Hi guys! 👋🏻 🔔 New Zealand Central Bank’s rate cuts and other measures and tools have reacted positively on NZD during the pandemic as since April 2020, Kiwi against the US Dollar was able to rise by 13.74%. 🔔 The situation around the US Dollar remains mixed, the recent report on a 25% drop of new Covid-19 cases looks positive, although the pause on the stimulus bill resulted in a -0.42% drop of the US Dollar index 🔔 The negative impact on the USD may be also caused by tensions rising on the South China Sea, the US Carrier was reported to sail near the Chinese-controlled area in the disputed waters. 🔔 NZD/USD looks bullish, as the pair broke out from the triangle and is still above the long-term dynamic resistance. 🔔 The best would be to wait for a breakout from the $0.72550 resistance and go long. 🔔 The pair has tested the $0.72130 resistance as support though is below another resistance at $0.72400 🔔 I specially am curious to watch the Moving averages 100 and 200 going as one since February 8 and it looks like a great support. ✊🏻 Good luck with your trades! ✊🏻 If you like the idea hit the 👍🏻 button, follow me for more ideas.
Long
by azizelliott
Whats next for Euro Kiwi? Hi Team, As discussed on last night's FX market scan it looks like many pairs have completed their trends and are now in correction mode on the daily. This gives us an opportunity for some counter-trend trade on the smaller timeframes. I'm liking EURNZD long here for a "C" wave up. Cheers Dale DISCLAIMER: Just ideas, no crystal ball, NO ADVICE. The information presented here is general in nature and is for education purposes only. Nothing should be considered to be advice. You should consult with an appropriate professional for specific advice tailored to your situation.
Long
by OrganicFX
FEB 26TH - MARCH 5TH TRADE PLAN FOR #NZDCHF? GOOD DAY SUNDAY TRADERS! From the desk of The Trading Regime, we have discovered an opportunity for NZDCHF. Here are some simple reasons for taking a trade to the downside on this pair: Weekly Bearish price action candlestick with closure to the bear side Break in Daily Structure Daily Bearish Engulfing candle Potential correction in CHF currency this week. OANDA:NZDCHF As always, risk no more than 1-3% per trade, and don't risk more than you're afraid to lose. The Trading Regime.
Short
by EvaultFinancialGroup
NZDCHF downAs per the last post on NZDJPY - I think the move down on NZDCHF is coming a little sooner. Both suggest a shift in the NZD as the driving factor for the bigger move. looking at the monthly we are closer to the regression top. The weekly is already above Regression. And all major timeframes (Monthly, Weekly & Daily) are Stochastic overbought positions. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Short
by Mayfair_Ventures
NZDJPY Long situation monthly prior to major reversallooking at the monthly structure, we can see a strong A, B, C pattern playing out - moving to the top of the regression. This is supported by the Stochastic being overbought. From a COT perspective, the numbers show a rise in NZD buying throughout Jan for the leveraged funds and the inverse for the asset managers. Shorts have been steady with a sharp rise on the week of the 2nd of Feb. JPY data shows; mainly rising short positions from the start of the year for both asset managers & leveraged funds. Asset managers picked up more JPY longs as of the 9th of Feb and the leveraged funds have been slowly accumulating longs since the middle of Jan. So expectation would be a rise to regression and a drop to create a bigger move down overall. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Long
by Mayfair_Ventures
2