Get started

Kylemcquade

AUD/JPY - Bullish BatHi guys, here's another one to add to the watch list! This time I'm eyeing ups potential bullish bat on the Aussie-Yen. The Yen has managed to gain some strength across the board already today, but with this pair in particular price has recently formed into a ranging environment on the 4 hour chart. With this in mind, I will be keeping an eye on the 4 hour chart specifically for a reversal signal. As always risk should be minimum 1:2, but with pattern we should ideally be looking for 1:3. Bat Ratios B = 0.382-0.5 C = 0.382-0.886 D = 1.618-2.618 X to D = 0.886
Long
by KyleMcQuade
XAG/USD - Bearish ButterflyWhat's up traders. Looking at another bearish position today, this time we have a butterfly formation on silver against the dollar. The price of silver has been moving sidewards for over a year now and we are starting to see price become very compressed. The daily chart is sowing price being squeezed into a triangle formation (the high of which is set around the same area. As you can see price has began to drop slightly although it didn't exactly hit our PRZ at the 1.272 extension. The reversal signal came in the form of a bearish engulfing candle- unfortunately the close of this candle was too low for me and had too great an impact on the pattern's risk:reward. Should price push back and re-test this area we should then be looking for an entry. Again we will be using our 0.382 and 0.618 levels as our TP levels whilst keeping our risk:reward as close to 1:3 as possible. Butterfly ratios are as follows: B = 0.786 C = 0.382-0.886 D = 1.618-2.24 X to D = 1.272
OANDA:XAGUSDShort
by KyleMcQuade
8
CAD/JPY - Bearish Gartley Hey guys, back on the charts this week! Today I am looking at a bearish Gartley position on the cad-yen. Oil has been rallying since June last year and is currently at a point of making a higher low. Should this turn out to be a level of resistance rather than just a higher low then we may see further decline for the value of the Canadian Dollar. Furthermore we are also awaiting this month's release of the Japanese interest rate, which is expected to remain at -0.1%. Their trade balance is also expected to have dropped by 219B. With this pair we can clearly see on the daily chart that price has made created a new low, finding support before bouncing. We are now at a point where we are creating a lower high and testing a level where we have had previous support. As a result, this may be a key area to scope a short entry. On this occasion our risk:reward will likely be 1:2 as we are trading the Gartlery pattern- the entry points noted may be subject to change as per price action. We will also be using our 2 levels for TP1 and TP2 at the 0.382 and 0.618 levels respectively. Gartley ratios are as follows: B: 0.618 C: 0.382 - 0.886 D: 1.272 - 1.618 X-D: 0.786
Short
by KyleMcQuade
GBP/AUD - Bullish AB=CDHappy Monday traders, the market is open! This week I am looking at a potential AB=CD pattern on the GBP/AUD. With this pattern our retracement falls between 0.5 and 0.618- specifically 0.567. Technically this is slightly closer to the latter, which would give us an ideal extension of 0.618. A 0.5 retracement would give us a preferred extension of 0.2, so I have drawn up both levels to provide you with a better visual of the potential reversal zone. Originally drawn on the 4 hour chart, the angle of our extension from C to D is identical to that of the AB wave. The timescale of the wave are also very similar with only 4 candles between them! When looking at price as a percentage, our original drop from A to B is 3.22%, while the projected extension comes in at 3.32%. AB=CD patterns should be as symmetrical as possible- however rarely perfect, we keep them as close as we can! Our PRZ lands on a level where price has turned from resistance to support which can be seen clearly across the 4 hour and daily charts! (see below). Price is currently entering a level where our weekly chart saw consolidation before continuing its bull run back in 2014. This is definitely an area to watch the GBP across all pairs! Looking ahead into this week and next week we have the AUD trade balance being released, as well as GBP CPI and GDP. As per usual the consensus is generally already priced in already, but we should be conscious of any surprises in the announced figures. AB=CD ratios are as follows: C: 0.382-0.886 D: 1.13-2.618 Risk with this trade will be at 3:1 and I will update as the pattern progresses!
Long
by KyleMcQuade
1
EUR/AUD - Bullish Gartley Hey guys! Looking on the 4 hour chart (borderline daily), we can clearly see a potential bullish Gartley formation. Our pattern is forming at a level where price is testing daily support, resistance which has recently been broken. Price is also just approaching a trend line which has already been tested twice on its current bull run. (see below) Looking towards next week, we are expecting the EURO CPI and Trade Balance, followed quickly by the AUD Employment Change. Taking this into consideration, price may get volatile as price either tests or breaks this new level of support. I will update as the position progresses! Gartley ratios are as follows: B: 0.618 C: 0.382 - 0.886 D: 1.272 - 1.618 X-D: 0.786
Long
by KyleMcQuade
2
USD/JPY Bearish BatWhat's up traders!? Following my previous idea, here is another position which favours a bullish Japanese Yen. The Japanese adjusted trade balance is expecting this evening at 00:50 GMT+1, with a positive consensus of 610 Billion higher than the previous release of 1.03 Trillion. My decision to take the trade will depend on the release later this evening, but will obviously be built around what we see on the chart! Looking at the weekly chart, this level has historically at time been a level of support and resistance where price has sharply reversed (see below!) Bat ratios are as follows: B = 0.382-0.5 C = 0.382-0.886 D = 1.618-2.618 X to D = 0.886 Risk with this trade would be at 3:1 and will be updated as the trade progresses. I will advise when I take an entry, if I decide to do so. See my CAD/JPY idea below, based on the same announcement!
Short
by KyleMcQuade
1
Cad/JPY Bearish CypherHey guys, today I'm looking at a couple of position on the JPY. The Japanese adjusted trade balance is expecting this evening at 00:50 GMT+1, with a positive consensus of 610 Billion higher than the previous release of 1.03 Trillion. With this in mind I have decided that it wouldn't be a bad idea to look at the potential entries in advance. The Cypher pattern here forms at a level of daily resistance where price has previously acted as support (see below). Cypher ratios are as follows: B = 0.382-0.618 C = 1.272-1.414 X to D = 0.786 Risk is at 2:1 and will be adjusted as the trade develops! I will update as time progresses.
Short
by KyleMcQuade
1
Platinum - Bullish BatWhat's up guys, here's a setup I've been looking at for a while. I'm not a position trader- I don't like to hold trades for any longer than a couple of weeks max. That aside, I have saw this pattern coming for almost 2 months since the B level was broken (one could have BAMM'd it!) Here we have a bullish bat formation on platinum. The support level where the pattern falls has not been broken since 2016, and even that was brief. Since the chart in front of us began back in 2006 price has not been below the current support level for any longer than one month. For a precious metal of which there is less than one swimming pool on earth, price seems to be pretty low. This my prove to be a reasonable level for anyone looking to hold platinum long term. Bat Ratios B = 0.382-0.5 C = 0.382-0.886 D = 1.618-2.618 X to D = 0.886
OANDA:XPTUSDLong
by KyleMcQuade
EUR/AUD ShortHey guys, hereI'm looking at a potential bearish position on EUR/AUD. Price has entered into a zone of monthly support/resistance. Price may become volatile as we look towards the ECB and RBA both releasing their interest rates within the next 2 weeks. The Euro and Aud will both be currencies to watch- it'll be good to see how these to battle it out! I'll be keeping an eye on this pair and looking for a possible entry. Bat Ratios B = 0.382-0.5 C = 0.382-0.886 D = 1.618-2.618 X to D = 0.886
Short
by KyleMcQuade
USD/CAD - Bearish 5-0Continuing with the majors before moving onto the crosses, I am monitoring a bearish 5-0 on the USD/CAD. Even without the harmonic ratios, price has made a clear head and shoulders, broken the neckline and is now re-testing the neckline as resistance. As per usual with a bearish 5-0 pattern, I will be on the looking for any reversal candles (hanging men/bearish engulfing) before price reaches the 0.618 retracement level of the previous wave. Next week, Tuesday 1st of May, we will see the release of Canadian GDP data. This announcement can be very volatile so the trade must be managed effectively- I will give further updates as this move progresses. 5-0 Ratios B = 1.13-1.618 C = 1.618-2.24 D = 0.5
Short
by KyleMcQuade
1
AUD/USD Bullish Shark Hey traders, looks like there is potentially ample trading opportunities heading into this week. Here's the first of my charting from over the weekend. First I'm looking at a bullish shark formation of the AUD/USD. Price has been charted on the 1 hour for greater detail of movement, but I will be looking for a sign of reversal from the current price level on the 4 hour chart. Price seems to have found good support on the 4 hour and daily chart, whilst also entering into a key support/resistance zone on the weekly chart (see below). This week (London Time) we are seeing the Australian Consumer Price Index release early Tuesday morning (2% consensus) and US GDP figures on Friday afternoon. I believe consensus may already be written into the market, but of course any upset in the release data will cause imbalance in the market so this may be one to watch! Shark ratios are as follows: C = 1.13-1.618 D = 1.618-2.24 X to D = 0.886-1.13 This trade should have 1:3 risk, with your SL below the area of support (detailed below also).
Long
by KyleMcQuade
EUR/NZD Bearish CypherHappy Friday everyone, Just before the market closes for the weekend I am eyeing up this potential short. Heading into next week I will be monitoring this pair on the 4 hour chart to look for an ideal reversal candle (hanging man, shooting star or bearish engulfing). This pair may become volatile on Tuesday 26/04 as a result of the European Central Bank's decision rate. French Finance Minister, Bruno Le Maire, this week described ECB interest rates as 'clouds'. This can be taken in many ways however, since price has broken the weekly trend line and began to consolidate on the daily timeframe at a level of resistance, I don't mind looking for a potential short position should the correct candles arise. The ideal reversal candle I am looking for may come after price has surpassed my stop loss- in which case I will not take a trade, but know that price is currently in an area where a reversal is possible. The weekly trend line has broken after hitting resistance at 1.7481 (the highest price has been since 2016) back in December. Since then the daily time frame has made a lower high and re-tested the 1.71 area several times (see below). Since the last re-test of this level, price has also made a lower low. This may indicate loss of faith in the Euro before further decline or continuous consolidation. Cypher ratios B = 0.382-0.618 C = 1.272-1.414 X to D = 0.786 Risk as always is at 1:2 minimum (most commonly with the cypher pattern).
Short
by KyleMcQuade
U.S. Oil - Bearish SharkHey guys, here we have another bearish shark on our hands. Similarly to the GBP/USD trade, the daily chart has found resistance and is re-testing in the form of a double top. Within the re-test we can find a bearish shark formation. Price has already hit our D point but I am now monitoring the 4 hour and 1 hour charts for an entry. I'm currently simultaneously monitoring U.S. Oil and the Canadian Dollar. The value of the Canadian Dollar relies heavily upon the value of oil since this is their main export, so should the value of oil drop, the CAD more often than not follows suit. There's currently a potential bullish 3-drives on the USD/CAD (see below) which, indicating a weaker Canadian Dollar, would compliment this setup on Oil. Another idea containing full analysis will be posted for the 3-drives. Shark ratios are as follows: C = 1.13-1.618 D = 1.618-2.24 X to D = 0.886-1.13
OANDA:WTICOUSDShort
by KyleMcQuade
GBP/CAD - Bullish Bat In addition to the bearish GBP/USD trade, I am also looking at a potential long position on the GBP/CAD. Again this trade may be heavily influenced by the announcement of next week's British CPI release- also by the BoC interest rate decision on 18/04,followed by the Canadian CPI release the following day. Price has recently broken weekly resistance. The bullish bat is essentially retesting that level now as support (see below). I will mainly be watching the 4 hour chart for my entry. Risk:Reward at 1:3. Bat Ratios B = 0.382-0.5 C = 0.382-0.886 D = 1.618-2.618 X to D = 0.886
Long
by KyleMcQuade
GBP/USD - Bearish SharkGood day traders! This week I'm looking at a potential bearish shark formation on the GBP/USD. This trade will be heavily influenced by next week's British CPI release on 18/04. No general consensus for this announcement has been settled upon yet, but I believe this consensus will make or break the pattern. This will definitely be one to watch in the coming week! The daily chart is entering into an area where we have had previous support turn to resistance and the pattern at hand is forming within the second test of a potential double top! Lets keep an eye on this and see where it takes us. Shark ratios: C = 1.13-1.618 D = 1.618-2.24 X to D = 0.886-1.13
Short
by KyleMcQuade
GBP/CHF Bearish SharkOver the next few days I'll be keeping an eye on this bearish setup on the Pound-Franc. Looking at the structure of the daily chart you can see were consecutive higher highs and higher lows have previously been made. We were now at a stage where price has ultimately ran out of steam and made a lower low (see below). Following the lower low we are witnessing the possible formation of a harmonic bat pattern on the 4 hour chart. Combining this with the structure of the higher timeframe, this may be the re-test of daily resistance- a double top on the 4hr. Furthermore, the Bank of England's interest rate will be released on Thursday 23rd of March. The rate is highly expected by most parties to remain at 0.5%, however these releases are known to bring extreme volatility to the foreign exchange markets so we will be very cautious. This announcement, and its impact, may well make or break this set up. I will be updating this further should I be looking to enter the position. Ideally this will not happen before the rate is released. All this aside, the rules stay the same. Shark Ratios are as follows: C = 1.13-1.618 D = 1.618-2.24 X to D = 0.886-1.13 Risk at a minimum of 1:2 4-hour and daily candlesticks will be monitored in the aftermath of the rate announcement. Watch this space!
Short
by KyleMcQuade
EUR/AUD Bearish BatWhat's up traders, hope everyone had a good week! Following my last set up on this pair (see below) I am now looking at a potential short position using the bat formation, using the resistance from the failed high of the previous shark pattern. It is not often that we take a contradicting position after a successful trade, but in this instance the structure of the pattern is almost perfect. Price is very overbought and it looks like we may be entering a consolidating/ranging market following the pair's bull run since the beginning of 2018. Of course, this will depend on what the candle sticks tell us. I will be watching the 1-hour and 4-hour charts very closely for a potential reversal. Ideally risk in this case will be 1:3. Bat Ratios B = 0.382-0.5 C = 0.382-0.886 D = 1.618-2.618 X to D = 0.886
Short
by KyleMcQuade
3
EUR/AUD - Bullish SharkHi guys! Looking at the week ahead there are several potential setups on my watchlist. One of which is this bullish position on the EUR/AUD. Using the shark formation, price has already entered our PRZ whilst testing a strong level of daily support! Since this level has been tested previously we have every reason to believe history will repeat itself (see below for support). Should this support be broken, we would see a clean break down to the supporting weekly trendline (also see below). We will assess the candlesticks on the 1 hour and 4 hour chart for confirmation of our entry. This week we're awaiting releases on CPI for Europe, which will also be monitored closely should we not have already entered before this release. Shark Ratios are as follows: C = 1.13-1.618 D = 1.618-2.618 X to D = 0.886-1.13 As always, risk:reward should be 1:2 minimum- in this case 1:3. Keep an eye on this one guys; I'll update as time progresses.
Long
by KyleMcQuade
3
XAG/USD Bearish 5-0Hey guys, tonight I'm looking a 5-0 position on silver! I previously had my eye on a bullish shark, which has turned into a bearish 5-0 (see below). Price has already touched the 50% retracement and is beginning to show signs of reversal after the bearish engulfing candle! Price is also about to make a double top on the 1 hour chart. Taking this into consideration, this will be a good area to enter a short position. Price is also re-testing previous support which has turned to resistance due to the change in trend. With 5.0's they are invalid once price reaches the 0.618 level retracement level, so our SL should be just above this point. Risk as always should be a minimum 1:2. 5-0 Ratios B = 1.13-1.618 C = 1.618-2.24 D = 0.5 Analysis will be updated as we go along!
OANDA:XAGUSDShort
by KyleMcQuade
9
AUDCAD - Bullish CypherLooking forward to a new week, I have added the AUD/CAD to my watchlist- keeping my eye on a bullish cypher pattern on the 4 hour chart. If you scroll back on this timeframe you can see our PRZ has landed in an area where there is a history of price consolidating as support or resistance, as well as times where price has quickly reversed. Keeping this in mind, I expect to see some nice price action should price reach this level. As always I will be analysing the candles for signs of reversal- hammers, engulfing candle, you know how it goes... With this pattern our first Take-Profit level will fall exactly on 0.98, with our final target for 0.98784. With any pattern, risk to reward should be at least 1:2. In this instance we are doing just that as our stop-loss should be below the point of X. This may vary for people depending on when they enter. The stop-loss and profit targets should ever move, so if you enter slightly lower than the PRZ you would see a small difference. Cypher ratios B = 0.382-0.618 C = 1.272-1.414 X to D = 0.786 *To anyone drawing this pattern, please remember to use the Cypher tool- NOT the XABCD tool as normal for other harmonic formations* I am currently short the AUDJPY, so I do expect some further weakness from the AUD (see below). I'll update further once price has reached our PRZ. Have a good week guys!
Long
by KyleMcQuade
6