KRE a banking sector ETF for regional banks LONGWhile tracking regional banks KRE had a bad time in the spring with the
small and regional bank failures/rescues and the federal actions to buttress the faith of
citizens in them. There have been no runs on the banks. Larger banks may be taken
some business from small banks saddled with securities with diminished
value due to rising interest rates and the effect on the face value of those
fixed-rate securities. No matter, things are better now. This is not to say
the whole banking sector stress is resolved. Banks have enjoyed great
returns on credit cards. The 15-minute chart here shows a good overall
uptrend within ascending parallel support and resistance trendlines.
Price is presently at the bottom of that parallel channel. The relative
trend index signal shows bearish trending today providing confirmation of
of a dip which is now available as an entry point. Relative Strength Indicator
which compares with the SPY showing persistent strength
Overall, I see this as a good entry point for a long-swing trade targeting
the top of the channel which I estimate will be about 52 by the
end of next week estimating the trade duration to be 5 trading days.
My reasonable opinion is that next week's volatility will be far less than
this past week and that DPST will do well. I will also take a look at
the KRE and KBE ETFs. I like this as a long setup with a 15% potential
for a very low risk in a stop loss set $.50 below the channel at 47.84
I have uploaded a similar idea on DPST.
KRE
$KRE Testing Double TopTechnical Analysis for AMEX:KRE Testing Double Top and 150 day moving average.
Banks are nearing a resistance level. The KBW Bank Index (BKX) and the SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) have both been on a strong upward trend in recent weeks, but they are now approaching their respective 150-day moving averages. These moving averages are important technical indicators, and they often act as resistance levels.
If the BKX and KRE break above their 150-day moving averages, they could continue to move higher. However, if they fail to break above these levels, they could pull back and consolidate.
For those with quick profits, it may be a good idea to take the money and run. The risk of a pullback is increasing as the BKX and KRE approach their 150-day moving averages.
The circumstance at present for each (the BKX and KRE) can be characterized as “a rally to a difficult level where overhead supply comes into play”. This means that there is a lot of selling pressure at these levels, and it could be difficult for the BKX and KRE to break through.
If you are still bullish on banks, I would recommend waiting for a pullback before buying. This would give you a better entry point and reduce your risk.
BNKD Is the banking crisis still simmering?Recently, a report posted on the Social Science Research Network found that 186 banks in the
United States are at risk of failure or collapse due to rising interest rates and a high proportion
of uninsured deposits.Jun 14, 2023
BNKD, the banking bearish and leveraged ETF has dropped in trend down in the past month
albeit with some upgoing corrections along the way. GS, JPM and MS are all uptrending as an
with DPST high jumping in the past day. On the 2H chart, BNKD is in deep oversold
undervalued territory at or below more than two standard deviations below the mean VWAP.
However:
(1) the mass index indicator popped into the reversal zone and then dropped below the trigger
level of 26.5. I see this as a mathematical prediction of a soon impending reversal.
(2) the dual time frame RSI shows the lower TF blue line bounced from the lows and the higher
TF is flat not showing further weakness. I consider this a subtle bullish divergence.
(3) Importantly the red line in the sand here is the POC line of the visible range volume profile.
Price is presently supported by that line showing buyers taking a defensive stand at that level.
Overall, I will take a long reversal trade here targeting the middle of the first upper deviation
band at 12.0 with a stop loss at 8.88. This is a high potential reward of 35% for a small risk
taken. The reward on an options trade would potentially be well over 100%. I will zoom into
a 15-30 minute time frame to select a pivot low to make a more precise entry.
VLY: Heading back to double-digitsOne of the cleanest setups I have ever laid eyes on. Clear impulsive 5-wave move off the low with each wave tagging ideal fibonacci extensions. The pull back was also 3-waves and perfectly tagged the ideal .5 fibonacci retracement. The last confirmation we need is for price to break above the previous high of $8.11 to confirm that we are heading to double-digits. A very high probability set up in my opinion.
DPST Long as the banking sector stabilizesDPST was down in April, consolidated in May and is now parabolically rising and had a price split
in recent days.On the one hour chart, price is rising along the quickly after a pivot on June 1.
Price is well above the POC line of the intermediate term volume profile showing buyer strength
The relative strength on the RSI indicator is flat over 80. I will take a long trade with a stop
loss at 5% and a take profit at 20%. I will end the trade early if the RSI drops below 75 as a risk
management maneuver. I will be viligent for a correction / retracement because the price is
up more than 10% in one day.
KRE - Regional Banking Crisis or Opportunity? KRE Regional Banking ETF
We are currently at oversold levels that offered good historic returns even if we only rise 15% to TASE:TASECTORBALANCE (Dec 2018 low) before moving lower.
Given the evolving Banking Crisis we could we revisit the bottom of the long term channel by EOY. This would be a great opportunity.
Throwback to TASE:TASECTORBALANCE dollars current idea... stay frosty on this one traders. Current wick low is your stop.
Safe Trading
PUKA
KBE ( in top of ascending channel ) is ready to shortKBE on the one-hour chart has been in a rising parallel channel for a month. It is now near the
the top of the channel having pivoted within the past few trading sessions. The MACD which is
no lag shows a line cross above the histogram while the RSI is topped out as it was on May 23rd
the most recent previous pivot downward. I see this as a short setup. The stop loss is at
the recent pivot high while the target is $35.15 at the bottom of the channel and somewhat
confluent with the POC line of the volume profile which is a natural bounce and reversal
value. I would also short the banks by going long on BNKD which adds the extra risk and
potential reward of leverage ( see that idea)
Is it time to short the big banks with BNKD again?As shown on the 4H chart BNKD, a triple leveraged ETF inverse to big bank stocks has had
ups and downs reflecting the chaos in the banking system with some failures and federal support
or takeovers. Online banks are thriving while some smaller regional banks are challenged with
a portfolio of bonds and treasuries bearing low yields. Price is presently at the same level
as the high of December 22 and low of April 23. This level is acting as support also allowing for
a narrow stop loss for a long trade. Price is below the high volume area of the long term
volume profile which equates to the fair value area. Accordingly, BNKD is oversold and
discounted below fair value into the undervalued range. It is below the mean anchored VWAP
line and in the area of one standard deviation below that line. The zero-lag MACD shows an
early impending cross of the lines under the histogram another suggestion of a reversal
I will take a long trade with the stop loss directly below the horizontal support line by
$ 0.25 while the first target just below the confluence of the POC line and the mean VWAP
@ $.13.90 while the final target is $ 15.60 near the top of the high volume area. I see this
as a safe long trade with a high R:R and profit potential.
BAC rising from support LONGBAC on the daily recently descended from an asymmetrical head and shoulders pattern
near to or in the supply zone as indicated by the Luxalgo indicator down into the demand
zone in late March and early May for a double bottom. Fundamentally, the banking system
has been propped up by the federal central banking mechanisms and the situation seems to
have stabilized. DPST and KRE banking ETFs have had some good days of late. On the chart
the Luxalgo Echo indicator, a predictive algorithmic tool, suggests that BAC will rise during this
summer and then bounced down from the resistance of the trendline of the neck of the
asymmetrical H & S. I can easily conclude that BAC is ripe for a long trade. I will take
an out of the money call option for DTE 9/20 striking #37.00. I will set the stop loss at
20% - Of the 15 contracts, I will close 2 after each 20% profit level is achieved and expect
to make overall 150-250% by mid-August. Because of time decay, I will not carry these
open beyond September 1st.
Debt Ceiling Issues Loom, Causing Market UncertaintyTraders,
I bring you another weekend market update. We'll discuss what the charts are telling us from a technical analysis perspective. Are there clues that the debt ceiling issues will be resolved? Can we obtain clues from our charts? Let's find out.
Stew
BOH Bank of Hawaii Is this a safe short?BOH has been in a downtrend for 2 months since the very beginning of the small bank crisis all
precipitated by the fed and its rate hikes confounding the value of bonds with fixed yields.
As can be seen on the 4H chart, price was in consolidation in January and February but the
dropped out of the supply / resistance zone which is quite thick by the Luxalgo indicator.
Price hit another consolidation range at about $ 50 and then moved lower as the banking crisis
was temporarily stabilized but then took another downside leg. the moving averages show
price underneath both the EMA 100 and EMA 20 while also in the range of three standard
deviations below the mean anchored VWAP. the EMA100 and the mean anchored VWAP
provide confluent super-trend direction. Support is breaking down; Price is in the deep
undervalued area and has not stabilized where it is. As such it bargain hunter's dream but
more likely a solid and sate shorting candidate. I always keep in mind if a catalyst such as
federal rescue measures comes into play, and price reverses above say $36.00 some buying
momentum could come into effect especially if short sellers need to cover their positions to
out with a small profit or loss. This play would have far less liquidity than PACW but perhaps
more room to the downside from which to realize profit.
KRE Is a reversal underway?KRE the regional bank ETF is down about 50 % YTD, with a couple of bank failures leading the
way. The question that arises is whether there is more downside. Faith and trust in the
the banking system is at risk. The big banks came in their rescue on First Republic. A run on
the little banks can hurt the big banks even Goldman Sacks. Holding treasuries with fixed
rates lower than current rate sucks for sure. The fed will clean up this mess and will
do it right and has started that process. KRE chart with the fisher transform indicator
and the zero-lag MACD tells me that KRE is now " reverting to the mean" & dropped below
the Fibonacci bands of the basis EMA. Line crossovers on the indicators are confirmatory.
I will seize the situation and add to my long position. Due you agree that this is picking low
laying fruit?
Regional Banks on the Brink!Zoom in and you will see that Regional Banks have closed several times now below this critical trend line. If the Fed fails to save them, deflationary recession/depression it is. I am banking on a Fed save. The Fed always protects it's own. Therefore, blow-off top incoming. Followed by hyper-inflationary recession/depression next year.
Should be a show.
Stew
PANW Is this bank stock reversing or a correction?PANW as a stressed back stock has been trending down. However as seen with the regional
banks at large ( KRE as an example ) the bear market had a bullish rally the past couple of
trading days. So, is this a reversal to trade or merely a pullback of the trend down good for
a short entry? On the 15 minute chart price has ascended to outside the Fibonacci bands
(EMA 42 2.618 bands) where mean reversion may soon apply. The fisher transform lines are
approaching the redline above where reversal is statistically likely. On the zero lag MACD,
the lines have crossed and are about to cross the zero line. Overall, the chart suggests to be
that PANW and perhaps the regional banks in general are merely taking a break from the trend
down. I see this as an entry opportunity to join the continuation of the trend and will take
a short position.
Decision Time for Bitcoin this Week. Plus Some Positive SignsTraders,
Bitcoin has reached the end of a very important triangle. It's time to make a decision. This week we should find out if:
1) Bitcoin breaks up and beats our 30,500 resistance, or
2) Bitcoin drops from our triangle and retests our C&H neckline at 25,300
We are going to dig into the charts for a few more clues and I want to show you the charts that are most important for you to keep and eye on this week.
Stew
AAPL Earnings Beat $170 Key Level | Bank Fears | QQQ Analysis- AAPL short under 170 long over 170
- Regular trading hour for AAPL will be key to the direction, lots of calls bought for 170
- SPY double bottom today key level of support
- QQQ bounced off key support at 315
- AMEX:KRE made new lows XLF still weak
FOMC Summary | QQQ & SPY Analysis | KRE & PACW Bust | QCOM ER- FOMC Summary: 0.25bps hike today, Powell saying no cuts this year may made the market a bit red but he said that last time too. I personally think it was because market participants this time wanting to hear a pause due to it being so price in but he didnt say any of that so market went down.
- QQQ bounce off of Key support yesterday but broke below today
- NASDAQ:QQQ and AMEX:SPY both below 12 EMA
- NASDAQ:PACW NEWS wanting to sell its entire bank AH, causing market to drop
- NASDAQ:QCOM ER saying lower demand on phones made NASDAQ:AAPL drop
🔥 Failling Banks BULLISH For Bitcoin & Gold: But Why?Over the last two months there's been several that have gone insolvent and got eventually bailed out by the FED, or have been taken over by larger banks.
Initially, this looming crisis caused a lot of stress in the markets during the first two weeks of March. However, once Silicon Valley Bank got shut down & bailed out we saw a huge bullish move in both Bitcoin (helped by a short-squeeze) and Gold, whilst the Regional Banks ETF continued to make new lows.
Yesterday, there was a another big bank that has gone insolvent and has been taken over by JPMorgan. Stocks fell significantly and the Regional Banks ETF made new lows because of sell-offs in other banks.
This sparked another bullish move in both Bitcoin and Gold because investors are fleeing to safety. Physicals commodities like Bitcoin and Gold don't need a bank. You can buy them and store them either on your own PC or in your house. Furthermore, big banks like JPMorgan and the like saw their balances swell because they are deemed to big to fail, unlike smaller regional banks.
With the FED most likely increasing the interest rates further, there's a decent probability for more (regional) banks to fail. This will most likely be bullish for Bitcoin, since more money will flock to the relative safety that Bitcoin offers.
If the banking crisis will get very severe with, for example, big banks failing, it can spark a massive move of BTC towards >50k. The technicals don't support a move like this, but a macro-related event like big banks failing could trigger a massive influx of buyers.
Future will tell. All we can see now is that regional banks in distress is triggering a flight to 'safe' commodities like BTC and Gold.
SPX & NADSAQ | KRE Fear Low | FOMC| AMD NVDA| Technical AnalysisRed flag 1: SP:SPX & SKILLING:NASDAQ did not break close above Key resistance yesterday
New fear low in AMEX:KRE regional banks, fear of snowing balling into something substantial
NASDAQ:AMD poor Q2 guidance down 6% AH dragging NASDAQ:NVDA to break its 280 support.
FOMC 11pm PST tomorrow 0.25 hike 90% chance.
Shorting NASDAQ:SOXX in AMEX:SOXS