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Kiwi

NZDUSD - Kiwi oversold, ready for reboundGlobal growth outlook concerns continue to be the topic of discussion at the RBNZ as to the level of impact on NZ exports despite positive underlying fundamentals. Our view - Solid underlying fundamentals including, GDP/Inflation ticking higher, exports steadily increasing over the financial year and trade balance surplus - Households remain optimistic as housing market activity picks up - Business confidence is recovering as the government signals commitments on infrastructure investment - Hedge funds remain reasonably flat in the futures market indicating funds are yet to pour into the upside trade - Macro swing targets of 0.74xx into VPOC and 0.80xx with reversal occurring on buyside liquidity into 0.62xx - Technical indicators suggesting oversold momentum conditions We begin loading buyside exposure into the 0.62xx zone across both our macro and directional portfolios ------------------------- We look forward to continuing to provide market leading analysis to traders & investors alike across the TradingView platform. Like, subscribe and leave your comments below! Until next time, Portier Capital Macro Strategy & Portfolio Management
Long
by Portier
3
EURNZD Possible Trade OpportunityRisk appetite has recovered in recent trading sessions as China seems to be stepping up its game when it comes to keeping the coronavirus outbreak and its impact on the economy contained. This was enough to bring EUR/NZD down to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level on its recent rally, and it appears that buyers are trying to defend this area. Price is currently trading below the weekly pivot point level and a deeper pullback could last until the 50-61.8% Fibs that span an area of interest. A bounce off the 50-61.8% area could take EUR/NZD back to the swing high around 1.71770 (around weekly pivot point R1). With ECB head Lagarde due to give a speech in an hour, I’m hoping to see some volatility for this pair. If the speech favor euro we can actually see a bounce but if it doesn't help the positive sentiment for euro we may see the price dip further without any pullbacks from those key levels of fib.
Long
by Anatta0
EUR/NZD likely to continue up next weeks!EUR/NZD saw a huge spike last week reaching back inside the upward channel. The latest risk-off sentiment hurt NZD and other risk-on currencies driving them lower against its rivals. So far that is the main fundamental driver so far since NZD recovered a lot after RBNZ's last surprise cut and economic recovery setting them on a more neutral stance for a while. Short to mid-term going long on this pair makes sense, or as long as sentiment prevails on the risk-off side. By secular analysis, kiwi is somewhere in the middle ground between the most undercrowded and overcrowded currencies, giving me a clue that some extra upside might be limited for an extended period. Entries are still to be made since market makers can make a significant gap in case of new emergency news! As it is instructed in the chart pullback can be considered as a better entry in anticipation of the next resistance breakout! But I would wait for new high, therefore new safe entry!
Long
by fxmonarchy
Bearish Kiwi? - NZD/USD Ichimoku Short TradeThe kiwi has started to flatten out a bit here but I am still looking for the overall bearish trend to end up resuming after the pause we've seen. I've drawn a sell entry a little below our current price with a stop loss right above the rejection wicks we saw which also lines up a flat kumo area where we ended up twisting back to bearish. I've drawn out a few partial take profit levels to aim for on my way to my target. I do want to mention that if this trend resumes we could end up falling much further but I think this mid-term target is a good level to aim for while we watch this pair progress. If we fail to maintain a bearish trend or if our bearish confirmations change, this setup may become invalidated.
Short
by The808Trader
Nube#27AUDNZD sell@1.03826 SL@1.03962 TP@1.0321 Looking forward to some bearish movement on Aussie-Kiwi for the rest of the month. Q3-2019 has established a pretty significant downtrend on this pair, which does not show signs of weakening. Taking advantage of the ~1% bullish impulse of the last weeks, we have some space to look forward to cover by selling, until retest of the lows, hoping that the overall bearish trend resumes. If the trade is activated, it should start to be managed from the 0.618 blue level, maybe protecting the trade from losses. 0.786 purple line could be a nice place to look for partial or total close.
by timeerr
ridethepig | NZD Market Commentary 2020.01.17The fruits of my forecasts stretching over the short-term range, will accompany you down this thorny path of range trading, but we cannot avoid consolidation, because only painful chop can help resolve ranges. The dynamic constraints of the flows are clearly defined jurisdictions on both sides (see diagram): The tendency towards advancing further is making the retrace possible. At least for the near-term - full compensation for the flows will only be effective from the attack on 0.666/45 and what is more urgent than an attack on resistance?! An examination of buyers becoming overstretched at the highs thus gives a plus to Sellers. On the other hand, importantly, we know - our macro map for NZD is approaching the mid-game. How should we evaluate that? Is the difficulty only due to the fact that patience is hard to protect? or do other macro factors threaten us? Best of luck those adding to short-term offers inside a long-term macro flow...a mouthful. This is very advanced trading and would recommend using the flows to centralise and manoeuvre around towards the flank. As usual thanks for keeping your support coming with likes and comments rolling, so far a superb forecast of event-risk flows so far and traded live here in both AUD and NZD.
Short
by ridethepig
NZDUSD: Cont'd from Previous PostWhile NZDUSD retraced expectedly before rising further, the current movement suggested further retracement before the rebound. What's confirmed now is that NZDUSD has broken away from a previous bearish structure and recently also broke out of a consolidating structure towards the upside. The price is expected to retrace 0.6615 where it broke out from a bearish structure. Look for buying opportunity from 0.6615 to 0.6605, targeting 0.6690 and 0.6720.
Long
by AlgoVenture
ridethepig | NZD Market Commentary 2020.01.16Mixed data from NZ overnight with strong housing and weak retail sales. The soft sales was mostly expected so only minor spikes were available in NZD on the event risk flow as posted in the diagram here: As widely expected, NZDUSD presenting another very good opportunity to short 0.664/6x and initially target by covering 0.660x. In AUDUSD same drill as before, tracking 0.692x for a similar move back towards 0.685x lows in the range. Thanks as usual for keeping your support coming with likes, comments, charts, questions and etc!
Short
by ridethepig
11
The kiwi managed to perk up as the deal disappointed the markets𝔹𝕖𝕗𝕠𝕣𝕖 𝕪𝕠𝕦 𝕣𝕖𝕒𝕕 𝕥𝕙𝕚𝕤 𝕚𝕕𝕖𝕒, 𝕡𝕝𝕖𝕒𝕤𝕖, 𝕔𝕝𝕚𝕔𝕜 𝕥𝕙𝕖 𝐋𝐈𝐊𝐄 𝐛𝐮𝐭𝐭𝐨𝐧 𝕥𝕠 𝕤𝕦𝕡𝕡𝕠𝕣𝕥 𝕞𝕪 𝕨𝕠𝕣𝕜. 𝕀 𝕨𝕠𝕦𝕝𝕕 𝕒𝕡𝕡𝕣𝕖𝕔𝕚𝕒𝕥𝕖 𝕚𝕥. Serving as a solid support line, the 200-day moving average has been used by the NZDCAD pair to rebound up after previously struggling and slipping down. After the signing of the phase one trade deal, the kiwi managed to perk up as the deal disappointed the markets. The agreement left the tariffs on $120 billion worth of Chinese goods untouched until the US and China reach a phase two deal. Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar is also moving in lockstep with the developments in the US-China trade deal. At first, markets were optimistic that the interim deal would be bullish for global trade outlook. However, with the tariffs staying in place until after phase two, markets were disappointed and concerned. Reports have it that the discussion of phase two won’t kick off until after the US presidential elections. Canada is a major trading partner for the US.
by Financebroker
NZDUSD: Breakout of Consolidating StructureNZDUSD has been on the rise since it found support and rebounded off from a 4 year low around 0.6200. In the process of the rebound, the price has broken a few critical resistance levels such as the 8-month falling trendline. There's little doubt that NZDUSD is in a bullish structure while the dollar is also weakening. Just recently, the price has broken out of a downward consolidating structure and a new bullish trend has just begun. Wait for the pullback towards 0.6630 to look for a buying opportunity.
Long
by AlgoVenture
NZDUSD | Supply and Demand zones | 1H Short Setup ________________________________________________________________________________________ Trading Rules: Tools Don't Think: Some traders try to make up for insufficient skills with expensive software, prepackaged with all sorts of proprietary buy and sell signals. These tools can interfere with valuable experience when you think the software is smarter than you are. Use tools that fit well with your trading plan, but remember that, ultimately, you are the one calling the shots ________________________________________________________________________________________ Press Like if you like it You are welcome to share comment Hope this is helpful, Thank you for your support, have a great day
Short
by Aidin_Jabarpoor
1
NZDUSD | Supply and Demand zones | 1H short setup ________________________________________________________________________________________ Trading Rules: Avoid the Obvious: Profits rarely come from following the majority or the crowd. When you see a perfect trade setup, it’s likely that everyone else sees it as well, planting you in the crowd, and setting you up for failure ________________________________________________________________________________________ Press Like if you like it You are welcome to share comment Hope this is helpful, Thank you for your support, have a great day
Short
by Aidin_Jabarpoor
ORBEX: Fed Injects Money in Repo Markets BUT Is That Really QE?Market participants seem to have taken Fed’s liquidity injections as QE, dragging dollar down. Despite increasing the balance sheet, the Fed’s move should be really reassuring investors that funding pressures, at least in the short-term, are and will be lower. Or, should it not? Well, the demand for funding was slower than expected near year’s end. But is this perhaps because institutions are trying to shrink their balance sheets to hit yearly targets...? Timestamps USDCHF 2H 02:00 AUDUSD 2H 04:50 NZDUSD 2H 05:55 Trade safe Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
by Orbex
ORBEX: Risk Up on LOWER TARIFFS As China Announces Import Cuts!China announced they will be lowering tariffs on a number of items come January 1st, making markets looking more festive ahead of Christmas! Aussie and Kiwi took the headlines with a positive tone, however, Cable kept entering lower territories on the back on post-election no-deal fears! Will the Santa rally continue? Have a look at our Elliott Wave analysis for further clues! Timestamp AUDUSD 2H 01:15 NZDUSD 2H 04:10 GBPUSD 2H 06:20
by Orbex