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ridethepig | EUR Market Commentary 2020.01.20EUR testing the 1.108/9x zone this morning as mentioned already earlier this month. At this point all soft hands who tried out guessing the reflationary flows and USD devaluation in December are washed out. Activity for the European open picked up, I remain bullish and have actively been adding longs in EURUSD. Stops can be kept comfortably below 1.103x while targets are located at 1.117x and 1.125x. Remember we are tracking only three things: 1. the swing which is dictating the range 2. the opposing side which will become trapped 3. the swing behind the swing which is being trapped The swinging process is attacking the opposition defending the swing you are playing. So in this case sellers are standing between the first targets at 1.125x - thus it would expose the threatened highs. If this breakout is absolute, i.e the swing may make a new higher high then we can talk of a complete swing like in this diagram: For those wanting to check the Long-Term Fundamental chart: Good luck all those selling USD, a lot of opportunities in G10 FX.
Long
by ridethepig
3
ridethepig | The SwingWe are going to dig deeper into the concept of the wave/swing and how to create a positional strategy from a strictly technical sense. After the latest test of 1.108/9x, which was so difficult for sellers with its positional issues, the next swing should appear "a piece of cake". I suspect this will lead you to ask whether imaginary protection is enough!? Be a man, no time to be afraid here on such a "protected" area. Seizing the breakup on the next swing has three stages: 1. the swing which is dictating the range 2. the opposing side which will become trapped 3. the swing behind the swing which is being trapped The swinging process is attacking the opposition defending the swing you are playing. So in this case sellers are standing between the first targets at 1.125x - thus it would expose the threatened highs. If this breakout is absolute, i.e the swing may make a new higher high then we can talk of a complete swing. Here the swing is only in the 'early game' stages, the swing in play is only "partially" possible. How easy would it be if we went straight up (!!!) - more experienced traders would sooner stick their head inside a Crocodile's mouth 🐊. The slower the swing, the more respect. Bravery is needed, a swing without a foundation is a swing without power! As a rule, the plan here is to attack in such a way that we take immense control and achieve an attack next week. As usual, thanks so much for keeping the likes and comments coming. Jump into the conversation below with your charts and ideas on EURUSD!
Long
by ridethepig
11
ridethepig | EUR Market Commentary 2020.01.17Eyes on the NY session here with Euro approaching the 1.108/9x lows, I will be actively buying today and sticking with the bullish view with targets located at 1.124/5x. You will see how large hands absorb all of the selling pressure and eat up late breakdown players expected an effortless momentum trade, whereas the reality is the strength of macro forces in play defending the area and will be beautifully demonstrated. The Seller realises the error of his way too late and began to run to the hills. The comedy goes as follows: For example in this position: The strength of the view can be protected in the fact that it is immune from the opposing breakdown. The distant view is decisive: The key point here is that the calendar is light so we are trading technical flows, I am buying the lows at 1.108/9x with targets at 1.124/5x for the highs. While stops can be kept below 1.100x as it will take a break below to demand reassessment of the bullish view. Good luck all those in G10 FX.
Long
by ridethepig
6
ridethepig | EURCHF Market Commentary 2020.15.01CHF a clear winner in the G10 space has been a finding strong bid via smart money smelling the markets strength of conviction in the SNB ability to intervene decreasing. Positioning is far from stretched, meaning there is plenty of room left on the boat. For those tracking the USDCHF flows 0.970x remains the key level to track: The technical picture is clearer in EURCHF in my books, a clean breakdown in play with eyes on the C leg completing at 1.06xx. I have switched to the sell side after the recent breakdown and actively adding shorts in the 1.08xx handle. The 1.06xx handle will become very attractive for longs next month... good luck all trading the selloff into end of Jan.
Short
by ridethepig
ridethepig | EUR Market Commentary 2020.13.01Currencies behave in set patterns, they prefer the comforts of routine. With DXY sitting at resistance, I don’t see room for any further near term gains in Dollar. More importantly we are approaching key value levels from the last Q and large corporates have been spotted on the bid in EURUSD. Here the choice is between 1.128x and 1.21xx. The first results will be discovered faster and allow for USD bulls to form some defence... The second move involved a double swing, automatically ruling out soft retail hands thus... This is another known swing, completed in 5 waves from the 1.08xx lows. Double swings are purely a tactical weapon. For macro players they are terribly compelling; even the sluggish corporates will panic - driven to flight via global reflation. We shall close this chapter with three sample charts. 1. In the macro breakdown I mapped some time ago, things came down to the following interesting positions: Bulls have been successful with the breakout in the technical channel. Bears now played the profit taking game and ended in a pullback. 2. Note the powerful breakout cooking; bulls are already loaded and yet only a few weeks prior bears were safe and sound betting on the downside. The trend changed without retail being able to smell anything cooking !!! 3. The following well known daily chart was no less unnatural: The somewhat theatrical gesture from bulls - has worked; bears who wish to defend forthwith, are finding the defence impossible. As long as DXY comfortably holds below the resistance I will maintain a core bullish view on Euro. Look to buy dips into 1.1080 if you are not already in full positions. Good luck all those on the buy side; as usual guys thanks so much for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, questions and your charts!
Long
by ridethepig
2
ridethepig | EUR Market Commentary 2020.09.01I demonstrated the flows earlier in the move before it played out, there was a winning move in December and the main line comes after: It comes down to the pursuit of seller stops; they have been forced to flee, but the flight itself has been riddled with challenges as more and varied geopolitical risk is conjured up. As I pointed out in the first week of the new swing, the lows led to the pursuit: EUR starting to look interesting again and I started to buy 1.1100/25 as the safe-haven bid into USD starting to fade. With a pinch of luck it will be the low of the week into NFP. Not assigning much room for further downside here, for the sake of practice, let us take another look at the position in the European macro diagram: The technical flows which follow make clear the connection between the base and the breakout. Good luck to those trading EURUSD in 2020 and already in longs or for those waiting patiently on the sidelines for the breakout to form. Buying here makes sense to me heading into NFP with 1.128x targets. As usual thanks so much for keeping your support coming with likes and jumping into the comments!
Long
by ridethepig
1
ridethepig | The Breakout...Insufficient sizings followed through into USD after we cleared the kneejerk reaction in risk via US-Iran. The centre of the map at 1.128x is a strategically dubious setup and offers a great opportunity for EUR bulls to position early as we go into NFP ... how to attack from the wings . By now you all know the necessary swing position we are trading; What, however is less well-know is the strategic necessity to keep an eye on the macro themes, particularly in FX positions; The centre of the technical map here is 1.128x. This means approach with warlike operations as we are never far away. I can remember the initial long-term map we positioned for here, which initially looked rather harmless as far as the flows were concerned; it occurred after the trade war exuberance: The loss of momentum is important here for bears, because the position only appears to be an advanced one when in reality it can open up the entire swing. This is true of 90% of news flow positions. Good luck all those trading the "opening move" ... EUR bulls can achieve the initiative with a skilful breakout. While invalidation will only come into play below 1.10 . As usual thanks so much for keeping your support coming with likes and jumping into the comments!
Long
by ridethepig
2
ridethepig | EUR Market Commentary 2020.01.07EUR ticking higher for the open as liquidity returns from the holiday period. On the whole I am happy with how the euro has held, while we discussed yesterday macro hands betting on the reflation theme are hardly moonwalking but we are making progress nonetheless. Continue to buy dips here, I am becoming increasingly aggressive with sizings, however certainly aware that 1.12xx is proving difficult. A sustained failure to break here will see us retrace towards the lower end of 1.11xx otherwise its business as usual with the initial target at 1.125 (see below diagram). Additionally, we can comfortably lean on the macro charts over the coming months as we see the green shoots reappearing in Europe: Those mid and long term plays can continue to eventually target 1.21xx and 1.25xx in macro portfolios with most the hard work to begin the move largely complete: While the Weekly technicals are much clearer: Good luck to those trading EURUSD in 2020 and already in longs or for those waiting patiently on the sidelines for the momentum break to form. As usual thanks so much for keeping your support coming with likes and jumping into the comments!
Long
by ridethepig
1
ridethepig | EUR Recycling We are talking here about a swing high which has to be broken. What can be doubtful here, you may ask... Of course we must direct the attacks towards the highs, but how does one do that if for some reason the highs cannot be shaken? Would it not be opportunistic to sweep the highs and entice profit taking before recycling longs. This is effectively what happened last week in EUR: Here the bear is condemned to die for the common good, as a diversionary sacrifice. The only question markets are asking is a matter of "when" rather than "if" ... Since the Weekly chart we dissected in September, it would be helpful to start by reviewing the advance: Sellers defence does not look very promising; after a possible escalation with US-Iran tensions or with FED USD devaluation via flooding supply side. So buyers play the breakout... exchanging the base for a new trend in 2020-2021: As usual thanks sooo much for keeping your support coming with likes and jumping into the comments!
Long
by ridethepig
4
Seige WarfareWith a breakout in play on the daily, the formation can advance towards 1.128x and 1.146x extension. The diagram below highlights the attempt shows little defence to transfer the attack on weekly: Given what we have recognised on the technicals around the principled handicap bears have it makes it possible to construct the Macro chart: When our opponent possesses a weakening defence it is worthwhile to push into the advance. In this case, after the Macro and Technical diagrams, we must continue to work the buy side with action towards the highlighted targets. As long as we are allowed to continue the grind higher, reassessment is only necessary below 1.110x. The weakness will appear miles in advance if it is the case and we can update the chart as we go. Here the static weakness of the Dollar can be seen in detail, and in this case bears clearly with the advantage: Remember when a cross shows static weakness, you should aggressively load against them and not be afraid to double the sizes. Now consider the positioning in the next diagram taken from " Apple in the worm " Bulls encouraged Bear's hope that he was headed for a momentum break down, which mean exploitation for the macro swing was not all that difficult. Next came: And now it is important for bulls that the break is tempered into an impulsive swing, the result of which will hold the key to unlocking the targets at 1.128x and 1.146x. Bulls are counting on the strength of the longer term Euro funded currency leg: The correct march forward for bulls here is over the flank, so 1.197x and 1.125x resistance will be key to track for mid-term swings. On the other side, 1.093x and 1.087x will need to be taken in order to demand reassessment of the core bullish view I have constructed over the past three months. Here the win looks forced: ...Thanks all for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, charts and etc.
Long
by ridethepig
7
ridethepig | EURUSD 2020 Macro Map + Flow BreakdownAfter failing to clear 1.12xx before Christmas it is a good time to update the infamous macro chart. The floor is showing signs of permanently raising higher and with markets itching to play the reflation theme in H120, USD devaluation entering into play via Fed flooding USD supply side and we are going see a sharp reversal triggered here with momentum on the channel break in Q120. Lets start by digging deeper into how we got here; those who have followed my post since 2018 will remember the Long Term EURUSD chart: After an exhaustive 2nd wave via protectionism fuelling trade war outflows and causing European macro numbers to ran out of steam, we FINALLY started to find a floor via ECB Tiering : For those with an understanding in waves, you will notice the picture is a lot clearer on the weekly : Although expensive with rollovers the lows have been very tradable, a loud well done all those who caught the initial breakout which we traded live here: Support for USD is starting to run out... with all roads leading to weakness the highs in DXY are likely set for a very long time. We are trading the very highs in the range on the monthly chart, it's crunch time. The USD 2019 Macro Chartbook: We are sitting at the loading zone for year-end, for the flows and target-wise I am aiming for 1.16xx in Q420 and beyond 1.20xx into 2021. Invalidation for the trade will come in below 1.095xx and reassessment of the bullish view will only be necessary if we break through the gap from 2017 French Elections (both are highly unlikely to test now as USD devaluation has already begun via repo crisis). Plenty of resistance above the market, I would expect chop to continue into January and with liquidity dry we can look to add to our longs when participants return to their desks on 27th. Good luck to those trading EURUSD in 2020 and already in longs or for those waiting patiently on the sidelines for the breakout to form. As usual thanks sooo much for keeping your support coming with likes and jumping into the comments!
Long
by ridethepig
19
ridethepig | Getting our bearingsHere the bear is condemned to die for the common good, as a diversionary sacrifice. The only question markets are asking is a matter of "when" rather than "if" ... Since the Weekly chart we dissected in September, it would be helpful to start by reviewing the advance: The correct march forward for bulls here over the flank, so 1.197x and 1.125x resistance will be key to track. On the other side, 1.093x and 1.087x will need to be taken in order to demand reassessment of the core bullish view I have constructed over the past three months. I call this excessive generosity! All dips have been bough and those following are locked in with: (i) (ii) After this march towards the border, remember to create an appetite, the bull must start the day with a hearty breakfast of the late and weak sellers going overboard on the Macro side: We are sitting at the loading zone for year-end, for the flows and target-wise I am aiming for 1.16xx in Q420 and beyond 1.20xx into 2021. Invalidation for the trade will come in below the key support below and reassessment of the bullish view will only be necessary if we break through the gap from 2017 French Elections (both are highly unlikely to test now as USD devaluation has already begun via repo crisis). On the USD side, here we are tracking the Monthly chart in Dollar from an Elliot Wave perspective; after 15 years of the previous bullish USD cycle we are reaching the end of the road with the USD devaluation acting as the global reflationary valve: Good luck to those trading EURUSD in 2020 and already in longs or for those waiting patiently on the sidelines for the breakout to form. As usual thanks so much for keeping your support coming with likes and jumping into the comments!
Long
by ridethepig
4
ridethepig | EUR Market Commentary 2019.11.27With Trump Administration desperately attempting to add momentum to the $ downside via another Fed cut and pressure on ECB, combined with a convergence in US-EU differentials will lead to a long-term rebound in EUR. I am expecting volatility to expand into year-end after completing the 76.4% retracement. For those tracking the USD long-term chart from last month: From a waves perspective a very important year on the macro front which opened up the major monthly reversal targets: Initial monthly targets: 1.15 Long-term monthly targets: 1.20 Best of luck all those tracking EUR as we enter the final few pages in the year, and importantly, thanks all for keeping the likes and support coming.
Long
by ridethepig
ridethepig | EUR Market Commentary 2019.12.18Very little to update on EUR with flows on both sides clashing and causing minor chop inside the 1.11xx handle. Better numbers than expected from Germany this morning providing a gift for those adding on dips. A quick review of the two positions we have traded live so far with the infamous "worm in the apple". A quick review of these charts: As long as support at 1.110x holds I remain bullish looking for a break of 1.12xx to kill the year in FX markets. This will leave us in a very handsome position for the 2020 macro map: Good luck all those buying EUR dips... Thanks for keeping the support coming!
Long
by ridethepig
11
ridethepig | MAJOR BREAKOUT IN PLAY FOR EURUSDWith Fed & ECB cleared a good time to update the EURUSD chartbook: We have positioned live in two textbook cases: For the technicals EURUSD remains rangebound till we break above the highs. Only a close above will suggest a more important base is in place and upgrade my thesis to a conviction. Plenty of resistance above the market, I see scope for 1.16 in 2020 but would expect this to attract some profit taking. Good luck to those trading EURUSD already in longs or for those waiting patiently on the sidelines for the breakout to form. Thanks for keeping your support coming with likes and jumping into the comments!
Long
by ridethepig
4
Britain Election Results, Lagarde Position and Trump TweetsElections in the UK, ECB decision and potential approach the finish line in the first phase of negotiations between the US and China. We will take these matters up one by one. In Britain, parliamentary elections were held. The conservatives, led by current Prime Minister Boris Johnson, confidently won. This victory quite radically changes the political alignment in Britain, but for us, it is interesting primarily for Brexit. In this case, our basic version worked out perfectly: the “soft” Brexit option will be implemented based on the current version of the agreement between the EU and the UK. Naturally, the pound pulled up amid such results. Recall that in our reviews this week we actively recommended buying it. So congratulations to those of our readers who listen to our recommendations, with excellent results. The ECB yesterday expectedly left monetary policy parameters unchanged. And the volume of the asset buyback program (quantitative easing) remained at the level of 20 billion euros. The new head of the Central Bank Christine Lagarde said that the slowdown in the Eurozone economy has stopped. She could have been trusted, if not for yesterday’s data on industrial production in the Eurozone, which showed a decrease of 0.5%. As for the other her statements, it is worth noting the intention to revise the ECB's monetary policy strategy, but some details will become clear not earlier than from the beginning of the next year. But this did not contribute to the growth of the euro today. Brexit is a problem not only in the UK but also in the Eurozone. Accordingly, its resolution is positive for the euro too. Yesterday we could observe the sales in yen pairs and gold, that is, in safe-haven assets. This sale was based on Trump's tweet that the United States came close to a deal with China. Today we will buy safe-haven assets: first of all, sell EURJPY and USDJPY as a less risky option, but we will also look for points for buying gold. Recall, on December 15, the United States may increase duties on goods from China. China will naturally response. Thus, Trump's tweet creates the illusion that there will be no further escalation. If the illusion is dispelled, it will provoke a sharp increase in demand for safe-haven assets.
Long
by Trade24Fx
EU: Medium-term outlookThought I would share outlook on where I think EUR/USD is headed longer term as we are heading into new year with new ECB President. Fundamental: EU Growth remains subdued entering Q4 with GDP at 0.2% ( QoQ ) - Retail Sales missing their mark down by 0.6%. - as well as Industrial Production and Factory Orders in Germany continued to fall The world economy outlook remains sluggish and uncertain. This lowers demand for Euro area goods + services and also affects business sentiment and investment. Next Thursday Christine Lagarde will make her debut where she should set the course of the ECB for the medium-term. Will EU emerge as a proactive economic stakeholder, pushing through more aggressive monetary and fiscal policies, or a passive bystander? US GDP Q3 still outperforming other major economies at 2.1% *Outlook for Global growth remains slow through end of Q2 2020 due to a number of factors; such as demographics, disruptive technology, climate change, Trade relations, etc. *If/When the US-China and US-EU can manage to work through their trade deals, then business sentiment and uncertainty should ease and allow DXY to drop and EU to rise. Technical: Looking at weekly time frame price is struggling at a bearish 20 SMMA ( 1.10600 area ) with 100 and 200 SMMAs well above price, indicating longer term bear trend in tact. 1.09900 is next current Fib target for bears where price should retrace/ consolidate before breaking lower. 1.08150 price area has held fairly well in past and could be target for swing/ position holders to enter long...a break below could waterfall. Currently in a Falling wedge which could play out as a reversal pattern...reversal won't be valid until price has a break and close above trend line on weekly time frame. Until then, Short til it's not! Would love to hear your thoughts/ analysis *Trade at your own risk and have a great year -Krecioch
by Krecioch
UK election results and ECB decisionConcluding a year that saw the central bank take down its benchmark rate three times, the Federal Open Market Committee on Wednesday met widely held expectations and kept the funds' rate at the same level. The Fed is completely satisfied with the current state of things. As a result, markets do not expect any changes in the monetary policy until the end of 2020. The dollar was sold out following the Fed’s decision and Powell’s comments. Our position on the dollar today is unchanged - we are looking for points for its sales. Another promising position for today is pound purchases. General election 2019 polling day today Today, December 12. Its results can change not only the political situation in the country but also affect Brexit. Moreover, its influence can be quite diverse and even opposite. Detailed analytics on this issue is given in yesterday’s review. Here, we note that, in our opinion, the balance of threats/opportunities and profits/risks is biased towards profits and opportunities. Christine Lagarde faces her first real test at ECB debut meeting. The era of Draghi is over, but what Lagarde will remember is still unclear. If she decides to express her vision and strategy, movements may well be in pairs with the euro. As for the parameters of monetary policy, today we do not expect any changes. So today it’s worthwhile to be more careful with the euro, on the one hand, be more careful, and on the other, the euro may well get out of hibernation, which will provide opportunities for earning. And finally, a few words about the oil market. IPO Saudi Aramco the initial public offering is expected to raise at least $25.6 billion, making it the largest ever with a capitalization of $ 1.88 trillion. The oil market more than calmly reacted to this news. Nevertheless, so far our position on oil remains unchanged - we will continue to search for opportunities for oil purchases on the intraday basis.
by Trade24Fx
ridethepig | Buying Dips In Euro...A very good time to update the Euro chart after the infamous "Worm in the apple". For those who have not played before I highly recommend seeing the textbook examples from the playbook here: EUR holding well and failing to give anything back to bears after our flawless swing earlier in the week (but also not taking the widely mentioned key 1.11xx resistance). While its both unsurprising and clear that risk markets are less sanguine, perhaps what is surprising is the resilience the Euro has shown. For those macro players this is screaming loudly !!!! that FX positioning is changing into yearend and the flight to quality into USD is losing its importance . The technical jurisdictions are clearly mapped with 1.109x acting as resistance, if US data undershoots again today a break of the highs is in play. Those looking to add bullish exposure should track the 1.103x support. Remember we can comfortably lean on the long-term swing: I am expecting EUR to find a strong bid next year as we see a new chapter in growth differentials. This will act as a catalyst in the reversal of capitals flows from the euro area to the US and serve as support in EURUSD . The risk to the thesis comes from European growth flopping next year, investors will therefore expect lower returns from the euro area and therefore European assets would sell off, weighing heavy on the currency. Short-term threatening to enter into wide consolidation till year-end, price action eminent of strong support at current levels. I sense that a clean break of 1.11 is now being watched as the catalyst for fresh demand and am comfortable buying anything inside the 1.09xx handle, as opposed to chasing the breakout. Watching EURJPY through 120.70 for clues. Good luck to all those trading the buy side and today's data. Thanks for keeping the support coming with likes and comments!
Long
by ridethepig
5
Chop! Chop!A well needed update to the EURCHF chart after previously tracking and failing to clear the ABC extension targets at 1.065x. For those following the previous charts before we broke down: The yearly flows and expectations for 2020 will large be divided in a tale of two halves and as a result forecasts in the cross reflect that: For the initial phase, we are tracking a test of the important 1.12x and 1.13x highs which will come via a zig-zag of 'orderly' Brexit triggering those who hedged in CHF to unwind and therefore CHF outflows, twinned with EUR funded inflows. This is the A' part in the sequence. After clearing 1.12x and 1.13x and with a lot of work still to be done on the ladder, we transition into the second phase where I will look for a meaningful retrace to around the current lows at 1.092x which will provide the B'. These two phases will cover the majority of 2020 flows before completing a fresh breakup above 1.13xx in 2021 with a completed ABC sequence. Thanks for keeping the support coming with likes and jumping into the comments with your views and charts!
Long
by ridethepig
ridethepig | EURSEK 2020 Macro MapTime for another forward walk in 2020, this time the focus is EURSEK. I am tracking for a year of "two halves" with the first providing support for SEK and a lot of demand for the most undervalued G10 cross. On the SEK side lets start with the Long-term chart: On the EUR side lets start with the Long-term chart: For the Swedish Macro details, Sweden is badly exposed to extreme levels of domestic credit with the SEK depreciation. Houses in Sweden have also not been attractive for a while and are finally showing signs of a bounce. The Riksbank is widely expected to hike in Dec, if the housing market plays ball then we can have more hikes from Riksbank next year. We have traded EURSEK a few times previously here: Risks to the thesis come from the Swedish housing market, if this breaks down we are going to see expectations shift in EURSEK. I will be releasing my 2020 FX outlook reports along with other strategy research in the coming weeks. 2020 is setting up for fireworks on the FX board with expectations and valuations starting to diverge and with late cycle concerns creeping back in through the back door to put the cherry on top. For those interested can send a PM on here or Tradingview.
Short
by ridethepig
2