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Labrietrading

$ZN_F: Bonds have bottomedI think we have a low risk trade here, buying bonds until March 17th or so. Weekly trend is up, until said date, and could after that form a new consolidation and new continuation pattern over time if my view here is correct. Definitely a good idea to have some exposure to bonds, I personally opted for buying OTM calls to ride this signal, but you could use futures or ETFs as well (or just buy the actual bonds). Best of luck! Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
CBOT:ZN1!Long
by IvanLabrie
1
$AFRM: Bullish trend?With the amount of signals I am seeing (about 20 long ideas here), many being growth names, it is clear the market is pricing in a more dovish Fed, inflation cooling down and a soft-ish landing...I wonder if this will become a trap as all these setups fail simultaneously after FOMC? For now, it is what it is and charts call for long exposure. $AFRM has a nice reward to risk and odds here, and $QQQ weekly is now bullish, and broke into a new monthly high after triggering a trend signal so maybe we did see a bottom after all...Earnings data has been quite positive, according to $V, $MA, $AXP, so there could be some potential on the long side as a mid or long term idea. I'm personally trading tactically overall, until it is clearer we're out of the woods, closing things at targets, using tight stops, playing longs and shorts, etc. Best of luck! Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
NASDAQ:AFRMLong
by IvanLabrie
$TLT: Keep an eye on this$TLT has reached the end of a huge weekly and monthly down trend, and made me think it could be a long lasting bottom for fixed income here. Question is: Does this low hold after the next FOMC or not? The daily chart shows a setup where a daily uptrend is set to expire by tomorrow, which could mean the current advance is over, or, perhaps, it needs some time sideways to build for a new move to the upside over time. If you can figure out what bonds will do, you have pretty big odds of getting all the rest right overall, so I'm extremely motivated to figure out what comes next here. Keep an eye out for the daily signal outlook here, and be on guard for a weekly scale breakout to the upside to buy or add to existing longs. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
NASDAQ:TLT
by IvanLabrie
$VNQ: At a buy zone...This could be a substantial bottom in $VNQ here, worth monitoring at the very least. I have no position here, but tracking thee main ETFs and top 30 market cap stocks at all times, as well as my own watchlist for my long term account, and my screening tool output. Sentiment has been quite bad, and we had a rapid worsening of financial conditions for home buyers, akin to that of 1982, which is a very dramatic move, affordability wise. Let's see how this evolves, I'm thinking bond yields and mortgage rates will likely start to come down hard from here onwards as well, so naturally, Real Estate will breathe some fresh air. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
AMEX:VNQLong
by IvanLabrie
$QQQ: Quarterly trend expiring...The quarterly timeframe chart had a trend signal that formed when the market broke out of the range that formed before and after the pandemic shock and subsequent lock public health, fiscal and monetary policies impacted equities. The stimulus driven bonanza ended and the market topped as the world knew the Fed would embark in quantitative tightening to normalize policy. Very curiously even perma bears and perma wrong value investors waiting for a dip got bullish, marking interesting contrarian signals for a top in late Nov 2021. Now that the tides have turned, former winners have become the worst performers and riskiest assets to own long term due to the change in fundamental variables and the huge bubble that formed and is popping right now. The weekly $QQQ chart could flash a big weekly down trend during next week, for that reason I bot a put spread expiring on June 17 to reduce my portfolio's risk and profit, being this bear put spread OTM one of my main bearish plays I got going right now. If price stays below the weekly mode area for the whole week, the signal will confirm and we will see the Nasdaq names slide down dramatically until mid June easily. Longer term, this chart pattern points to a decline lasting well into 2024, and suggesting painful downside can happen in this ETF and associated names. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by IvanLabrie
5
$AAPL: Bubble popped...I think $AAPL offers a great long term short opportunity here, I specially like the idea of being long $BRK.B and short $AAPL to nullify the exposure Berkshire contains as well...Valuation could come down substantially with the on-shoring theme materializing over time as China manufacturing fueled margins would suffer. We have seen demand slumping lately, with sales slowing down, and technicals offer a great short signal in the daily, after getting overbought, while the monthly chart implies price can fall until August, and reach at least the levels where the last monthly trend started @ 128.72. Definitely a good addition to a long term portfolio, to help reduce volatility in this long term bear market we are navigating now, like it or not. Vast majority of the people remain oblivious to it, and definitely not correctly positioned to profit from the changing market conditions that we observe. We might see a similar situation as the period between 2000 and 2003 unfold next. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
NASDAQ:AAPLShort
by IvanLabrie
2
$FENC: Short setup$FENC has a nice short signal, the stock had a spectacular rally since it bottomed in early 2022, but could be reaching the end of the road here after drastically outperforming the market until now. Their drug received FDA approval in Sep 2022, commercial availability in the US in Oct 2022, but despite this, the latest report showed an increase in net loss YoY (twice as much as reported on Q3 2021). Seems like a decent short here, after this impressive run. Stop @ 9.95, support @ 8. Best of luck! Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
NASDAQ:FENCShort
by IvanLabrie
$FL: Everything lining up for a big move up$FL has a nice setup in basically every timeframe here, which suggests it could make a major move to the upside from here after next week. If it were to fall below $37 this setup would be invalidated for the most part, so watch out for that. Pays a 4% dividend, has an 11% earnings yield, and 0.42 price to sales ratio, with very low debt and actually producing EPS growth this year, it doesn't get much cheaper than this for a stock with potential upside. Definitely worth a shot here. Best of luck! Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
NYSE:FLLong
by IvanLabrie
$TSLA: final leg down...I think $TSLA is about to reach a substantial long term bottom after dropping here next. I'm playing the short side and aiming to buy the bottom once this signal pans out, there's a huge longt term support level, it will be worth looking at the other EV names as well, might be a long term opportunity in many of them, but the safest bet is $TSLA given their unique positioning and margin of safety vs the rest. News about price cuts in China and now the EU will help the downside move here, but ultimately are not as important as investors might think, it contributes to worsening of sentiment, as people conflate this with a drop in demand, but ultimately, Elon can afford to sacrifice some of his ample margins to wipe out the competition everywhere. With Lithium prices coming down, and likely $TSLA themselves getting into Lithium mining I can see this being very close to a long term bottom here. This drop is unsustainable over time, if the market turns around, we have a huge drop in energy prices eventually acting as a massive long term tailwind for the economy, combined with the change of monetary policy stance globally forming as we speak, it's a matter of 6 months before we see the effects of it in the broad economy and earnings data probably but the bottom will happen before in most things. What will this lead to? I don't know for sure but we likely have a strong bullish impulse that we should capitalize on this year. Next year we have POTUS elections, so things could get interesting sooner than people expect by now. Best of luck! Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by IvanLabrie
5
$PFE: Interesting juncture here...Pfizer has a curious setup where both an uptrend or down trend could trigger next, depending on which extreme of last week's range is crossed first. As per the chart, you can go long on a break of last week's high or short on a break of last week's low, with stops as depicted on chart. Targets may be subject to updates, if price action forms larger consolidation patterns in the direction of the trade and the initial entry isn't stopped. Odds of the trade working and making some progress in the next week are big if the trade is triggered, you could secure some gains by Friday close, if the target or the stop aren't hit, or just exit the trade altogether to revisit it next week, if continuation occurs. Best of luck! Ivan Labrie.
NYSE:PFE
by IvanLabrie
1