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KRE

$KRE massive H&S top?Thanks to @TORNADOF5 for reminding me about this. A friend sent me a tweet last night about how banks are levered up on debt and that prompted me to look at the chart of KRE. As you might remember, AMEX:KRE was one of the worst performing ETFs at the beginning of this year with the failure of a ton of local banks. But since earlier this year, I haven't heard much talk about banks being in trouble. Well I pulled up the chart, I was surprised to see a massive H&S top forming. If price breaks $37-38, then I could see a big move down. The first target would be $29 and if price gets under that, it could get really bad. Could see price making it all the way to the lower support levels. Let's keep an eye on this because it'll be a great trade should it play out.
AMEX:KREShort
by benjihyam
3
Opening (IRA): KRE Sept 20th 42 Covered Call... for a 40.73 debit. Comments: Adding to my KRE (IVR/IV 50.4/28.6) position with a setup out in the September monthly that has a break even better than what I currently have on. Selling the -75 delta call against a one lot to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put with the built-in defense of the short call. Additionally, attempting to grab a little more June divvy if I can, with ex-dividend not having been declared yet. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 40.73 Max Profit: 1.27 ($127) ROC at Max: 3.12% 50% Max: .64 ROC at 50% Max: 1.56%
AMEX:KRELong
by NaughtyPines
US Bank about to implode! Regional Banking is gonna take a hit!First you have the FDIC come out and say no matter what we can whether a large US Bank failure - out of nowhere! Japan is stuck in a corner, can't sell bonds to defend its currency, and can't raise rates enough. Like every Central Bank they're stuck. So now a large US bank will be "allowed" to fail that will give Powell the excuse to cut rates - leading to a large reinflation boost (precious metals). Biden even hinted at rates coming down in July so this regional bank implosion has to happen soon. I don't see banking in the USA doing good long term because the banking structure needs to be consolidated to isolate and do away with cash so they can bring out CBDC's. At that point banks will be "stakeholders" which is fancy speak for fascist government control over corporations, but from an international level. Also, TTM Squeeze indicator is loaded on every TF except Monthly, which showed that it already went off and is gathering steam for the next leg down in the breakout, but a very powerful move since this is signaling on the weekly chart.
AMEX:KREShort
by EmptyEternity
1
Opening (IRA): KRE August 19th 44 Monied Covered Call... for a 42.98 debit. Comments: Hitting a little KRE (IVR/IV 42/28) on weakness here, looking primarily to grab the June dividend (March distribution: .38; 3.19% annualized). Selling the -75 call against a one lot to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put with the built-in defense of the short call. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 42.98 Max Profit: 1.02 ($102) ex. dividend ROC at Max: 2.37% 50% Max: .51 ($51) ex. dividend ROC at 50% Max: 1.19% Will primarily look to take profit at 50% max, roll out the short call on test ... .
AMEX:KRELong
by NaughtyPines
KRE: Regional Bank Collapse?Financials have been demonstrating some interesting price action. We believe financials in the near term could be in for some choppy negative price action. With yields now sitting at support during the recent selloff, banks haven't done all that well. Were now at a point in the inflation fight where we could experience an upside move in inflation. We just witnessed today the Canadian CPI came in much hotter. To make matters worse, were at a time when central banks like the ECB, BOC, PBOC, BOJ are all loosening policy. However this very laxy=daisy policy is what caused Oil to bottom on June 4th. Oil has since moved up 13% in 2.5 weeks. This will likely cause yields to have upward pressure since its inflationary to the economy. If the US CPI comes in hotter expect no 2024 rate cut...banks would hate that. Im eyeing the head and shoulders breakdown.
AMEX:KRE
by Trading-Capital
NYCB Community Bank falls to support and rises LONGOn the 15 minute chart the price action reflects the rough time that NYCB has had. Apparently it had a good rally to finish the week due to reports of floods of new deposits . Down the road it may be a problem if premium interest is being paid on the deposits. In the meanwhile, I see NYCB as taking back half of the trend down and floating up gradually into the range of 7 or about 60% upside. This will be a volatile and risky trade but with good upside. I will set a 8% or ATR x 2 stop loss yielding a Reward to risk of about 7.
NLong
by AwesomeAvani
Opened: KRE March 15th 39/44/50/55 Iron Condor... for a 1.68 credit. Comments: ETF IV > 35% with 30-day IV at 37.9%. Collecting 1/3rd the width of the wings of a 5-wide; 1.68 credit on BPE of 3.32; 50.6% ROC at max; 25.3% at 50% max. It was kind of a toss-up between doing this as an iron fly or as an iron condor due to the size of the underlying, so compromised, going in somewhat aggressively with the short option legs (they're camped out at the 30 delta). This will allow me to adjust the setup somewhat before having to go inverted with the short strangle aspect (now I've jinxed it). Will generally look to take profit at 50% max; adjust sides on side test.
AMEX:KRE
by NaughtyPines
KBE - S %& P Small Bank ETF LONGKBE is an unleveraged bank ETF which on the 60 minute chart is currently trending with a buy signal from the machine learning algo indicator. Banks are reporting. Interest rate changes by the fed are flat for the time being. The volume profile shows KBE took a dip to try to fall back into the high-volume area and bounced. It has recovered from a VWAP band breakdown correcting from the 3rd upper band to the first upper band. The dual time RSI indicator shows the faster RSI line crossing over the slower RSI line and both in the healthy 60 range. I see this as a buying opportunity on KBE and will also take a look at DPST. I see price as targeting the February 23 high about 20% upside.
AMEX:KBELong
by AwesomeAvani
Bearish potential detected for KRELooking at KRE during the final hour of trade this morning on the US markets, KRE represents a potential bearish opportunity should momentum continue and lower highs and lower lows be made past the current position, considering breach of recent support levels aligning with technical indicators of RSI and DMI. Personal stop loss for the trade would be the high of the recent swing on 17-Oct (i.e.: above the high of $42.92) and will track the declining 30 day moving average as the trade continues.
AMEX:KREShort
by Ivory_Wolf
Regional Banks Are Still in Serious Trouble!Traders, For the second time this year, regional banks are threatening to cross on over an essential support that has carried us through this secular bull market for 14 (going on 15) years! If our support breaks, I fear that regional banks could drag everything else down with it. Remember, it is regional banks that hold the loans for much of commercial real estate. Much of commercial real estate went vacant during COVID. We are only now beginning to understand the wave of bankruptcies that are crashing in hard as a result! Watch this line closely or stay tuned here and I will keep you up to speed as I observe any significant changes. Stewdamus
AMEX:KREShort
by stewdamus
Bank of America: Ascending Broadening Wedge Below S/R ZoneBank of America has confirmed the MA's and S/R zone as Resistance within an Ascending Broadening Wedge just as PACW did not so long ago, and now more interest is building at lower levels, which could suggest that BAC will be breaking down from this wedge very soon, and the measured move would take it all the way down to about $2, though we could see it try to hold $17 before that. This is a little bit of an update to the BAC and PACW fractal listed in the related ideas tab, this time more focused on BAC as a whole.
NYSE:BACShort
by RizeSenpai
KRE ETF – are banking risks resurfacing? While the Fed’s Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) has been a key factor in supporting bank equity, the rapid rise in US Treasury bond yields is a concern, and so is the exposure to Commercial Real Estate (CRE). We can see CRE benchmarks rolling over of late and heading lower and this is keeping investors from buying into regionals. One for the radar, but if we see the price continue in the current trajectory then it could see signs of greater risk aversion kicking into markets. Staying in the ETF scene, I am also watching the HYG ETF (iShares High Yield Corp ETF) given we see that falling sharply but seeing some extremely oversold reads.
AMEX:KREShort
by Pepperstone
XLF - Looking Very WeakFinancials charts have completely been rejected by the downscoping trend line. A weekly bear flag looks like it's about to trigger and send price action much lower. Since the daily chart is getting oversold, waiting for bearish consolidation is a wise decision if you are wanting to short. With the rise in yields recently, it's clear the Banks net interest margins are being squeezed. Will we see another banking crisis? The last time we saw the XLF close below the weekly 50MA, we saw a quick 10% drop.
AMEX:XLF
by Trading-Capital
1
Goldman Sachs - Are Banks The Next Dumpster?Goldman Sachs is another one of those stocks that's traded like a can of dog food for a very long period of time that the masses are really drawn to, much like Target, Disney, and Paypal, of which you can find calls for that I've made in the linked section below. GS is relatively significant in that it's one of the 30 components of the Dow, which is one of the big three indexes. The Dow had previously been the leader in strength, and for a long time, but in the last several weeks has become the leader in weakness. Although it looks like a minor blip on the radar, I feel it's something of a harbinger of doom. And the problem for Goldman Sachs can be seen clearly on the monthly: Clearly insofar that the bounce from the 2018 high should have lead to new highs. Instead, the distribution block from the market highs served as resistance. 14 months later, it took out July's low and we can now safely theorize that lower prices are in order. Weekly bars show us that a failure swing has formed and July's price action was just a local stop raid. So, what could a catalyst be? Arguably, there doesn't need to be a catalyst. It's just that JP Morgan is long 15,800 puts with a strike of SPX 4,225 expiring September 29 that have never been in the money since they were purchased at the end of Q2. And so when one index falls, all indexes falls, and the arbitrage algorithms naturally take component stocks down with them. There's also the economic disaster China under Xi Jinping and his Chinese Communist Party are facing. When you have a disaster hit the world's "Central Kingdom," nobody is an island and those macro equity flows will cause significant turmoil in other markets. For the U.S. market makers, this simply represents an opportunity to kill longs, buy everyone's losses at the bottom, and rip it back to new highs while you short sell and chase the entire way because Reddit and Discord and Xeeeeeter told you to. But "the best laid plans of mice and men often go awry." What looms over the head of humanity is the CCP's 24-year persecution of Falun Dafa's 100 million practitioners in Mainland China, which was launched by former Chairman Jiang Zemin on July 20, 1999. Although Jiang is dead now, the persecution still continues. Xi hasn't been a part of the persecution. Xi, to the contrary, has been killing the participants of the persecution in his "Anti-Corruption Campaign." But much of the world has gone to Shanghai to do business with the Jiang Faction and that requires swearing vows to the Red Cult's Flag of Blood and leaving collateral. This is going to be a roadblock to the future for the U.S. "systemically important banks" that cannot be passed, and the impact is going to be significant. So, here's the trade on Goldman Sachs. The target the algorithm is set up to pursue is definitely $275. Shorting from $320 actually really isn't that bad. Getting $45 on a put will do rather well for you even if you can only afford one. Although optimal entry was definitely the $350s. But the truth is that you aren't likely to be able to long $274 profitably. I'd say the first place you can look for a reversal or a meaningful bounce is $223. Humans won't believe it until they see it. But once you see it, it's too late. It only counts if you do something for yourself while the cards are still face down. Just like poker, the river is coming, and there won't be any "running it twice."
NYSE:GSShort
by LordWrymouth
BNKU- Triple Leveraged Bank Sector LONGOn the hourly chart, BNKU fell from a head and shoulders in late July , crossed under VWAP lines in a VWAP breakdown and pullback before an inverse head and shoulders type reversal now underway. The zero-lag MACD is confirmatory. I will take a long trade here. Projected stop loss and targets ( TP1-40% TP2 40% and T3 20%) are on the chart. I see this as a very safe trade with an estimated 12% overall profit expected. I am in a WFC trade and looking at ETFs DPST and KRE as well
BLong
by AwesomeAvani
WFC setting up a VWAP bounce LONGOn this 4H chart, I see WFC having had a bit trend up and then a retractment through the upper anchored VWAP lines toward the mean running VWAP where I expect a bounce. At present, price action is in a bit of a flat bottom triangle. The ZL MACD supports this impending reversal with bullish divergence in the line cross under a histogram which went red to green. I will take a long trade here with a stop loss under the histogram and a target just below the pivot high in mid July. I will zoom onto a 30 minute time frame to better select an optimal entry on the reversal. I will check banks in general including the ETFs KRE KBE BNKU and DPST.
NYSE:WFCLong
by AwesomeAvani