Get started

Latinamerica

USD/Latin American currencies poised to reboundWe have in Red (USDBRL) and Orange (USDCLP) the two strongest currency in latin american recovering from recent devaluation in a pronounced way in comparison with Dolar Index (Green). But fiscal situation in Brazil is getting worse, the political problem after impeachment of last president is to approve a series of bills to cut social expenditure like Health and Education, while continuing rolling over debt. Debt-to-GDP ratio is getting to 70% this year, in 2014 it was 55% showing significant deterioration. While Business Confident Index (BCI-OCDE) improved this year, I have no reasons to believe it will last, in my vision is more related to a psychological vision that impeachment will bring structural changes, but the new goverment don't discard raise taxes. In Chile (USDCLP) on the other hand, without impeachment, has the worst BCI in the world right now. showing the profound crises Latin American is facing. With all the majors countries in crises Mercosur business is stagnated. Time to LONG Latin American Pairs. Sources: Debt-to-GDB Brazil: BCB 2016 BCI-OCDE: data.oecd.org
Long
by Lavenderroute
3
RunningAlpha Upgrades Commodity Markets Update to Priority ListRunningAlpha dot com Capital Markets Intelligence High Priority Update for Monday, May 2nd, 2016 Although $39 and $36.50 remains baseline intermediate to long-term support for Light Crude Oil ( in reference to June Contract Pricing ), the recent advance upwards has opened the door for a further short covering rally upwards to $62 to $65, and perhaps $74 to $76 levels if on a spike. Bullish window for buying on dips extends into at least June period -- this also applies to Brent Crude. Russian Stock Market ( $RSX ) looks bullish during this period. Oil and Gas Drilling stocks will likely continue higher on balance -- particularly a core position in stocks like $PBR.A would be sensible, which should also benefit from a continued bullish run in Brazilian Equities ( which I expect Brazilian equities should trend higher into the summer, and again later in the fall to close out the year much higher ). Among many other equities in Latin America, $ARCO and $KOF also have a strong bullish bias with sentiment conviction windows extending into foreseeable future. Other Commodity Markets showing very significant sentiment strength going forward are in the Agricultural complex -- Soybean, particularly Soybean Meal $SOYB, Rice, Corn $CORN, Cotton $BAL and Coffee ( $JO is ETF -- when above $18.02 and especially when trading above above $19.00, then $27 is interim target ), and even wheat to some degree. Equities that would benefit from a rise in these commodity markets should have a tail-wind. Silver and Gold stocks, which RunningAlpha.com has been bullish on for a few months now, still shows signs of strength on pullbacks. Sourced from premium sentiment conviction list on RunningAlpha dot com
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by runningalpha
Emerging Markets...Time to Emerge??I see 2 possibilities,1) a retracement into the box area, testing the neckline, and then a trust higher.2) Or a larger inverse Head and shoulder formation , which would be a stronger reversal pattern. I like the latin america over india because of a bullish MACD divergence on LBJ/ILF. I think Inverse H&S would create some fakeout for the bulls, before actually thrusting higher. Also an inverse H&S will be much more prominent on a weekly chart.
LLong
by aravindran1