NZDUSD: Cont'd from Previous PostWhile NZDUSD retraced expectedly before rising further, the current movement suggested further retracement before the rebound.
What's confirmed now is that NZDUSD has broken away from a previous bearish structure and recently also broke out of a consolidating structure towards the upside.
The price is expected to retrace 0.6615 where it broke out from a bearish structure.
Look for buying opportunity from 0.6615 to 0.6605, targeting 0.6690 and 0.6720.
Kiwi
ridethepig | NZD Market Commentary 2020.01.16Mixed data from NZ overnight with strong housing and weak retail sales. The soft sales was mostly expected so only minor spikes were available in NZD on the event risk flow as posted in the diagram here:
As widely expected, NZDUSD presenting another very good opportunity to short 0.664/6x and initially target by covering 0.660x. In AUDUSD same drill as before, tracking 0.692x for a similar move back towards 0.685x lows in the range.
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The kiwi managed to perk up as the deal disappointed the markets𝔹𝕖𝕗𝕠𝕣𝕖 𝕪𝕠𝕦 𝕣𝕖𝕒𝕕 𝕥𝕙𝕚𝕤 𝕚𝕕𝕖𝕒, 𝕡𝕝𝕖𝕒𝕤𝕖, 𝕔𝕝𝕚𝕔𝕜 𝕥𝕙𝕖 𝐋𝐈𝐊𝐄 𝐛𝐮𝐭𝐭𝐨𝐧 𝕥𝕠 𝕤𝕦𝕡𝕡𝕠𝕣𝕥 𝕞𝕪 𝕨𝕠𝕣𝕜.
𝕀 𝕨𝕠𝕦𝕝𝕕 𝕒𝕡𝕡𝕣𝕖𝕔𝕚𝕒𝕥𝕖 𝕚𝕥.
Serving as a solid support line, the 200-day moving average has been used by the NZDCAD pair to rebound up after previously struggling and slipping down. After the signing of the phase one trade deal, the kiwi managed to perk up as the deal disappointed the markets. The agreement left the tariffs on $120 billion worth of Chinese goods untouched until the US and China reach a phase two deal. Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar is also moving in lockstep with the developments in the US-China trade deal. At first, markets were optimistic that the interim deal would be bullish for global trade outlook. However, with the tariffs staying in place until after phase two, markets were disappointed and concerned. Reports have it that the discussion of phase two won’t kick off until after the US presidential elections. Canada is a major trading partner for the US.
NZDUSD: Breakout of Consolidating StructureNZDUSD has been on the rise since it found support and rebounded off from a 4 year low around 0.6200.
In the process of the rebound, the price has broken a few critical resistance levels such as the 8-month falling trendline.
There's little doubt that NZDUSD is in a bullish structure while the dollar is also weakening.
Just recently, the price has broken out of a downward consolidating structure and a new bullish trend has just begun.
Wait for the pullback towards 0.6630 to look for a buying opportunity.
NZDUSD | Supply and Demand zones | 1H Short Setup
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NZDJPY Buy / LongHi traders,
NZDJPY is on an uptrend, creating higher highs and higher lows, the price on strong support area and the chance to go up and continue its trend is very likely; here is the setup:
NZDJPY Buy at 72.565
Stop Loss at 71.689
Target Profit at 74.462
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Symmetrical Triangle on AUD/NZD @ D1The symmetrical triangle is on the daily chart of AUD/NZD. It offers a downside breakout trading opportunity. The triangle's borders are drawn using the yellow lines. My potential entry level is placed at the cyan line. My potential take-profit level is placed at the green line. I will use the high of the triangle's base as my stop-loss level (1.04867).
NZDUSD | Supply and Demand zones | 1H short setup
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Trading Rules:
Avoid the Obvious:
Profits rarely come from following the majority or the crowd. When you see a perfect trade setup, it’s likely that everyone else sees it as well, planting you in the crowd, and setting you up for failure
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NZDJPY - Buying DipsBuy at 72.65
The medium term bias remains bullish
The continuation higher in prices through resistance has been impressive with strong momentum and shows no signs of slowing
Bespoke support is located at 72.65
Further upside is expected although we prefer to buy into dips close to the 72.65 level
Expect trading to remain mixed and volatile
Stop: 72.30
Target 1: 73.85
Target 2: 74.50
ORBEX: Fed Injects Money in Repo Markets BUT Is That Really QE?Market participants seem to have taken Fed’s liquidity injections as QE, dragging dollar down.
Despite increasing the balance sheet, the Fed’s move should be really reassuring investors that funding pressures, at least in the short-term, are and will be lower.
Or, should it not?
Well, the demand for funding was slower than expected near year’s end. But is this perhaps because institutions are trying to shrink their balance sheets to hit yearly targets...?
Timestamps
USDCHF 2H 02:00
AUDUSD 2H 04:50
NZDUSD 2H 05:55
Trade safe
Stavros Tousios
Head of Investment Research
Orbex
This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
0.6710 will be decisive in NZDUSDThe rise in NZDUSD reached the upper band. The strong ascending trend led the recovery to continue, yet couldn't become permanent above 0.6730 area. 0.6710 and 0.6690 levels will be on our radar as supports for the continuity of the possible retreats. On the other hand, 0.6730 and 0.6780 will continue to be important resistance levels for us.
ORBEX: Risk Up on LOWER TARIFFS As China Announces Import Cuts!China announced they will be lowering tariffs on a number of items come January 1st, making markets looking more festive ahead of Christmas!
Aussie and Kiwi took the headlines with a positive tone, however, Cable kept entering lower territories on the back on post-election no-deal fears! Will the Santa rally continue?
Have a look at our Elliott Wave analysis for further clues!
Timestamp
AUDUSD 2H 01:15
NZDUSD 2H 04:10
GBPUSD 2H 06:20
NZD/USD was Underpinned After Better GDP DataNew Zealand Dollar is among the strongest majors following better than expected GDP growth. New Zealand GDP grew 0.7% qoq in Q3, above expectation of 0.5% qoq. Q2’s growth rate was revised sharply lower from 0.5% qoq to 0.1% qoq.
Technically, the next direction of the NZD/USD next sessions is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 0.6567.A sustained move there will indicate the presence of buyers. Also on a daily chart we have confirmed bullish cross on 50-day SMA above 100-day SMA. So, we prefer the bullish scenario until the pair keep trading above 200-day SMA at 0.6531. The first upside target is 0.6666. In that area we have the upper boundary of the daily Bollinger Bands, the resistance line of the bullish price channel and 78,6% Fibo level.
On downside, a clear break bellow 0.6567 will indicate that sellers have re-emerged. They are going to try to form a secondary lower top. If this move creates enough downside momentum then look for a break to the 11th Dec. low at 0.6522. Taking out this level will change the main trend to downward with 0.6497 the next major bearish target (50% Fibo).
Take in mind, that additionally, details of the US-China trade relations and US President Donald Trump’s impeachment voting will also entertain investors.
We're expecting to share with us your opinion in the comments bellow.
NZDCAD Uptrend Exhausting?NZDCAD was a trade we took to the upside and hit our upside target.
From here, we talked about watching for a potential trend reversal, and we are very likely getting this now.
The uptrend with higher lows and higher highs is now exhausting. 0.8635 is the higher low we are working with and are awaiting the break and close below.
You can see we expect a lower bounce pattern here or some sort of head and shoulders pattern. This will confirm our first lower high with the lower low that would be made with the break and close.
Another confluence of course is where price reversed, was a big flip zone.
Watching for the break and close and we will then enter, with our target being 0.8560.
Kiwi short off median lineLong-term pitchfork has been in place dictating price movements since 2016, and the current rally could potentially have found resistance at the median line.
Other potential resistance levels alongside this:
Trend line off March-July highs
25% slope in new untested pitchfork
More Kiwi Strength? - NZD/USD Ichimoku Long TradeThis pair has been on a larger bullish run over the past few weeks and I am looking for that to continue.
We are down near kijun sen here and I am looking for a push back up and beyond price structure highs we saw last week.
I am looking for a good support candle to form to buy on for a chance to go ahead and get long to our targets I've drawn out.
If we fail to hold support or if our bullish confirmations change, this setup may become invalidated.
Can NZD Keeps its Gains Against USD? The New Zealand Dollar could be weakening on profit-taking and we can see a pullback into a support area at 0.6567, which is 61.8% Fibo retracement on the fall from 0.6790 to 0.6203.
But the pullback from 4.5-month high could be temporary, cause on the daily chart we may have a bullish crossover of the 50- and 100-day SMAs. Once its confirmed, this should attracted the buyers.
Additionally, NZD/USD printed a daily bullish engulfing candle yesterday, signaling the bullish momentum is not exausted yet. If the buyers pick up, the nearest bullish target is 0.6666 (78,6 Fibo level). In event we have a clear break there, this could extend the upside trend towards July 24 high at 0.6723.
And of course don't forget to keep a close eye on fresh developments surrounding the US-China trade talks. In case sides fail to reach a deal and the US ends up hiking tariffs on Chinese imports on Sunday, the trade-sensitive kiwi could start erasing this week's gains. Bellow 61.8% Fibo the next support is around 0.65 - 0.6475.
More Kiwi Strength? - Ichimoku NZD/USD Long Trade SetupThe kiwi has been on a rise for the past week and now I am looking for a drawback and support to hold for a chance to get long back into that trend.
We're close to entry here at market open which actually may give us a quick entry into this with the gap that formed.
I've drawn out price structure targets on our way to overall price structure resistance that I'm aiming for. If we fail to hold support or if our bullish confirmations change then this setup may become invalidated.