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Kondratieff Wave

Started investing early & hoping to retire? I have bad news...Alot of people that sheeply followed all the motivators, Warren Buffet included tbh, are going to be pretty disapointed. So how far can the S&P 500 go? IF the GDP rise stops slowing down, and all the issues people have ignored (burying their heads in the sand) such as pollution, old people costing more and more, obese people, people getting dumber (it's a real thing), so in other words it won't happen. But if magically the GDP stopped slowing down. IF also, in 30 years we happen to be in a bubble the likes of 2000. THEN, sure, the S&P 500 can reach 10,000 points in 30 years. So, in the most unrealisticly bullish scenario, the returns will still be far inferior to the past. The technoligical advancements made in the XXth century are the biggest ever made, do the motivational people out there really think we are going to colonize the galaxy in the next decades? That's the magnitude of what it will take to be as bullish. We went to living in mud traveling by horse and not even having tv to instantly communicating with each other anywhere on the planet, having supermarkets (ye those did not exist 80 years ago), flying planes, driving cars, geez there are so many huge ones. This will be unrivaled, maybe forever. The gdp increase compare to let's say the roman empire, what is it? 1000 times more? I have no idea but I understand why we went up so much. Warren Buffet, does he not know this? He just got lucky after all? Just think of all the changes that happened since 1900. Try to imagine how much would have to be accomplished. What more could happen to increase GDP? Make commute faster? The technology has advanced so fast people have gotten fat and lazy... We are also using up earth ressources much faster than we should if you heard... I would bet all my money on this. I am 100% sure in the next 30 years there won't be any insane bull market like in the XXth century. It is literally impossible. I do not know if I was clear. All these things we created, they made the GDP go up. They changed things in a way that can never be beaten. Going to give an example, it's not great but all I can think of right now: We went from idk let's say 5% office/intellectual jobs 45% agriculture 50% industry (random numbers) to 75% 10% 15%. We cannot make another increase of 70% in office jobs. Max is 100 total. Well, we can, with robots, but... whatever you get what I mean. We went from going around the world in 80 days at best to a few hours. We cannot make such a leap in the time it takes to go around the world, as time travel is IMPOSSIBLE. We went from like 5 babies out of 8 dying to 0.01 out of 2... Not much room for progress here... I'm not super clean in what I say, but I think people that read this understood. You might have heard that based on historical evidence, you could retire with 1 million $ invested in the stock market (adjusted for inflation) in any 30 years window back in the XXth / most of the XXth century, as long as you only withdrew 30.000/40.000 $ a year. Well, past performance is not indicative of future performance. I can even almost guarentee to you that it will not work. It's like anything that used to work of the masses heard about, simply stops working. Does not mean investing is not good. But increases closer to what I think is the "average" of what it normally does (remind me to check prices in the 18th 19th century, as well as greek roman persian japan india etc estimated GDP back centuries ago). Maybe goes up like in 1870-1920? That 1930-2000 period. Are you serious? Warren Buffet is a noob lol. All he has seen his whole life is a bull market. He has never tasted anything else than a massive overly bullish market. He has lived when the biggest advances in human history were made. We fly aorund the world in planes are you serious? Man has literally dreamed about this for hundreds of thousands of years. We (well NA EURO OCE Japan) NEVER GO HUNGRY (unless we have shitty parents). We went to the moon! Let's say we land a man on mars now, so what? Not going to mean much compared to what has been done already... Mark my words. It's all going to slow down.
DJ:DJIEducation
by MrRenev
1
Economy MAJOR slowdown. LONG TERM.Call this idea trash if you do not understand it idc, but it is happening. But the thing is: - People are getting more and more stupid, as proven by research. Plus just look at all the crypto investors, feminists, flat earthers etc, people whining about random crap that makes no sense. - Technologies are advancing (for now...? sometimes I wonder if we will make a leap back) requiring smarter people. "The US military does not accept anyone with an IQ of 83 or less into their ranks (it is illegal) as there is NOTHING they could be trained to do in the military that was not counter productive" I could not care less if it is "ethical" or not to talk about this, it is absolutely retarded to bury one's head in the sand: Dumb people are losing their jobs to technological advances. There are less and less people smart enough to work. Dumb people make lots of babies. The USA for the whole XXth century filtered their migrants and only took the best, well maybe some were picked on a "lottery" system. But they mainly took all the brains. They even recruited nazi scientists and stole germany discoveries. I do not know if unemployed idiots are going to civil war, but let me tell you I got a hunch which side is going to win ;) One side might even defeat itself somehow. At some point will humanity divide into two groups as foreseen half a century ago? The smart handsome on a side and the dumb fat ugly on the other? It is happening, even if every one buries their head in the sand. Should the government create "special" jobs for the dumb rather than give them free money? The smart are paying for the dumb welfare, might as well remove some robots and advances and put the dumb to good use somehow... Picking up trash? The military lowest IQ is 83, but I am sure we can come up with jobs that require even less. Even 83 is pretty low... I would rather not have a bunch of apes responsible for something so sensitive... NOW LISTEN UP. THE WARREN BUFFET METHOD WORKED IN THE XXth CENTURY. HE HAD SOME LUCK ON HIS SIDE. "IF THE USA CAN SURVIVE TWO WORLD WARS THEN IT CAN SURVIVE ANYTHING" BEEP! BEEP! WRONG! HIROSHIMA RECOVERED AFTER NUCLEAR FALLOUT! SOME LEFTIST PLACES IN THE USA LOOK WORSE THAN HIROSHIMA NAGASAKI, AND I AM NOT TALKING ABOUT PRESENT DAY HIROSHIMA ;) The Warren Buffet method is not going to work anymore. Sorry not that simple. Just like trading methods they stop working, or at least not as obvious... Oh, if only they were some countries that proved their excellency over millenia to invest in in the next decades...
DJ:DJIShort
by MrRenev
7
The gold cycle entered to 6th yearDear trader. Two month ago i have been publish an idea that looking for bottom on the chart for gold but it doesn't happen. Last week just i see a red candle in the end of cycle. It seems we have change trend on this chart in the near future and we can have a good deal with gold right now. Because, I have many evidence. It doesn't matter what other pair tell us what going on with gold. I just take a look at gold. Just take a look at this analysis on 19th Oct: many other people tell me if you see bottom why you don't sell gold and the answer is clear. We are not trading gold because Gold has commodity value. Alright guys, lets back to the gold in long term view: As you see, We have a trendline from 417 to 1043 and the result for third point is 1207. So, We break the 1207. But what happen? just we were 12 week under trend line and it's not a big time to be there for get longterm bearish signal. Now i tell you my evidence to give long term bullish signal: Yes! We have deny the bearish signal with a STRONGGGGG Fullbody candle. And the other hand we break the 200SMA with this fullbody candle. OMG! An overview of gold in six years, As you see we have jumping like a spring after end of this cycle's and i believe this year we have double jump. Because when we deny any bearish trend and when back on the previous bullish trend we have get energy to break all resistance. So, Lets describe all years: 1) Jump from 1202 to 1390 2) Jump from 1195 to 1307 3) Jump from 1066 to 1375 4) Jump from 1132 to 1358 5) Jump from 1254 to 1365 And 6th cycle? ..... ?! I guess we have a 3month target for 1361 to 1384 and if we break this level we can see 1420 and 1580 for end of 2019. ============================================================================== PLEASE LEAVE ME COMMENT AND LIKE MY ANALYSIS IF YOU INTEREST MY ANALYSIS. FOLLOW ME TO SEE MY UPDATE FOR GOLD. and join my Twitter account. ============================================================================== Have a good trade, Technical analysis by: Pooya Salehipour
TVC:GOLDLong
by PooyaSalehipour
3
GBP/USDGBP/USD Could take a week to hit, could take a month to hit, what matters most are the conditions before it hits: 1. What time is it? Volume? Volatility? 2. What day is it? Volume? Volatility? 3. Confirmation? 4. If it passes a certain length away from entry, then the analysis is invalidated and is most likely to go in the opposite direction. At this point, I do not care if my SL gets hit, as this is the LIVE backtesting phase, my risk will be very much controlled. 1-3% risk while my reward can be sometimes 20-30% gains. Caution: My analysis is entirely subjective , it is based off my experience trading within the market using this strategy. Any attempt to copy my "strategy" will most likely result in you hitting your stop loss. These ideas are not objective , I do not look for any specific set of rules but it all depends on what I see.
Long
by Forex_Troll
LOOM - 5th trunscated Elliott WavesAlthough Loom has not reached its all-time losing target (the bottom area is estimated at 500 sts), Loom has almost reacted to the market by creating a 5-zone fail zone with a 2-zone bottom at 1020. This is a very good signal, the current wave of rising again Loom is generating waves Elliott Leading, correcting the area will be strong gains in the next two weeks. We recommend that you trade the following orders: EP: 1123-1190 (PO => SL and Buy at 505 - 510) TP: 2700 TG: 3700 And you, let us know your thoughts by the comments below, like and subcribe if you like, thank you! Team Trade +
LLong
by GameonVentures
4
BCC - Dropping 50% correction and losing 24 times valueBCC - Dropping 50% correction and losing 24 times value a. Continue to fall in price to 0.053445, completing the wave region at H4 to prepare for a correction wave. * This order will be canceled if BCC exceeds 0.077537 b. Increase 50% after decrease in area 0.084807, complete wave of H4 to start the last downtrend of BCC. EP: 0.053445 TP: 0.084807 * SL c. Decreased 24 times value on the bottom, losing 96% of the value of the BTC EP: 0.003552 * This EP will be updated correctly after completion of the i. All transactions need to set SL ii. Price details may vary by Fibonacci level iii. Please comment us, do not forget to Like, Follow and Share as it is free! Good luck Thanks! From Team Trade +
BShort
by GameonVentures
3
Traveling an ascending channel creating a fifth waveNice ascending channel thats following mid trade trade line nicely. Mid trade line can be used to see where key resistance/support can be tested. Suspecting we are following a third leg up in a Kondratieff wave. Creating a fifth ascending elliot wave and possibly creating a first larger ascending wave. We could see the fifth wave touch the top of the channel at $12-13k or higher before seeing a descending reversal pattern.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by KondrackiKarl
The beginning of the Kondratieff cycle for btc and otherWe can open the STR / BTC chart to see that its price has fallen very low in this zone and has returned to the initial level where it has been for a long time but that's only the price in dollars has remained many times higher. Also you can look at my analysis etc \ btc where you will see that its price also goes to the bottom. Now on the chart you can see that we will either get a cup with a handle on the weekly chart or head and shoulders. In any case, bitcoin is likely to go up. My vision is that bitcoin and other crypto-currencies are not just created, but are one of the branches of the next Kondratieff cycle and one of the links in the evolution of mankind. From its very beginning, the price has already been laid for many years to come, only occasionally bitcoin is released into free fall and allows simple traders to open or fix transactions, after which a premeditated campaign begins. All this was created by large banks and people who have the strongest influence in the world and we are only at the beginning of the road. If you remember many who like to follow the waves of Eliot who I do not advise to consider for analysis - then we should fall to 2000-1000 thousand dollars not reach and 6000 thousand dollars for btc. That's my vision of the situation. Bitcoin will reach the level of 13,500 dollars after which it will most likely drop to 900-1300 dollars after which the kondratieff cycle will begin and we will see prices of $ 250,000 and more for one coin. The same will be the case with the Altkoks. If after 11000-13500 there is not such a large correction, then the kondratieff cycle began earlier. Below you will see my vision on etc. Wait for $ 500 next year in ETC and other altcoins . Other altcoins will also make a big profit - an example is dgb which can reach 4000-6000 satosi the price at 11000-13500 we should see by the end of 2017.
Long
by DmitryMayakovsky
4
Dow Jones Long Term Kondratieff ViewThis is a long term chart of the Dow Jones Industrials Index showing the 4 different Kondratieff seasons (Spring, Summer, Autumn, Winter). Spring and Autumn are secular bull markets and Summer and Winter are secular bear markets. I reckon that the Winter bear market will take stocks down to about 4000 points and Gold to about 6000 USD/oz. This would result in a Dow to Gold Ratio of 0.75 and conversely a stock market collapse of ~ 98% in real terms measuring from the peak in 2000 when 44 oz of Gold were required to purchase the Dow Jones Industrials.
DJ:DJIShort
by SMK83
2
ECOMOMIC CYCLEKondratiev wave The economic cycle has four phases: improvement, prosperity, recession and depression. Now we are in a phase of recession or inflation Economic bubble. Within the next 5 years there will be big changes in the world. Shange of the financial system, the educational system, technology. In 2000 We didnt moved from the 20th to the 21st century. We use 20st century technology. But very soon things will change. We are witnessing a financial apocalypse. Peace to all
SEducation
by EXCAVO
32