Independence from the Tories: A new July 4th As the UK approaches the July 4th general election, the Labour Party is set to end the Conservatives' 14-year rule. According to the latest BBC poll tracker, Labour leads by 20 points, with 41% of the vote, while the Conservatives hold 21%, and Reform UK is at 16%.
Labour's pledge to improve EU relations could strengthen the pound by reducing Brexit-induced trade frictions. This potential easing could boost the UK economy and support sterling.
The pound has remained relatively stable ahead of the election, with the GBP/USD hovering near the 1.2700 mark. Despite the broad expectation of a Labour victory, traders appear cautious. A decisive break above this level could see buyers gaining control.
Given Labour's substantial lead in the polls, it is plausible that the market has already priced in a Labour victory to a significant extent. However, the actual impact on sterling and broader market sentiment will depend on the clarity and execution of Labour's economic policies post-election.
Labour
GBPCHF what if reports are better then forecast/previous...??!!Sterling could be in for additional volatility as the U.K. jobs figures are due and might set the tone for BOE policy expectations. If the actual figures beat expectations, however, it could spark a strong bounce for pound pairs as this would likely dampen BOE rate cut hopes. The pair is floating around 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, which coincides with an area of interest, weekly pivot level, and the 100 SMA dynamic inflection point. In my opinion, we may not see a further deep or retracement around 50-61.80% Fibonacci if we have a surprise better than the expected report where consensus is better then what it is hoped by the economist. The faster-moving MA is above the 200 SMA to indicate that support is more likely to hold than to break at the moment and also, stochastic is indicating oversold conditions or exhaustion among sellers, so buyers might take over soon but as we said everything depends on the upcoming outlook from the UK and global risk sentiment. The average daily volatility of GBP/CHF is around 82 pips a day so decide wisely entries and exit levels after knowing the reports. Stay careful friends!
Europe is “disappointing”, we trade with oscillatorsMonday turned out to be a relatively calm day for the foreign exchange market. The euro and the pound could not reach Friday's peaks, due to the weak macroeconomic statistics.
For example, in Germany, the PMI in the manufacturing sector fell to its lowest level in the last couple of months and amounted to 43.4. This confirms that the largest eurozone economy is experiencing serious problems. Recall, any index value below 50 means that activity in the manufacturing sector is declining.
Germany is not an exception. Weak data came from both France and the UK. According to PMI, manufacturing activity in Britain is at its lowest level over the last 7 years. The PMI in the manufacturing sector in the UK came out at 47.4 pips (analysts expected 49.2).
In general, the lack of growth of the euro and the pound against the background of such data is quite logical.
On the other hand, this is not a reason to refuse to buy EURUSD and GBPUSD. All we need is statistics on industrial production in the United States come out weak. Well, for the pound it would be nice if the data on the labour market did not disappoint.
In general, today we are not expecting any revelations and strong directional movements. In our opinion, the best trading tactics for today is oscillatory trading. So we trade with RSI or Stochastic or you can choose another one.
Once again, we draw attention on extremely attractive positions for sales of the Russian ruble.
BT - Dialling upBuy BT Group (BT.A.L)
BT Group plc is a communications services company. The Company is engaged in selling fixed-voice services, broadband, mobile and television products and services, as well as various communications services ranging from phone and broadband to managed networked information technology (IT) solutions and cyber security protection.
Market Cap: £18.96Billion
BT has broken out of a channel pattern on the daily chart. The breakout move has retraced 50% of the impulsive move higher and retested the broken channel. The shares appear to be stabilising around 185p, while the Conservatives remain in the lead in the opinion polls then the shares could continue higher in relief of avoiding the threat of part nationalisation from a Labour Government.
Stop: 181.6p
Target 1: 212p
Target 2: 230p
Target 3: 265p
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WHO F****** KNOWS NOWmore delays for brexit should see big gap down and a return to retest previous lows.
if deal is agreed then we should see gap up and continued strength in the pound.
honestly, i have stopped day trading the pound, it is very volatile and now looking for longer term positions.
As a young person in the UK i feel my views have been forgotten about. To anyone over the age of 50, should not be able to vote simply because it is not their future. At this moment in time i just want us to leave, this is not my political view, it is simply so that we can stop going in circles and sort the country out.
anyone think i should be PM?
DATA VIEW (NOT A FORECAST): PARTICIPATION RATE AT HISTORIC LOWSParticipation rate, on the other hand, has been declining since 2010 and now stands at levels lower than in 1980-ies.
However it is not a systemic problem with the labor market. The reason for the decline is that the percent of population that is employed or actively looking for work is shrinking as a part of total population as a direct effect of aging baby-boomers.