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Kovachtrader

Continued fall of the dollar index DXY. H4 30.09.2024Continued fall of the dollar index DXY The dollar index is moving downwards without changes. There was an attempt to trade, above which it was not allowed to consolidate and eventually fell. I showed this in the last analysis and now I am aiming at the support levels around 99.20. Perhaps they will just make a false update of the low and come back, it is not known in advance, but at the moment we are trading near the visible support and so far without an upward reaction. Therefore, 99.20 is the next strongest level in recent years and it is ideal to test it before a reversal. TVC:DXY
TVC:DXYShort
by KovachTrader
The USDJPY correction is coming to an end H4 26.09.2024The USDJPY correction is coming to an end The yen is now forming a correction and the price has hit the marginal resistance zone around 145. From it I expect a bounce down to test the lower boundaries. Also, there was a rotation in the area of the zone in the past and periodically rebounds were made. Therefore, there is a probability that this time they will be able to bounce down at least locally. I don't see the options falling further than 139, but I aim for 140 approximately. OANDA:USDJPY
Short
by KovachTrader
2
Important update WTI. H4 26.09.2024WTI Important update Past WTI oil buys didn't manage to get fully developed and the overall correction ended near the nearest resistance at 72.00. On the downside, large volume was poured at 69.65 and eventually gave a push to the downside, thus forming a sellers zone. I believe the overall upward correction is over and will break the lower boundary with downside potential to 64.50 to the block option spread. Then we will watch the culmination below if given, but for now selling is the priority. BLACKBULL:WTI
BLACKBULL:WTIShort
by KovachTrader
USDCHF is stuck in flat. H4 25.09.2024USDCHF is stuck in flat On the franc since last week sat in buys, but the growth did not get. The movement in flat with testing of borders continues. Ideally, we would like to see the lower boundary down to the area 0.8300-0.8340 and then the beginning of growth. However, there is a local support of the lower boundary and 1/2 margin at 0.8400 on the way. Let's see how we will pass it and if it will pass. On options we are trading in the oversold zone. I closed the previous buys in a small plus and I will look for a new re-entry if clear volume conditions are given.
Long
by KovachTrader
Completion of the correction of the dollar index DXY.H4 13.09.24Completion of the correction of the dollar index DXY The dollar index has completed its upward correction and now we are waiting for a downside downdraft on the Fed on the 18th of September. In fact, the currency futures expiration has now passed and the gap that you see in the quotes is caused by a large divergence of forward point, that is a purely technical picture. Some suppliers may have different quotes by the numbers. From current levels +- I expect a correction up again and a continuation of the fall after Powell's speech on Wednesday 18 September. I do not set targets at the low yet, I will be looking at it in the process
TVC:DXYShort
by KovachTrader
1
Silver Analysis. H4 12.09.2024Silver Analysis. H4 12.09.2024 An interesting situation is fprming in silver. I haven't reviewed it for a while, but a cool pattern is forming now. The price is forming an exit to the upper boundary of the range and fixing near the margin. On the way we made accumulation and buyers' zone 28.50-28.85 in case of correction to which we can buy with targets to renew the highs. The main volumes remained at the bottom and will be a support for the price.
CAPITALCOM:SILVERLong
by KovachTrader
Thoughts on EURUSD before the ECB rate. H4 12.09.2024Thoughts on EURUSD before the ECB rate I expect the euro to reach 1.0950-1.10 down to the area of option hedges and profile accumulation, and then continue to grow. Of course, there may be surprises, but this is my prior view. In detail we need to keep an eye on the new option fillings, they will tell us which areas will be hedged. The market is expecting a 0.25% rate cut, but the main movement will be given at the press conference on further ECB monetary policy plans. My subscribers and I closed our sales in the private channel yesterday.
Short
by KovachTrader
Beginning of AUDUSD workout. H4 03.09.2024Beginning of AUDUSD workout Yesterday in the closed channel I recommended subscribers to look for sales of the Australian dollar from the strong zone 0.6790-0.6816 with the perspective of corrective fall to 0.6640+- The price gave a reaction in the morning and I believe that the push down will continue. It remains to cover a major growth candle and then I will increase sales. It is also desirable that the cumulative starts to grow on the fall, they often get after that. Already right now, even at 0.1 lot almost returned the cost of a monthly subscription
Short
by KovachTrader
Waiting for USDCHF to rise. H4 10.09.2024Waiting for USDCHF to rise The franc got a beautiful culmination on Friday with a false takeout of the support level around 0.84. The price gave an upward reaction and overlapped the culmination candle. Usually in such cases make an internal pullback and upside as shown in the scheme. We bought in a private channel at 0.8410 and also wrote about it immediately, as I bought it myself. According to the options, we will continue to grow to the area of 0.8750 with intermediate fixation near 0.8600. On options, we are still in a strong oversold zone, so the upside potential on the near-term contracts is pretty good as well.
Long
by KovachTrader
Working off the rise in the dollar index DXY. H4 09.09.2024Working off the rise in the dollar index DXY Last week I expected the dollar index to rise to the area of 102 and higher. We made a pullback on it, but the depth of the correction was bigger than initially expected, but it did not affect the result. Now they are making a rebound to 102, but then might correction around 102.30. On Thursday we will know the US inflation for August and the unemployment rate on Friday. On this news the main movements on the dollar will be made.
TVC:DXYLong
by KovachTrader
Waiting for WTI rebound. H4 30.08.2024 Waiting for WTI rebound Oil WTI has been flattening with pullbacks all week, which is exhausting. My top-up was knocked out together with the rest of the last buy. Although the total plus came out due to partial fixation. Now the price is back to the key support area, it went down to the buyers' zone 73.34-72.63 and near the specified 1/2 margin. There are no large volumes, which is confusing, but they can make a buyback. Therefore, you should look here for confirmations on your strategy. If pushed the zones below, then the price will go to 71.
THINKMARKETS:WTILong
by KovachTrader
Ambiguous situation Gold. H4 28.08.2024Ambiguous situation Gold There is an ambiguous situation on gold. We are trading close to the nearest buyers' zone, but there are no volumes of buybacks and on the contrary bids are pushing down. Can go up to 1/2 margin, and from there make a rebound. That is why I will be out of the market on gold until the situation becomes clearer. If they can completely cover the segment down with fixing under 2470, then we will get repositioning downwards and look for sales from the pullback. But we have not done it yet, the priority is to work on the bullish trend.
CAPITALCOM:GOLDLong
by KovachTrader
Will there be a false breakdown WTI ? H4 20.08.2024Will there be a false breakdown WTI ? H4 20.08.2024 Oil is in an interesting situation right now. Initially I was waiting for repositioning to buy, however the price went lower. As a result, I closed my purchases on be and now the question is whether or not there will be a false breakdown of the support zone 71.30-72.40. The poured volume in the margin at 73.50 did not give a buyback reaction, but oil moves very insidiously. It could do a false breakdown and then come back on volumes and form a delayed culmination. In any case, the rebound is somewhere near, so watch carefully.
THINKMARKETS:WTILong
by KovachTrader
Possible correction WTI. H4 27.08.2024Possible correction WTI Oil has now approached the marginal resistance zone 77.41-77.97, as shown in the previous analysis. Large point volumes have appeared in the zone and may mean fixation of purchases and the beginning of accumulation of corrective sales. The question is whether the pullback will be and how deep it will be. In general, I expect an approach around 1/2 of the margin and then up again from there. That's why yesterday at 77.40 I closed 50% of buys and I'm still in the waiting mode. Oil after filling volumes likes to make gains and then go into a reversal.
THINKMARKETS:WTILong
by KovachTrader
Rebound EURUSD before the start of correction H4. 22.08.2024Rebound EURUSD before the start of correction On the Euro I expect a rebound to the area of 1.1170 and the start of correction there. The rebound was made, but the nuance is that the cumulative continues to fall, which means that they can still make an outburst to fill the culmination volumes. Without them they are unlikely to make a downward reversal. They may reach 1.12, where there is also a strong option resistance, and then down. In any case, I will not enter without confirmation of volumes and I advise you to wait for the conditions.
Long
by KovachTrader
1