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Kovach

Gold Tests the Lows of the RangeGold tested lows again at $1851, exactly as we discussed. Recall that we anticipated it would fall to this exact level yesterday, here in these reports, as it was likely to feel out the new range it is establishing. We made a run for higher levels, but $1905 provided prohibitive resistance and we sought lows again subsequently. We are getting support from $1851, and if we see a bounce, we may feel out the range again, with $1876 a likely intermediary target. If we break down, there is a vacuum zone to $1836.
COMEX:GC1!
by quantguy
Can Litecoin Break the $90's?? 😰Litecoin has smashed through lows. Two levels in the $90's did little to stop the fallout. We cut through $94.84 and $92.62 with ease. We currently appear to be finding support at $90, which is a psychological level. However, there is a vacuum zone down to $85.08. The Kovach OBV is very bearish, which usually would indicate oversold conditions and portend a pivot, however we are not seeing much buying interest at the moment. A relief rally could test the aforementioned levels in the $90's, but we feel that the $100's are too ambitious at this point.
BITSTAMP:LTCUSDShort
by quantguy
1
Ethereum Digs Deeper into the $2000'sEthereum has smashed through several support levels over the weekend. We fell through $2556, and subsequently gave up the $2500's entirely. We are testing the next level down at $2454 at the time of this writing. We do appear to be seeing support from this level, but there is a lack of a pivot which suggests the market does not find current prices enticing enough and we could see lower prices. If so, $2402 is the next target. If that level fails, then we have two vacuum zones underneath it to $2324 then $2232.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDShort
by quantguy
3
Bitcoin Breaks Key Level!! 📉😱Bitcoin has blasted through support at $34.9K, which we expected to put up a bit more of a fight as it is a major Fibonacci level on the daily. This is certainly a very bad sign for BTC, which careened through several levels below on the weekend. We will be putting out a longer term analysis on the daily chart later. But for now, we have broken $34K and are in a vacuum zone between this and $32.3K. The Kovach OBV is abysmally bearish, but we are starting to see some green triangles on the KRI suggesting perhaps the bleeding might stop soon, even if it's just a relief rally.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by quantguy
2
A Bearish Start to the Trading Week for Stocks 🐻📉Stocks sold off sharply at the beginning of the APAC session, which is not a good omen for the upcoming week. We are back at relative lows again at 4068 and appear to be looking to test lower. A small wick has broken through this level, and we are not seeing any hints of a buy-back from these lows. The Kovach OBV does appear to be diverging from the price, but it would be highly risky to catch this knife now. If we continue to fall, we have a vacuum zone to 4009, which is the last technical level in the 4000's. If we do bounce from current levels, then 4122 and 4144 will provide resistance.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
Litecoin Testing LowsLitecoin rejected $105, as we anticipated here. We plunged through support at $101, and gave up the $100 handle entirely with ease. Currently, we are seeing support from $94.84, but are not seeing much of a pivot. The last time we tested this level we saw a nice bounce back to the $100's. The Kovach OBV has slumped and is looking pretty bearish. If we are able to pivot from current levels, $100 should provide resistance for now. If we break down further, then $92.62 is the last level in the $90's to provide support, then there is a vacuum zone down to $85.05.
BITSTAMP:LTCUSDShort
by quantguy
Ethereum Breaks Major Support!!Ethereum broke down after rejecting $2965, the last level in the $2K's. It looked like ETH was considering another run for $3K, but this was swiftly rejected, and we subsequently sliced through several support levels below. Currently, we are hovering under $2762, which is providing strong resistance. The lack of a buyback from new relative lows is concerning and suggests we are far from 'max pain' just yet. From below, $2651 and $2595 are the next targets. If we are able to see some momentum, we must first break $2762 before considering higher levels, but $3K remains a hard upper bound for now.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDShort
by quantguy
Bitcoin Nears Major Fib LevelBitcoin got a lift from the FOMC statement Wednesday, but this was just a fool's rally. As we predicted here, $40K proved to be a significant barrier and we rejected this level immediately, selling off sharply and smashing through relative lows at $37.7K which previously held strong. We saw a double bottom at this level and the fact that we were able to cut through it so easily with the selloff is not a good sign for Bitcoin. We are currently finding support just above the next level at $34.9K. We should stress that this level is quite significant as it is a major Fibonacci level on the daily chart. If we are able to break through, then the next Fibonacci level is at $29K. If we are able to pivot off current levels, then we must first break through $36.7K then $37.7K, before we can consider $40K again.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by quantguy
Oil Breaks HigherOil has been edging up, first breaking through $106, then $108. The latter has consistently been an upper bound for oil, but just yesterday it was finally able to crack this level. We broke out but topped off at $111 or so, just under our next target at $113. We are registering resistance confirmed by red triangles on the KRI. However the Kovach OBV appears very strong, and oil seems to be holding its ground above $108, which should provide support. If not, we have $106 just below, then there is a vacuum zone down to $101. There is no reason to expect that we won't hold the $100's. Another burst of momentum could take us back to $113, then relative highs at $116.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by quantguy
Stocks Cling to SupportAs we anticipated here, stocks could do little to break 4306, which provided prohibitive resistance. The S&P 500 swiftly rejected this level and retraced almost the entire move from the pivot from 4068. We did find support at 4122, a level which dedicated readers will recognize well, confirmed by two green triangles on the KRI. However, we seem to be seeing a bear flag type pattern forming at this level, and if support gives, then 4068 is the next target. Watch the vacuum zone down to 4009, which is the last technical level in the 4000's. If we somehow muster a rally, we must first break through 4306 before we can consider higher levels.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
Gold Establishes a RangeWe have seen a lot of volatility in gold this month. It fell from $1917 down to support at $1851, from which we saw a pivot and subsequent run back to $1917. however, momentum petered out at $1905, the level below and we retraced almost the entire range. We are currently seeing suport at $1865, confirmed by a green triangle on the KRI. The Kovach OBV has oscillated with the volatility and seems to be bottoming out at the moment. From here we should remain range bound between $1851 and and $1917, and perhaps volatility will consolidate further. Watch for gold to establish value between $1865 and $1895.
COMEX:GC1!
by quantguy
The Bond Selloff ResumesAs anticipated the bond rout continues. We saw a brief relief rally after the FOMC, as the hikes were largely priced in. However, 119'01 provided prohibitive resistance, and ZN immediately rejected it. We found brief support at 118'04, but have broken through this level, and are currently clinging onto 118'00 by a thread. The next target is the level below at 117'19. The Kovach OBV is extremely oversold, so watch for a relief rally, which could test 119'01 again.
CBOT:ZN1!Short
by quantguy
Small Rally in Litecoin Faces ResistanceLitecoin got a much needed lift with the crypto market. It was finally able to break through $101, which was a barrier for the past few days. We reached $105, which we have been touting as teh next price target for some time. However, this level appears to be providing resistance, and we are currently witnessing a bit of a retracemnet. The Kovach OBV has barely moved off this rally, suggesting that we need a lot more momentum to come through before we can reach higher levels, but if so, $109 is the next target. If we reject $105, then we should get support at $101, but after that watch the vacuum zone to $95.84.
BITSTAMP:LTCUSDShort
by quantguy
Ethereum Still Bound by $3KEthereum caught a lift with the rest of the crypto market. We were able to reach $2965, which is currently providing resistance as confirmed by a red triangle on the KRI. The Kovach OBV has picked up slightly but at the moment, momentum has stalled and we will need a lot more to break through $3K. If so, $3042 is the first level in the $3K's to provide resistance. If not, we could feel out the range between $2762 and $2965 with $2765 likely to hold as a floor price for now.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDShort
by quantguy
8
Bitcoin Tests $40K!!Bitcoin had a small relief rally from lows at $37.7K as we anticipated yesterday. We weren't expecting anything big, but the double bottom at lows and sold off conditions predicted a small bounce. The rally in stocks helped as well. Currently, we are facing resistance from $40K, confirmed by a red triangle on the KRI. We expect resistance here, but if we are able to break through we will surely face more resistance at $42K, which is likely a barrier for now. If we reject $40K, then we could feel out the range between $40K and $37.7K, the latter likely to hold as a floor price for now.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by quantguy
The DXY Retraces!!The US dollar has fallen off the FOMC report yesterday. Despite the 0.5% rate hike, the dollar fell as this was largely priced in already. We collapsed through support at 102.86, but found support at 102.33 or so. We are feeling out the vacuum zone between 102.86 and 101.70, which is fairly wide, so we could potentially form some new technical levels here. It might be difficult for the DXY to break 102.86 again, but if we do, then we must break highs around 104.00 before we can consider our next target at 104.53. We should see support at 101.70 and this should be considered a floor price for now.
TVC:DXY
by quantguy
What the FOMC Means for StocksStocks rallied despite a Fed hike of 0.5%, the largest hike since 2008. The economic conditions between that time period and now are similar, so keep that in mind for long term investing. We anticipated a rally yesterday, as the hike was fully priced in. Exactly as we predicted yesterday, the S&P 500 is seeing resistance from a relative high at 4306. The Kovach OBV has jumped with the rally, but is leveling off at current levels. We will see if we can muster the strength for another rally. If so, 4364 should provide resistance as it is a relative low. We should have support around 4188, roughly the midpoint of the current range, but if we fall further, we could test lows at 4122 or 4068 as an absolute min. Recall that if we break 4068, there is a vacuum zone to 4009, at the base of the 4K handle.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
1
Can Ethereum Test $3K Again?Ethereum found good support again from $2762, but $2852 remains a barrier. Many red triangles on the KRI confirm that Ethereum is having issues breaking this level. The Kovach OBV is bearish and tapering down, so we will need a lot more buying momentum to come through to even consider breaking this level. However, the bear rout has been persistent and we are due for a relief rally. If so, we should find strong resistance at $2965, and $3K. If we fall further, then $2651 should provide support.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDLong
by quantguy
Bitcoin Due for a Rally??Bitcoin found great support again from $37.7K as we predicted here. We appear to be seeing a double bottom at this level, which is encouraging, however we simply aren't seeing the buyback that bulls would like. The Kovach OBV is still very bearish, though it has picked up ever so slightly with the pivot from lows. As mentioned here, $40K is still a barrier, and we have not even been able to break $39.2K, the last level in the $30K's. Bitcoin seems to waiting for the stock market to find conviction, which hinges on the results of the FOMC meeting this afternoon. If we rally and are able to break $40K then we should see resistance around $42K. If we fall further, $37.7K should provide support. If we break that, then $36.7K is the next level down.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by quantguy
3
Stocks Await the FOMCAfter pivoting off new relative lows at 4068, stocks were able to maintain the 4180's. We are seeing strong resistance here confirmed by red triangles on the KRI. We have two levels at 4178 and 4188 that are proving difficult for stocks to break through. The stock market is clearly looking for guidance from the Fed at 14:30 EST, so we do not expect much action before then. There is a lot of uncertainty in the markets and this may provide much needed clarity. If we see a rally, then 4306 would be the target to the upside and should provide resistance. If we selloff again, then lows at 4068 should provide support. However, keep in mind there is a vacuum zone to 4009, which is the final technical level in the 4000's.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
1