Chart Analysis: The chart depicts the relationship between the M2 money supply, US Consumer Price Index (CPI), labor market trends, and historical recessions. Key observations include: Recessions: -Historical recessions are marked and correlated with significant economic downturns. -Each recession coincides with substantial drops in the labor market and...
Takeaways US labor market and inflation showed signs of cooling in June: The unemployment rate rose to 4.1% and CPI, a core inflation measure, increased just 3.3% year-over-year. US House can’t override Biden veto: US lawmakers fell short of the two-thirds majority needed to overturn Biden’s veto of a Congressional resolution to overturn an SEC bulletin...
We've been expecting #InterestRates to be cut. Here's the counter argument to that... Economy not slowing down. Bigs are getting bigger. Labor market is tight. People are working 2 to 3 jobs. Expected payroll raises in the near future. Expected increase in prices by businesses. Rent and housing prices are still rising, for the most part. Oil is trending higher....
MACRO MONDAY 9 Initial Jobless Claims Historical Analysis and Important upcoming levels Initial claims are new jobless claims filed by U.S. workers seeking unemployment compensation, included in the unemployment insurance weekly claims report. "Initial claims" refers to the government report on the number of workers applying for unemployment benefits for...
The inflation battle is far from over in the UK. In fact, the nature of inflation is taking a new form as the root cause moves away from external to more domestically driven shocks. While the headline rate remained unchanged at 8.7%yoy in May, core inflation accelerated to 7.1% in May from 6.8% in April, marking the highest rate since March of 19922. In response...
Inflation, a critical financial and economic indicator, has been significantly impacted by various factors in recent years. This article delves into the influence of COVID-19, changes in work patterns, labor market shifts, energy sector decisions, and the Russia-Ukraine war on inflation, presenting a comprehensive analysis of our present financial landscape. ...
Let try this again, hard to get this lined up nicely... This week we saw some interesting indicators start to decline. In industry: More volatile PMI manufacturing saw further pull below 50 while PMI services have now just crossed the threshold. PMI services has only crossed below 50 during a few periods in the last 25 years. Labor markets Labor statistics...
This week we saw some interesting indicators start to decline. In industry: More volatile PMI manufacturing saw further pull below 50 while PMI services have now just crossed the threshold. PMI services has only crossed below 50 during a few periods in the last 25 years. Labor markets Labor statistics continue to remain fairly static. They are expected to...
If you have been living under a rock for the past few days, unless you are not an economic savvy, the Bureau of Labor Statistics has released its newest Non-Farm Payrolls much above the expectation. The NFP rose by 263,000 last month, compared with an expected 200,000. At first, my reaction was that the FED will have to keep raising interest rates, especially as...
EUR/USD 🔼 GBP/USD 🔼 AUD/USD 🔼 USD/CAD 🔽 USD/JPY 🔽 XAU 🔼 WTI 🔼 The latest US nonfarm payrolls data has reflected a tight labor market, increasing 261,000 jobs in October, against projections between 200,000 and 240,000. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate has increased slightly to 3.7%, though the market expected only 3.6%. However, brief hopes for China to lift...
2022 is most comparable to 1978 in terms of the current jobs & inflation situation. Seven decades of history concerning the 3, shows that the current drop in stocks is more likely a correction and not the start of a true bear market. 1972-73 scenario is 1 against 6 odds (and that's after demoting 1978 to equal the others). It also usually takes a long time for...
ZIP announced great earnings today and potentially has a lot of tail winds in front of them. I believe the company is one of the best positioned to take on the new kind of labor market. Good luck traders!
130 years ago the USA became the world largest economy, and roughly 60 years ago they were the most far ahead. Today their lead is the smallest it has been in generations. Also, the share of the world GDP that the west makes keeps getting smaller. On top of that the US is pulling out of Afghanistan and reducing their world presence if I got that correctly, and...
The main event of yesterday in terms of macroeconomic statistics was the publication of statistics on the UK labor market. The data pleasantly surprised. Recall that we expected rather weak statistics - the British economy has been painfully unconvincing in recent times. Nevertheless, the UK economy for three months until November created 208K new jobs, which is...
Big news coming out this Thursday Yellow lines are long term targets Lets see what happens, just for fun Disclaimer: I am not a financial adviser, this post is purely for fun and should not be taken as financial advice. Trade at your own risk.
In yesterday’s review, we already noted that this week may be decisive for several financial assets, and the global economy as a whole. On December 15, the United States may introduce tariffs on goods from China and thus bring trade wars to a new level. It's entirely up to an agreement between the parties. Even though we have heard positive statements for more...
Hi traders. EURUSD is currently forming a strong short near the 1.06463, its very likely expected to stay short for the next 3 or 4 hours, which can make us profit between 140-150 pips, because thats what I usually aim for. I care about pips, not profits as most traders do. Its what brings me money in the long term. I will be updating this chart as time goes by....
Hi traders. EURUSD is currently forming a strong long near the 07, its very likely expected to stay long for the next 3 or 4 hours, which can make us profit between 140-170 pips, because thats what I aim for. I care about pips, not profits as most traders do. Its what brings me money in long term. I will be updating this chart as time goes by. It'll surely be a...