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Labrietrading

$OXY: Monthly signal in oil active...I scooped some long term OTM calls here, gives me 10.5% notional exposure to oil via $OXY, risking 1% of my portfolio if the trade fails. Seems like a good way to be exposed to the big and steady trend in oil, I have already banked my other energy positions and oil futures options, this is a good way to stay exposed with minimal risk (since the weekly oil target was already reached, but monthly has a lot of room and time to go) Cheers! Best of luck, Ivan.
NYSE:OXYLong
by IvanLabrie
Soybeans: Close to a buy signal once again...The last time we had a perfect storm situation to buy grains, we had a monster rally in both corn and beans. We are now in a similar situation, with the recent surge in Nat Gas affecting fertilizer prices. Weather in Brazil is problematic and China is struggling to produce grains locally...We are once again nearing a situation where reward to risk for buying into grains is tremendous. I'm long Corn futures already for a couple days and waiting for the daily chart to trigger a technical buy signal in Nov Beans to go long as well. The last weekly signal expires by next week, as a failure, price hit really oversold levels and reached monthly support (see green shaded area). Implications are a retest of the weekly down trend mode (as shown by the arrow on chart), at least, which can then evolve into a new weekly uptrend, once the daily trend turns up. And potentially trigger a new monthly signal similar to the one we had before...This is an interesting juncture to enter long term positions in grain futures. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
CBOT:ZS1!Long
by IvanLabrie
1
BIIB: Biogen, low risk long term buyReward to risk long term in $BIIB is very attractive here. I've gone long via a calendar spread before the latest FDA approval news, which turned out like a good long position when Biogen's Alzheimer's drug Aduhelm received accelerated approval. Following this, related companies which also have Alzheimer's drugs pending approval (like $LLY) received a dramatic boost. In the case of $LLY, their drug was approved as well a few days later. Both charts are very strong in the long term, showing signs of yearly uptrends present, indicating a multi year rally in these stocks is possible. Accelerated approval means that the FDA approves the drug due to the possibility that it may provide therapeutic benefit to patients even though there is some uncertainty about the drug’s clinical benefit. Aduhelm is the first therapy approved for Alzheimer’s disease that is directed at the underlying pathology itself (the presence of amyloid beta plaques in the brain). The clinical trials were the first to show that a reduction in these plaques is expected to lead to a reduction in the clinical decline of this form of dementia. There is a lot of debate regarding the drug's price tag, as well as the clinical benefit it may or not provide, but I think it's a reasonable bet to make here, from a technical and fundamental standpoint. Valuation wise, the company has very low long term debt to equity, high free cash flow yield and a high earnings yield (trailing twelve months), earnings growth has been negative in the last year, but positive in the previous five years. There is a lot at stake with Aduhelm's potential success, so, don't risk more than you can afford to lose, consider that the yearly uptrend is invalid if price moves below 243.58 to define your position sizing based on your risk appetite. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
NASDAQ:BIIBLong
by IvanLabrie
1
$TTD: Long term trend active...$TTD offers a tremendous trade opportunity here, after barely missing a long term support level which would have been a good long term entry to join the trend and reacting to it, I think it's worth it to pay up and jump into it ASAP. If price were to dip into support, you may add to your position, but it isn't worth depending on limit orders that might never get filled to enter. As long as price holds over $75, the setup here is likely to pan out between now and August 2022. Best of luck! Cheers, Ivan.
NASDAQ:TTDLong
by IvanLabrie
1
$USDCAD: Lagging oil...I plotted inverse oil here vs $USDCAD, it seems there's a nice opportunity for a big short to close that spread. I'm long $CADJPY and short $USDCAD from earlier today, now made some time to post the weekly signal in $USDCAD, which is cooking here. If price breaks 1.24603, a weekly down trend with a target @ 1.16536 will be active, predicting a 18 week decline is setting up. Stop loss for this setup should be a bit above the light red horizontal line on chart. Best of luck, Cheers. Ivan.
Short
by IvanLabrie
BTCUSD: Update, CME is the driving force here...I found the culprit of my confusion regarding the last upswing in $BTCUSD, the spot chart has become unreliable compared to the CME futures chart, at least when it comes to Time@Mode analysis. Finer details of how weekly bar ranges look, impact the analysis outcome. I missed a signal indicating that we could go long, like 4 weeks ago, and given sentiment didn't think it made sense to get a signal targeting new all time highs either. In the CME chart we see a clearly expired monthly trend, and a clean weekly down swing which has panned out. As well as a new weekly upswing currently taking place. I suspect the outcome of regulatory uncertainty will be that price remains sideways/down and price doesn't make new highs for a long time. Regulations won't come into play after 2023, so perhaps a bit before that, the market will move out of this sideways state. It is unclear when we will have more clarity regarding the final decision in the infrastructure bill, but market participants will be monitoring it closely. I think my main long term view is correct, that a long term trend ended, and now we either go sideways or down for a similar amount of time as previous bear markets, roughly until April 2022, this is also in line with expectations from monthly T@M signals in the CME chart here presented. As for the daily and weekly uptrend, there is a big resistance cluster above, and a weekly level that should hold, around 50k. I don't think price can jump over that barrier easily. Daily trend expires by Friday, weekly expires in two more Fridays after. Let's keep an eye on developments here, I anticipate this market will be driven by institutional portfolio managers rebalancing, which likely will contribute to price being stuck in a sideways range until there is regulatory clarity in the future. This will also help sentiment cool down, as it is I can't fathom price going into a steady uptrend and reaching 80-100k or whatever. I hope you feel as relieved as me, after figuring out this puzzle. Take it easy, we will have a ton of time to analyze and think about this market's trend. Price won't deviate far, specially not up, I am pretty sure of that now. Even more so than before. We can trade the daily signals as they form, up and down, but definitely don't fomo in and buy all in and expect unreasonable moves (same can be said for shorting, trade small or don't trade). Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
CME:BTC1!
by IvanLabrie
14
$NZDUSD: Short setup in the dailyAlways keen on having some uncorrelated trades to generate returns with potentially...I'm short the Kiwi dollar here, worth a punt as it might erase the recent multi week advance next as it remains range bound for the most part. The $NZDCNH and $JPYCNH pairs are reversing, coinciding with weakness in $USDJPY, $EURJPY, $AUDJPY, $NZDJPY, $AUDUSD and $NZDUSD. There's a chance that the recent moves in currencies are reversed overall. Best of luck! Cheers, Ivan.
Short
by IvanLabrie
1
$BABA: It's time, load up the truck...I think $BABA likely bottoms around here, the 14 week down trend signal that predicted this decline reached its final week and price will gap down into long term support from the all time 25% speed line for the whole advance from the bottom to the top. Sentiment had reached critical levels for equities last week already, and there's a path out of this mess with Evergrande possibly under control and most investors liquidated out of this stock, reaching lows not seen since 2019. Valuation is interesting now, so, it seems like a good play to try and knife catch this one. I once tried with the $KWEB etf which had completed a similar down trend recently, which led to a rapid rebound rally but that rally was faded after I took profits, and prices retraced back near the bottom on the back $BABA's continued weakness. The time is likely now, to try and fade this largely hyped fall, after most people trying to catch the bottom gave up already. Let's roll! I risk 1 average true range down, below this support level here, I will then monitor daily charts for a bullish trend signal after basing, to accumulate more shares and trail my stop loss higher. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
NYSE:BABALong
by IvanLabrie
14
$EURJPY: The Euro looks strong here, nice setup$EURJPY looks like a good low risk long setup here, any dip after the market opens is a buy, aim for a 6 day rally, as long as above the yellow box on chart. After that happens, we could get further bullish consolidations and more trend setups, so it is a good idea to catch the first signal reversing a down trend here. Increases the odds of a large reward to risk longer term trend. This pair is reacting positively to rising yields in the US, and rising inflation expectations as shown in the 10 year break even inflation chart. Totally worth a shot, together with $AUDJPY and $CADJPY, $USDJPY is also trending up but not such a high reward to risk compared to these more oversold cross pairs. $CADJPY is more correlated to oil, the BoC is seen as really hawkish as of late, combined with the trend in oil, makes it a strong candidate for a long in various pairs. Cheers, Ivan.
Long
by IvanLabrie
1
$AUDJPY: Potential long signal once againI think we are about to experience a strong reflationary wave once again, we have crypto, commodities, equities, preparing to rally in a big way, and the Aussie-Yen forming a monster base. The setup here is to buy if price breaks out forming a larger range upside move vs the last daily true range (when measured from the last close to the upside). This would get my R.E.Signal indicator to flash a green triangle underneath the daily bar, would mean we are about to start a steady trend from here. We can define risk and set a stop not too far below, which is graphed on chart. The signal might not trigger in the next daily bar, but if it does, the price for entry and stop in this chart would be valid. I'll update this as the chart takes form. I anticipated fireworks in my previous $SPY publication, alerting of a broad sentiment reset forming, which should prepare us mentally for another huge 'winning' wave. The last strong trend we had was after the Pfizer vaccine announcement, when we made an absolute killing with value stocks and financials. Now we have the Merck pill announcement, potentially triggering another round of reopening optimism, setting the stage for economic recovery, the first phase of which would be reflation. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
1
$EURCHF: Bottomed here...I think we have a decent trade with something between 3:1 and 5.28:1 RR here. I'm long here since the hourly is bottoming, and daily charts hit long term support, while being close to exhausting the last daily down trend signal that was active. Technically, this is a very strong mean reversion possibility and we have the backing of the Swiss National Bank which could stop the decline intervening in the market around here... Best of luck, Cheers. Ivan.
Long
by IvanLabrie
2
#COIN: Coinbase about to rally for 9 weeks at leastLooks like $COIN is ready to rally here, was accumulated and can move up dramatically in the coming 8 weeks. Crypto as a whole looks like the long term uptrend I had forecasted in August 2020 is still en route, despite what I had initially thought myself, after we had a dramatic crash from the April top following the IPO. Best of luck if trading this or holding, trend is up, but watch out for my target zone and behavior once the time expires for this move. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
NASDAQ:COINLong
by IvanLabrie
5
SPX500: Daily trend refuses to turn upThe daily timeframe has yet another short signal here, I've hedged my equities positions with a 1:1 $ESZ2021 short position near the NY closing time. Implications are we get yet another down swing, and a vicious one towards 4161.8 by Oct 25 or sooner, as long as price doesn't cross the 4368.89 level with ease, erasing the decline from the high two days ago. There's palpable fear in the market, and earnings season around the corner might keep investors up at night...The recent upswing in commodities, as shortages and supply chains woe pop left and right is making people nervous, add to these inflationary woes, the rising yields and rising dollar, and we get a perfect storm. I was expecting sell offs to slow down, since we had a strong buying wave, retracing the last liquidity shock by 75% in the $VIX chart, but the latest daily T@M signal here puts that notion in question. The currency market is making shock waves here, which is an unusual and new development, $USDJPY breaking out and rallying very strongly, could be followed up by deleveraging. I'm being cautious and hedging until things are clear again. My individual stock positions have solid charts and a fundamental back drop, so, it isn't worth it to sell them in this case. Let's see if bears get follow through here and the signal target is reached in time. Best of luck, Ivan.
FX:SPX500Short
by IvanLabrie
Silver/Gold ratio: Silver is stretched compared to GoldI love the setup in the Silver/Gold ratio here. Big upside with super low downside risk if you trade it as a pair, going long 1 lot of Silver futures vs 1 lot short in Gold futures. There was a 14 week down trend signal that expires today, which predicts a relief rally of 14 weeks could occur starting here. The daily chart has a bullish trend signal confirming today as well. See the stop loss recommendation on chart, it is a 2.1% downside risk in the ratio, so, size your trade accordingly. Best of luck, Cheers. Ivan.
OANDA:XAGUSDLong
by IvanLabrie
#AUDJPY: Bottom's in?I like the confluence of signals here, conspiring for a major bottom in $AUDJPY. Weekly down trends have expired, daily is oversold and turning up from an already completed down trend and sentiment has been tremendously negative in this pair. I suspect a major turning point happened last week in small caps and currencies and other beaten down assets, like China stocks, etc. Worth a small shot with low risk here, stop loss at last week's low is fine, don't risk over 2%, perhaps 0.25% is fine. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
3
$SUSHIUSDT: Potential uptrend signal hereIf we get a breakout, we can go long $SUSHIUSDT here, with a decent reward to risk, signal could trigger during tomorrow onwards. I'll update it once it kicks in. Strictly technical trade here, I don't think it's justified to expect a longer term move in altcoins here, $BTCUSD's 2 week timeframe signal is a much better candidate for that, but we could get a short term rapid rally here, and the stop loss is tight, once it is active. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
2
#BTCUSD: long and mid term update:Current signal is ambiguous here, outcome depends on this week's price action until next Sunday's close. There was a 98k target forecast activated from like 36-37k in late July... That forecast will be invalidated if this week bulls manage to send $BTCUSD prices over 56138.42 (Coinbase price), or could even turn into a bearish setup if prices move below 35910.04 before next Sunday's close. If you were long, you know what stop to use... Watch this week's action closely, daily and weekly charts are interesting to watch as well, daily turning bearish could be an early indication of downside risk. I'm inclined to see bullish action, as markets recover from the recent shocks, but, I'm data dependent here. Things will be clearer soon, the biweekly timeframe has worked well to analyze the big picture swings in Bitcoin historically, so it is a good tool to use here, although from an execution standpoint, you have to tolerate big drawdowns if using it at times, for the most part it does a good job, those drawdowns are nothing compared to the returns generated by trading it.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by IvanLabrie
17
$XLF: Long financials now...We have a tremendous signal to go long financial names now, as the yield curve is set to steepen once again and yields are rising on the back of the last FOMC meeting outcome, and the reopening momentum generated by the evolution of the Delta variant, and news of an antiviral pill from Merck that can cause a 50% reduction of fatalities and hospitalizations that recently surfaced. Charts are very constructive, as the $USB one I pointed out. I'm currently long a variety of value/financials/energy names as well as crude oil futures options for a while now, since AAII readings sunk below 25% recently. Now the broad market chart looks like a bottom is forming, and today a buy signal popped in $XLF, so the time is now! Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
AMEX:XLFLong
by IvanLabrie
5
$USB: Monster setupAll timeframes are setting up for a big move in $USB here, daily is kicking off a fresh uptrend after the recent bottom, weekly and monthly are about to trigger a trend as well, and by EOY the yearly will flash a 10 year uptrend signal which aims for somewhere between $220 and over $1600 per share by the year 2030. I think overall, the return vs risk proposition here is tilted significantly in our favor to buy both speculative swing positions, as well as potential long term positions too. Keep a close eye on this setup, might be extremely rewarding and it is extremely low risk considering the potential upside at hand... Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
NYSE:USBLong
by IvanLabrie