Up Comming week COT analysis COT Data
CHF- Commercials have relieved their long positions giving rise to more producers (shorts) to move around. We had some commercials close their positions, but there were no more entered afterward. The shorts are still providing fuel to the Non-Commercials to drive prices higher and the Non-Commercials are happily taking the supply. There were 1280 new orders opened for the CHF with 747 of them coming from the Commercials adding to their short hedges. In regards to the net positions this is what I was looking for last week. On the COT index the major players just switched sides and I was wanting to see both sides add to their bias to kinda confirm what we see. in regards to net positions the commercials are Current (7754) coming from (6,846) this increase will provide more supply on the market driving price up as the producers are in charge at the moment. The non-Commercials are at 8989 coming from 8739 its only a mere 250 order change so it might seem like buying is drying up, and it very well could be but on the line items the shorts took off 132 orders (not adding Open interest) while the Longs added 118 orders (which will add to the Open Interest). So in a nut shell we see the CHF producers from the Commercials still producing so the Non-Commercials might be a bit slow to buy leaving it up to the non-reportables to save the day LOL.
GBP- On the Pound the Commercial Consumers are still in control forcing the Pound to become cheaper. This is not some commercials delivering product and closing contracts there were 1488 added to the open interest. The Commercial Consumers added 12377 new order their long bias while the producers only added a 1/4 of that. Surprisingly 12,000 orders came off the table on the Non-Commercial side going from 39,000 orders to 26,000 orders while the shorts are still driving down price with 63,000 orders coming from 61,500 orders. When you look at the net side of things the Commercial Consumers are still buying up supply while the Non-Commercials are still driving price down. It takes along time for the big curriencies to turn around but I would expect to see some of the GBP major Pairs start to consolidate or turn around.
CAD- The United States’ Unofficial but Official supplier of oil. When you look at the Export of oil from Canada on the invoice it says US. The CAD Dollar is in a very interesting place right now the Commercial are about to be battling it out of control and this is probably why the Non-Commercials have both closed positions without re-entering the market. The Commercial Consumers added 1100 positions to their already existing 77,000 orders while the Commercial Producers have added a whopping 4961 orders to their side driving up thier 41,000 to 46,000 while the Non-Commercial shorts took off 2800 orders and the longs took off 2000 orders. The Non-Commercial Shorts are still driving price down but the COT index is nearing the Zero line so we might be seeing a trend change which is something we can see with oil. The Black Gold has been slowly gaining value but it has struggled in the past few weeks.
JPY- Japan is the world leader in exporting electronics supplying the whole world with just stuff. and knowing that the conductors in the electronics use platinum or palladium I suspect as the precious metals begin to rise again so will their economy , not including the uses of the metals in emissions pieces in vehicles which Is japans #1 export. What we have is the Commercials delivering on their contracts and not opening up any more so we might be seeing a trend change to support my “theory” (which is a very cavalier way of using the term) but we see the non-commercials still buying up the supply still available driving their orders from 57,000 to 62,000. We also see the Non-Commercial shorts want to play as well coming in from 23,000 to 29,000. This is probably stalling the yen a bit but I do think we are gonna see the yen get stronger here in the next few weeks if not months. But the Commercial Shorts are still by far in control with 100,000 orders short. Driving the yen up. I suspect the yen is not as strong as it should be is because the non-commercials are a bit hesitant to buy.
Eur- the Euro is strong as he**. Selling the Euro is probably not the wisest moves as a trader unless you’re a hedger. The Open interest increased by 26,000 orders and the Shorts are 429,000 orders short driving the Euro up through the roof. Some of the Non-Commercials booked profit on the long side and Some of the Non-Commercial shorts booked some losses. The Euro is a strong buy at this point in time. The Supply is out there. There is a nice Eur/Nzd Trade I have been waiting on to get in and this Report gives me a better feeling about it.
NZD- if you did not know the Kiwis are some cowboys with the majority of thier economy coming from cows, pigs, and other food products. This is probably why their nickname is “Kiwi” anyways the Kiwi is getting stronger and I might have to wait on my Eur/Nzd trade until the Kiwi weakens the longs closed out 1400 positions while the shorts added 1400. Same story on the non-commercials 2100 orders were put into the Kiwi Longs driving the currency higher. But I do have a hard time thinking the Kiwi is really out muscling the Euro but the candles don’t lie. But good news is Both sides are drawing nearer to the Zero Line… so the trade could be happening sooner than later.
This is all for the COT Analysis for this coming week. I’m keeping some out for myself but here are the Major pairs and their reports as I see them Good Luck!
