KSS Kohl's Corporation Options Ahead of EarningsAnalyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of KSS Kohl's Corporation prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 27.50usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2024-10-18,
for a premium of approximately $3.90.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Kohls
KSS Kohl's Corporation Options Ahead of EarningsLooking at the KSS Kohl's Corporation options chain ahead of earnings, i would buy the $34 strike price Calls with
2022-11-18 expiration date for about
$0.64 premium.
If the options turn out to be profitable Before the earnings release, i would sell at least 50%.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
S&P 500 down more than 20% half-yearStock costs dropped forcefully this previous week as the S&P 500 finished its most obviously terrible first 50% of any year in the greater part a long time.
The S&P 500 dropped 20.6% in the initial a half year of 2022, its most horrendously terrible execution in the initial two quarters starting around 1970. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is additionally down over 14% year-to-date, while the tech-weighty Nasdaq has fallen generally 30%.
On Monday, a few major U.S. banks declared they are raising their profits subsequent to passing the Federal Reserve's yearly pressure test. Bank of America raised its profit by 5%, Morgan Stanley raised its payout by 11%, Wells Fargo helped its profit by 20% and Goldman Sachs climbed its profit by 25%.
Kohl's portions dropped 21% on Friday morning after the organization pulled out from buyout discussions with Franchise Group. Establishment Group had recently proposed a buyout of Kohl's at a cost of $60 per share, yet Franchise had supposedly been thinking about bringing its proposition value down to around $50 per share before talks separated.
The greatest negative impetus at stock costs in 2022 has been tirelessly raised expansion, yet new information from the Bureau of Economic Analysis recommends the Federal Reserve may at long last be gaining a touch of headway in battling taking off costs. On Thursday, the BEA detailed the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) list was up 4.7% year-over-year in May, down marginally from a 4.9% increase in April.
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KSS outlookTrend:
Below 50,100 and 200 EMA
Positive ADX, DI below 20
Trend seems to be weak
Macro impact:
Consumer cyclical stock are not a good buy
Inflation impact on consumer purchase
High interest impacting credit buying
Recommendation:
Wait for price to cross above the resistance @ 47.5 for a reassessment
KSS exclusive negotiations for buyout. Arbitrage opportunity! Kohl's Corp is in exclusive talks with the Franchise Group (FRG) over a possible $8 billion takeover.
Franchise Group to pay $60 a share for Kohl's.
The deal has entered a three-week exclusive discussion window.
From this price level there is a 45.44% arbitrage opportunity if the deal goes through.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it!
Kohl's (NYSE: $KSS) Gapping Up Massively Pre-Market 🤯Kohl's Corporation operates as a retail company in the United States. It offers branded apparel, footwear, accessories, beauty, and home products through its stores and website. The company provides its products primarily under the brand names of Apt. 9, Croft & Barrow, Jumping Beans, SO, and Sonoma Goods for Life, as well as Food Network, LC Lauren Conrad, and Simply Vera Vera Wang. As of January 30, 2021, it operated 1,162 Kohl's stores; a website www.Kohls.com; and 12 FILA outlets. Kohl's Corporation was founded in 1962 and is headquartered in Menomonee Falls, Wisconsin.
Buying Kohl's (KSS) for a move up to $70!We've recently opened a LONG $KSS position using 2.59% of our equity. 💎
Macro framework
The U.S. stock markets have managed to stay on track with their outstanding bull run with less than 2 weeks left until the end of the year. It's true that we've seen some short-term spikes of volatility in the markets mainly driven by the uncertainty around the new COIVD variant (Omicron) and the highest inflation CPI readings since the 80's that we recently got. It seems that the global supply-chain issues are here to stay for longer than market participants expected, which is undoubtedly a worrying fact for the Federal Reserve. The severe supply and demand imbalances that we are seeing in the global economy are a direct product of these supply-chain issues and the weaker labor market. However, non of these market risks was able to substantially bring down the US equity markets. Furthermore, it seems that since Jerome Powell officially "dropped" the word "transitory" from the Fed's rhetoric in their last meeting, the market has already priced in a hawkish stance in their upcoming meeting this week. We believe that the Federal Reserve will continue to be extremely cautious with their tightening actions as they are very well aware of the risks and repercussions that a faster tightening policy could have on the markets.
Thus, we are still expecting to see a strong year-end rally for all risk-assets once the uncertainty around the ongoing Fed meeting goes away.
Why does investing in US mid-caps make sense at this stage?
Year to date, the mid-cap-centric S&P 400 Index has climbed 20.4%.
The large cap focused:
Dow Jones - 16.8%
S&P 500 - 24.3%
Nasdaq Composite - 20.4%
The small cap focused:
Russell 2000 - 12.4%
S&P 600 - 23.1%,
It's obvious that, mid-cap stocks have been among the best performing stocks so far in 2021.
Adding qualitative mid-cap companies to your portfolio could significantly optimize your portfolio position as a result of the meaningful diversification that they can bring. In many instances, mid-cap stocks combine the attractive features of both small and large-cap stocks. Mid-cap companies that have a strong market position in their respective industries, skilled and experienced senior management teams and are enjoying economies of scale can see their stocks moving sharply higher as a result of the companies' ability to enhance their profitability, productivity and market share.
There is quite a lot of uncertainty in the market and as a result improving the diversification of your portfolio through the addition of some of these stocks could be significantly helpful for you. You see, if the economic impacts of the new COVID strains are more severe ahead than what the market currently expects, mid-cap stocks will be less vulnerable to losses than their large-cap counterparts, as a result of their more domestic exposure and operations. On the other hand, if we don't see any further worsening of the crisis, these stocks are expected to perform better than their small caps counterparts due to their well-established management teams, broad distribution networks, brand recognition and ready access to the capital markets.
The company is a great Value pick, which we bought and sold earlier in the year for a profit of more than 30%. The company is part of an industry that we would like to increase our exposure to - "Multiline retail"- as we believe that the industry has already experienced a major correction throughout the last few weeks, which now presents an attractive buying opportunity. The main reason for adding $KSS and $M at this point is that we expect to see these companies capture a large portion of the heavy consumer spending that we anticipate to see in the next 4-8 weeks
The Company
💎Kohl's Corporation $KSS operates family-oriented, department stores that feature quality, national brand apparel, footwear, accessories, soft home products and housewares targeted to middle-income customers. Headquartered in Menomonee Falls, WI, Kohl’s Corp. operates more than 1,100 stores across 49 states.
Despite in general being recognized as place with lower selling prices, Kohl's also offers a plethora of private brands, which are characterized with much higher gross margins. Exclusive brands including Food Network, Jennifer Lopez, Marc Anthony, Rock & Republic and Simply Vera Vera Wang are developed and marketed through agreements with nationally-recognized brands.
Valuation
👉 $KSS has a P/B ratio of 1.51. The P/B ratio is used to compare a stock's market value with its book value, which is defined as total assets minus total liabilities. The lower the reading is, the better the company is valued. The company's current P/B looks attractive when compared to its industry's average P/B of 2.52.
From a Value investing standpoint the P/S ratio is also a metric that we need to look at more closely. This ratio is calculated by simply dividing a stock's price with the company's sales. This is a popular metric because sales are harder to manipulate on an income statement, so they are often considered a better performance indicator. KSS has a P/S ratio of 0.46. This again compares favorably to its industry's average P/S of 0.64.
Last but not least, we should also point out that KSS has a P/CF ratio of 6.19. This metric takes into account a company's operating cash flow and can be used to find stocks that are undervalued based on their current and future cash outlook. $KSS again looks as an attractive Value pick from that standpoint as its P/CF ratio is lower than its industry's average of 9.96.
📈Technical Analysis📈
From a technical standpoint, the stock also looks attractive as it has recently experienced a steep 23% correction and is currently sitting at a strong support level where buyers are expected to come back to the stock. The stock has been a victim of the constant and volatile sector rotation that we've seen in the recent months and we believe that the selling is heavily overdone at these levels. The stock is currently resting right around its 200-day moving average and right above the strong horizontal and psychological support level of $47. The relative strength index (RSI) shows that the positive momentum is coming back into the stock and we expect the see the stock challenging its 52-week highs around $64 in the next 6-8 weeks. Our 4-6 month target range for the stock is $70-80 where we would be interested in exiting our position in the stock.
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Weekly Watchlist! 8/2 - 8/6Here are the stocks we are watching for this week!
NASDAQ:AMZN
Looking for a relief bounce on AMZN here off of trend resistance, watching for a break of $3370
NASDAQ:AMAT
Nice accumulation forming here on AMAT under resistance, looking primed for a test of all time highs soon. On this we are looking for a a break of the $142 level
NYSE:CAT
Nice hammer candle right off the 200sma. Sentiment into this week should be good with the expected passing of the Infrastructure bill. Looking for a move over $209
NYSE:KSS
Picture perfect falling wedge forming here on KSS, expect some more bullish moves as the economy opens up further and heading into the holiday months ahead. Looking for a move over $52
NASDAQ:TSLA
Great break and hold of trend resistance last week. Will look for continuation with a break of the $700 level
$KSS Kohls Breaking Down - Bearish Options Activity$KSS Kohls Breaking Down - Bearish Options Activity
After finding some support just below $19 in late June, we've seen a recent choppy mild uptrend. I'll be watching for a break of the lower channel support line in the next week. With a break we should see price action sub-$19 in the near term, leading up to ER early Aug.
Earnings can obviously go either way - but given recent trends in Retail foot traffic, specifically Retail Dept Stores, with strong COVID second waves in highly populated states...I'm bearish.
Bearish Options Activity Today :
1k $20 strike Jan 2022 puts traded today for $720K
Triple bottom on Macy dating back to 1992 =o !!!! $MWhat is Macys?
Macy's, Inc., an omnichannel retail organization, operates stores, Websites, and mobile applications. The company sells a range of merchandise, including apparel and accessories for men, women, and children; cosmetics; home furnishings; and other consumer goods. As of April 1, 2019, it operated approximately 680 department stores under the Macy's and Bloomingdale's names; and 190 specialty stores
The bull case?
-The company has good profit margins for a retail.
-The company has good debt to capital because they sold a lot of real-estate a few years ago.
- Could get a dead cat bounce (lol)
- I've noticed that Yacktman Hedge fund started acquiring over 20% of macy shares.( this is one of those long term investment companies, kinda like Berkshire and warren buffet style, they look for value)
-Lastly they got a good online store and ladies love to shop! shopaholics gonna be shopaholics. (I mean that's why i invest in the market, so i can make extra money for my lady to buy stuff lol)
The bear case?
-retail sector has been going down hill
-Corona shutdown gonna affect their revenue this year by 25% easily so we'll be looking at breakeven for them this year.
we can bear case all day for sure but that's some of the main ones, so know your risk!
So what's my play?
picking some up around the $5 range, gonna add a trailing stop-loss at $1 below ( trailing stop means at $4 stoploss, if you don't know, just msg me)
KOHLS 1D RANGE TRADESRanges are repeatable trading chart patterns.
Ranges are consolidation chart patterns that can breakout either direction.
Each chart pattern will have defining trendlines of the support/resistance levels creating the pattern.
What ever time frame you are trading this chart pattern, wait for a candle close outside of the trendline in the direction of the breakout candle. (Our time frame preference is the Daily chart).
Add volume indicator - Volume is the amount of $ that went into a particular candle or in Forex the # of trades that took place.
Add ATR indicator - Volatility is the amount of price movement that occurred. Use the ATR to measure the price movement.
When you see descending Volume bars and descending ATR line (which indicates volatility) this shows
a dis-interest in traders to invest in this pair creating consolidation which creates the chart pattern.
Trade Management after there is a breakout candle close.
1 - Position size (compare volume bar to volume ma line).
a - Breakout candle must be 100% of average volume for a full position size.
b - If 75% of average volume then ½ position size. (To find 75% of Volume
look at the charts volume settings – divide smaller # into larger # = 75%+)
2 - Enter two trades.
3 - SL for both trades will be 1.5 x ATR.
4 - 1st trade TP will be 1 x ATR.
5 - No TP on 2nd trade – letting profit run and adjusting SL to follow price.
6 - When 1st TP hit – move 2nd trade SL to breakeven.
7 - Adjust the 2nd trade SL to follow price.
*8 – After Breakout candle – if price closes back into chart pattern close trade
*9 - When breakout candle is more than 1 ATR from breakout candle open.
a - Enter 1st trade at candle close with ½ position size.
b - Enter 2nd trade with a pending limit order that is 1 ATR of breakout candle open.
c – Price should pullback to that pending limit order for 2nd trade.
d – If Price returns back into chart pattern close trade before SL is hit.
KSS - Neutral Iron CondorThe stock price broke out from a range, made what looks like a head-n-shoulders pattern, and can mirror the channel pattern it made before the head-n-shoulders. Volatility is high and this is a neutral directional bet on the price action.
47.5/50/77.5/80 JAN19 IRON CONDOR @ 0.45 CREDIT
General plan:
Roll if necessary & if possible to reduce risk.
Target maximum profit, unless significant profit appears early.
Comment or direct message for discussion, or on other interesting ideas!
Follow for updates.
WSJ Endorsement/JP Morgan Positive Reiteration Analysts used to gauge iPhone sales by the length of the line at Apple stores. General opinion and uninformed individuals are doing the same for RL, regarding in-store sales. Supply chain efficiencies improved significantly, YOY, revenue from online sales overseas is most robust it has ever been, and domestic transactions in America are strong online. If iPhone sales in Apple stores were still gauged this way, Apple would be one-quarter of the value it is today. Shorts about to get burned. Also, if you want to trust "top" opinions on trading view, regarding the massive short on RL by Allen Masters, be my guest. Promoting his business based in Pakistan is none of my business. He made his prediction of his short, based on the momentum of RL post-earnings. Anyone trading for 1 hour, would understand that short position, on 24-48 hour time frame. Good luck with shorting RL, and quite frankly, if you want to raise funds for your margin call when you're done, please refer to the link below:
gofundme.com NYSE:RL AMEX:XRT NASDAQ:ETSY NYSE:WMT BMV:KSS NYSE:KORS NYSE:TPR NASDAQ:MTSL
www.wsj.com
www.wsj.com
www.marketwatch.com
Upcoming Roller Coaster For Kohl's (KSS)Putting Elliott Wave Theory To Work. I have made the first of six trades today with three planned positions over the next 3 months. After breaking down the KSS chart at a technical level, I have forecasted 3 rough price points (68.42, 61.22, 75.62).
PLAN #1
Entered first position at 63.37 on January 12
Plan to exit around 68.42 around January 18
This would be around an 8% gain
PLAN #2
Plan to short after the exit around 68.42 on January 18
Plan to exit around 61.22 on February 23
This would be around a 10.5% drop for stock
PLAN #3
Plan to enter long position around 61.22 around February 23
Plan to exit around 75.62 around April 18
This would be around a 23.5% gain
KSS: Good level to add to longs, or get in if flatI think we have good odds here. Risking a drop to 34.57 is conservative, you could also wager on price not going under 39.50 but I'd rather have more margin of error initially. I'm long from higher and doubled my position here since I think it's a low risk spot for the post earnings momentum to end.
Within the next 3-5 days we should see price move higher. The estimated earnings level lies at 46.61, it's not yet confirmed but it should be close to where the last earnings release key level will be. A 2.8% to 5.6% position is fine for the first entry, to then add as you can reduce the stop loss distance with more confirmation of upside.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
KSS: Getting good to buy it back againI'm watching $KSS here, I'd like to buy as close to support as possible. There's an interesting time/price juncture below, where the bottom of the uptrend's linear regression channel meets both the Key Earnings Level, as well as the uptrend speedline support, making it an ideal spot to buy.
This also happens to coincide with a potential bearish range expansion failure, where today's decline would fail to validate the bearish momentum, giving way to a good buy setup.
Risk a drop under $46.40-$42.40 initially, and buy a 10% position gradually during a week or two.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.