Kiwi
“Kiwi” shows the dollar how to respond to rate cutsYesterday, several influencing decisions on easing monetary policy from the “echelon” were coming out of the Central Banks. In particular, New Zealand’s central bank cut interest rates a steep 50 basis points. The Reserve Bank of India also cut the rate by 0.35%, as well as the Bank of Thailand by 0.25%.
As a result, The New Zealand Dollar has been depreciating in a descending channel pattern against the US Dollar (3%). That is, the New Zealand dollar shows American how to respond to monetary easing. In this light, it would be useful to recall that the US dollar, by and large, ignored the Fed rate cut last week. That is, it continues to develop the potential for a downward movement. So, its sales continue to be relevant and perspective in terms of earnings.
Moreover, after the devaluation of the renminbi, Trump’s desire to devalue the dollar increased even more. According to Viraj Patel an ING strategist, the United States might conduct direct foreign exchange intervention by selling dollars from the Exchange Rate Stabilization Fund (ESF). And this is not the only option. The Fed may make currency interventions or may be the Ministry of Finance or both bodies at the same time, as it usually happened before.
As for gold, the current mood is clearly on the buyers' side, as well as the general fundamental background (the next round of monetary easing by leading central banks). Also, the Central Bank of China is actively increasing physical gold purchases, creating additional demand for the asset in the market. Nevertheless, in our opinion, gold is too overbought and for now, we will refrain from buying it in the movement direction. Now, if we make purchases, then from extreme daily lows, but in general we begin to prepare for a correction and early gold sales.
Today is not rich in important macroeconomic statistics, so there is every chance of continuing the development of current trends.
As for our recommendations, we will continue to sell the dollar on almost the entire spectrum of the foreign exchange market. Pound purchases are still interesting to us in the long term, as are sales of the Russian ruble and oil.
NZDUSD TO RE-TEST DAILY LOWSNZDUSD is finding support at the key monthly demand zone. With the USD losing strength
we could see the price of this currency pair back at the key daily lows of 0.6600. If the daily
price finishes bullish we can look for short-term long opportunities. We must remain aware
that the New Zealand Dollar is losing strength and any long opportunities should
be taken with reduced risk.
EURNZD - Selling at the 78.6% retracementDAY TRADE - EXPIRES AT 9PM
Trade Idea
A bearish Head and Shoulders has formed.
We have a 78.6% Fibonacci pullback level of 1.7140 from 1.7307 to 1.6526.
Negative overnight flows lead to an expectation of a weaker open this morning.
Further downside is expected although we prefer to set shorts at our bespoke resistance levels at 1.7140, resulting in improved risk/reward.
Stop: 1.7190
Target 1: 1.6955
Target 2: 1.6900
Further Kiwi Weakness? NZD/USD Ichimoku Sell This one is a little smaller move than I typically go for, but the risk to reward is pretty solid if we get the entry I'm looking for. I am looking for a good rejection candle at tenken sen for a short term sell. I've drawn out partial take profit levels on the way to my main target. We'll have to be watching this pretty closely at the open as price may react pretty fast. If we fail to hold at tenken sen, then my focus will switch to looking for a rejection at kijun sen to the same targets. If either of these scenarios fail to play out, this setup may become invalidated.
Pound's no-deal lossesThe UK pound continue to bleed against most currencies, including the NZ dollar. Monday's drop has been one of the steepest in the past several months. The fall is likely to go on until perhaps the new British PM Johnson or his cabinet ministers soften up their approach to a no-deal Brexit scenario. Under the current circumstance though, the pair price is heading down for the lower band of the descending channel, well below the 20 MA. 1.8440 seems to be the target for the rest of the day, and still below we will be following 1.8370, near the lower band.
Kiwi still under pressure despieThe New Zealand dollar remains under technical pressure after it unsuccessfully tried to breach a little more above the 1.0450 level. The weekly gains were then lost as the pair headed down. However the Friday rise was limited. In case the table turns again, 1.04000 will be a crucial line of defense for the kiwi If broken we will follow the earlier-tested 1.0385. Monday's Australian CPI figure might weigh on the price.
NZDUSD POTENTIAL LONG (JUST SEEING THIS) 1D CHARTNZDUSD POTENTIAL LONG
OKAY SO I HAD A NZDUSD POTENTIAL SHORT POST THAT I POSTED ABOUT A WEEK AGO. THAT TRADE WAS NEVER ACTIVATED DUE TO THE FACT PRICE ENDED UP MAKING A IMPULSE MOVE OR POWER MOVE RATHER THAN A PULLBACK. AFTER LOOKING AT THE CHART IT SHOWED ME THAT IT HAD ACTUALLY BROKEN PREVIOUS HIGH IN THE MARKET AFTER A HIGHER LOW WAS FORMED AND CONTINUED TO THE UPSIDE. AFTER SEEING THIS IT HAD INDICATED TO ME THAT THIS COULD BE A GOOD POSSIBLE LONG OPPORTUNITY WITH DECENT RISK/REWARD. KEEP AN EYE OUT ON PRICE ACTION AND WATCH AND SEE HOW BUYERS REACT AT THIS POINT IN TIME OF STRUCTURE. IF WE DO GET A DEEPER PULLBACK THEN LOOK AT THE .66500 AREA, NZDUSD ON THIS UP MOVE HAS HAD DEEPER PULLBACKS. KEEP AN EYE ON THIS PAIR AND LOOK FOR THE RIGHT BUYER MOMENTUM NEEDED THAT MAKES IT CLEAR THEY ARE VERY INTERESTED IN BUYING THIS PAIR. ONCE WE SEE THAT THEN LOOK FOR GOOD RISK/REWARD RATIO FOR POTENTIAL TRADE SETUP. LETS KEEP AN EYE OUT AND SEE HOW THIS GOES FROM HERE !
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EURNZD - Head and Shoulders top, Selling strength.DAY TRADE - EXPIRES AT 9PM
Trade Idea
A bearish Head and Shoulders has formed.
A break of the neckline is required to confirm the formation.
The measured move target is 1.6300.
Negative overnight flows lead to an expectation of a weaker open this morning.
Further downside is expected although we prefer to set shorts at our bespoke resistance levels at 1.6700, resulting in improved risk/reward.
We look to Sell at 1.6700
Stop: 1.6750
Target 1: 1.6515
Target 2: 1.6450
NZDJPY - Approaching 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levelDAY TRADE - EXPIRES AT 9PM
Trade Idea
A bullish reverse Head and Shoulders has formed.
Bespoke support is located at 72.25.
Positive overnight flows lead to an expectation of a firm open this morning.
Dips continue to attract buyers.
Further upside is expected although we prefer to set longs at our bespoke support levels at 72.25, resulting in improved risk/reward.
We look to Buy at 72.25
Stop: 71.95
Trget 1: 73.15
Target 2: 73.55
Loonie makes gains against KiwiUnder pressure from remarks regarding an unconventional policy by the RBNZ, kiwi is being pushed down by the Loonie, as the latter finds support from the tensions surrounding oil trade routes in the Middle East. Pricing has already tested 0.8815 level. If the fall breaks that line, 0.8800 near the 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement will be followed.
Kiwi loses on RBNZ policy signsThe New Zealand dollar is facing losses for a third day in a row now as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand revealed that it was looking at an "unconventional monetary policy strategy." Pricing in the pair reached 0.6595 corresponding to the 50 percent Fibonacci level. If the drop goes on 0.6585 will be watched. Further down, 0.6580 can be targeted. In the case of rebound from the 50 Fibo 0.6615 will be followed.
Make $$$ on NZDUSD Short 7/22/19My Odin's eye seems to see the potential for a scalp trade tonight around 27 pips.
1st take profit zone is around 0.6712
Odds enhancer: The US dollar looks like it can potentially move up to around 97.62
We could also see price jump up to a supply zone around 0.67717. If price retraces to this zone, then it would be a good shorting opportunity.
AXE YOUR WAY THROUGH THE MARKET.
AUDNZD Testing Major SupportTrade Idea: Bullish Reversal
AUDNZD has continued its move lower and lower following a bearish channel trend starting all the way back in May. Now price has reached a critical support level of the trend. This gives rise for a potential bullish reversal if price rejects a break lower.
Trade Details:
Positioning: Long
Time frame: 1H
Length of Trade: 3 Days to 1 week
Entry: Between 1.0390 to 1.0380
Stop: 1.0360
Exit: 1.0480
Ascending Channel+H&S Pattern In Favor Of EURNZD Bears! Have a look at the main weekly TF chart of EURNZD pair. From here its clearly visible that the price is confined in an ascending channel which has been held on numerous occasions. However at the moment the price seems to be too aggressive to the downside and has potentially violated the channel pending today's weekly candle close!
The four horizontal red lines represent solid support and resistance levels taken from the monthly TF. Just below the trendline there lies a psychological 1.65000 support level , which in this case is a must to be broken level in order to confirm a bearish outlook. For this level to be broken i would personally prefer the monthly candle to close below 1.65000 level .
Furthermore, there is an almost complete H & S pattern on the chart , which would be complete when the trendline/channel breaks together with the 1.65000 level. In this case the potential 1.65000 turned resistance would also act as the neckline of the H & S . So to put all this together in favor of the bears there 3 concrete confluence factors to take this pair towards the next support that is present at 1.58000!
Fundamentally the Euro is weak at the moment and is predicted to get weak in the coming months, whereas the NZD shows a mixed outlook. So putting all this together the probability of this pair breaking down is HIGH.
Shall there be any updates regarding the trade entries i will post them in a new post. This just represents my outlook on this current pair