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KOLD

Natural Gas crash?Natural gas has crashed when comparing it to the DBC commodity ETF. If a recession takes hold, demand destruction always prevails and it looks like Nat gas is pricing this in. This price action could be a leading indicator that many other commodities may be vulnerable to a pullback. Since Natural Gas is one of the smaller components of this ETF, it can see a large influx of capital that has to stay long by rotating out of other overbought commodities. Natural gas has broken out before the DBC and it has bottomed before the DBC. Nat Gas has the largest divergence from its peers.
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGASLong
by Trading-Capital
1
Natural Gas: Commodity DivergencesThe correlation between DBC (orange line) and Nat Gas is strong. However, Nat Gas gas does have price history where it diverges, leads & lags the average DBC price action. The white arrows on the screen display the periods where Nat Gas And DBC (in orange) diverge. Some of the divergences have lead to steep pops & drops of mean reversion. What were seeing now is a massive divergence of about -33%, Nat gas has crashed and is the number one underperforming commodity in this basket. Nat gas has retraced back to the Pre Covid low levels. Looking at the DBC ETF its about 33% off the Pre Covid Lows. Over history the correlation usually tightens up and it has a long way to go to close the gap divergence. This presents one of 3 scenarios.. 1. Other commodities in the basket collapse 2. Natural Gas Rallies 3. Both options (Our Base Case)
NLong
by Trading-Capital
Natural Gas? More Like Natural Go. 4-Handle Coming.Over the course of 48 trading days between the Dec. 13 high and the Feb. 3 low, natural gas has lost 69 percent of its value. Let's put that into perspective. Just imagine if, over the next 2 months: Gold went from $1,874 to $590 WTI crude went from $79.72 to $24.17 Bitcoin futures went from $21,775 to $6,750 The SPX went from 4099.75 to 1,270 That's the kind of thing that just happened to natural gas, and naturally, it makes people wonder if they can get long, but they're also scared to get long. And it's fair to be scared. NG's MMs are the biggest maniacs in any commodity or equity and a fall from $2.50 to $1.25 isn't "just a dollar" anymore, it's 50%, which kind of matters when you're levered long on 2-3x ETFs or just trying to trade big lot COMEX. Regardless, I believe the time is right to go long. I don't believe the time is right to go long for $18. But I do believe that the time is right to bag the better part of an impending - and sharp - 50-75% move. Eyes on China I have to urge readers that you simply must be cautious with any long position at present, for the Wuhan Pneumonia situation in Mainland China is extremely dangerous. Whatever you choose to believe when it comes to the Chinese Communist Party, I won't give you a hard time. If you want to believe the establishment narrative that Xi Jinping's hysterical Zero COVID weld-people-in-apartment-buildings social credit scheme actually made the virus not kill anyone to the degree that the Mainland, despite being the world's (formerly) most populous country and ground zero of the epidemic has suffered tens or hundreds of times less deaths and cases than the west , okay, you do you. But when you see Zero-COVID fall, the Party says there were suddenly tens of thousands of new deaths and millions of new cases, and then since Jan. 10, the John Hopkins University tracker has reported ***0.00*** new cases, every single red alarm bell in your whole body should be ringing. In our lifetimes, we will see the Chinese Communist Party fall. It will probably take Xi Jinping down with it, but it might not. And ultimately all the crimes against humanity the Party has committed, especially the 23-year persecution of Falun Gong and the unprecedented live organ harvesting of its practitioners (and Uyghur Muslims) will become the only thing in the world that matters. Markets will actually gap down those days and won't come back. Wall Street won't be risk-on, at all, anymore. And thus, the algos won't be market making anymore. The Call Last year, I had two extremely successful calls on Natural Gas: Published in October: Natural Gas / NG - Act II: A Number That Starts With "2" I don't think anyone believed that at the time. And in September, I had called when the market had finally turned from bear to bull: Natural Gas / NG - It's Officially a Bear. Now, Hold My Beer Now, it's nice to have had some success, but please remember: 1. Broken clocks are still right twice a day 2. Past performance is not indicative of future performance Now, for where we're currently at, there are some key factors: Natural gas went down in a straight line for 33 trading sessions (thanks, Freemasons!) The first trading day of the year was a gap dump A brief sweep of the $10 psyop figure was _not_ the medium or long-term top. 2020 already had months of 1-handle NG hasn't taken the December '20 monthly pivot at $2.2 and has started to show signs of reversal We're getting close to summer, which is going to be HOT again because the planet's climate is trashed (just not from that CO2 propaganda nonsense. Earth is just an old man on life support, for real.) Natural gas is this thing that produces most of the world's electricity, in a world that's using ever more electricity all the time And so what I would ultimately like to point out is the ONLY thing you need to know as a trader: A bounce from Friday's session close back to the gap set on the first trading day of the year amounts to a 75% gain. Now let's say that the MMs aren't going to squeeze shorts that badly or reward bulls, even temporarily. Either way, the algorithm is for sure going to rebalance this extreme of a drop, and even if it were to rebalance 50%, you're still looking at a 35% gain. I believe that for certain NG is about to bounce. It's just that either: a) The bottom isn't yet in b) The bottom is in after a 90% retrace to the $2.35 bottoms (this should occur when Nasdaq goes ham as Wall Street "Big Shorts" tech to retail and Cathie Woods) Nasdaq NQ QQQ - Reality Will Be a Tough Pill for Permabears $3.6 - $3.8 is the conservative upside target $4.2 - $5.0 is the maniac upside target Either way, I don't believe it's going to V-Bottom and run $18 and feed inflationary pressures, since equities need to go up before they go down, and CPI printing big gains will really get in the way of the narrative being woven by Citadel's PR firms. I think this spike should come fast and strong and the retrace won't be that bad, but will be consolidate-y. July of 2023 and straight through the middle of 2024, if humanity makes it functionally that long, is going to be very inflationary and very chaotic. The status quo, the old normalcy, is long gone, and never coming back. Mankind is walking towards both the end, and its future. Be careful. You choose your path with your heart and your conduct.
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by LordWrymouth
27
KOLD uptrend inside uptrend inside uptrend and possible going upThe oversold AMEX:KOLD presents us with an interesting pattern of 3 uptrends inside each other on the 15 min chart, coming from a daily reversal. The zone on the analysis is located in a sweet spot, giving us the opportunity for a first target at 5:1 and second target over 10:1. Even more if we're wanting to be patient and wait for the breakout the weekly resistance. Risk: 0.76 per share Shares: 131 ($100 total risk) Target 1: 75.43 Target 2: 80.91 I will take the trade a second time if price hits stop loss and goes back up in the trade direction, as price crosses entry point going up. There's a second zone sitting right below the first one.
AMEX:KOLDLong
by mdougllas
BOIL UPDATE LONGTERMOn the daily chart, BOIL price has never been lower and the relative volume has never been higher in the past five years. Being mindful, this is leveraged it falls faster than an the unleveraged counterpart of the same commodity ( UNG INL) However moves in the opposite directions are also amplified. Horizontal red lines are drawn in consideration of pivots on the 4H. Price was nearly $600 in 2019. Can you think of a fundamental reason why price cannot rise from the present price to something closer to that of 2019. To go from $4 to $600 is 150X in otherwords 15000%. Is there anything wrong with my math or the chart?
AMEX:BOILLong
by AwesomeAvani
4
Natural gas is almost done consolidating On the 4th hour chart , natural gas looks to be forming a minor bullish divergence on the MACD. It has also formed a falling wedge , which has a higher probability of breaking to the upside. The current sell off was obvious when natural gas rallied to the upper trend line and couldn't break it. A move to the lower trendline is almost finished , a grind lower to tag it is very possible , and a move to 2.22 is not to be ruled out. The zone that natural gas has entered will , in my opinion, yield a reaction very soon.
PEPPERSTONE:NATGASLong
by Fida4u
Natural gas is prepping for a big moveNatural gas is prepping for a big move to the upside after the gap fill that's marked on the chart (2.35 vicinity). The gap coincidently lines up with the lower trend line of a falling wedge , making this area a magnet. The move in Natural gas in the previous weeks was very large , which subsequently required some consolidation before another leg. Assuming the general markets can sustain some footing or stall , despite the Silicone Valley bank debacle, natural gas can make a move to the $4 mark.
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by Fida4u
Natural gas is overextended Natural gas looks to be forming a near-term top in what I think is an ABC move up. Bearish divergences are building on the hourly and 4 hr chart. Although, these divergences can continue to build while Natural gas grinds up , the risk-reward ratio warrants caution. Where does the B wave look to target? The $2.40 vicinity looks plausible, being there was a lot of price action there, a gap , and an attractive fib extension zone. The subsequent C wave will be spectacular, with the potentional of having a 3 or 4 handle.
NYMEX:NG1!Short
by Fida4u
1