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Kovach

Stocks Await the FOMCStocks are hovering at lows, establishing value in the mid 3700's. The S&P 500 is clearly waiting for the FOMC event today, so don't expect much action at open. The Kovach OBV has picked up a bit, and we have found support in the low 3700's. We appear to be forming a small bull wedge pattern with a neckline at 3758. If we do break out, we should find immediate resistance in the 3800's, starting at 3792, however another dump could take us back to lows at 3694.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
1
Has Litecoin Bottomed??Litecoin plunged deeper finding support at the base of the $40 handle, just above our next target below at $39.05. After that, we saw a nice pivot back to $45.48, which appears to be holding as a resistance level. We are seeing a lot of volatility between $40 and $45.48, which typically signifies a bottom, but in these markets we can't be sure. We expect current levels to hold today as the markets anticipate the FOMC event tomorrow. If we dump further, watch $39.05 to hold as a hard lower bound, but if not, we are free to test the lower $30 handle.
BITSTAMP:LTCUSDShort
by quantguy
3
ETH Holds 4 Digits... For NowEthereum plunged deeper into the $1K's, smashing $1235, and penetrating the vacuum zone between this level and $1017. Recall that $1017 is an extremely relevant Fibonacci level drawn at day level granularity. This is the level that is the barrier between ETH and 3 digit prices. The Kovach OBV is solidly bearish, but we seem to have pivoted from the high $1K's back to $1235. This is the type of buyback we would expect near a bottom. The markets are likely to be quiet ahead of the FOMC event tomorrow, so expect some ranging at current levels, with $1017 a hard lower bound for now.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDShort
by quantguy
Bitcoin Pivots! Is this the Bottom??Bitcoin extended its decline all the way down to $20K. We fell down to our lower level at $20.7K exactly, before we finally got a pivot back to $22.4K, where we are establishing value now. This is exactly the type of pivot we would expect from crypto at a relative low. It is unlikely that Bitcoin will dump much further, for now at least. But the Kovach OBV is still abysmally bearish and resistance at $22.4K seems to be holding strong. There is an FOMC event tomorrow, so the markets are likely to be quiet, and we can expect BTC to range a bit, establishing value before the event.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by quantguy
Another Breakout in Sight for Oil??Oil has gotten support from just above $116, which we anticipated to hold as a lower bound. It hit our target of $122 before a technical retracement brought us back to lower levels. We knew this would only be transient and sure enough, oil is back to relative highs, just a few ticks below our level at $122.95. The Kovach OBV is still strong, so there is no reason to expect a retracement past $116. We may play the range a bit, so watch $122.95 for resistance. If we are able to break it the next level is $126.50.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by quantguy
Stocks Stabilize Ahead of FOMCThe S&P 500 has dumped further, and we are well below previous relative lows. It was pretty much a straight dive from the 4100's to the 3700's, with very little buy back or even a sign of a technical retracement. We do appear to be finding support at 3758, with a wick extending down a bit further to 3714 or so. After that, we got a small pivot back to 3792 or so. The Kovach OBV has leveled off and is even starting to turn up a bit, suggesting that we may see continued support at these levels and even range a bit between 3758 and 3792. We anticipate 3714 to be a floor for now, but another proper selloff could easily smash through and test the 3600's. It should be a quiet day today as the markets are anticipating the FOMC tomorrow.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
Litecoin Plummets wtih Crypto MeltdownLitecoin got smashed with the rest of the crypto market as the APAC session reacted to soaring US inflation data released on Friday. We have sliced through major levels to find support in the $40's. It is difficult to imagine that in our last report on Friday, the support level was $61.75. We've since broken through lows at $55.84, then $51.92, then $45.58. It appeared that we were going to make a run for the $30's, but have since found support just above that, in the vacuum zone between $39.05 and $45.48. The Kovach OBV is looking pretty abysmal, and we are not seeing much in the way of a buy-back.
BITSTAMP:LTCUSDShort
by quantguy
Three Digit Prices for ETH??Ethereum got clobbered with the rest of the crypto market this weekend. It is hard to imagine we were testing the $2K's just a few days ago, giving up several major levels of support since then to find support in the $1200's. Ethereum seemed to have taken the brunt of the crypto selloff of Friday, but the rest followed as APAC digested US CPI inflation data. The extent of this selloff is reminiscent of 2018, a total meltdown. We've sliced through all of our technical support levels from below, and have had to use inverse Fibonacci levels to anticipate more. We are currently clinging to support at $1235. We have a major support level from Fibonacci levels drawn from the daily charts at around $1000, which is the last barrier between ETH and 3 digit prices.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDShort
by quantguy
Bitcoin at Year Lows as Crypto Market DUMPS!! 🤯📉The crypto market was absolutely annihilated last night as the APAC session sold off hard in reaction to the CPI print on Friday as well as their view of the Fed's reaction to it. Bitcoin smashed through the lower bound of our range at $27.9K. We had been holding this range for one month. We warned that Bitcoin holding a range for that long with such little buying interest was a likely sign we would dip further. However, we have smashed through our low from May 12th at $25.1K, finally finding support at $23.8K. If support fails here, the next level of support is at $20K, which is only $1000 from $19K, which we anticipate to be the low. Dedicated readers will remember us calling out this level back in January. We don't seem to see much buying interest but if there is a pivot, $25.1K should provide resistance.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by quantguy
Stocks Obliterated as Inflation Data is Priced inStocks got slammed as investors in the APAC session price in soaring US CPI inflation data released on Friday, which came in at a 40 year high. The markets are also reevaluating the Fed's rate hike trajectory in light of these numbers . Barclay's anticipates a 75 bps hike now, and bond yields have soared. The S&P 500 has gotten crushed, slamming through all of our support levels in the 3800's and the 3900's. We have even breached the low established with the head of our inverse Head and Shoulders pattern from back in May, and dipped past relative lows from the end of May after the inverse H&S failed. We are currently hovering just above 3792. If we break this level, we will test lower levels in the 3700's starting with 3758. The Kovach OBV is on a solid bear decline but appears to be starting to level off, suggesting we may range a bit and find footing at current levels. We will meet strong resistance from relative lows at 3867 in the event that stocks pivot off current levels.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
3
Bond Yields Soar as APAC Prices in CPI and Fed's ReactionBonds have gotten slammed as yields have soared, smashing through several levels below when we've reported last, as the APAC session prices in CPI data from Friday. We smashed expectations for inflation and investors are rushing to price in the Fed's reaction. Barclays thinks that they will raise rates by 75 bps in order to counter these soaring numbers. We sliced through the 117's with ease and are finally finding support at the base of the 116 handle. We have projected another level of support at 115'29 using inverse Fibonacci extension levels since we've simply run out of support levels for the US ten year. The Kovach OBV is abysmally bearish, however we do appear to be finally leveling off a bit, so perhaps this level will hold. If not, expect resistance from 116'20.
CBOT:ZN1!Short
by quantguy
Ethereum SLAMMED!! 🤮 📉Ethereum sold off massively yesterday, and the bleeding has continued today. We have given up the range it was struggling to hold for the latter half of May and the beginning of June. It is difficult to say how low it can go at this point, as we have smashed through several key levels and are currently in the vacuum zone between $1547 and $1424. The lack of any buying interest is seriously concerning. After this, we have $1341 and $1235. After these levels we have to zoom out and appeal to Fibonacci levels anchored from highs, which suggest a major Fibonacci level is around $1000. Just two months ago this would seem outlandish but today it is a reality.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDShort
by quantguy
10
Litecoin Breaks DownLitecoin has finally broken down through the lower bound of the range it has been holding since the end of May. We saw strong support from $61.75, but this caved yesterday, and we have since broken into the vacuum zone between $55.84 and $61.75. We do appear to be seeing a bit of a bull divergence in the Kovach OBV, which appears to have picked up, but the rest of the market is looking fairly weak, so we don't foresee much strength come through, and even if we did, $61.75 should provide strong resistance and should be considered a hard upper bound for now. Our next target from below is $55.84.
BITSTAMP:LTCUSDShort
by quantguy
Ethereum Near LowsEthereum has found support in the low $1700's, and made an attempt for the $1900's eariler this week. But this rally was quickly faded and we are currently back to support just above our level at $1748. We are currently in a range between $1748 and $1821. The Kovach OBV has completely leveled off, so we anticipate that $1821 will continue to provide resistance. If not, we are sure to meet resistance in the $1900's. Stocks have sold off yesterday, which may portend a selloff in crypto as well. If so, expect support at $1695, the lower bound of the range we've been holding all month.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDShort
by quantguy
Bitcoin Hovers at $30KBitcoin has remained confined between $27.8K and $32.3K for just about the past month. Every rally seems to be swiftly batted down. Even within this range, volatility has consolidated immensely and we are hovering right about $30K, giving it up by a thread. The Kovach OBV is completely flat, however there was a selloff in stocks yesterday, and very thin trading in crypto, both of which are bearish signs. Expect support from $28.8K and $27.9K, then $25.1K should hold as an absolute floor for now in the worst case. Bitcoin is struggling to maintain $30K, and we must break through significant resistance around $31K and $32K before considering higher levels.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by quantguy
1
US Dollar Resumes RallyThe DXY has rallied breaking through resistance at 102.86, which remained a hard upper bound to the price range established this week. The US dollar is at multi-year highs against many other major world currencies such as the Yen and the Euro. We have smashed through 102.86, finding immediate resistance at 103.82, which was our next technical level after 102.86. Currently, we appear to be breaking out further, into the vacuum zone between 103.24 and 104.00. If momentum persists, we should be able to test 104's, otherwise, watch for support at 102.86, then 101.70.
TVC:DXYLong
by quantguy
Oil Extremely BullishWe have been reporting on the bullishness of oil, and called the bull wedge breakout from $120 to $122 perfectly. It was able to break out from this level perfectly, and has reached $122.95, our target level, to the tick before retracing just above $120, where it is currently finding support. After the breakout it is likely to range at currently levels, between $120 and $122.95, but we have nothing fundamental to suggest anything other than a purely technical retracement, if that. If so, we should find strong support at $116. Otherwise, $126.50 is the next target if we can break out again.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by quantguy
Stocks Finally Break DownStocks have finally broken out of the range they have been holding since the end of May. The S&P 500 has remained confined between 4068, the neckline of our failed inverse head and shoulders pattern, and 4214. The neckline of the inverse H&S is a strong technical level and the fact that we have broken down past it is not a good sign for stocks. We found support below after crossing the vacuum zone to 4009. This is the last technical level of the 4K's. After that, we have 3978. The Kovach OBV has turned bearish, but it is likely that we will range for now, establishing value at current levels. If we are able to rally, 4068 should provide strong resistance, and should be considered a price target for tnose looking to trade the range.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
2
Gold Valtility Consolidates FurtherGold continues to consolidate in the mid 1800's. We have met strong resistance from a cluster of levels beginning at 1851, with strong resistance from the upper most of these at 1865. Earlierthis month, 1876 proved to be a hard upper bound, and we expect this to hold as a ceiling even if more momentum comes through. From below 1836 and 1826 should hold as a floor for now. Volatility has consolidated notably, suggesting that we may continue to range and establish value in this broad price.
COMEX:GC1!
by quantguy
Bonds Stabilize at LowsBonds have found support just above our level at 117'19. We appear to be forming a bear wedge, but the Kovach OBV is flat, suggesting we may range at current levels. After the precipitous decline from 121'00, it is likely that we will establish value in a sideways correction or even a relief rally, before another selloff. If we break down further, then 117'08 is the next level where we should anticipate support. After that, there is a vacuum zone to 116'20. A relief rally could take us as high as 119'01.
CBOT:ZN1!
by quantguy
Litecoin LanguishesLitecoin continues to maintain the range, but is tending toward lower levels. The price has drifted down from highs at $66.94. A red triangle on the KRI has confirmed resistance here, and this is the level to break if we want to consider a proper bull rally. If so, there is a vacuum zone to our next target at $71.62. We have strong support from $61.75, confirmed by several green triangles on the KRI, but if support gives way, then there is a vacuum zone below to $55.84.
BITSTAMP:LTCUSDShort
by quantguy
Ethereum Tests $1800'sEthereum has leveled off in the $1800's after spending some time in the $1700's, with volatility consolidating immensely. We appear are seeing formidable resistance in the low $1800's, confirmed by several red triangles on the KRI. There does appear to be a bull divergence in the KRI, but we must break through $1906 before we can consider any rally to be significant. After that, we must be able to break $2K and hold it before getting our hopes up. If momentum fails to come through, watch the low $1700's for support. The level $1748 in particular appears to be providing good support lately.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDShort
by quantguy