Kumba
Kumba Iron Ore new Cup and Handle showing major upside to R686.3Cup and Handle has formed aver the last year.
Price broke above the brim level but then moved sideways. During the time it was making higher lows which is bullish by nature, but we haven't had the push we need.
Hence, the price is retesting the Brim which is forming a conservative entry for breakout traders.
7>21>200 - Bullish
RSI>50 - Bullish
Target R686.33
Kumba moving down after a strong upward moveAfter a very successful long position (link attached below), JSE:KIO has bounced off of the strong resistance level at around 67000 and seems to be on the way down. This is being confirmed by our momentum indicators, the stochastic, MACD and potentially the EMA's with today's move. If it confirms, potentially, we could go down to around 58000 - 59000 area.
Kumba - Double BottomJSE:KIO has formed a double bottom with the last couple of days' movement. A doji formed on the 29th of October followed by a hammer candle which can be both seen as reversal signs. The double bottom, candle patterns, MACD and stochastic are all pointing upwards, so I will consider a long position if it trades higher.
KUMBA - upward momentumJSE:KIO is heading upward for a long position. The MACD, Stochastic and EMA's are all showing confirmation for a move to the upside. This coupled with the fact that it has recently made 2 higher lows and fails to break lower, could mean a nice move upwards to the previous resistance level.
KIO - Short IdeaI'm not a big fan of going against the trend but this weekly candle plus the point of resistance just seems too good. A close on the daily below R550 triggers the short trade with a stop loss above a close of R580. Targets are R525 and R475. Worth noting that a weaker ZAR and stronger commodities price may turn this trade around so keeping an eye on those fundamental plays will be key for this trade to work out or fail.
$JSEKIO Kumba could reverse soonKeep a close eye on Kumba Iron ore around current levels. Two important inflection points are of interest to me:
(1) The stock has been quite sticky around the 200 day moving average (green line) in the recent past. The 200 day moving average often becomes support and resistance for the stock. (as indicated by the green blocks) Currently the stock seems to be consolidating around the 200 day moving average and i would expect a top to form around these levels.
(2) Most importantly, the declining trend-line joining the tops since July 2019 comes in at these levels. Stock is currently resisting off this trend-line.
In addition, volume has tapered off on the rise which doesn't instill to much confidence in the move higher. The Relative Strength Indicator has not managed to break above the RSI 63 level since October 2019 and is also currently resisting once again.
Putting all of the above together, I would favor Kumba Iron Ore retreating from current levels. Look to short between R370-R380, using a stop loss as a close above R390. Target on the downside: R305.
JSEKIO - KUMBA Short setup- Price is at a major resistance level
- Bear flag has developed
- Closed wih an indecision candle (spinning top)
- For a less risky entry, wait for the close below the flag on the daily
- R:R is 1>2
- MANAGE YOUR RISK -
Disclaimer: All ideas are my opinion and should not be taken as financial advice.
JSE:KIO
$JSEKIO Kumba iron ore - has this rally gone too far too soon?Haven't called this stock too well this year, however after the magnificent rally we have seen of late, the stock may have gone too far too soon. Firstly if you look at purely the candlestick formation after today's trade, we are possibly witnessing the formation of an evening star reversal formation (tbc tomorrow). Secondly, we are starting to see volume evaporate on the move higher which is a possible clue that buyers are no longer interested in chasing price at such levels. Thirdly, we are starting to see some bearish divergence on the RSI (price has made higher high, not confirmed by a lower high in the RSI indicator). Watch for a possible reversal here. Price very very extended from major moving averages, so consolidation/correction very likely from here.. Would hope to see at least R400 on a shorter term pull back