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ridethepig | KRW Q3 Macro Flows📌 A short update here for those tracking USDKRW ... It has been a very slippery pig since the last update: Here buyers stormed into control and chose to occupy the bid protecting 1140 via Covid flows. The relieving of this profit taking has become a bit more enterprising possibly via the idiosyncratic spike in cases for the U.S. The next moves are cooked and almost ready to go... since the centralisation of EM FX has taken place, the board is forced to exchange in the same swing. Vaccine headlines are coming in from all angles, more fiscal and CB stimulus are also there for the last few days of July for markets to get stuck into. Typically we will see the ebb and flow in risk start by August, thin and choppy liquidity markets in the middle of summer make forr useful loading zones in calm waters. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
1
ridethepig | KRW 2020 Macro MapKorea's economy looks set to be forming a meaningful floor in Q4 and with a helping hand from a temporary pause in protectionism we should see KRW remain in bid for the first half of 2020. For the domestic story, Korean exports have fallen which spilt over to the demand side. With this in mind, should the USD devaluation / reflationary theme pick up pace for the first half of 1H20 it will mean repricing in KRW. On the monetary side, cuts are widely priced from BoK for January. Fundamental risks to the thesis com from US-China trade and the significance of USD devaluation. On the technicals, a textbook Steel Resistance has held at 1219.xx after completing an ABC target sequence. Very high odds a meaningful top is in place and invalidation to this count comes in above 1200. Thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, questions and etc. Another round of 2020 FX maps coming over the next few sessions. For those wanting to dig deeper with the 2020 strategies: NZDUSD USDJPY EURUSD EURSEK USDCNY
Short
by ridethepig
Bitcoin Korean Bull: Two Scenarios + Additional ChartsBitcoin’ and cryptocurrency became really famous in Korea. If you go to there, there is something that you can tell right away by interacting with the people... They are really, really smart, advanced, educated, polite and beautiful people. I believe they are ahead of the game when it comes to most other countries and their interest in Bitcoin’ is increasing massively, let's see if we can find some clues as to why is that. The Korean's are aware that Bitcoin’ has found support and is already sealing its bottom before fully reversing trend, I am saying this based on the charts. When Bitcoin’ was really hot, volume was increasing higher and higher, as soon as the top was reached and people started to sell, BTCKRW’ volume dropped massively, the Korean's got out of the market, but they came back in after mid-August, when the low was hit for most of the altcoins market, the Korean's came back into the game, see the huge incrase in volume. Side note: Notice that Bitcoin’ hit its lowest point since bull run in June and the alts in August/September. This is another common pattern we see in the cryptocurrency market. First Bitcoin’ makes the low, then the altcoins. First Bitcoin reaches the top, then the altcoins... So Bitcoin’ hit a low point from which it hasn't bounced from because of its huge marketcap, the altcoins aren't that big. Those that hit their low point already bounced and many are having, and already had, a massive run... Bitcoin’ and the altcoins are part of the same market and you can see the same patterns repeating throughout most of the charts... Let's continue. Then we have many, many signals that point to the fact that the market is gaining strength. We are even seeing eternal bears go bull, bulls sentiment changing even when the price is at its lowest for the year and bears going crazy even while they claim that Bitcoin’ is already done and gone. Two Bitcoins’ Scenarios BEAR/BULL - Which one will you choose? Let's take a look at the main two scenarios being discussed all around for Bitcoin’, a mix of the BEAR/BULL view. Many are expecting for Bitcoin’ to go down further, since hitting all time high Bitcoin’ removed 70% of its gains in less than two months. Nine months later and Bitcoin’ hasn't lost a single percentage more of value. In fact, the price is higher than the low reached in February. It would be wise to assume that if an eternal downtrend were to happen, then Bitcoin’ would still be going down rather than sideways with higher lows being created for the past 4+ months, specially if Bitcoin’ were to go really low, in the $3,000 range. But what about a Flash Crash? This is the part that I wanted to talk about... A flash crash can happen and does happen frequently in crypto before a trend change, but here is the catch, we don't care about it a single bit. A flash crash normally is fueled by fear and only last a few hours to a few days or max weeks. With Bitcoin’ sitting at a support that bears can't seen to break, any strong pressure down will end up in a bounce. But when it comes to the bulls, the advantage is best. Any pressure up can completely change the trend. For up, we have plenty of room available for growth. For down, it is exhausted all the way. So instead of going short and expecting a $1000 - $2000 drop that might not happen and if it does only last a few hours or days, why not go long and expect 100% growth and more along the way? When fear, doubt and despair sets in, it is time to buy up. When the buy euphoria is at an all time high, that's the time to sell your coins... Not at the bottom, but when the price is fully green, a bunch of long green candles... when the long wicks at the top show up... That's the sell point. Time to buy Bitcoin... For as long as the bottom holds. Once you are down... the only place left to go is up. Let's take a look a few more charts that support perspective of upcoming Bitcoin growth: BTC NOVEMBER HISTORICALLY BULLISH + FULL ANALYSIS BITCOIN ASCENDING CHANNEL: THE TREND IS YOUR FRIEND HAPPY BIRTHDAY BITCOIN (10 YEARS ANYVERSSARY) Bitcoin Retraces Hits Oversold - 4H [TIME TO BUY BITCOIN Thanks a lot for the support. If you enjoyed this post, please like, share, comment and follow. Namaste.
Long
by AlanSantana
19
DIGITAL ALPHA UPDATE - What the ICX happened yesterday?!?What is up everyone, hope you are having an awesome day. This post is a follow up on the epic ICX (non) breakout yesterday. We were watching ICX very closely yesterday and never saw the ABCDE/triangle breakout we were expecting. BTC/USD saw some profit taking and was overbought (Stoch RSI indicator with the purple line on the bottom the screen), the dip resulted in a quick exit out of many alts yesterday. That is the market. When BTC dips, alts dip faster. When BTC pumps, alts stay stagnant. When BTC goes sideways, alts have fun. When BTC goes north of $12.5k, alts party (see medium article for details). We are also following up on that article yesterday because ICX/BTC is only 50-75% the market (big range because varies day to day). ICX/KRW makes up the rest with 25-50% of the volume. Almost all of that volume is on Bithumb. WOW. That must mean ICX is making up a ton of volume on Bithumb itself...wait, what!?! 1%? 1%!!! WHAT! Yes, ICX only makes up 1% of the daily volume on Bithumb. About $7M USD. The top 3 currencies for Bithumb are EOS, XRP, BTC and all are around $100-300M in volume. Theoretically, if ICX jumped up over $100M in daily volume, we will see life pumped back into ICON. To give you an idea, ICX is about $35M of daily volume, right now. Go ahead and add a 0 to that figure and see what happens. This is a sleeping giant. Forget about finding the perfect entry in terms of cents. This is a hold in our Large-Cap portfolio. If you bought yesterday before the drop, you are good to go. If you have not, this chart is showing a nice entry point. Green circles are showing a breaching of the bollinger bands. The price rose afterwards each time for the past two weeks. RSI indicator on the bottom looks good, bollinger band is breached, and fundamentals are there for ICX. This is a long-term hold for our portfolio. Comment if you have any questions, good luck out there! - DA Bull
Long
by DIGITAL-ALPHA