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NATURAL GAS - Who can Predict this wild beast?Natural gas got demolished today, down over 8%. The one headline we saw hitting the tape that is having some partial influence: "Vessel Arrives at LNG Canada to Load First Cargo, Strengthening Global Supply Outlook – LNG Recap" Today, we did hedge our core long UNG position with a short dated $56 put on EQT. We are already green on that trade and looking for $56 level to come into play. Natural gas volatility sure trades in a world of its own which is why it is key to size accordingly.
NYSE:EQT
by Trading-Capital
6
Navigating a Pullback in Natural GasNatural gas prices have been on a wild ride lately, with a recent pullback raising questions about the future of this energy source. This video provides insights into navigating this market volatility, offering actionable strategies for live trading in the midst of uncertainty. Current weather forecasts for the U.S. show neither extreme heat nor cold—limiting heating or cooling demand. This typical spring-to-summer lull supports low prices . Although rig counts in the U.S. are falling—the latest count shows an 8‑week decline—production remains ample. Storage levels remain healthy, and oversupply worries persist . Natural gas rallied earlier today but faced resistance at the $4/mmBtu mark—a major psychological barrier. After hitting that ceiling, prices gave back gains, a typical sign of "rally exhaustion"
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGAS
by Trading-Capital
Natural Gas Explodes - Bullish Option ContractsTechnical Breakout Observed! Huge upside potential! Inverse Head & Shoulders breakout on daily chart. Weekly Bullish Cross 7/20 MA. - Increased Demand: After a sluggish 2024, demand for natural gas is rebounding—especially for electricity generation in North America and Asia. This is tightening the market and pushing prices up. - LNG Export Boom: New liquefied natural gas (LNG) export terminals, like the one coming online in British Columbia, are expanding shipping capacity. That’s opening up more international markets and driving up prices domestically. - Geopolitical Tensions: Broader energy markets are reacting to instability in the Middle East, particularly between Iran and Israel. While this directly impacts oil, it also creates uncertainty across all energy commodities, including natural gas. - Inventory and Supply Adjustments: After oversupply in 2024, producers are now recalibrating. But with inventories still low in some regions, prices are sensitive to even small disruptions
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGASLong
by Trading-Capital
1
Natural Gas - Soaring Upside - Option Plays!Technical Breakout Observed! Huge upside potential - Increased Demand: After a sluggish 2024, demand for natural gas is rebounding—especially for electricity generation in North America and Asia. This is tightening the market and pushing prices up. - LNG Export Boom: New liquefied natural gas (LNG) export terminals, like the one coming online in British Columbia, are expanding shipping capacity. That’s opening up more international markets and driving up prices domestically. - Geopolitical Tensions: Broader energy markets are reacting to instability in the Middle East, particularly between Iran and Israel. While this directly impacts oil, it also creates uncertainty across all energy commodities, including natural gas. - Inventory and Supply Adjustments: After oversupply in 2024, producers are now recalibrating. But with inventories still low in some regions, prices are sensitive to even small disruptions
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGAS
by Trading-Capital
1
Do You Smell That...Natural Gas Burning!Recent Trends: The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported the seventh consecutive weekly gain in inventories since late April, indicating a steady buildup ahead of summer demand. Regional Highlights: East: 340 Bcf Midwest: 396 Bcf Mountain: 166 Bcf Pacific: 199 Bcf South Central: 658 Bcf Next inventory report is June 12 2025 June 5 - 122B Build May 29 - 101B build May 22 - 120B Build These last builds have come in higher than consensus andd price is still holding. A weekly Bullish cross of the 7 / 20 MA is about to occur. This indicates high provability of higher prices on the next few months if this can hold above the key MA's.
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGAS
by Trading-Capital
Natural Gas Goes Kaboom!Profits have been secured I the Natural gas trade. That being said I still think Nat gas equities can push higher. On the UNG chart we just saw the 20 day MA & 50 Day MA bullishly crossover each other. Last time this happened Nat gas had a 4-5 day parabolic move. The bulls must be careful to not push this commodity up too quickly because it makes the pattern less likely to have a continued breakout. We are still putting in Lower weekly highs, so the next test of the most recent pivot high is going to be crucial. If the bulls can trigger the weekly inverse head and shoulder pattern there's going to be a great long continuation opportunity. Until we break the pivot high & create a higher high traders must use caution now that we've had a large move occur. AR, EQT, CPK, LNG are all set to push higher if Nat gas holds these gains.
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGAS
by Trading-Capital
1
Natural Gas: Weak Day / Strong WeekNatural gas had a bit of profit taking today and you can't blame the bulls for trimming especially since we did the same. The Daily chart now needs a couple days of consolidation before another sustainable push. The weekly chart recaptured the 50 Weekly MA...very good near term sign. This can now be used as a support level to trade against for very tight stoploss swing traders. As long as we remain above the breakout neckline we should be likely heading to retest 2.75 & $2.90 Levels below can cause nat gas to fail and fall substantially. Alway remembers the Weekly trend still has Lower highs in place.
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGAS
by Trading-Capital
Natural Gas waking up? Nat gas showed some poise today. Holding green in a red market where most commodities saw negative price action. This is impressive to see because Nat gas has a long historical trend of diverging from many commodities. The price action today also saw a red to green reversal further emphasizing the positive potential trend shift. Nat gas stocks were discounted today despite the stronger price action in the commodity. We remain bullish and long UNG, our call positions in the money.
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGAS
by Trading-Capital
Natural Gas: are bulls capitulating? The bulls have made 9 attempts at breaking out. All attempts have failed which has led us to this sharp decline. Nat gas is holding the 20 day MA but it does look somewhat vulnerable to going lower. The death cross is getting closer and closer as we approach the 50 MA & 200 MA downtrending intersection. Our members stopped out of the second half of UNG in profits I am now hoping and waiting for a sub $2 pierce retest. we shall see if we get it.
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGAS
by Trading-Capital
Natural gas is the downtrend resuming? Nat gas still fits all the criteria for a large downtrend. Lower highs & Lower lows are still in place on the weekly timeframe. This obviously swings probabilities in favour of lower price. However historically were still at some oversold levels. Just because this asset is oversold honest mean it can't go lower. Im watching the daily 50MA & 200MA closely...do we get the death cross formation to occur again? Usually this signal provides a near term bounce but medium term decline.
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGAS
by Trading-Capital
7
Natural Gas: Do or Die!We secured half of our profits yesterday, however I still think we have a very good chance of higher price. Nat gas needs to make a decision by getting above this key Covid trend line. We are observing another "death cross" formation developing. If price action keeps rejecting the daily 200MA we may go lower. Today inventories came out: consensus was 42B actual -6B This was a dramatic forecast miss & supports higher price / more demand. If Nat gas can get above this key covid trend line, we are well on our way to $3+
AMEX:UNG
by Trading-Capital
Natural Gas...bullish turnaround!Nat gas has carved out a nice potential base to move higher. We have seen a failed breakdown whcih usualkly indicates a bullish reversal. They say the biggest moves come from failed patterns an it certainly looks like a failed bearish trendline break. If this is the case, Nat gas has a nice 15-20% upside before things get really interesting. We may be witnessing a weekly inverse head & shouldrs pattern developing. Time will tell but we are long.
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGAS
by Trading-Capital
Natural Gas...New All time lows? Natural gas has seen a failed breakout on the daily chart. After this failed breakout occured its been weeks of relentless sell side pressure. We have lost key weekly and daily supports, which doesn't help the bullish case. There is 1 small positive on the daily chart: a positive RSI bullish divergence. Understanding how this commodity works, one should be prepared for a downside case of $1.60. Its not a guarantee but a possibility. The Nat gas resource stocks are mixed and showing sings of volume accumulation. I'm watching the $1.95 Gap fill on Nat Gas very closely. If the bulls defend that area we could rally quickly. Keep your eye om the "Death Cross" signal, usually a buy signal for a short term bounce.
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGAS
by Trading-Capital
Natural Gas: Will the bulls ever come back? Another sell side day for nat gas...what else is new? back to the same technical support trend line for Nat gas. technically this is support. If this trend line holds we will see an epic bounce IMO. If we break this are we could be testing $1.90. I believe that this is still a great risk to reward to accumulate for the long term, while understanding there could still be another 20% down if we break this level...so HODL accordingly.
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGAS
by Trading-Capital