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KOLD

BOIL a scalp trade LONGBOIL had trended down from a high about May 19 until June 2nd when it reversed and gained for one week before resuming its trend down. This can be seen on the half hour chart. The The attached RS indicator shows the decreasing strength trending down from 65 to 40 over the past few trading days. Upon drawing trendline support and resistance. I note that a descending or falling wedge pattern is evident. This is a bullish chart pattern predictive of a price action reversal. A volume profile is added to the chart showing the highest volume of trading at the POC line corresponding to a price of $2.58. I will trade a long trade on BOIL by way of a buy stop at $ 2.59 with a stop loss at $2.57. The target will be the top of the high volume area of the volume profile @ $2.74. This trade will risk $0.02 compared with a potential profit of $ 0.15 yielding a reward to risk of 7.5. As it turns out, I did this exact same trade this past Wednesday June 7rh. Besides 100 shares I will buy one call option striking $2.50 with an expiration of 6/30 to leverage the trade.
AMEX:BOILLong
by AwesomeAvani
41
Is KOLD getting chilled out ?KOLD's trend down may be continuing. They say weather climate conditions are for things heating up. this trader concurs albeit from one of the traditional hottest places in the entire USA and so with that bias come hell or bitter winter chill. On the chart, a persistent trend down for KOLD underneath the Ichimoku cloud of the Luxalgo indicator is easily seen. Luxalgo's Bollinger Band oscillator shows that price is riding down along the lower BB band without any outlook for a reprive. Furthermore, price is well below the high volume area of the volume profile and in the lowermost bands of the anchored VWAP. On the MACD indicator, the MACD and signal are both trending down and well below zero. In short, the value of KOLD is crashing down. Any traders long are best to consider liquidating while any value remains. I am not long KOLD and happily continue my long positions in BOIL, the inverse of it until analysis dictates otherwise.
AMEX:KOLDShort
by AwesomeAvani
UNG Natural Gas ( Unleveraged) ETF LongOn the 4 hour chart- UNG had a head and shoulder pattern in May from which it descended in a gradual fashion from May 25 to June 2nd and then reversed upward. The reversal occurred at two standard deviations below the mean anchored VWAP and so deep in the oversold area. Price has crossed over the higher VWAP line and so is in the band between the mean VWAP and one standard deviation below it. Volumes have been persistent. Importantly, the zero lag MACD shows the lines in parallel and crossing the zero horizontal line from underneath. I see UNG properly set up for a long trade. Fundamentally, the hot summer may bring increased natural gas consumption to make electricity for air conditioning. The dam disaster in Ukraine may close down the biggest nuclear plant in Europe because of cooling lakes potentially compromised. Natural gas may be an alternative fuel to make electricity. Compressed NG from the US may become more important to Europe, especially since the Nordic Stream pipeline issue developed. All in all, I think natural gas prices are likely to rise.
AMEX:UNGLong
by AwesomeAvani
3
Can KOLD make it through the summer?KOLD is a leveraged inverse of natural gas futures contracts. Natural gas prices could see a rise this summer as it is fuel for electric plants to make electricity to power air conditioning and charge all the new electric cars. Hydroelectric and wind might be green put they contribute little to the large power grid. NG is better than coal and diesel. So if a supply and demand imbalnce develops what does Eco 101 say will happen to prices ? KOLD will go down and BOIL, its inverse will go up as rising current prices will reflect in futures contracts in months ahead. On the chart, KOLD is seen in an uptrend and the RSI has crossed over the 50 line while price has crossed over the POC line of the profile ( mean price at which the most shares traded over the given date range). Bullish momentum is slightly dominating with moving averages diverging. A volume void above may result in a small jump along the way. Will the summer heat drive up NG prices and make KOLD melt?
AMEX:KOLD
by AwesomeAvani
NATGAS BOIL NG Bottoming formation.Natural gas has been basing for a few months now in what has become a very recognizable Wyckoff accumulation pattern. Complete with high volume on the start to low volume towards the end. Breakouts occur on LOW VOLUME in accumulation phases so don't look for volume to give a clue. Just like the AMEX:SPY and NASDAQ:QQQ markets did at the October bottoms. Remember everyone saying how low the volume was? Yes, same here. We also see a very recognizable MEGAPHONE BOTTOM specifically on BOIL. This is regarded as a bullish signal showing that the existing downtrend may reverse to start a new UPTREND. Further, we see evidence in arcs of a possible bottom. EW counts also suggest the bottom is in for now.
AMEX:BOILLong
by stockgienius
4
UNG- Buy at a BottomAs shown on the 4H chart, UNG has been trending down albeit with a triple top in April and a head and shoulders in early May. It is presently at the bottom of the long term volume profile and two standard deviations below the running mean anchored VWAP. This is deep undervalued territory. On the MACD indicator, the K and D lines intersecting while under the histogram which is positive portrays an early entry signal. I believe that it is inevitable that UNG will have an uptrend in June as it did in April and May. The uptrends had a slope of about 1.5-3% per day while underway. I will take a long trade in UNG and potentially BOIL while leveraging XNGUSD on forex. For UNG, the targets are the POC line of the volume profile, and mean VWAP , the final target is one standard deviation above VWAP while the stop loss is three standard deviations below VWAP ( thin green line).
AMEX:UNGLong
by AwesomeAvani
KOLD drops with Natural Gas RisesOn the daily chart KOLD has been testing resistance since February with a single touch in February , a head and shoulders in April and a double top in early May. It is now retracing due to the rise in natural gas prices in the past 10 days. A support line from a prior retracement in early March is drawn at 41.45. This analysis is further supported by the zero-lag MACD oscillator. I will take a trade of put options but short selling is another alternative. Once in the trade, a signal to close will be the red zone outside the bands as was the case in late February. The actual sell signal being the thick MACD black line inflecting from moving downward to upward. KOLD could drop 80% from the present price down to the POC line of the volume profile at about $ 12.50. If leveraged with put options this could represent a 5X profit or better. Any sustained rebound in natural gas prices will lend heavy support to this idea. IF a trader wants to capture smaller moves albeit at the risk of getting into a chop zone, a smaller time fram such as 30-120 minutes could be used.
AMEX:KOLDShort
by AwesomeAvani
1
UNG retracement complete- to uptrend again.UNG as shown on the 15-minute chart had an untrend for a week culminated by the very steep finish to the uptrend into resistance followed by a very rapid bounce down and retracement. A standard 50% Fibonacci retracement is now complete. UNG appears to be bounding off the POC line of the volume profile which coincides with the 0.5 Fib level. UNG tracks the natural gas futures, especially the leading month. It appears now ready to resume an uptrend. This is a directional bearing on the trend for any instrument based on natural gas prices including XNGUSD on forex.
AMEX:UNGLong
by AwesomeAvani
2
BOIL Megaphone PatternBOIL on the 15-minute chart is currently in an upward facing megaphone pattern. I have drawn in the upper and lower trendlines which are a form of static support and resistance. The megaphone pattern is one of increasing volatility between buyers and sellers and indecision It is the opposite of consolidation in a narrow channel. The anchored VWAP shows BOIL to be between the mean VWAP and the first standard deviation band below it. This is generally considered the lower part of the fair value zone. The volume profile has a high volume area of in the price range of 3 to 3.7 while the POC line is confluent with the VWAP. The "better" RSI oscillator/ indicator shows values above 75 at swing highs and values below 25 at swing lows. My goal in this trade is to buy at the lower ( support ) trendline and sell at the higher ( resistance) trendline. I will be watchful for any fibonnaci retracements of a prior trend. At present, BOIL is at that lower trendline and RSI is showing weakness. I will add to my position now as I did in the whipsaw action some hours ago at the location of the bearish engulfing candles in the premarket and the opening.
AMEX:BOILLong
by AwesomeAvani
XNGUSD Bull Pennant Pattern Short then LongXNG has had a big week with a big bullish momentum move into a symmetrical triangle and then a breakout into a bull flag pattern to finish out the trading week. A Bollinger Band squeeze as the symmetrical triangle was underway preceded the breakout. PRice crossed the POC line of the volume profile where trading volume , liquidity and volatility all are the highest Equities and equity funds like BOIL, KOLD, UNG, UNL, LNG had corresponding moves. The Luxalgo ECHO indicator, a predictive AI tool, suggests that from here XNGUSD will retrace 5% or so perhaps targeting the mid/basis line of the Bollinger Bands and then resume its upward trend. the retracement would be 50% of the uptrend which started the morning of 5/18 which was a 10% move. The indicator is predicting the uptrend resumption for 5/22. By extension, equity instruments that mirror natural gas prices presumably will have similar moves. I conclude that my profits achieved in BOIL options after the big move should be prtially taken off the table to buy some KOLD calls or BOIL puts instead to hedge for the prediction of the algorithm tool.
FXOPEN:XNGUSDShort
by AwesomeAvani
BOIL LONG a 3x leverage Natural Gas ETF Natural Gas prices have finally reversed on the FOREX markets after significant downtrends from a historical high. BOIL on the hourly chart has reversed a two-week downtrend and today has an increasing volume. Ir bounced off the lower Fibonacci levels and is looking to revert to the mean. Price was undervalued below the green fair value zone at the VWAP +/- one standard deviation but is now heading back into it from the buying pressure. As a 3x leveraged ETF is prone to more volatility than the unleveraged UNG counterpart. I will play this with a call option contract expiring 3/31 striking $4.00 and expecting at least a 50% return in the upcoming 8 trading days. The risk here is that this is just a short pullback on the downtrend but getting in early on a long and watching carefully is the approach I have taken.
AMEX:BOILLong
by AwesomeAvani
46
Natural Gas crash?Natural gas has crashed when comparing it to the DBC commodity ETF. If a recession takes hold, demand destruction always prevails and it looks like Nat gas is pricing this in. This price action could be a leading indicator that many other commodities may be vulnerable to a pullback. Since Natural Gas is one of the smaller components of this ETF, it can see a large influx of capital that has to stay long by rotating out of other overbought commodities. Natural gas has broken out before the DBC and it has bottomed before the DBC. Nat Gas has the largest divergence from its peers.
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGASLong
by Trading-Capital
1
Natural Gas: Commodity DivergencesThe correlation between DBC (orange line) and Nat Gas is strong. However, Nat Gas gas does have price history where it diverges, leads & lags the average DBC price action. The white arrows on the screen display the periods where Nat Gas And DBC (in orange) diverge. Some of the divergences have lead to steep pops & drops of mean reversion. What were seeing now is a massive divergence of about -33%, Nat gas has crashed and is the number one underperforming commodity in this basket. Nat gas has retraced back to the Pre Covid low levels. Looking at the DBC ETF its about 33% off the Pre Covid Lows. Over history the correlation usually tightens up and it has a long way to go to close the gap divergence. This presents one of 3 scenarios.. 1. Other commodities in the basket collapse 2. Natural Gas Rallies 3. Both options (Our Base Case)
NLong
by Trading-Capital