Kiwidollar
Kiwi ready for a reversalBy breaking above 0.697, going Long the Kiwi might be a good idea. Over the last 2 weeks the NZDUSD pair has been oversold and there is a clear RSI divergence, while leaving the oversold territory. This time the Moving Average will probably be broken in a bullish manner, unlike the previous 2 times where it acted as resistance. Having a double bottom around 0.69 and a break from the clear resistance line of 0.695, are key technical factors that make the pair look bullish too.
Short KiwiMight not have the best cypher pattern, but it is very close (it is off by 0.02-0.03 in both extentions, but spot on the retracement).
We are at very crucial point as we are hitting multiple resistance lines around the 0.73 level. USD looks like it is going to continue its bull run and I think one of the best pairs to go Long USD is this one.
Again we have an RSI divergence, volume is going down overall but sell volume is growing. Lots of news are coming out this week and I expect to have a clear view about the direction of the market by the end of the week.
A break below 0.7236 would be a clear sell opportunity, but selling now or near 0.73 has the potential to win a few more pips.
NZD/USD approaching key structure ahead of next week's RBNZNZD/USD has remained bullish after the bullish CPI data that I successfully predicted. Prices moved lower after testing this descending trendline to pull back to key support, and is now continuing its ABCD move higher to possibly retest this structure. There is some uncertainty surrounding the US dollar amid Trump's policies after he signed travel ban for several Muslim countries over the weekend, which weakened the US dollar and resulted in NDZ/USD gaping higher on the open of markets. We can expect choppy price action over the coming days as we have a number of key US data including the all-important NFP on Friday. Next week we have the RBNZ interest rate decision, and although expectations are for RBNZ to hold rates after cutting rates to a record low 1.75%, we can expect encouraging comments from the central bank due to the recent positive Kiwi data, which would see further bullish pressure for the currency.
Kiwi CPI data and RBNZ Gov Wheeler preview/fundamental analysisThis is a daily NZD/USD chart. Later today we have key New Zealand Q4 CPI data and comments from RBNZ Governor Wheeler. Both releases are likely to provide volatility so it would be wise to cover open positions and avoid opening positions around the time of the data and speech (21:45 GMT and 23:00 GMT). Data from New Zealand has been mostly positive since the last rate decision in November where the RBNZ cut rates to a record low 1.50%. Since then, Q3 GDP came in better than expected, and although the prior was revised lower from 0.9% to 0.7%, bullish pressure was observed in NZD. Alongside this the most recent jobs data was beat expectations. We can expect the both the CPI data and RBNZ speech to be encouraging, given the recent positive data as well as Goldman Sachs and Bank of New Zealand stating they see RBNZ hiking rates this year. Wheeler's most recent comments also suggest he sees solid CPI data as he stated the economy is performing relatively well and inflation is to return to preferred range by Q4 (which is 1-3%). With all that said, and the simple fact that New Zealand interest rates are so low, we can expect this data to at least be in line with expectations, possibly even come in better and possibly bullish price action for Kiwi Dollar, but always be wary of manipulation!
NZD/USD TESTING THE BROKEN CHANNEL SUPPORT AS THE NEW RESISTANCEFX:NZDUSD
The rate is currently testing the former broken falling channel support as the new resistance. I am looking for a strong rejection lower to enter new short position on the larger head and shoulders pattern trade idea .
I would like to see a bit deeper retracement higher for the rate to test the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern around 0.6960 or even the former broken rising channel support as the new resistance around 0.7050, however, as mentioned before - a bounce lower from the former channel support could work as an entry for a smaller short position.