tesla still has a shot at ATHthis bull market has carried tsla to prices not seen since september 2022. with the size of the bounce and the consolidation in the s&p500 volatility is expected to rise in this name. the trend continuation could happen at any of these market structure levels, an i would remain long the stock on any breakout or bounce from these levels. ive used horizonfal lines to mark out support, resistance and pivot levels that could sway price. is aim as high as ATH or as low as pwVAH.
Largecaps
right here, right meowin a perfect world we would be able to say that this is the start of a broader market recovery with an almost absolute degree of certainty. this is the real world however, and we all have to keep in the backs of our minds that things could still go very badly for longs. that being said bulls do appear to be keeping control of this bounce, and shorts look like theyre ready to start hitting pretty major stoplosses starting a massive squeeze. if we stay over this area, and steer all signals upward im banking on hitting those upper levels, and if we dont... then we dont. we are probably headed back to the lows at the very least, and possibly much lower if we cant maintain this momentum. however we are quite near confirmation of the first weekly higher low in more than a year. that is major.
LTC/BTC - 1D Support + Trend LineSince mid June 2022 LTC has been steadingly increasing in sats value and from the start of November it has been increasing at a much greater pace. Big caps have started to move and are generally a precursor for more volaitlity incoming into other mid to small caps. BTC can still fall so this could take the momentum out of its rise however it would descend slower and will take a while longer to reach its lows like it did in June
we are at a crossroads maybe there is hopeone mans hopium is anothers forever market. the time to start averaging into large caps may have passed. this big tech stock might lead the market higher as has happened every time pointed out here around this recent year low. the price is around sss demand which is still green, and were getting near that year low anchored vwap and the bottom of envelope. finding a higher daily low might be near even if we dont end up breaking the weekly high. sell if we break pivot, lower horizontal or resist from upper. buy if we support pivot or lower horizontal or break upper.
Booking Slips Below Nearby SupportGoing sideways since 2018, Booking.com has not gained much ground. Despite claiming a new all-time high in 2022, the RSI has shown a loss in relative strength. Its very likely that this stock sees a 60% drop in value over the next 2-3 years. Holders should look for the most suitable exit in order to avoid more losses than necessary.
(Wave analysis has been redacted from this marking however, wave-by-wave analysis will be tracked via link in bio).
TATA Consumer Products ReversalThe stock has reached lower trendline and may undergo a reversal rally. Trade is supported by brokerage calls and Supports Nearby.
Risk Reward Ratio - 2:1
SL is placed below support zone & the lower trendline. The target is placed near swing high.
This is a high risk trade as the market is in a overall bearish sentiment. Plan Trades Accordingly.
Siemens ReversalThe stock has reached lower trendline and may undergo a reversal rally. Trade is supported by brokerage calls and Supports Nearby.
Risk Reward Ratio - 2:1
SL is placed below support zone & the lower trendline. The target is placed near swing high.
This is a high risk trade as the market is in a overall bearish sentiment. Plan Trades Accordingly.
Equal Weight Nifty ETF Movement3 shares - Reliance Industries, HDFC Bank and Infosys - weigh almost 30% of the NIFTY 50. These shares have returned anywhere between 18% and 35% in the last 3 years.
Looking at an equal weight Nifty chart can give a useful perspective about NIFTY movements.
As seen in the chart, NIFTY went nowhere for almost 6 years from April 2015. It only surpassed those April 2015 levels in January 2021. The former highs were retested in April 2021, and like a charm, the former resistance became the new support.
Get information about NFTY ETF from First Trust below.
Small caps testing a critical support levelSince 2005, the IWM/SPY ratio has held this key support level 6 times. This support failed only once, in the midst of the Covid-19 pandemic. Now we find out whether the pandemic was the exception that proves the rule, or whether the pandemic structurally changed something about the relationship between small caps and large caps.
Small cap valuations look better than large caps
Check out page two of the latest Yardeni report titled "Selected P/E Ratios." They've got forward P/E charts for large caps, mid caps, and small caps, showing that forward P/E for large caps is still extended well above its historical range, whereas forward P/E for small caps has corrected sharply down back into its normal range of the last 20 years. In fact, we're well below the price multiple that small caps traded at throughout 2017.
www.yardeni.com
Large caps just touched a strong resistance level
The Nasdaq index, heavily weighted toward large-cap tech stocks like Apple and Facebook, just touched 15,000 and seemingly got rejected from that level.
Large cap tech has benefited from soaring bond prices, but bonds seem to be meeting some resistance after this month's large inflation surprises. The Fed is doing its best to support bond prices with a "jawboning" campaign, but they've got a tough row to hoe after those inflation reports.
Large cap tech also faces a bipartisan push in Congress for antitrust legislation. Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Google, and Microsoft are among the names that may be affected if such legislation goes through. Of course, Tesla is also getting some bad press from the Solar City trial. So it's possible we will see the beginning of a real Nasdaq/S&P 500 correction here.
How I'm playing it
When I say I think small caps will hold this support, I don't necessarily mean that small caps will make gains. Only that they will make relative gains. That could happen by large caps and small caps selling off together, but small caps selling off more slowly. Or it could happen by small caps trading sideways as large caps sell off. In general, small caps have made their largest gains when large caps are going up, not when large caps are going down.
So one way to play this support level is with a two-tailed bet: long small caps, short large caps. Personally I am long a few select small cap names. I like Allison Transmission because of soaring car prices, and I like the KRE regional banking ETF because bonds look like they may have hit a ceiling, and because small lending banks tend to trade inversely with bonds. To hedge my rate bet, I'm also long on small cap gold miners, which should benefit if bonds continue to go up.
(I'm also long on homebuilders KB Home and MDC Holdings, although the homebuilder sector is struggling a bit due to backlogs, labor shortages, materials costs, buyer reluctance, and rising rates on 5/1 ARMs. I love the valuations on these two stocks, but I won't be surprised if that trade continues to go against me here.)
For the large cap short, I'm trying to be a little careful, because the big tech companies' earnings are coming up. I think I may wait to see what the results are before I take that leg of the bet. It would be easy to get wiped out by a big tech earnings beat. For now I've just grabbed some UVXY shares.
As always, this is just an idea and not investing advice. Good luck!
GRASIMAfter reversing from a Bullish AB=CD it formed a Cup and Handle pattern which is indicating continuation of rally towards 1550/1625 & 1700 which also happens to be a trendline monthly resistance as long as it sustains above 1420. Breakout gets stronger on hourly close above 1490 else one can use dips if any till 1450-1435 for an entry.
Cup & Handle Patterns are bullish continuation patterns found in uptrends (Source: Investopedia)
A cup and handle price pattern on a security's price chart is a technical indicator that resembles a cup with a handle, where the cup is in the shape of a "u" and the handle has a slight downward drift. The cup and handle is considered a bullish signal, with the right-hand side of the pattern typically experiencing lower trading volume. The pattern's formation may be as short as seven weeks or as long as 65 weeks.
FSRX - Get's a buy signal as long as $6.27 holdsThe 12 million loss is nothing to be concerned with. This stock should see new highs in this next coming quarter when we find out who their major Japanese auto manufacturer is revealed! Autonomous driving is a hot sector to have in your portfolio. I got some of this in my 2-5 year folio. I could see this stock going to the $4 range if we break the $6 price on the daily.
Sector Indices vs ASX All Ords show earlier Aug deteriorationSector Indices vs ASX All Ordinaries Index show earlier deterioration of the market throughout August (whereas XJO only starts to deteriorate from Aug 28): in the largest 20 companies of the XTL index, in Communications XTJ, Resources XJR, Materials XMJ, Financials XXJ, Consumer Staples XSJ, Utilities XUJ. See next "Idea" for the sectors that prevented the XJO from slumping early.