Get started

Kuroda

ridethepig | JPY Market Commentary 2020.04.15A good time to update the USDJPY chart as things are changing very quickly. Here you will notice risk-sentiment starting to take another turn for the worse, meaning we are again entering into a very advanced playing field and a short-term nimble approach is pragmatic and necessary to survive at these levels. The relentless stream of bad news on the virus front keeps coming and another round of bankruptcies looks set to take charge across the board…. It is entering into the picture as lockdowns in Europe and US look set to extend till June/July which will squeeze Small & Medium sized firms that wont be able to survive for much more than a couple weeks. A few of scenarios we need to track on the Fundamental side: 1️⃣ Bullish Case - Northern Hemisphere curve flattening with US and Europe opening early June. Will trigger direct legs back towards all time highs across the board in Equities. ( 22% odds ) 2️⃣ Inline Case - US and Europe opening in July with clear preparations for further rounds of social distancing programs that will come into play again at year-end through Q1 2021 as the virus migrates back in the Winter months. Opens up another calculated leg down in risk markets to sweep the current floor in place and early buyers. ( 64% odds ) 3️⃣ Bearish Case - How fast the consumer comes back and managing these expectations is the one to track and it boils down to whether people have the confidence to return to hotels, travel, shops, bars, restaurants etc… If ‘business as usual’ does not return as masses remain afraid then we can enter into a depression ( 14% odds ) For the technical flows ... over the coming session all eyes are on the key 107.0x support !! ... After it managed to hold todays London and NY sessions it is screaming loudly that USD demand remains prevalent and shows no signs of abating. Initial targets over the coming sessions at 108.3x and 109.3x, to the downside invalidation of the view will come from a breach of 106.9x as it will trigger a momentum move that is also very tradable towards 104.5x. We will have fresh round of DXY and other G10 chart updates coming tomorrow, highly recommend all digging into the details of the flows as the ranges are very wide. Thanks as usual for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, charts and etc!
Long
by ridethepig
2
ridethepig | JPY Market Commentary 2020.03.04For risk markets, historic times with US10Y breaking through 1.00, the 50bp cut is really sends ⚠️ signals that things are not as healthy as they made out as ECB insist they have no room to follow the Fed. Buckle up and remain defensive guys, I am adding USDJPY shorts on the day with targets 106.9x and 106.5x below. Stops needed to be above 107.9x. For those tracking the 2020 macro map: It is clear the macro map was short-circuited by the USD spike to mark a medium and long term high in DXY. As usual guys thanks for keeping the likes and comments coming, jump into the discussion below for the intraday.
Short
by ridethepig
ridethepig | JPY Market Commentary 2020.03.02Risk markets are starting to form a temporary floor via BOJ stepping in and suture the wound. Volatility is set to remain high for the coming days, Asian stocks finding a bid from the usual dip buyers while USDJPY has started to bounce from last week’s move. Looking to sell any rallies into 109.2x as we have not seen the end of the storm in currencies yet. Historically intervention will occur on Wednesday... look to buy rallies into 109.2x for another selling opportunity! As usual thanks for all those keeping the support coming with likes, comments, charts and etc!
Long
by ridethepig
ridethepig | JPY Market Commentary 2020.02.26On the risk side, US10Y bouncing from the lows while Global Equities attempt to form a s/t floor. Central Bank co-ordinated policy is only a matter of time, markets have forced FED, ECB, BOC, BOJ, BOE and everything in-between to kiss the hand and keep rate cuts on the table. JPY is itching to resume dancing the same rhythm but given USD demand via month end rebalancing there will be room to sell USDJPY from cheaper levels later in the week. Look to fade any rallies into 110.7x with initial targets located at 110.3x and 109.8x. Invalidation of the view comes with a breach of 111.2x. Thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, charts and etc!
Short
by ridethepig
2
ridethepig | JPY Losing It's "Haven" Status...Highlights of the week going to USDJPY exploding to the topside and catching many with their pants down (myself included). In times of extreme panic even the USD can outperform JPY as a safe haven currency. Japanese economy is coughing badly in all data fronts and considering the geographical location relative to the virus it makes it hard to find reasons to park capital there for the forseeable future. Combining all of this with the technical break of 110.3x which was strong resistance and cascaded macro stops, simply, technicals only added fuel to the fundamental fire. The monthly chart in USDJPY is looking very bullish indeed, with targets up at 149.xx .. this chart is not looking so crazy after all: The same 'E' leg that we traded live together: Most of the sell-side flows in USDJPY were built around coronavirus risk-off sentiment - I recommend bookmarking this breakup as it seems we are dislocating from the traditional JPY safe haven environment. Picking up cheap tactical longs on the day at 111.25 ideally with initial targets located at 111.8x and 112.2x before trailing for the breakup. Thanks as usual for keeping your support coming with likes, comments and etc!
Long
by ridethepig
1
ridethepig | JPY Spot Commentary 2020.02.04Risk markets recovering, well done all those who voted to buy the dip overnight in the Asian bounce. PBOC suturing the wound (for now). On the macro side, strong data from the US manufacturing side should be taken with a pinch of salt as was helped massively via phase 1 and too soon to measure any viral impact. Flow wise, I noticed a lot of fast money clients buying JPY offshore which is reassuring for my shorts. On the Daily chart we are still yet to break through Support : I am looking to add more at 109.2x with initial targets at 108.8x and 108.3x on the day. No one wanting to fight alone against the USD devaluation, sellers are ready to beat the living daylight out of late buyers. Don't forget we can comfortably lean on the 2020 Macro flows for USDJPY: Good luck all those on the sell side, a lot of meat left on the bone and we can open up the short-term flows if we get enough interest in the comments below. As usual thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, charts and etc!
Short
by ridethepig
2
ridethepig | USDJPY 2020 Flows (Updated)On the risk front, the WHO signalling for a national emergency and markets are not taking it well. The risk-off moves should continue with USDJPY a good benchmark for reference. I am holding shorts and was adding on Friday as nothing suggest any reason to cover although we had month end flows in play which made things tricky as participants were timid. To the downside we can target soft support at 108.4x and 108.2x while 110.7x remains strong resistance so keeping stops above there if you plan to play the entire macro swing down in 2020 flows: This idea is no less imaginative than the diagram here: Even with yield advantage over JGBs I expect risk to control the flows in particular as we get close to US elections providing a choppy zig zag. There will be good demand for USDJPY below 105 (as Japanese investors have been riding the pig overseas) so look to take partial profits on the way, 100 remains my final target in the flow. Best of luck all those in USDJPY and positioning for the remaining 2020 flows - you can see other strategies below! As usual thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, questions, charts and etc!
Short
by ridethepig
7
ridethepig | JPY Spot Commentary 2020.01.23USDJPY with important updates from the overnight Asian session. A technical break of the key 109.7x that we have been tracking has opened up the downside. Holding shorts and selling rallies remains my favoured play, all levels remain the same 109.7x broken support, 109.2x initial targets, 107.6x and 106.6x extensions. While to the topside reassessment needed above 102.3. The struggle for liberation has been carried out, sellers have taken control in the jurisdiction and should continue the attack on support. The elimination of the channel base (breakout it out) from the swing, afterwards targets should be directed and aimed at the new 2020 swing: For the rest of the flows, the key level in play is 109.7x now to the topside. This has been clearly broken and with no one wanting to fight alone against the USD devaluation, sellers are ready to beat the living daylight out of late buyers! Good luck all those on the sell side, a lot of meat left on the bone and we can open up the short-term flows if we get enough interest in the comments below. As usual thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, charts and etc!
Short
by ridethepig
ridethepig | JPY Market Commentary 2020.01.06On the risk front, JPY demand running out of steam from the initial knee-jerk via Iran tensions and asking for a squeeze. I am tracking 108.6x on the day to add to my shorts. Targets below are located at 107.3x support while stops can be kept comfortably above 108.9x resistance. JPY inflows will continue to come via risk as long as BOJ remains on hold and warrants increasing bearish exposure. After clearing first targets in the initial 2020 swing: Thanks for keeping the likes and comments coming, as usual jump into the conversation with your charts and questions!
Short
by ridethepig
7
ridethepig | USDJPY 2020 Macro MapOn the USD side, we have dollar devaluation in play via Fed flooding the supply side and marking the monthly highs in Dollar: On the JPY side, I am looking for an eventful year on the risk front. Japan will benefit in search of safety with late cycle fears only temporarily abating: On the technical side, for those in a background with waves and wanting to dig deeper into the legs we are trading: Even with yield advantage over JGBs I expect risk to control the flows in particular as we get close to US elections providing a choppy zig zag. There will be good demand for USDJPY below 105 (as Japanese investors have been riding the pig overseas) so look to take partial profits on the way, 100 remains my final target in the flow. Best of luck all those in USDJPY and positioning for 2020 flows - you can see other strategies below! Thanks for supporting with a like and keeping your ideas and views coming in the comments!
Short
by ridethepig
4
ridethepig | JPY Market Commentary 2019.12.30In this thesis the USD devaluation is playing the main role for 1H20, risk flows will join the party in 2H20 and as you know by now flows with both fundamentals and technicals behind it can be considered to be on solid foundations. Let us compare the USDJPY with a recently published chart. Then the US capital outflows were expected to do the heavy lifting: In the next diagram let us imagine the channel highs had broken and resistance was cracked - then the flows would be invalidated and closed (the capital would have exhausted). In this case, the highs held as anticipated, there follows large offers from smart money pinging out price and sending loud signals that the move is not weak - how can anything be weak if it cannot be broken? Or imagine this next diagram with a before and after the fact instead. Now there is no question we were still looking for sells and expecting large hands to defend. This is painfully felt by retail after the breakup move... although bulls achieved nothing and could not hold the stops, whereas with those sharp enough to sell above the highs are fading the exuberance and at least in this example we are crippling the opposition backward for a certain length of time enough to eliminate risk: For those wanting to track Gold in the background with Santanomics in full swing: Thanks for keeping the likes and comments coming, as usual jump into the conversation with your charts and questions!
Short
by ridethepig
1
ridethepig | USDJPY Market Commentary 2019.11.26Here we are trading USDJPY at the highs in the range with macro risk-off themes still remaining in play and unchanged despite how the local news is selling the extended bull market. On the monetary side, BOJ clearly have their hands tied with the ECB/FED coordination. To put simply, any BoJ easing will follow ECB/FED which will be positive JPY via risk factors. On the rate differential sides, UST and JGB continue the decline which still indicates lower USDJPY. Here I am tracking for the leg towards 100 and beyond as USD devaluation kicks in. On the technical side, tracking 109.0x steel resistance with 107.0x support holding the key to unlocking the swing towards 100.xx. Good luck all those holding $JPY ... a very interesting environment as we enter into year-end.
Short
by ridethepig
Central Bank Week Results, OECD Forecasts and Pound GrowthFollowing the Fed, the Banks of Japan, Switzerland and England announced their decisions on the parameters of monetary policies. They keep interest rate steady. Accordingly, there were no large movements in the pound, yen and franc parities. Although it is worth noting some strengthening of the yen following the Bank of Japan decision. Kuroda (the head of the Bank of Japan) noted that the Central Bank supports the expansion of monetary incentives. So the global trend towards easing monetary policies may continue. Based on the results, our trading recommendations are unchanged. We will continue to sell the dollar primarily against the yen and the British pound. We will also sell the euro against the yen. As for the pound, its fate will depend entirely on the outcome of the Brexit negotiations. We are still looking for a positive outcome, therefore, recommend buying the British pound. Moreover, yesterday the pound against the dollar rose to the highest levels since July 2019. This happened after the comments of the European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker appeared that the Brexit deal could well be concluded before October 31. in the light Gold purchases continue to be relevant. Concern among investors yesterday updated OECD forecasts on the world economic growth rates were added. The organization lowered its estimates to 2.9% from 3.2%. OECD also warned that exit without a deal would provoke a recession in the UK economy. Speaking of the UK economy. Retail sales came out worse than expected -0.2% m/m (forecast was 0%). But once again we emphasize that the fate of the pound is now decided not by economic data, but by Brexit. Yesterday, data on the real estate market in the United States was published and again the data significantly exceeded experts' forecasts: sales of existing homes in August increased by + 1.3% m/m (forecast was -0.7%).
Long
by Trade24Fx
2
Selling EUR against JPYAfter some positive news from Moody’s last Friday on Italy the headlines are starting to fade making this morning a great opportunity to start getting short EURUSD and EURJPY around current levels. The ECB introduced a risk premium on the EUR which is only going to increase as the EZ outlook softens. I like playing EUR against pockets of USD strength as we have the possibility for renewed pricing on Fed hikes in the picture and JPY via fiscal year-end repatriation flows. Best of luck to those trading Euro live this week
Short
by ridethepig
8
Big Possible Short Position on USDJPYBig possible short position on FX:USDJPY this pair is showing something else that numbers doesn't match in the equation, this is a warn issue to consider, 'cause seems to be hard for the pair do what it has to do, that's why I draw a vertical line in case of price should touch that levels into that period of time. In case it doesn't we may see a big impact news like a war or something else. I'll keep an eye on this pair, but on TVC:USOIL and FX_IDC:XAUUSD too, because they are following other kind of structures and levels in the wrong time. Have a good Trading Week... Cream Live Trading, Cheers!
Short
by wildcreamlife
PPC/USD analysisroadmap for the next four months or so keep crankin those rates yellen! if the fed starts reducing the balance sheet faster than expected, the markets would capitulate. in any case crypto seems a good bet given draghi and kuroda literally cannot stop printing money. inflation will hit us eventually, probably 2019-2020. then we'll have transitioned to an era of pure fiat, which money has historically been within consensual communities. only a matter of time until the fed has to do a 180 and provide helicopter money to the economy, bitcoin/gold's price action seem to predicate such an event.
PLong
by pjlbtv
USDJPY Epic Descending Triangle Breakdown ImminentOANDA:USDJPY has consolidated for a few days already and failed to retake the 112 level. With a series of lower highs, the supply resistance level is slowly going down to meet with the Weekly 200MA support. Its possible it might find support at the Daily 200MA level as it was able bounce off it from the previous downleg. In my opinion it might still test the 111 level one more time before the support finally breaks. Entry: 111.044 Profit: 108.215 Stop: 111.325 Any feedbacks are appreciated!
Short
by SimpleMillennialAverage
2