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Oracle’s Cloud Conquest|Climbing Mount Hyperscaler with AI BootsWill Oracle Cloud Infrastructure aka OCI Emerge as the 4th Hyperscaler? Although OCI hasn’t yet reached the scale of the top three cloud giants (AWS, Azure, GCP), it’s rapidly advancing, much like d’Artagnan joining the musketeers. Riding the AI wave, Oracle’s Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS) segment surged by 52% to $2.4 billion in Q2. Over the past year, OCI has overtaken Salesforce and IBM, surpassing even Snowflake. Its next target, Alibaba Cloud, grew just 7% YoY to $4.2 billion in Q3. However, this impressive growth comes at a price—Oracle’s capital expenditure is expected to double in FY25 to meet AI demand. Oracle Q2 FY25 Highlights Key Metrics -Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO): A measure of future revenue from existing contracts. RPO grew 50% YoY, with Cloud RPO jumping nearly 80%, reflecting strong momentum. Sequentially, total RPO declined slightly from $99 billion in Q1 to $97 billion in Q2. 39% of this is expected to convert into revenue over the next year. -Cloud Services Revenue: Up 24% YoY to $5.9 billion: -IaaS: Grew 52% YoY to $2.4 billion, up from 45% in Q1, driven by OCI adoption for high-performance workloads and multi-cloud deployments. -SaaS: Increased 10% YoY to $3.5 billion, with stable demand for cloud-based ERP, HCM, and CRM solutions. - Fusion Cloud ERP: Gained 18% YoY to $0.9 billion. -NetSuite Cloud ERP: Rose 19% YoY to $0.9 billion. - Total Revenue: Increased 9% YoY to $14.1 billion, missing estimates by $20 million. -Cloud Services & License Support: Up 12% YoY to $10.8 billion, with cloud services alone growing 24% YoY to $5.9 billion. -Cloud License & On-Premise: Up 1% YoY to $1.2 billion. -Hardware: Declined 4% YoY to $0.7 billion. -Services: Dropped 3% YoY to $1.3 billion. -Margins: Gross margin held steady at 71%, while operating margin improved 2 percentage points to 30%. -Non-GAAP EPS:$1.47, missing estimates by $0.01 Cash Flow & Balance Sheet -Operating Cash Flow (TTM):** $20.3 billion (+19% YoY). - Cash & Cash Equivalents:** $11.3 billion. -Debt: $88.6 billion. Q3 FY25 Guidance - Revenue growth of 7%-9% YoY (10% expected). - Cloud revenue projected to grow 25%-27% YoY, accelerating further. Analysis and Insights 1.Momentum in Cloud Infrastructure Oracle’s focus on AI workloads is paying off, with major clients like Meta, Uber, and TikTok driving GPU consumption up by 336%. The company also unveiled the largest AI supercomputer, featuring 65,000 NVIDIA H200 GPUs. However, a potential TikTok ban in the U.S. could pose a $2 billion revenue risk. 2.Growth Despite Missed Targets While revenue and adjusted earnings missed estimates due to slower SaaS growth, cloud revenue of $5.9 billion was just shy of the $6 billion forecast. Shares dipped post-earnings but remain up nearly 70% year-to-date, exceeding most investors' expectations 3.Capex Surge for AI Capital expenditures reached $4 billion this quarter, a sharp increase from under $7 billion in FY24. Management expects FY25 Capex to double, driven by AI demand, resulting in negative free cash flow ($2.7 billion used) for the quarter. These investments align with industry trends but may stretch the balance sheet. 4.Expanding Multi Cloud Partnerships Oracle’s partnerships with Meta, AWS, Azure, and Google Cloud enhance its relevance in multi-cloud environments. These alliances enable seamless workload interoperability and help Oracle compete effectively while broadening its customer base. 5.Balance Sheet Challenges Oracle’s net debt of $80 billion, despite robust $20 billion annual operating cash flow, restricts its ability to pursue aggressive growth strategies or acquisitions. Rising Capex could further limit flexibility. 6.Bullish Long-Term Outlook Management projects total cloud revenue to exceed $25 billion in FY25, fueled by AI demand and OCI’s competitive positioning. Analysts remain optimistic about Oracle’s prospects, particularly in multi-cloud ecosystems and generative AI workloads. This explains why Larry Ellison envisions Oracle’s data centers expanding tenfold
NYSE:ORCL
by moonypto
Oracle Corporation | ORCL & Ai If there is one person that you can compare it with Tony Stark aka IRON MAN is Larry Ellison the ruthless entrepreneur who is born to win and be the number 1. Since the close of trading Friday, Ellison’s net worth has pumped 8 billion dollar to reach $ 206 billion Oracle’s stock has reached new highs following its earnings report last week, which exceeded expectations and raised its revenue forecast for fiscal 2026. Orcl have risen 20% this month and If this upward trend holds, it would mark their best performance since October 2022, when the stock jumped 28%, and the second best month since October 2002, nearly two decades ago. The company’s stock success is partly driven by its involvement in the booming artificial intelligence sector. Ellison, Oracle’s founder since 1977, mentioned in last week’s earnings call that the company is building data centers to meet the growing demand for generative AI. “We are literally building the smallest, most portable, most affordable cloud data centers all the way up to 200 megawatt data centers, ideal for training very large language models and keeping them up to date,” Larry said during the call also he recently mentioned that Elon Musk and I ‘begged’ Jensen Huang for GPUs over dinner!We need you to take more of our money please!! It went ok. I mean, it worked! Oracle also announced last week a partnership with Amazon’s cloud computing division to run its database services on dedicated hardware. Over the past year, it has formed similar alliances with Microsoft and Google, two other major cloud infrastructure providers Oracle's cloud services are a key driver of their success, with revenue from this division growing 21% year over year, reaching $5.6 billion in quarterly earnings Oracle is becoming a crucial provider, acting like a foundational layer for AI-focused companies. Their database systems are now critical to supporting businesses like OpenAI, AWS, and Google Cloud in building the infrastructure for future AI advancements. Despite AWS and Google Cloud being direct competitors, Oracle’s software remains essential to AI’s future. Oracle's technology plays a foundational role, much like GPUs have in AI development. As companies seek efficient cloud-database solutions for AI workloads, Oracle is well-positioned to fulfill this demand. Considering their strong Q1 performance and the central role of their database software in this field, I now view Oracle as a strong buy. The company's AI-powered cloud solutions, strategic partnerships, and growing database market make their technology indispensable for the future of AI Oracle’s fiscal Q1 for FY 2025 exceeded expectations, with non GAAP earnings per share (EPS) of $1.39, surpassing estimates by $0.06, and revenue hitting $13.3 billion, outperforming projections by $60 million. The cloud segment, which includes their AI database software, remains a significant growth driver, generating $5.6 billion in revenue. Most of Oracle’s revenue came from the Americas, contributing $8.3 billion, a 6.9% year-over-year increase. The AI revolution, gaining momentum in the US, aligns with their strong revenue growth in this region. During the Q1 earnings call, management emphasized their expanded partnerships with major tech companies like Google Cloud (Alphabet Inc) and AWS (Amazon), which are notable given that they are also competitors. Oracle highlighted its success in the AI training space, pointing to the construction of large data centers equipped with ultra-high-performance RDMA networks and 32,000-node NVIDIA GPU clusters. In the EMEA region, crucial to Oracle’s growth due to rising demand for cloud infrastructure and AI solutions among European enterprises and governments (sovereign AI), the company reported $3.3 billion in revenue. Oracle’s earnings per share aka EPS is projected to grow at a compound annual rate of 13.5% for FY 2025, increasing to 14.41% in FY 2026, and continuing to compound at a modest double-digit rate in the coming years. While these projections show strong potential for Oracle to be a compounder, I believe they may be somewhat conservative. The company’s remaining performance obligations (RPO) jumped 53% year-over-year to $99 billion by the end of the first fiscal quarter, indicating that their pipeline of signed work is growing faster than revenue. Once Oracle scales its solutions and workforce to match this RPO growth, we could see both revenue and EPS accelerate further. In fact, while Oracle’s forward revenue growth is projected at just 8.86% for the next 12 months, their backlog is growing by over 50%. This suggests a notable gap between revenue expectations and actual demand. I believe the current revenue growth projections are too low, and once revised upward, they could become a key growth catalyst for the company. As for Oracle’s valuation, its forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio stands at 24.74, which is just 6.76% above the sector median of 23.17. However, given Oracle’s growth potential, I think it warrants a P/E ratio closer to 30.12, which is roughly 30% above the sector median. This would imply an additional 21.75% upside for the stock, excluding dividends. With a forward P/E ratio only slightly above the sector median, despite Oracle’s impressive growth, the company’s performance suggests the stock should be trading at a higher valuation. Larry Ellison is the man that I always can trust his vision and always bullish on his spirit and his ambitious. Oracle expanding influence in AI, coupled with robust revenue growth, positions the stock for significant upside. AI is like a modern day Gold Rush, and Oracle, much like GPU makers, is providing the essential tools the "pickaxe" for AI companies so That’s a space I’m eager to invest in the chart looks insane and if there will be pullback I consider it as a buy opportunity
NYSE:ORCLLong
by moonypto