The Magic of Cycles - Part IIThis chart reviews the four major cycles affecting humanity, being the:
- Kondratieff Cycle;
- Strauss-Howe Generations Cycle;
- W.D. Gann Property Cycle; and
- Solar Cycle.
I contrast these cycles with Global events of the time, the price of Gold, the US M2 monetary aggregate, and US Interest rates.
My commentary on the chart is available on Patreon for free. Enjoy!
Kondratiev
Silver 60 year super cycle bottomed in March. A 60 year cycle developed in the 1920s by the famous economist is observed on the silver chart, you can take a closer look by dragging the graph. The first cycle measures 60 years since there was little trading and large time gaps were made in fixing the price. Since the 70s when the market became active this cycle spins out 30 years - a proportion (1/2) of the 60 year cycle. We also see a cup and handle pattern on a huge year range. Very bullish. Upper side price target in 2028 found by my system is 152$ per ounce of silver.
Dow Jones Long Term Kondratieff ViewThis is a long term chart of the Dow Jones Industrials Index showing the 4 different Kondratieff seasons (Spring, Summer, Autumn, Winter). Spring and Autumn are secular bull markets and Summer and Winter are secular bear markets. I reckon that the Winter bear market will take stocks down to about 4000 points and Gold to about 6000 USD/oz. This would result in a Dow to Gold Ratio of 0.75 and conversely a stock market collapse of ~ 98% in real terms measuring from the peak in 2000 when 44 oz of Gold were required to purchase the Dow Jones Industrials.