USDZMW (Where do we go from here?)So I have been privately analyzing USDZMW since 2015 and this idea of the USDZMW was created in 2021 after the elections(SEE BLUE HIGHLIGHTED PERIOD from 09 Nov 20 to 16 Aug 2021). Make of it what you will but the 29.71 price range if achieved could spell uncertainty. We have been in an up trend for the majority of the time and the drop from 22 to 16 seemed to have been a consolidation area that was eventually broken out of and rejected for a powerful breakout that brought us to 26. Now we have experience a small consolidaiton and it breaks out and upward it will achieve our 29.71 target.
Kwacha
USDZMW/Technical AnalysisWe might see a strong buy side liquidity on USD/ZMW, W formation formed on Monthly Time Frame after price hit our MTG at k15 which is likely to head back to k22.50 Zone, it has also broken another liquidity zone (OB) at k19.28 meaning that we still have a strong bullish run, Price might be heading back to fill the VOID from the heavy sell liquidity we had from July 2021 - August 2021.
Kwacha is yet to depreciate drastically till proper Fundamental and Economic Policies are put in place.
USDZMW SHORT Market traded straight back into the monthly supply zone. Even though this trade idea is about a short back to 15 it will generally take a whole lot of fundamentals to play in favor of ZMW. I personally expect market to stabilize in this zone. Market closing above 22.6 on the monthly Time Frame is not what we want to see as it would trickle to market creating new highs ...... FX_IDC:USDZMW
#supply&demandtrading
My thoughts on USDZMWCurrently, the Zambian kwacha is facing several challenges that are impacting its value in the foreign exchange market. One of the main factors is the high inflation rate, which has been driven by a surge in food and fuel prices. In addition, the country's external debt has been on the rise, and this has led to a decline in investor confidence. These factors, combined with a slowdown in economic growth, have put pressure on the Kwacha's exchange rate. While it's difficult to predict the future movements of the currency, my technical view is that it could take another year before the Kwacha drops below K15 due to the technical factors at play.
Kwacha is back (almost)Now this is by no means financial advice but mere analysis. When I saw price break the Daily Support at 17.63 , my immediate anticipation was we’re going lower.
Depending on what happens today at the Daily Support & Resistance (16.95) I believe it will reject and hold around that area for a while or it could right off break through and right for 16.4
TIME TO BUY THE KWACHAI think it's time to short the dollar and buy some Kwacha.
Price perfectly bounced off the 200% fib level (K18.94 / $1) on the monthly time frame matching up the same price at 261.8% fib level on the weekly time frame.
Going long term, I am seeing a week dollar and some Kwacha appreciation.
I expected the Kwacha to appreciate to about K17/$1 and K15.41/$1 IF price breaks through the support of the monthly ascending channel .
Disclaimer: This is only an idea and should not be taken as a trading signal.