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KRE

No risk to the upside 80% on KRE (Jade Lizard)In the last 90 days we had a 14% down move and got rejected at the 200 EMA. We might still have more room to go to the downside, but I am betting that we are still correcting and some buyers may start to come in. With an implied volatility rank of 34 and 50 days to expiration, I sold a Jade lizard to eliminate the risk to the upside and still have room to the downside until my break even. We collected $1.12 per contract and have 81% probability of profit, our break even is at the $47.90 level. The trade: 50DTE Sell the 52 Call Buy the 53 Call Sell the 49 Put Prob of profit 81% Credit Received $1.12 per contract
AMEX:KRE
by AlexanderGotay
THE WEEK AHEAD: KRE, EWZ, GDXJWith the beginning of the next earnings season two weeks out (at least before we see something decent), I'm looking to put on some basic exchange-traded fund premium selling plays to bide my time until then. Even there, however, the premium selling opportunities aren't fantastic: KRE (Regional Banks): I haven't played this one before, but its background implied volatility is at 25%, putting it slightly above its mid-range over the past six months (it's in the 54% percentile or so). I generally like to see exchange-traded funds at >70% implied volatility percentile over the past six months and implied volatility at 35% or more, but if I abide by those metrics, I'd be totally sidelined here. (The May 19th 49/54/55/60 "nearly an" iron fly pays 2.53 at the mid with a buying power effect of 2.47; preliminary/off hours quotes). EWZ (Brazil): In spite of the fact that its implied volatility has been a good deal higher over the past six months (background implied is at 32% -- in the 28th percentile over the past six months), it still has some decent premium to be offered if you're willing to short straddle or iron fly. (The May 19th 33/37/38/42 iron fly pays 2.12 at the mid with a buying power effect of 1.88; preliminary/off hours quotes). GDXJ (Junior Gold Miners): This is one I was actually looking to play directionally off of support, but waited too long to put on the play, so now it's "nondirectional" for me or nothing. (The May 19th 30/33/40/43 iron condor pays 1.21 at the mid with a buying power effect of 1.79; preliminary/off hours quotes). VIX: With VIX, my eyeballs are always peeled for a "Term Structure" play if there isn't a pop to be had. Unfortunately, neither a pop nor a Term Structure play are to be had currently. VIX spot is at 12.4, and the first /VX futures front month that currently is >16 is September -- way too far out in time for me to put on a play (I currently still have June 17/20, and July 16/19 short call verticals on).
TVC:VIX
by NaughtyPines
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