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Kovach

Another Dump for Bitcoin??Bitcoin has picked up slightly, and has been able to barely sustain $30K. We are continuing a range between $28.8K and $31K. The Kovach OBV has flatlined, suggesting that this ranging will continue until we have more buying momentum come through either way. However, from experience, if there is such little buying interest as such bargain levels (respectively), then we are probably in for another dump. We should find support at $27.9K, but after that, there is a vacuum zone down to $25K. If we are able to break out then expect resistance at $32K then $34K.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by quantguy
6
DXY Rally Coming to an End?The US dollar index has found support at 102.86, the exact level we predicted. We have topped out at 104.83 and appeared to equilibrate in the high 103's for a bit, but support broke and we were able to test lower levels, as anticipated. We appear to be wavering at our level at 102.86, and if support does not hold, then we could collapse further through the vacuum zone to 101.70. We were due for a technical correction after the two week rally. If we pick up again, anticipate resistance from highs at 104.53 and 104.83.
TVC:DXYLong
by quantguy
Stocks Looking WeakAs predicted here, stocks have fallen from a failed inverse head and shoulders breakout. We were able to predict this due to the incredibly weak 'breakout' from the neckline at 4068. We also noted that this was a very bearish omen, and called out the exact level of support at the head of the inverse H&S at 3887 or so. Currently, we are seeing a bit of support here, but the brief rally is nothing compared to the magnitute of the previous selloff, and this is confirmed quantitatively by the Kovach OBV, which is still incredibly bearish. If we fall further, its uncharted territory, but we should have support at the base of the 3800's. If we somehow muster the strength for a rally, then we must break 4068 before testing higher levels, which is a barrier for now.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
2
Gold Recovers the $1800'sGold has found support from the upper $1700's, and made a run for the mid $1800's. We smashed through the upper bound of a previous value area at $1815, then passed through several levels after that to reach $1851, which we identified in these reports as a target. We expected resistance here, since this level is a relative low from earlier in May. We are indeed seeing resistance here confirmed by a red triangle on the KRI. If we are able to break through, then we will see resistance from several technical levels up to $1876, then there is a vacuum zone to $1895. If we fall from here, $1836 and $1826 should provide support with $1815 a likely floor for now.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by quantguy
Bonds Pick UpBonds have found support and made a run for higher levels. The ten year dipped 119'23 into the 118's, finding support just above our level at 118'04. We then saw a rebound to 120'14, which we have been identifying as the next target after 119'23. It will take some momentum to break this level however, since this is a relative high from back in April. We are already seeing steep resistance here confirmed by a red triangle on the KRI. The Kovach OBV is gradually trending up, but is a oscillating with the dips, suggesting we need to see more momentum to come through to sustain the rally. If we selloff further, then we should see support at 119'01 then 118'04.
CBOT:ZN1!
by quantguy
Bitcoin Looking Weak...Bitcoin has found resistance at $30K and given up entirely, finding comfort in the $29K's. The price action is rounding off, suggesting another dump may be in store for us. We have good support at $28.8K, then $27.9K if that breaks. Then there is a vacuum zone down to $25K, the relative low from the previous dump. If we are somehow able to gain momentum, then $30K will likely provide prohibitive resistance, then we will have more from $32K, then $34K which should be considered a ceiling for now.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by quantguy
2
DXY Maintains Sidewas CorrectionThe US dollar has retraced from highs, but appears to be continuing a broad sideways correction. We have added two new technical levels at 103.24 and 104.00, the latter being a psychological level as well. We are currently seeing good support from 103.29, confirmed by a green triangle on the KRI, but if that does not hold, then 102.86 should hold. After that, we have a vacuum zone down to 101.70. If we find support and catch more momentum, then we should run into resistance again in the 104's.
TVC:DXY
by quantguy
Stocks Break Down HARD from Failed Inverse Head and Shoulders!!As predicted yesterday, stocks broke down hard. Recall that we observed that the breakout from the inverse head and shoulders pattern in the S&P 500 was looking extremely weak. This is usually a very bad sign and portends a dramatic failure. Indeed, we note only rejected current levels but completely retraced the entire pattern, currently finding support at 3887, the head of the pattern. We can expect support here, but if it does not hold, we are set to make new relative lows which is a very ominious sign. The neckline at 4068 is likely to be a prohibitive upper bound for some time, as is usually the case with failed H&S patterns.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
Ethereum Ready to Breakout??Ethereum has been consolidating notably, since it caught a burst of momentum from lows. We saw immediate resistance around $2200 and $2100 confirmed by multiple red triangles on the KRI. We mentioned that we could be forming a bull wedge pattern or a flag pattern, and the fact that volatility has consolidated so considerably portends a breakout soon either way. If we are able to break out then we must first clear $2200 in order to work our way back up to $2402, where we will surely see some resistance from previous lows. If reject current levels and press lower, then we should see support from the $1900's with a floor in the mid $1700's.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDShort
by quantguy
Bitcoin Breakout Near??Bitcoin is maintaining a very narrow range just under $30K. Volatility has consolidated considerably, with lows edging up from $27K to $29K. We identified a bull wedge pattern with upper bound at $30K or so for the past few reports. This could suggest that Bitcoin is read for a breakout, but we have signficant resistance confirmed by multiple red triangles on the KRI at $30K and $31K. If we are able to breakout, $32.3K is our next target, then we are sure to have resistance in the $34K's. If we break down, then $27.9K is sure to provide support, but after that there is a vacuum zone down to $25K.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by quantguy
Stocks Struggle to Continue the RallyThe S&P 500 had a very humble breakout from the inverse head and shoulders pattern we identified yesterday. Recall that we noted an inverse H&S pattern with a neckline at 4068. We suggested that if it broke out from this, we could easily test the 4100's. We did see a bit of a bounce past 4068, but nowhere near the momentum we'd expect from a breakout. Indeed, we weren't able to even clear 4100 before running into resistance. Though the Kovach OBV has tapered up slightly, this is nowhere near the momentum we'd like to see off a proper breakout. If we reject the breakout it is a very bearish sign indeed. We could easily retrace through the vacuum zone to 4009, or even test the 3K's again. If we are able to break out, then 4122 and 4144 are the first targets we will have to break before considering higher levels.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
2
Gold Returns to a Value AreaGold has rejected $1836, and has made its back down to the value area we identified earlier. Recall that $1795 to $1815 was a range held by gold in the past. We suggested that if it did not have the strength to break out into the upper $1800's or the $1900's, it was likely to return to this range. After rejecting $1836, we fell straight through $1826, and broke through $1815, currnetly finding support somewhere in the middle of our expected range. We should have further support from $1795, but if not, there will be further support in the $1780's. We anticipate $1851 to hold as a ceiling if we catch another burst of momentum.
COMEX:GC1!
by quantguy
Can Ethereum Breakout??Ethereum has found support and is forming a consolidation pattern in the low $2K handle. We are seeing potentially a bull wedge pattern forming with an upper bound around $2143. The Kovach ObV is picking up, so there is the potential for a breakout to take us back to the $2200's or so. If we are able to solidify this, the next major target is $2402. We are seeing strong resistance above from red triangles on the KRI. If we reject current levels then $2K will provide support with an ultimate floor in the mid $1700's.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDLong
by quantguy
Bitcoin Holds the $30K'sBitcoin has found stability in the upper $29K handle. It has just now been able to recover $30K and is hanging onto this level by a thread. We do appear to be seeing a bull wedge forming and the Kovach OBV has been steadily climing, suggesting a breakout may be near, especially if we see a rally in stocks today. If we do breakout, then $32K is the first level to break before considering further resistance in the $34K's. If we retrace, we will have strong support from $27K and $28K.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by quantguy
Inverse Head and Shoulders in Stocks?? 📈🤑Stocks appear to be forming the inverse head and shoulders pattern that we predicted would form yesterday. The "head" of the pattern extends down to the low 3900's with the neckline at 4068. We are seeing resistance from 4068 confirmed by several red triangles on the KRI, but if we are able to break out from here, then the 4100's are reasonable, in particular 4122 and 4144. The Kovach OBV is still very bearish and has flatlined suggesting we will need more momentum to come through, perhaps at the US open, before we can expect a breakout.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
Can Litecoin Clear the $70's??Litecoin has recovered from lows around $55, and made a run back to the $70's. We have rejected $73.62 twice confirmed by two red triangles on the KRI. The Kovach OBV has drifted up, but still has a way to go before being considered properly 'bullish'. We must break $73 and $77 before considering higher levels. If we are able to do this, then $85.08 is the next target. We are currently hanging onto $66.94 for support, and if we press further down, then there is a vacuum zone back down to $55.84 where we should see support once more.
BITSTAMP:LTCUSDLong
by quantguy
Ethereum Regains $2K!!Ethereum has been inching up after it tested lows in the $1700's. We noted that the $1700's should hold strong as this corresponds to a significant Fibonacci level on the daily charts. After stabilizing here, we made an immediate run back to $2000 where we are currently finding resistance at $2100 or so. In particular $2143 has thwarted two attempts at higher levels and appears to be a relative high in a bull wedge formation. If we break out from here, we should see further resistance in the $2200-$2300 range. If we reject current levels we should see support from $1800-$1900 with a floor at lows around $1700.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDLong
by quantguy