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KRE

THE WEEK AHEAD: MU, BBBY EARNINGS; XOP, GDXJ, SLV, EWZ, KRE, XLEEARNINGS ANNOUNCEMENT VOLATILITY CONTRACTION PLAYS: MU (27/57/10.8%)*, announces Tuesday after market close. BBBY (32/105/20.2%), announcement Thursday before market open. Pictured here is an MU October 16th 44/55 short strangle, paying 1.52 as of Friday's close (.76 at 50% max). For those of a defined risk bent: the MU October 16th 40/45/52.5/57.5 iron condor was paying 1.74 at the mid as of Friday's close, (.87 at 50% max). For BBBY, I'd probably go short straddle, skinny short strangle, or skinny iron condor with the October 16th 14/15 skinny short strangle paying 2.46 as of Friday's close (.62 at 25% max), and the October 16th 10/14/15/19 4-wide paying 2.02 (.51 at 25% max) with risk one to make one metrics. OPTIONS LIQUID EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS SCREENED FOR >35% 30-DAY IMPLIED AND RANKED BY PERCENTAGE THE NOVEMBER (56 DAY'S) AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE IS PAYING AS A FUNCTION OF STOCK PRICE: XOP (16/54/17.8%) GDX (22/54/17.0%) SLV (39/48/14.4%) EWZ (19/44/14.1%) GDX (21/43/14.1%) XLE (26/41/13.5%) SMH (24/40/11.3%) BROAD MARKET: QQQ (33/34/10.9%) IWM (31/34/10.6%) SPY (21/26/8.3%) EFA (22/24/7.1%) DIVIDEND GENERATORS FOR THE IRA SCREENED FOR THOSE WHERE THE NOVEMBER AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE IS PAYING >10% OF STOCK PRICE: SLV (39/48/14.4%)** EWZ (19/44/14.1%) KRE (27/44/14.2%) XLE (26/41/13.5%) MUSINGS: With the major binary event of the year approaching (U.S. general elections), I'll be attempting to resist the urge to trade in the margin account and will flatten that completely running into the October monthly expiry. The intent was to wind that account up prior to year end, so now is as good a time as any. With retirement approaching, my medium to long-term focus will be turning to IRA trades in a cash secured environment, with the focus on exchange-traded-funds with dividends and the general go-to strategy being short put, acquisition, and covering, resorting to highly liquid single name only in the event that sector and broad market volatility totally dry up. I'll continue to grind on those broad market/exchange-traded fund trades through the election as long as volatility hangs in there, naturally keeping some powder dry in the event that a high volatility event presents itself. This basic approach has worked well over the years, and I see no particular reason to change it now, even though it has zero sexiness and can be slow going, particularly if you're not the patient type. My current stock positions are in SPY (covered call), TLT (covered call), IYR (covered call), and EFA (covered call). In addition, I've got short puts or short put ladders deployed in QQQ, IWM, SPY, SLV, EWZ, KRE, XLE, GLD, and HYG. Previously, I was hesitant to dump my stock positions or allow them to be called away due to their paying dividends, but may change my tune, particularly with SPY, where the dividend is a paltry 1.76% relative to what the 30-day 2 x expected move short put is paying currently. Naturally, what a given option will pay will depend on where the implied volatility is at the given moment, but here the 2 x expected move short put nearest 30 days is the October 26th 305, paying 2.60 or .86% ROC at max (10.32% annualized). The basic question is whether it's generally worth it to hang out in shares when you don't have to, even if you're getting a little extra something something if you've covered.*** Short puts, after all, make money regardless of whether the stock goes up or sideways and can even make money if the market goes down, assuming that your break even isn't broken; stock only makes money if it goes up. Short puts can be rolled to reduce cost basis further; once you're in stock, you're married to the position. I guess I'm trying to talk myself into allowing my shares to be called away ... . :-) * -- The first metric is the implied volatility rank (i.e., where 30-day implied is relative to where it's been over the past 52 weeks); the second, 30-day implied volatility; and the third, the percentage the October at-the-money short straddle is paying as a function of stock price. ** -- Neither SLV nor GLD pay a dividend. *** -- The 2 x expected move short call nearest 30 days is the October 26th 346, paying 1.56 or 18.72 annualized, which also far exceeds what you'll receive in SPY dividends on an annual basis (currently 5.681/share or $568.10 per year for a one lot).
NASDAQ:MU
by NaughtyPines
THE WEEK AHEAD: GDXJ, XOP, KRE, EWZ, QQQEARNINGS ANNOUNCEMENT VOLATILITY CONTRACTION PLAYS: Currently, no options highly liquid underlyings announcing earnings next week with high rank/implied. EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS SCREENED FOR 30-DAY IMPLIED > 35%: GDXJ (16/54/12.0%)* XOP (16/51/12.1%) SLV (34/47/10.7%) EWZ (17/45/10.7%) GDX (18/43/10.2%) BROAD MARKET: QQQ (32/35/8.2%) IWM (27/32/7.3%) SPY (22/26/5.6%) EFA (16/21/4.6%) DIVIDEND-GENERATING EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS: EWZ (17/45/10.7%) SLV (34/47/10.7%)** KRE (24/45/10.4%) XLE (23/41/9.3%) EWA (26/27/6.7%) SPY (22/26/5.8%) IYR (19/26/5.6%) XLU (17/23/5.2%) EFA (16/21/4.6%) GLD (24/20/4.4%) TLT (9/16/3.5%) HYG (15/14/2.6%) EMB (14/22/2.5%) Pictured here is a two-rung short put ladder in KRE (Current Yield 3.70%) intended for a retirement account environment. It was paying 1.83 at the mid as of the Friday close, but it's bid 1.43/ask 2.18 in the off hours, so will have to price that out during the New York session. I've already got some EWZ on (See Post, below), but may consider adding some SLV for precious metal exposure in addition to my GLD due to its higher volatility and scalability (which I probably should have thought about before throwing a three lot GLD ladder out there) (See, GLD Post, below). I've also added XLE to the list due to its current yield of 6.81%. GENERAL THOUGHTS: With the U.S. general elections occurring on Tuesday, November 3rd, I'll be looking to lighten up margin account positions running into the October monthly expiry (now 33 days 'til expiry). I will consider just flattening out completely, and then reestablishing positions thereafter. If you recall the last general election in 2016, it was limit down in /ES during the Asian session, all of which evaporated by New York open, leaving minimal volatility to take advantage of in its wake. I could see playing /ES in the overnight to capitalize on a potential volatility contraction that may occur in /ES from the overnight to the New York session, but it will depend to a certain extent on how much volatility expands running into the election. I'll try to post a potential trade set-up, but I can say it's likely to take one of two forms: (a) an at-the-money long call vertical to take advantage of skew and with risk one to make one metrics; or (b) an out-of-the-money short put vertical -- both defined risk. I lean toward the credit side (short put vertical) due to having more room to be wrong, but will have to price things out in the moment to compare and contrast the two setups for buying power effect, profit potential, and probability of profit. In the IRA, I'm going to keep on grinding on things as long as I can find decent premium to sell without going totally crazy; I want to keep a decent amount of buying power free in the event that we do get a big volatility event that shouldn't be passed up. * -- The first number is the implied volatility rank (where 30-day implied is relative to where it's been over the past 52 weeks); the second, the 30-day implied volatility; and the third, the percentage of stock price the at-the-money short straddle is paying in the October monthly. ** -- Neither GLD nor SLV pay a dividend, but I have a GLD position on to give me some exposure to precious metals.
AMEX:KRE
by NaughtyPines
2
Ugly Chart and Bad Fundies for BanksExpecting something like this to play out with KRE (regional banks). So many headwinds for banks going forward, even if we avoid any further Corona problems (big if), we are expected to be in a zero or negative rate environment for years to come. Just look at what happened to Japanese and European banks under those conditions for long timeframes. It's not pretty. Plenty of room to the downside after breaking through the primary wedge support line. Next stop looks like $33 area. Would expect some sort of bounce there before resuming downtrend to test the march lows. Position: 12/18/20 25p Would reassess if genuine reflation and growth begins in the economy. Long duration on the option so even if next move in stocks is upwards I plan to diamond hands these.
AMEX:KREShort
by ZChartDoc
5
$SPY : Intermediate trend remains positive#SPY did not give up much ground yesterday and remains above 20 EMA, so intermediate trend is bullish. #IWM, however, was very weak. As was $KRE and financials. Today is jobless claims report. Last two weeks the indices rocketed higher with job losses in the millions as FED came in with trillions $'s stimulus. Will FED announce ETF's buys this time as the job report is expected to be dismal? Time will tell. More banks are going to report today and they have been sold with a vengeance as their earnings reports are perceived as horrendous. So bifurcated markets, with institutions tech growth stocks holding up while financials and small caps remain under pressure.
AMEX:SPY
by insyyte
KRE, update!AMEX:KRE Price has come back into critical zone, trying to clear the resistance levels. Short term price momentum as indicated by red line is upwards. AS long as price above this line, stay long. By joining various lows, I have formed the medium and long term support lines Price has already created a support level near $48.87. Important trading levels R1 : $58.60 R2 : 65.77 S1 – 50.88 S2 : 45.16 S3 : 36.25 Please share a thumbs up if you like what you read! Cheers
AMEX:KRELong
by LoveForCharts
The #Fed Is Saying the Cycle Is DoneToday's FOMC minutes, and subsequent conference, was enlightening. The Fed has signalled that there will be no additional hikes in 2019, which the market had already priced in. Additionally, the Fed's quantitative tightening ( balance sheet reduction) will be tapered and expected to end by the end of September. The bid-to-risk was short lived as the SPY and DIA closed negative, and QQQ was well of session highs. There was a frantic bid to treasuries, which The Macro Strategist have been advocating for months. Cyclicals have lagged the 2019 rally, and they received no solace from Powell & Co. The problem with the Fed's complete withdrawal from monetary tightening comes at a time when, much like ECB's Draghi, was forced to admit the best of growth and inflation are beyond us. Financials were slammed post-FOMC, and they will test minor-rally support of $25.86. The near-term TACVOL range sits 26.99/25.88 while the intermediate range 28.19/23.07 which would target to the downside. Notice, XLF is tracking the eurodollar 2019 lower ready to price a lax Fed.
AMEX:XLF
by TheMacroStrategist
STI Break OutShares of regional bank SunTrust (STI) have recently broken out to new highs and looks to have some room to run further. I'm jumping in via October 19 $77.5 calls (the $75's would be fine, too... a $75/$80 spread could help lower cost), as it takes me thru the next earnings report on Oct. 18. That said, I'll likely exit prior to the report to capture the increase in premiums that occurs leading in to an earnings release, as well as protect profits (assuming the trade works out as planned, of course).
SLong
by EchoAlphaBravo
THE WEEK AHEAD: BBBY, KRE, VIXWith the trading year winding down here, I'm not keen to pile into a great number of trades, but there are a few underlyings that may be worth playing here if holiday frivolity just doesn't provide you with enough and/or you're just a hard core trading addict that has to put something on in order to satisfy your need for market engagement ... . BBBY announces earnings on 12/20 (Wednesday) after market close. With an implied volatility at the high end of its 52-week range (63-ish percent as of Friday close), it may be worth a premium-selling play. As it stands now, the Dec 29th 20.5/25.5 short strangle (~22 delta) is paying .81/contract at the mid, implying that any defined risk play (i.e., an iron condor) with that strangle as its "body" won't pay one-third the width of the wings and is therefore not worthwhile. Alternatively, the underlying is probably small enough for a short straddle, with the Dec 29th 22.5 paying 2.50 and the comparable defined risk iron fly (18.5/22.5/22.5/26.5) paying 2.08 with a max risk of 1.92/contract. For those willing to take on potential assignment risk, the Dec 29th at-the-money 22.5 pays 1.18 with a break even of 21.32 (5.5% ROC), although it may be slightly more worth it to go out to the Jan 19th expiry to take in 1.45 for the same striked short put with a break even of 20.98 (6.9% ROC) (Dec 29th implied's at 73.3% versus Jan 19th's 63.3). KRE's implied is in the top third of its range over the past 52 weeks, but I'd like the implied to be higher (26% as of Friday close; I like exchange-traded funds to be north of 35% to consider playing them). That being said, the Jan 26th 55/63 short strangle (~20 delta) is paying 1.05 at the mid with a greater than 70% probability of profit metric. As always, I've got my eye on VIX and its "little buddies," VXX, UVXY, and SVXY. While I will certainly put on short setups in VXST/VIX ratio pops to >1.00, I'm not counting on anything huge happening here volatility-wise before the end of the year. UVXY, for example, has done nothing but trundle lower to repetitive all-time lows in light of a bit of risk bleeding out of the market here with tax reform passage being painted as "pretty much a sure thing" by the end of the year. Consequently, I'll probably just confine myself to putting on my weekly long put vert, at this point in VXX, since UVXY appears doomed for a near- or sub-10 print by year-end, at which point it may become a little bit harder to work due to its size ... .
CBOE:VIX
by NaughtyPines
THE WEEK AHEAD: (WHAT THERE IS OF IT) - KRE, GDXJ, EWZ, XOP, VIXWith the shortened holiday week, I'm not expecting much out of the market in terms of volatility, so don't anticipate on putting on anything unless we get some exogenous event pop in the VIX. However, there are a few that might be worth working possible setups in: KRE (regional banks), with an implied volatility rank of 60 and an implied volatility of 22. GDXJ (junior gold miners), uber low rank, but still decent background of 27. EWZ (Brazil), 39/33. XOP (oil and gas), 36/33. I'll post trade ideas in those separately if anything looks potentially fruitful in those. With VIX trundling along here at sub-12 levels, broad market looks subdued from a volatility standpoint, something that's likely to remain in place as the Senate end of tax reform is can kicked to after the Thanksgiving holiday recess ... .
AMEX:KRE
by NaughtyPines
$XLF Is the Financial Pullback Something More? (includes video)U.S. financial stocks have been in pullback mode this week despite the SPX moving higher. Considering that financial stocks had been a big boost to market gains over the last several months, this could be concerning. The XLF is down about 3% - and regional banks KRE down 6% - since the recent top. Let's put this move into context, shall we? As MacroView as posted before, financial stocks really began to rally in early Sept just as the 10s/fed funds curve bottoms around 90 basis points. The correlation has been rather strong between .65 to .93. In our view, the curve and financials rallied on two things: markets were trying to price higher inflation (we saw this as the long-end steepened) vis-a-vie higher commodity prices. Then, markets were anticipating Pres. Trump nominating John Taylor as the next fed chair, who would be uber hawkish. We were happy to take the other side of that bet. Powell is dovish. In turn, we saw yields and copper, particularly, head lower. The 10s/fed funds rate topped out at 131 basis points and began to trade lower on the above events. Price action in XLF and KRE weakened and the pullback ensued. Click the here to listen to where support may be found and whether or not financials and the curve will rebound. Check us out on twitter @macro_view
AMEX:XLF
by MacroView_TrendFlex
58% probability trade on KRE (Strangle)Neutral trade on KRE to try and take advantage of what I think it would be two sided action between buyers and sellers. With a Implied Volatility Rank of 33, is still decent to sell a Strangle (53/57). We make money as long as the price stays between 58.77 and 51.23 in the next 49 days, so we have a buffer of around 7% up or down. This gives us a probability of profit of 58% at expiration, and 77% if we manage early (which is always the plan). The trade: Sell AUG18 53 PUT Sell AUG18 57 CALL Sold it for $1.75 per contract
AMEX:KRE
by AlexanderGotay
1
Iron Condor on KREEntered an Iron Condor in KRE (Regional Bank ETF) on June 26th to try to strangle the price between 50.00 and 56.00 for 71 cents in credit. Break even in the trade is below 49.29 and on the high side above 56.71. Two days after the trade the Fed came out passing all banks that were involved in stress tests giving them a green light to add to dividends and start buy backs. The news gaped KRE up very close to the sold call side and has fallen since into a more comfortable range. Plenty of time for this Option to play out and I will be looking to take 50% ($0.355) of the Premium as soon as possible. Original assumption was neutral, now neutral with a co-mingling of bearishness.
AMEX:KRE
by Turbo_Tech
1
No risk to the upside 80% on KRE (Jade Lizard)In the last 90 days we had a 14% down move and got rejected at the 200 EMA. We might still have more room to go to the downside, but I am betting that we are still correcting and some buyers may start to come in. With an implied volatility rank of 34 and 50 days to expiration, I sold a Jade lizard to eliminate the risk to the upside and still have room to the downside until my break even. We collected $1.12 per contract and have 81% probability of profit, our break even is at the $47.90 level. The trade: 50DTE Sell the 52 Call Buy the 53 Call Sell the 49 Put Prob of profit 81% Credit Received $1.12 per contract
AMEX:KRE
by AlexanderGotay