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KRE

KRE June 16th 35/April 21st 55 Long Call Diagonal IdeaDo you ... fade this move? Pictured here is a long call diagonal with the long leg out in June at the +90 delta, and the short leg out in April at the -30 to synthetically emulate the net delta of a covered call position (i.e., long stock/short call) where the short call of the covered call setup would be at the -40 delta strike. Metrics: Assumption: Neutral* to Bullish Buying Power Effect: 15.09 debit Break Even: 50.09 relative to 50.69 Spot Max Profit: 4.91 ($491) ROC%-Age as a Function of Buying Power Effect: 32.5% at max; 16.3% at 50% max; 8.1% at 25% max. Alternative Setups: April 21st 54 Covered Call. (Buy a one lot at 50.69, simultaneously sell the April 21st 54) Metrics: Assumption: Neutral to Bullish Buying Power Effect: 48.09 debit (cash secured); 23.33 (on margin) Break Even: 48.08 relative to 50.69 Spot Max Profit: 5.91 ($591) ROC %-Age as a Function of Buying Power Effect: 12.3% at max (cash secured); 25.3% at max (on margin). April 21st 46 Short Put (25 Delta) Assumption: Neutral to Bullish Buying Power Effect: 5.46 ($546) (On Margin); 44.33 (Cash Secured) Break Even: 44.33 relative to 50.69 Spot Max Profit: 1.67 ($167) ROC %-Age as a Function of Buying Power Effect: 30.5% (on margin); 3.8% (cash secured) As you can see by looking over the metrics, there are various advantages to each setup. With the long call diagonal, the ROC %-age stands out as its positive attribute, but the break even is basically at or near where the underlying is currently trading. With the covered call, the buying power effect relative to the long call diagonal is a bummer, but you start out with a break even below where the underlying is currently trading. The max profit potential of the covered call relative to that of the long call diagonal is comparable, but the ROC %-age in the covered call is lower due to the higher buying power effect, particularly in a cash secured environment like an IRA, where the long call diagonal would be far more buying power efficient. There may, however, be some small advantage to being in the stock: KRE pays a dividend, but it's only quarterly, so it would conceivably pay a distribution in March (the next distribution) and June. The last distribution was .4058 (i.e., $40.58 per one lot), so we're not talking hugely motivating money here. With the short put, your break even is more than $6 below where the underlying is currently trading, but the max profit potential isn't great relative to those of the covered call or long call diagonal. That being said, the ROC %-age at max is comparable to that of the long call diagonal. * -- I classify covered calls and "synthetic covered calls" like long call diagonals as "neutral to bullish" assumption setups due to the ability to reduce cost basis over time via roll of the short call aspect so that you could conceivably make money if the underlying moves sideways.
AMEX:KRELong
by NaughtyPines
You decide - SVB Financial collapse - who is to blame?A lot of talk on who is to blame for the SVB Financial collapse – this is the first big casualty of rapid rate hikes and tighter policy, but who is to blame and what are the next steps? -SVBs management – they invested short-term deposits in longer term fixed income assets – where a large % of its $120b securities portfolio lacked any kind of interest rate hedge (payers swaps were clearly needed) -SVBs management – In the past 8 months SVB had no risk manager - fortune.com - no one knows how they efficiently managed risk -SVBs management – the accounts showed they held $91b of its $120b securities in its HTM (assets Held to Maturity) book – these are assets they intend to hold until maturity but the accounting rules detail, that they don’t need to mark-to-market the moves in the underlying and report the ballooning losses – which again were not hedged. -SVB deposit mix - 93%+ were above the FDIC insurance limit – this makes depositors v sensitive to any capital concerns at the bank -SVB deposit mix - VCs had a rapid cash burn, as projects they back are typically driven by changes in interest rates (think Net Present value and Internal rates of return) – depositors took cash off SVB’s balance sheet to fund operations – SVB subsequently had to sell assets as their liabilities fell – we then see realised losses from buying securities at much higher prices. -Short sellers/investor base – shorts had an eye on unrealised losses from the worsening asset quality for weeks – the selling accelerated when the CEO/CFO/CMO disclosed they’d sold a chunk of stock on 27 March – it was over when the SVB took a $1.8b hit on its AFS securities available for sale on Wednesday – management sold $21b of its $28b book and announced a $2.25b in equity/debt raising - investors knew with conviction that depositors were fleeing – who supports a raising when liabilities are falling – no one sensible, raising pulled -The Fed - failing to know such a shift in rates would impact banks asset quality when its primary function is financial stability. -Regulation - Basel 3 - banks being forced to buy govt paper against deposits - v low risk weighting (perhaps required a hedge Hard to pinpoint this on one aspect IMO - I think there is a perfect storm going on – a lack of hedging of interest rate risk was clearly a dominant factor behind this. Top down this is a function of rapidly tightening monetary policy and the impact this had on both the asset quality and liability side of the balance sheet – we should recall SVBs model is not the same as others in the banking space, so its hard to say this is systemic – still we wait for the outcome on next steps on how deposits over $250k will be dealt with – we’re hearing they may get 50% back initially but a buyer would be the best solution The issue for regional/smaller banks comes if is we see some sort of haircut on the deposits claim over $250k – that could see a loss of confidence in holding deposits with other smaller banks names – we shall hear more soon, but broad contagion through the financial system seems unlikely, but it is a possibility given nearly 1/3 deposits in the banking system are uninsured – any bank with a large asset base and low equity are in the spotlight As said Friday this could be a nothing burger or have real impactions on economics - the big issue happens this week if we see no clarity on how depositors are dealt (seems unlikely) with and we get a hot CPI print
AMEX:KRE
by Pepperstone
31
SIVB Meltdown- Canary in the Coal mind?Today we saw a systemic risk in the financial sector. The regional banks were hit extremally hard and as a result the Major banks saw sell side liquidation. Where there's one cockroach, there's usually another. Risk in the banking sector is the worst type of risk investors can ask for. Credit liquidity crisis is not something to mess around with. SIVB looks like its in serious trouble potentially being exposed to fraudulent crypto loans that will likely default as well as failed speculative startups in the tech and health care space.
S
by Trading-Capital
go long HBANTCF bank began merging in to Huntington Bank after receiving shareholder approval, ticker HBAN, in March of 2021 with the intention of being completed within the year. This will put it in the top 10 regional banks and will rank 5th in 70% of deposit markets. Regional banks are set to benefit from rising rates and inflation. The cost synergies and the ability to more heavily compete with the larger regional banks should provide it a runway to longterm growth. In the meantime, while these changes take place you will collect a 3.8119% quarterly dividend and have time to accumulate shares. "Cost synergies are anticipated to be around $490 million, or 37% of TCF Financial's non-interest expenses. Per Huntington’s expectations, the deal is likely to be 18% accretive to earnings by year-end 2022, including the fully phased-in transaction cost synergies." -yahoo finance It has been in a period of consolidation/trading sideways but I expect it to began to break to new highs as strengths are combined and weak branches are closed. It has underperformed in comparison to the KRE which is a proxy for the overall regional banking sector. This trend should reverse. www.prnewswire.com www.freep.com
NASDAQ:HBANLong
by EBITDAtiger
OPENING (IRA): KRE MARCH 19TH 42 SHORT PUT... for a 1.08/contract credit. Notes: I already have some January on, and there is no February currently, so going out to March with 30-day still >35% at 36.5% and expiry specific at 38.4%. As with my other IRA short put trades, I'm fine with getting assigned, selling call against, particularly since it has a small dividend to pay you while you wait to exit any covered call profitably. ROC: 2.64% at max as a function of notional risk; 9.6% annualized at max.
AMEX:KRE
by NaughtyPines
4
THE WEEK AHEAD: KBH, DAL, ICLN, SLV, EWZ, KRE, XLE, IWM/RUTEARNINGS: There aren't a ton of earnings next week. Some financials are announcing, but I generally don't play those a ton for volatility contraction, since they never really frisk up that much, and all are below 50% 30-day implied here. KBH provides the best bang for your buck with the implied metrics I'm generally looking for (>50%), followed by DAL. Both, however, are at the low end of their 52-week range, in part due to the massive vol spike we experienced in March, which will make that metric somewhat misleading here. KBH (18/56/14.5%),* Tuesday after market close. DAL (7/53/12.9%), Wednesday before market open. C (17/44/9.8%), Friday before market open. JPM (14/32/7.8%), Friday before market open. WFC (22/44/10.6%), Friday before market open. EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS RANKED BY PERCENTAGE THE FEBRUARY 19TH AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE IS PAYING AS A FUNCTION OF STOCK PRICE: ICLN (14/79/20.0%) SLV (31/48/11.3%) EWZ (16/44/10.6%) XLE (22/41/10.2%) KRE (17/42/9.9%) BROAD MARKET: Pictured here is an IWM short put out in March at the strike paying at least 1% of the strike in credit. An IRA trade, I would look to roll up intraexpiry to lock in realized gain with >45 days 'til expiry, take profit on approaching worthless (<.20), and sell call against if assigned. Currently 67 days 'til expiry, it is understandably a bit long in duration, but I already have some on in the February monthly. IWM (26/34/7.6%) QQQ (21/31/6.9%) DIA (14/24/5.2%) SPY (11/24/5.0%) EFA (14/21/4.7%) * -- The first metric is the implied volatility rank or percentile (i.e., where implied is relative to where it's been over the past 52 weeks); the second, the 30-day implied volatility; and the third, what the at-the-money short straddle is paying as a function of the stock price.
AMEX:IWM
by NaughtyPines
2
THE WEEK AHEAD: GDXJ/GDX, XLE, KRE, SLV, IWM/RUTEARNINGS: No options liquid underlyings announcing earnings this week that meet my criteria for a volatility contraction play, although ORCL (24/31) and WORK (2/33) both announce and could be played in some other way. EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS RANKED BY THE PERCENTAGE THE JANUARY AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE IS PAYING AS A FUNCTION OF STOCK PRICE: GDXJ (14/41/12.1%) XLE (25/41/10.4%) KRE (23/40/10.6%) SLV (28/41/10.2%) GDX (15/38/10.2%) EWZ (15/39/10.0%) BROAD MARKET EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS RANKED BY THE PERCENTAGE THE JANUARY AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE IS PAYING AS A FUNCTION OF STOCK PRICE: IWM (23/28/7.1%) QQQ (20/27/6.3%) DIA (15/21/5.2%) SPY (12/20/4.8%) EFA (17/24/4.4%) Pictured here is a RUT January 22nd 1655/1705 short put vertical with the short option leg camped out at the 16 delta. Markets are showing wide in the off hours, but look to get at least 10% of the width of the spread out of any play, with the preference being to put something on in a down day with the accompanying rise in volatility and expansion of the "probability cone." A smaller alternative would naturally be in IWM, where I'd look to get at least .50 out of January 22nd 162.5/167.5 5-wide. For those who like to swim naked, the IWM January 22nd 162.5 (15 delta) and was paying 1.91 as of Friday close (1.15% ROC at max as a function of notional risk; 8.93% annualized). * * * On the IRA/retirement account front, I'll be looking to programmatically deploy buying power in broad market over medium to long-term time frames over the next several weeks and then turn to focusing on shorter term plays, so you're likely to see some apparently oddball things in my ideas feed that won't make a ton of sense looked at in isolation and won't be for everybody not only due to buying power effect, but due to duration. I'm using SPY here, but one can certainly do something similar in another of the cheaper (a relative term) exchange-traded funds with high liquidity that will allow you to ladder out in time without giving up too much to lack of liquidity in longer duration. Essentially, it will look like a short put ladder, but with the rungs put on over time in increasing duration in similarly delta'd strikes or in strikes which pay a certain ROC %-age relative to the strike price (e.g., the SPY February 19th 321 short put, paying 3.27; the March 19th 300 short put, paying 3.02; the April 16th 283, paying 2.87, etc.), after which the individual rungs will be separately managed. Although this isn't particularly buying power efficient relative to defined risk spreads, I'm shooting for a setup that is relatively set and forget running into retirement where I don't necessarily have to pop my portfolio open on a daily (or even weekly) basis to manage trades, but can go for fairly lengthy periods of time without having to touch or manage rungs and with modest expectations as to ROC %-age. As a "quasi-cash" option, I'll also continue to deploy idle buying power in things like HYG puts (See Post Below) just that I'm not earning 0% of 0 and where I'm comfortable taking on shares and selling call against. Point in fact, that is probably not a bad stand-alone setup for an extremely conservative investor who isn't keen on taking broad market bullish assumption positions at all-time-highs where a number of people are calling "bubble" week after week. That being said, even this type of setup isn't riskless, as we saw in the March "sell everything" dip. At some point, you will potentially have to take on shares ... .
TVC:RUT
by NaughtyPines
2
THE WEEK AHEAD: XOP/XLE, GDXJ/GDX, KRE, EWZ, IWM/RUTEARNINGS: It's a light week for earnings announcements, which means it's an even lighter week for options liquid underlyings, none of which meet my cut-off for 30-day implied >50%. EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS RANKED BY PERCENTAGE THE JANUARY AT THE MONEY SHORT STRADDLE IS PAYING AS A FUNCTION OF STOCK PRICE: XOP (18/59/15.8%) GDXJ (16/42/13.2%) XLE (26/46/11.6%) KRE (24/40/11.4%) GDX (17/40/11.4%) USO (7/46/11.0%) EWZ (15/39/10.6%) SLV (25/38/10.3%) Honorable Mention: GLD (23.5/18.5/5.0%) * * * Pictured here is an XOP January 15th 46 short put, which was paying .92 as of Friday close (2.04% ROC as a function of notional risk at max; 15.5% annualized at max). I still like bullish assumption, pandemic recovery plays in the oil space, although implied volatility has bled out quite a bit here, and the break even (45.08) would be above the 2020 lows. GLD gets an honorable mention here due to its being nearly 15% off of its early August highs with the January 15th strike nearest the 16 delta (the 157) paying .94 as of Friday's close (.60% as a function of notional risk at max; 4.6% annualized). The ROC %-age isn't great, however, but if you're looking to establish a gold position, now might be the time to consider starting one. I'm already working one here, (See Post Below), and will consider adding once December out-of-the-money's fall off or I manage them. Alternatively, look to establish a position in SLV, GDXJ, or the more liquid GDX, all of which are more scalable due to size and provide more bang for your buck, with the GDXJ January 15th 42 paying .70 (1.7% ROC as a function of notional risk; 12.9% annualized), the GDX January 15th 30 paying .40 (1.4% ROC at max; 10.3% annualized), and the SLV January 15th 19 paying .30 (1.6% ROC at max as a function of notional risk; 12.9% annualized at max). For those of a defined risk bent, the GLD January 15th 153/158 short put vertical was paying .54 at the mid as of Friday close (10.8% ROC at max; 82.1% annualized). BROAD MARKET IWM (23/29/7.8%) QQQ (19/25/6.9%) DIA (16/22/5.8%) SPY (13/21/5.3%) EFA (16/18/4.6%) Volatility has pissed out mightily here, and the <10% the at-the-money short straddles are paying in the January cycle are reflective of that. The IWM January 15th 157 short put was paying .94 (.6% ROC at max as a function of notional risk; 4.6% annualized) as of Friday close, which isn't exactly great. Here, defined is more compelling from a pure ROC %-age return perspective (it usually is), with the IWM January 15th 158/163 was paying .54 as of Friday's close (10.8% ROC at max; 82.1% annualized) and its cash-settled counterpart RUT, paying 5.10 for the January 15th 1610/1660 with similar ROC %-age metrics with the short option legs camped out at the 16 delta strike. Naturally, you can be more aggressive, bringing in the setup more toward the expected move.
AMEX:XOP
by NaughtyPines
2
THE WEEK AHEAD: GPS EARNINGS; KRE, XLE, EWZ, IWM/RUTEARNINGS: Only one underlying makes my cut for a earnings announcement volatility contraction play: GPS (25/70/14.9%),* which announces on Tuesday after market close, so look to put on a play in the waning hours of Tuesday's session. To me, it's small enough to short straddle, with the pictured setup paying 3.72 (.93 at 25% max). Alternatively, go short strangle: the December 18th 22/29 was paying 1.25 (.62 at 50% max). Of a defined risk bent? Go iron fly with the December 18th 20/25/25/30 and get better than risk one to make metrics, with the setup paying 3.00 even as of Friday close (.75 at 25% max). EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS RANKED BY BANG FOR YOUR BUCK (JANUARY 15TH EXPIRY): KRE (22/40/14.0%) (Yield: 3.43%) XLE (25/43/12.5%) (Yield: 6.15%) EWZ (17/43/12.2%) (Yield: 2.89%) GDX (13/37/11.7%) (No dividends) SLV (22/37/10.8%) (No dividends) BROAD MARKET RANKED BY BANG FOR YOUR BUCK (JANUARY 15TH EXPIRY): IWM (24/30/8.5%) QQQ (20/26/7.6%) SPY (18/23/6.2%) EFA (16/19/5.3%) * -- The first metric is volatility rank/percentile (i.e., where 30-day implied volatility is relative to where it's hung out the past 52 weeks); the second, 30-day implied; and the third, what the December at-the-money short straddle is paying as a function of stock price ("Bang for Your Buck").
G
by NaughtyPines
THE WEEK AHEAD: LB, ARMK, TGT EARNINGS; XOP, GDXJ, KRE, IWM/RUTEARNINGS-RELATED VOLATILITY CONTRACTION PLAYS: LB (7/69/16.0%):* Announcing Wednesday after market close. ARMK (11/56/13.1%): Announcing Tuesday before market open. TGT (30/39/8.6%): Announcing Wednesday before market open. Honorable Mentions: LOW (23/39/8.6%): Announcing Wednesday before market open. HD (17/31/6.7%): Announcing Tuesday before market open. WMT (24/30/6.4%): Announcing Tuesday before market open. Pictured here is an LB December 18th (34 days) 29/39 short strangle paying 1.99 at the mid price as of Friday close (.99 at 50% max) with 2 x expected move break evens. EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS RANKED BY BANK FOR YOUR BUCK: XOP (14/54/12.7%) GDXJ (15/46/11.3%) KRE (26/45/10.6%) USO (6/50/10.3%) BROAD MARKET RANKED BY BUCK BANG: IWM (25/31/6.9%) QQQ (23/29/6.3%) SPY (16/23/4.9%) EFA (17/20/4.6%) * -- The first number is the implied volatility rank or percentile (i.e., where 30-day implied volatility is relative to where it's been over the past 52 weeks); the second, 30-day implied volatility; and the third, the percentage the December at-the-money short straddle is paying as a function of stock price.
NYSE:LB
by NaughtyPines
18
Regional Banks On the Move!Regional banks have been an absolute dog as of late. They lag almost everything, other than energy. This sector has shown some strength since the “Tech Wreck”. So why do we focus on this group? Well it is part of a larger story…. interest rates. Let’s hop on the chart. So here we have the charts of KRE. We have seen a downward sloping trendline that was intact for months break. Now we are going to test an area of overhead supply. If we break through at that area, that is bullish for stocks. If we break down at that level, we would be looking for a higher low to confirm the trend reversal. We are also seeing the RSI break through some overhead resistance which is bullish. We want to see participation from financials, even the small ones! Now this is also part of a larger story of interest rates. If KRE is rising, we can assume rates will rise as well. At least in the short term during reversals, these two trend together. We are seeing utilities break out too, which is another leading indicator of rates increasing. Happy Trading!
AMEX:KRELong
by derzzycharts
1
THE WEEK AHEAD: DAL, CCL EARNINGS; GDXJ/GDX, SLV, KREEARNINGS: CCL (28/88/25.9%) and DAL (18/77/22.1%)* announce earnings on Thursday. The DAL November 20th 21 delta, 2 x expected move 26/41 short strangle is paying 2.41 or 7.6% as a function of stock price (1.20 at 50% max; 3.8% as a function of stock price). I've pictured a short put here as the simplest play to get in on a sector that has been hammered by the pandemic, assuming you don't mind potentially being assigned at that price to work a longer-term play (i.e., covered calls). CCL is small enough to play via short straddle, with the November 20th 15 short straddle paying 3.92 or 25.9% as a function of stock price (.98 at 25% max; 6.5% as a function of stock price). Alternatively, the > 2 x expected move 10/20 short strangle is paying .93 (.46 at 50% max; 3.0% as a function of stock price). EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS WITH >35% 30-DAY IMPLIED RANKED BY PERCENTAGE THE NOVEMBER AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE IS PAYING AS A FUNCTION OF STOCK PRICE: TQQQ (41/103/30.2%) XOP (19/60/17.3%) USO (10/55/146%) GDXJ (20/50/15.1%) SLV (39/48/13.5%) EWZ (21/46/14.1%) XLE (30/44/131%) XBI (36/45/13.0%) GDX (19/42/12.7%) SMH (27/47/11.2%) QQQ (35/35/10.5%) BROAD MARKET: QQQ (35/35/10.5%) IWM (32/34/9.8%) EFA (25/22/9.0%) SPY (21/26/8.0%) IRA DIVIDEND EARNERS/PREMIUM SELLING: KRE (28/47/13.6%) (Current Yield: 3.83%) SLV (39/48/13.5%) (No Yield; Precious Metals Position) EWZ (21/46/14.1%) (Current Yield: 3.80%) XLE (30/44/13.1%) (Current Yield: 7.52%) XBI (36/45/13.0%) (Current Yield: .35%; Premium Selling Play) SMH (27/47/11.2%) (Current Yield: 0.00%; Premium Selling Play) QQQ (35/35/10.5%) (0.60% Yield; Premium Selling Play) MUSINGS: With the general elections now 29 days away, I'm not doing much here in terms of adding new positions. With the margin account in particular, I'm looking at going completely flat at or near October opex and then watching the show from the sidelines. On the IRA/retirement account front, I'm already in most of the underlyings at the top of the implied volatility ladder, so don't anticipate doing much here anyway. I will naturally look at delta on a portfolio-wide basis to see whether I need additional delta one way or the other to make myself less directional running into the elections. We could, after all, conceivably see one of a variety of things depending on how things play out (i.e., relief rally, sell-off, "sideways nothing burger"). With Friday's sell-off, however, I'm tempted to add a smidge more of QQQ in the November cycle for my weekly 16 delta, 45 days 'til expiry broad market short put (the November 20th 16 delta 237 short put was paying 3.73 at the mid as of Friday close; 1.60% ROC as a function of notional risk). * -- The first metric is where 30-day implied volatility is relative to where it's been over the past 52 weeks; the second, 30-day implied volatility; and the third, the percentage the November at-the-money short straddle is paying as a function of stock price.
NYSE:DAL
by NaughtyPines