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KOLD

Can KOLD make it through the summer?KOLD is a leveraged inverse of natural gas futures contracts. Natural gas prices could see a rise this summer as it is fuel for electric plants to make electricity to power air conditioning and charge all the new electric cars. Hydroelectric and wind might be green put they contribute little to the large power grid. NG is better than coal and diesel. So if a supply and demand imbalnce develops what does Eco 101 say will happen to prices ? KOLD will go down and BOIL, its inverse will go up as rising current prices will reflect in futures contracts in months ahead. On the chart, KOLD is seen in an uptrend and the RSI has crossed over the 50 line while price has crossed over the POC line of the profile ( mean price at which the most shares traded over the given date range). Bullish momentum is slightly dominating with moving averages diverging. A volume void above may result in a small jump along the way. Will the summer heat drive up NG prices and make KOLD melt?
AMEX:KOLD
by AwesomeAvani
NATGAS BOIL NG Bottoming formation.Natural gas has been basing for a few months now in what has become a very recognizable Wyckoff accumulation pattern. Complete with high volume on the start to low volume towards the end. Breakouts occur on LOW VOLUME in accumulation phases so don't look for volume to give a clue. Just like the AMEX:SPY and NASDAQ:QQQ markets did at the October bottoms. Remember everyone saying how low the volume was? Yes, same here. We also see a very recognizable MEGAPHONE BOTTOM specifically on BOIL. This is regarded as a bullish signal showing that the existing downtrend may reverse to start a new UPTREND. Further, we see evidence in arcs of a possible bottom. EW counts also suggest the bottom is in for now.
AMEX:BOILLong
by stockgienius
4
UNG- Buy at a BottomAs shown on the 4H chart, UNG has been trending down albeit with a triple top in April and a head and shoulders in early May. It is presently at the bottom of the long term volume profile and two standard deviations below the running mean anchored VWAP. This is deep undervalued territory. On the MACD indicator, the K and D lines intersecting while under the histogram which is positive portrays an early entry signal. I believe that it is inevitable that UNG will have an uptrend in June as it did in April and May. The uptrends had a slope of about 1.5-3% per day while underway. I will take a long trade in UNG and potentially BOIL while leveraging XNGUSD on forex. For UNG, the targets are the POC line of the volume profile, and mean VWAP , the final target is one standard deviation above VWAP while the stop loss is three standard deviations below VWAP ( thin green line).
AMEX:UNGLong
by AwesomeAvani
KOLD drops with Natural Gas RisesOn the daily chart KOLD has been testing resistance since February with a single touch in February , a head and shoulders in April and a double top in early May. It is now retracing due to the rise in natural gas prices in the past 10 days. A support line from a prior retracement in early March is drawn at 41.45. This analysis is further supported by the zero-lag MACD oscillator. I will take a trade of put options but short selling is another alternative. Once in the trade, a signal to close will be the red zone outside the bands as was the case in late February. The actual sell signal being the thick MACD black line inflecting from moving downward to upward. KOLD could drop 80% from the present price down to the POC line of the volume profile at about $ 12.50. If leveraged with put options this could represent a 5X profit or better. Any sustained rebound in natural gas prices will lend heavy support to this idea. IF a trader wants to capture smaller moves albeit at the risk of getting into a chop zone, a smaller time fram such as 30-120 minutes could be used.
AMEX:KOLDShort
by AwesomeAvani
1
UNG retracement complete- to uptrend again.UNG as shown on the 15-minute chart had an untrend for a week culminated by the very steep finish to the uptrend into resistance followed by a very rapid bounce down and retracement. A standard 50% Fibonacci retracement is now complete. UNG appears to be bounding off the POC line of the volume profile which coincides with the 0.5 Fib level. UNG tracks the natural gas futures, especially the leading month. It appears now ready to resume an uptrend. This is a directional bearing on the trend for any instrument based on natural gas prices including XNGUSD on forex.
AMEX:UNGLong
by AwesomeAvani
2
BOIL Megaphone PatternBOIL on the 15-minute chart is currently in an upward facing megaphone pattern. I have drawn in the upper and lower trendlines which are a form of static support and resistance. The megaphone pattern is one of increasing volatility between buyers and sellers and indecision It is the opposite of consolidation in a narrow channel. The anchored VWAP shows BOIL to be between the mean VWAP and the first standard deviation band below it. This is generally considered the lower part of the fair value zone. The volume profile has a high volume area of in the price range of 3 to 3.7 while the POC line is confluent with the VWAP. The "better" RSI oscillator/ indicator shows values above 75 at swing highs and values below 25 at swing lows. My goal in this trade is to buy at the lower ( support ) trendline and sell at the higher ( resistance) trendline. I will be watchful for any fibonnaci retracements of a prior trend. At present, BOIL is at that lower trendline and RSI is showing weakness. I will add to my position now as I did in the whipsaw action some hours ago at the location of the bearish engulfing candles in the premarket and the opening.
AMEX:BOILLong
by AwesomeAvani
XNGUSD Bull Pennant Pattern Short then LongXNG has had a big week with a big bullish momentum move into a symmetrical triangle and then a breakout into a bull flag pattern to finish out the trading week. A Bollinger Band squeeze as the symmetrical triangle was underway preceded the breakout. PRice crossed the POC line of the volume profile where trading volume , liquidity and volatility all are the highest Equities and equity funds like BOIL, KOLD, UNG, UNL, LNG had corresponding moves. The Luxalgo ECHO indicator, a predictive AI tool, suggests that from here XNGUSD will retrace 5% or so perhaps targeting the mid/basis line of the Bollinger Bands and then resume its upward trend. the retracement would be 50% of the uptrend which started the morning of 5/18 which was a 10% move. The indicator is predicting the uptrend resumption for 5/22. By extension, equity instruments that mirror natural gas prices presumably will have similar moves. I conclude that my profits achieved in BOIL options after the big move should be prtially taken off the table to buy some KOLD calls or BOIL puts instead to hedge for the prediction of the algorithm tool.
FXOPEN:XNGUSDShort
by AwesomeAvani
BOIL LONG a 3x leverage Natural Gas ETF Natural Gas prices have finally reversed on the FOREX markets after significant downtrends from a historical high. BOIL on the hourly chart has reversed a two-week downtrend and today has an increasing volume. Ir bounced off the lower Fibonacci levels and is looking to revert to the mean. Price was undervalued below the green fair value zone at the VWAP +/- one standard deviation but is now heading back into it from the buying pressure. As a 3x leveraged ETF is prone to more volatility than the unleveraged UNG counterpart. I will play this with a call option contract expiring 3/31 striking $4.00 and expecting at least a 50% return in the upcoming 8 trading days. The risk here is that this is just a short pullback on the downtrend but getting in early on a long and watching carefully is the approach I have taken.
AMEX:BOILLong
by AwesomeAvani
46
Natural Gas crash?Natural gas has crashed when comparing it to the DBC commodity ETF. If a recession takes hold, demand destruction always prevails and it looks like Nat gas is pricing this in. This price action could be a leading indicator that many other commodities may be vulnerable to a pullback. Since Natural Gas is one of the smaller components of this ETF, it can see a large influx of capital that has to stay long by rotating out of other overbought commodities. Natural gas has broken out before the DBC and it has bottomed before the DBC. Nat Gas has the largest divergence from its peers.
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGASLong
by Trading-Capital
1
Natural Gas: Commodity DivergencesThe correlation between DBC (orange line) and Nat Gas is strong. However, Nat Gas gas does have price history where it diverges, leads & lags the average DBC price action. The white arrows on the screen display the periods where Nat Gas And DBC (in orange) diverge. Some of the divergences have lead to steep pops & drops of mean reversion. What were seeing now is a massive divergence of about -33%, Nat gas has crashed and is the number one underperforming commodity in this basket. Nat gas has retraced back to the Pre Covid low levels. Looking at the DBC ETF its about 33% off the Pre Covid Lows. Over history the correlation usually tightens up and it has a long way to go to close the gap divergence. This presents one of 3 scenarios.. 1. Other commodities in the basket collapse 2. Natural Gas Rallies 3. Both options (Our Base Case)
NLong
by Trading-Capital
Natural Gas? More Like Natural Go. 4-Handle Coming.Over the course of 48 trading days between the Dec. 13 high and the Feb. 3 low, natural gas has lost 69 percent of its value. Let's put that into perspective. Just imagine if, over the next 2 months: Gold went from $1,874 to $590 WTI crude went from $79.72 to $24.17 Bitcoin futures went from $21,775 to $6,750 The SPX went from 4099.75 to 1,270 That's the kind of thing that just happened to natural gas, and naturally, it makes people wonder if they can get long, but they're also scared to get long. And it's fair to be scared. NG's MMs are the biggest maniacs in any commodity or equity and a fall from $2.50 to $1.25 isn't "just a dollar" anymore, it's 50%, which kind of matters when you're levered long on 2-3x ETFs or just trying to trade big lot COMEX. Regardless, I believe the time is right to go long. I don't believe the time is right to go long for $18. But I do believe that the time is right to bag the better part of an impending - and sharp - 50-75% move. Eyes on China I have to urge readers that you simply must be cautious with any long position at present, for the Wuhan Pneumonia situation in Mainland China is extremely dangerous. Whatever you choose to believe when it comes to the Chinese Communist Party, I won't give you a hard time. If you want to believe the establishment narrative that Xi Jinping's hysterical Zero COVID weld-people-in-apartment-buildings social credit scheme actually made the virus not kill anyone to the degree that the Mainland, despite being the world's (formerly) most populous country and ground zero of the epidemic has suffered tens or hundreds of times less deaths and cases than the west , okay, you do you. But when you see Zero-COVID fall, the Party says there were suddenly tens of thousands of new deaths and millions of new cases, and then since Jan. 10, the John Hopkins University tracker has reported ***0.00*** new cases, every single red alarm bell in your whole body should be ringing. In our lifetimes, we will see the Chinese Communist Party fall. It will probably take Xi Jinping down with it, but it might not. And ultimately all the crimes against humanity the Party has committed, especially the 23-year persecution of Falun Gong and the unprecedented live organ harvesting of its practitioners (and Uyghur Muslims) will become the only thing in the world that matters. Markets will actually gap down those days and won't come back. Wall Street won't be risk-on, at all, anymore. And thus, the algos won't be market making anymore. The Call Last year, I had two extremely successful calls on Natural Gas: Published in October: Natural Gas / NG - Act II: A Number That Starts With "2" I don't think anyone believed that at the time. And in September, I had called when the market had finally turned from bear to bull: Natural Gas / NG - It's Officially a Bear. Now, Hold My Beer Now, it's nice to have had some success, but please remember: 1. Broken clocks are still right twice a day 2. Past performance is not indicative of future performance Now, for where we're currently at, there are some key factors: Natural gas went down in a straight line for 33 trading sessions (thanks, Freemasons!) The first trading day of the year was a gap dump A brief sweep of the $10 psyop figure was _not_ the medium or long-term top. 2020 already had months of 1-handle NG hasn't taken the December '20 monthly pivot at $2.2 and has started to show signs of reversal We're getting close to summer, which is going to be HOT again because the planet's climate is trashed (just not from that CO2 propaganda nonsense. Earth is just an old man on life support, for real.) Natural gas is this thing that produces most of the world's electricity, in a world that's using ever more electricity all the time And so what I would ultimately like to point out is the ONLY thing you need to know as a trader: A bounce from Friday's session close back to the gap set on the first trading day of the year amounts to a 75% gain. Now let's say that the MMs aren't going to squeeze shorts that badly or reward bulls, even temporarily. Either way, the algorithm is for sure going to rebalance this extreme of a drop, and even if it were to rebalance 50%, you're still looking at a 35% gain. I believe that for certain NG is about to bounce. It's just that either: a) The bottom isn't yet in b) The bottom is in after a 90% retrace to the $2.35 bottoms (this should occur when Nasdaq goes ham as Wall Street "Big Shorts" tech to retail and Cathie Woods) Nasdaq NQ QQQ - Reality Will Be a Tough Pill for Permabears $3.6 - $3.8 is the conservative upside target $4.2 - $5.0 is the maniac upside target Either way, I don't believe it's going to V-Bottom and run $18 and feed inflationary pressures, since equities need to go up before they go down, and CPI printing big gains will really get in the way of the narrative being woven by Citadel's PR firms. I think this spike should come fast and strong and the retrace won't be that bad, but will be consolidate-y. July of 2023 and straight through the middle of 2024, if humanity makes it functionally that long, is going to be very inflationary and very chaotic. The status quo, the old normalcy, is long gone, and never coming back. Mankind is walking towards both the end, and its future. Be careful. You choose your path with your heart and your conduct.
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by LordWrymouth
27
KOLD uptrend inside uptrend inside uptrend and possible going upThe oversold AMEX:KOLD presents us with an interesting pattern of 3 uptrends inside each other on the 15 min chart, coming from a daily reversal. The zone on the analysis is located in a sweet spot, giving us the opportunity for a first target at 5:1 and second target over 10:1. Even more if we're wanting to be patient and wait for the breakout the weekly resistance. Risk: 0.76 per share Shares: 131 ($100 total risk) Target 1: 75.43 Target 2: 80.91 I will take the trade a second time if price hits stop loss and goes back up in the trade direction, as price crosses entry point going up. There's a second zone sitting right below the first one.
AMEX:KOLDLong
by mdougllas
BOIL UPDATE LONGTERMOn the daily chart, BOIL price has never been lower and the relative volume has never been higher in the past five years. Being mindful, this is leveraged it falls faster than an the unleveraged counterpart of the same commodity ( UNG INL) However moves in the opposite directions are also amplified. Horizontal red lines are drawn in consideration of pivots on the 4H. Price was nearly $600 in 2019. Can you think of a fundamental reason why price cannot rise from the present price to something closer to that of 2019. To go from $4 to $600 is 150X in otherwords 15000%. Is there anything wrong with my math or the chart?
AMEX:BOILLong
by AwesomeAvani
4
Natural gas is almost done consolidating On the 4th hour chart , natural gas looks to be forming a minor bullish divergence on the MACD. It has also formed a falling wedge , which has a higher probability of breaking to the upside. The current sell off was obvious when natural gas rallied to the upper trend line and couldn't break it. A move to the lower trendline is almost finished , a grind lower to tag it is very possible , and a move to 2.22 is not to be ruled out. The zone that natural gas has entered will , in my opinion, yield a reaction very soon.
PEPPERSTONE:NATGASLong
by Fida4u